fitch ratings, inc. 2015 form nrsro annual certification exhibit 1
TRANSCRIPT
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
2015 Form NRSRO Annual Certification
Exhibit 1. Credit Ratings Performance Statistics.
Fitch makes information pursuant to the requirements of 17 CFR 17g-2(d) publicly available at
the following web address:
http://www.fitchratings.com/web/en/dynamic/about-us/regulatory-disclosures-and-
commentary.jsp
The files containing the information can be found at the above web address by clicking on the
links titled “Fitch Ratings History Sample” and “Complete Rating History Disclosure.”
Please find attached the following ratings performance reports. These documents can also be
accessed at the following web address via the link on the left entitled “Rating Transition &
Default Studies”.
http://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/marketfocus/MarketFocus.faces?marketFocusArea=CreditMark
etResearch&selectedTab=Research&selectedLeftNav=all
1) Fitch Ratings Global Corporate Finance 2014 Transition and Default Study, which was
published in March 2015. The methodology used to determine the performance statistics
contained within this report can be found on page 5. This report contains separate
information regarding performance of ratings in the Corporates (Industrials), Financial
Institutions and Insurance categories (see pages 9-14).
2) Fitch Ratings Global Structured Finance 2014 Transition and Default Study, published in
March 2015. The methodology used to determine the performance statistics contained
within this report can be found beginning on page 10.
3) Fitch Ratings Global Sovereign 2014 Transition and Default Study, which was published
in March 2015. The methodology used to determine the performance statistics contained
within this report can be found beginning on page 4.
4) Fitch Ratings International Public Finance 2014 Transition and Default Study, which was
published in March 2015. The methodology used to determine the performance statistics
contained within this report can be found beginning on page 4.
5) Fitch Ratings U.S. Public Finance 2014 Transition and Default Study, was published in
March 2015. The methodology used to determine the performance statistics contained
within this report can be found beginning on page 3.
For completeness, please see our ratings definitions at:
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/public/ratings_defintions/index.cfm under the heading at
the top left titled “Rating Definitions.”
1
Glo
bal
Co
rpo
rate
Fin
ance
20
14 T
ran
siti
on
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
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as
ure
d
Sta
bil
ity
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tch
’s
glo
bal
co
rpo
rate
Mix
ed
R
eg
ion
al
Ac
tiv
ity
:
FI/
Ind
us
tria
ls
Div
ide
d:
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erg
ing
M
ark
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s.
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lop
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ark
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ate
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w i
n 2
01
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Ch
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m
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my
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20
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Fin
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sit
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: 20
14
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AA
AA
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BB
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BC
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to
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A
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Fin
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ce
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ge
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nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
90
-20
14
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AA
AA
AB
BB
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BC
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A
AA
ACo
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
His
tori
ca
l De
fau
lts
an
d R
ate
s
20
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Tra
nsi
tio
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atr
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gio
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s:
Em
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pe
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en
ds
:
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al
De
fau
lt R
ate
s:
Glo
bal
Co
rpo
rate
Fin
ance
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
1%
7%
Fin
an
cia
l In
sti
tuti
on
Is
su
er
De
fau
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ate
s
Fin
an
cia
l In
sti
tuti
on
sa O
ne
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ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A
AA
A a
Fin
an
cia
l In
sti
tuti
on
s R
ati
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ity
Fin
an
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l In
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tuti
on
s A
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y I
mp
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: Fo
r
So
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A
Sin
gle
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ina
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titu
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bal
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al In
stit
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s
Fin
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cia
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sti
tuti
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ve
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nn
ua
l Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 1
99
0-2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A
AA
A a
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
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n a
nd
De
fau
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tud
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.
