flash talk: building for emerging computing platforms

Flash Talk: Building for Emerging Computing Platforms

Sarah Guo

There are only five publicly traded tech companies created since 2000 that are now worth more than $10B.

Greylock backed four of them.

$10 Billion

4 5:

At Greylock, we partner with extraordinary founders building enduring, multi-billion dollar businesses.

New computing waves are rare.

PC Internet Cloud MobileSocial

Startups can ride (and shape) these waves early to become special companies.


It’s challenging for existing winners to catch the next wave.


What’s next?


?

Apps on flat 4.7” screens are a (powerful) imposed constraint, introduced by a single company.

Now, many companies working outside of those constraints.

We have a sudden diversity of new computing devices (VR, AR, Robotics, Connected Cars and IoT).

2D —> 3D. Flat —> Immersive. One device —> Many. Computing everywhere.

But, your VR app will not be

Smartphone 3.3B

PC (55% Laptop) 1.5B

Some numbers to orient you WW Installed Base (2016)

Game Console

270MPC

Gaming 100M

VR ??

It will take time

estimates range from 1-5M HMDs in

‘16, (ymmv)

>2 orders of magnitude

less vs. smartphones

Biz. models for content on phones will not work for VR(in the short term)

~2B

And not all hardware adopted equally

Still not muchof a market Maybe the beginning

of a very big market LOL

Some things that change the curve

Positional tracking + sufficient fps on mobile

Compelling content w/ distribution not blocked by 1:1 hardware adoption

Capture/post-processing tech that improves UGC quality

Forming your view of adoptionASP matters. Dependencies matter. Real ASP of Rift/Vive = $600+$1,000 for PC Who will push/subsidize? Samsung giving away GearVR.

Best experience != largest hardware volume Volume is 🔑 What experience is “better enough”?

Catch-22

We are very early

API’s still fluidBetter hardware coming UX metaphors unclear

… Stay flexible

Don’t over-optimize

Be intellectually honest about quality of experience

Survive the adoption period (1/4)Modalities:Is it better with VR, or only with VR? Mobile web players? Can your content be experienced without hardware? How will it be consumed in shared spaces?

Survive the adoption period (2/4)Enterprise:Can you sell to motivated buyers at lower volumes?

Breaks piggy bank, buys cardboard to play 360 cat videos.

Recaptures $B of value in property discounts to remote buyers.

Survive the adoption period (3/4)

Partnerships:Cash-rich platforms seeking compelling experiences, want to show off new capabilities, and big publishers not yet investing

Brands are willing to pay for “agency” work — pros and cons, can be a trap

🤑🤑

Survive the adoption period (4/4)

CapitalPace of team growth/spend should match milestones

Venture funding? - What’s the case to invest now? Why not in 6-12m? - What’s the defensible land grab? - What are your adoption goals? Units —> Users —> $

Leverage “alternative” funding sources (partners, customers) — sometimes a boon, sometimes a trap

TL;DRThis is tricky. Too early, and you may run out of $. Too late, and you may miss some opportunities

Not all gloom and doom — consumer computing adoption cycles have been compressing

Apple drove smartphone adoption — several players focused on VR

2016/2017 pivotal year

Years to 40% Adoption

15

10

5

Source: MIT Tech Review

Thank you.

www.greylock.com

@GreylockVC

medium.com/@GreylockVC

Follow Greylock:

@saranormous

Sarah Guo

Contact me:

[email protected]

flash talk: building for emerging computing platforms

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