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su
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ate
s
Ind
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r T
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sit
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Ma
trix
: 20
14
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AA
AA
AB
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to
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AA
A
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A
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lan
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:
So
ve
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M&
A
Act
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y:
Ind
us
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s:
Glo
bal
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rial
s
In
du
str
ial A
ve
rag
e A
nn
ua
l Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 1
99
0-2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A
AA
A
Glo
ba
l Co
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rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
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n a
nd
De
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y
De
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ate
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. W
ith
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gs
Me
tho
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ba
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Fin
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ce
20
14
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ns
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n a
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De
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lan
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ss
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late
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EXCEL
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
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01
4 T
ran
sit
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a
nd
De
fau
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tud
y
Glo
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ina
nce
20
14
Tra
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an
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Stu
dy
U.S
. Pu
bli
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ina
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20
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Tra
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dy
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nce
20
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an
sit
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an
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ss
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irs
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m
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my
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r
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ph
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ie M
ah
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rate
Fin
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ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
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y
7
Av
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ge
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ve
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ate
s: 1
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4
% O
ne
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A 0
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0
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0
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0
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0
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0
.97
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+ -
-
-
-
-
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0.1
1
0.2
7
0.4
4
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9
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0
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0
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0
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A+
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0.0
9
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9
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0.7
0
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0
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0
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0
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0.1
6
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9
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3
0.5
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0.6
9
2.2
8
BB
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0.1
2
0.2
2
0.4
2
0.7
3
1.0
6
2.0
3
BB
B 0
.09
0
.47
0
.94
1
.50
2
.03
4
.07
BB
B-
0.3
5
0.9
8
1.7
2
2.3
6
3.1
4
7.2
1
BB
+ 0
.77
2
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4
.04
5
.58
6
.83
9
.92
BB
0.6
6
2.2
5
3.9
5
5.5
9
6.9
4
12
.26
BB
- 1
.45
2
.85
4
.03
4
.94
5
.72
8
.67
B+
1.0
4
3.5
7
6.0
1
7.6
4
8.5
9
9.4
3
B 2
.15
4
.90
7
.50
1
0.6
6
13
.61
1
4.8
1
B-
2.7
9
5.0
7
6.6
1
7.1
5
7.9
5
7.8
4
CC
C t
o C
23
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3
0.3
6
34
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3
6.6
4
38
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3
9.8
8
Inv
es
tme
nt
Gra
de
0.1
1
0.3
1
0.5
5
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9
1.0
5
2.1
5
Sp
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ula
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e G
rad
e 2
.74
5
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7
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8
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1
0.1
7
12
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All
Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
0.7
1
1.3
8
1.9
7
2.4
8
2.9
4
3.9
8
So
urc
e: F
itch
10
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ar
Av
era
ge
of
Th
ree
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ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
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BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-
20
03
- 2
01
2 0
.86
-
0
.32
0
.12
0
.18
0
.60
0
.20
0
.07
0
.69
1
.35
2
.36
1
.92
2
.82
5
.59
6
.67
6
.56
So
urc
e: F
itch
Mo
st
Re
ce
nt
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
%A
AA
AA
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AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
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BB
BB
B-
BB
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BB
B-
B+
BB
-
20
12
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.8
7
-
0.6
6
1.8
2
4.6
2
0.6
3
12
.22
20
11
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.3
3
0.5
3
0.5
9
0.6
8
0.8
1
0.8
8
3.4
5
2.6
3
5.4
9
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al C
orp
ora
te F
ina
nc
e D
efa
ult
Ra
tes
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
8
Fit
ch
-ra
ted
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
De
fau
lts
a: 2
01
4
Iss
ue
rR
ati
ng
at
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of
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ar
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ed
in 2
01
4.
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al C
orp
ora
te F
ina
nc
e D
efa
ult
s: 2
01
4
AA
AA
AA
BB
BB
BB
CC
C t
o C
0%
5%
10
%
15
%
20
%
25
%
30
%
35
%
40
%
45
%
AA
AA
AA
BB
BB
BB
CC
C t
o C
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%
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a Year
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d. S
ou
rce
: Fit
cha
bYe
ar-e
nd
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ind
us
tria
l Ra
tin
g M
ix: 2
01
4a
Fin
an
cia
l In
sti
tuti
on
a R
ati
ng
Mix
: 20
14
b
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
9
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
%A
AA
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AA
-B
BB
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BB
BB
B-
BB
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BB
B-
B+
BB
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CC
to
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AA
A 1
00
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-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
6
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
.00
AA
-
-
93
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
.67
AA
- -
-
-
9
3.3
3
6.6
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
4.0
8
91
.84
2
.04
2
.04
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
-
-
1
.03
9
0.7
2
2.0
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.1
9
A-
-
-
-
-
-
2.3
6
83
.46
1
1.0
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.1
5
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.6
0
81
.13
2
.83
1
.89
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
.55
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
0
.42
5
.42
7
7.9
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11
.25
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.5
8
75
.83
3
.79
0
.47
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2.3
2
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
3.0
4
60
.87
6
.09
0
.87
-
-
-
-
-
1
9.1
3
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.9
1
6.3
6
66
.36
4
.55
-
-
-
-
-
2
1.8
2
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
3.2
7
68
.37
3
.06
-
-
-
-
1
5.3
1
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.0
2
8.1
6
65
.31
4
.08
1
.02
2
.04
2
.04
1
6.3
3
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.16
-
-
-
-
1
1.6
3
59
.30
8
.14
3
.49
1
.16
1
5.1
2
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.1
7
29
.17
5
0.0
0
8.3
3
8.3
3
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.8
5
-
3.8
5
53
.85
2
3.0
8
15
.38
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al I
nd
us
tria
ls T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 3
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
66
.67
AA
+ -
3
3.3
3
33
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3.3
3
AA
-
-
61
.54
-
-
7
.69
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
0.7
7
AA
- -
-
1
2.5
0
50
.00
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
12
.50
A+
-
-
-
19
.30
5
9.6
5
7.0
2
5.2
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.7
7
A -
-
-
-
3
.79
5
4.5
5
24
.24
3
.03
-
-
-
0
.76
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
3.6
4
A-
-
-
-
-
-
6.0
9
51
.30
2
6.0
9
5.2
2
0.8
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
.43
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
1.1
6
9.8
8
62
.21
7
.56
5
.81
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
3.3
7
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
0
.93
1
6.3
6
50
.93
7
.94
2
.34
1
.87
0
.47
-
-
-
-
-
1
9.1
6
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.2
3
19
.64
4
1.5
2
7.5
9
1.7
9
1.7
9
-
-
-
0.8
9
-
24
.55
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8
.91
1
7.8
2
26
.73
1
0.8
9
3.9
6
3.9
6
-
0.9
9
-
-
26
.73
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.1
5
18
.56
2
8.8
7
5.1
5
4.1
2
-
-
2.0
6
1.0
3
35
.05
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.45
-
4
.35
1
7.3
9
33
.33
5
.80
1
.45
2
.90
1
.45
2
.90
2
8.9
9
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.0
9
-
2.1
7
10
.87
2
0.6
5
2.1
7
1.0
9
3.2
6
6.5
2
52
.17
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
.93
-
-
-
2
.80
1
0.2
8
26
.17
4
.67
1
4.9
5
0.9
3
39
.25
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.3
3
-
6.9
8
11
.63
2
.33
2
.33
2
0.9
3
53
.49
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.6
9
-
11
.54
2
6.9
2
34
.62
1
9.2
3
So
urc
e: F
itch
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
10
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 2
0.0
0
20
.00
2
0.0
0
-
20
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
AA
+ -
-
2
5.0
0
-
25
.00
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
25
.00
AA
-
-
25
.00
-
1
6.6
7
25
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3.3
3
AA
- -
3
.57
7
.14
7
.14
2
1.4
3
28
.57
1
0.7
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
21
.43
A+
-
-
-
2.3
5
7.0
6
25
.88
1
8.8
2
10
.59
1
.18
1
.18
-
4
.71
-
-
1
.18
-
-
-
2
7.0
6
A -
-
-
-
1.6
9
11
.02
9
.32
1
4.4
1
8.4
7
0.8
5
0.8
5
0.8
5
0.8
5
-
-
-
-
0.8
5
50
.85
A-
-
- -
0
.79
1
.59
4
.76
1
5.8
7
22
.22
8
.73
4
.76
-
-
-
0
.79
-
-
-
-
4
0.4
8
BB
B+
-
- -
-
0
.71
6
.38
7
.80
2
1.9
9
9.9
3
9.9
3
4.9
6
2.1
3
-
-
-
-
0.7
1
-
35
.46
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
2
.42
6
.67
1
5.7
6
15
.15
9
.70
3
.03
0
.61
0
.61
1
.21
0
.61
-
-
1
.82
4
2.4
2
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.4
2
8.8
5
9.7
3
5.3
1
2.6
5
1.7
7
-
-
0.8
8
-
0.8
8
7.0
8
58
.41
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
1
.67
1
.67
5
.00
1
0.0
0
3.3
3
3.3
3
3.3
3
1.6
7
3.3
3
1.6
7
1.6
7
3.3
3
3.3
3
56
.67
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.2
5
3.7
5
8.7
5
8.7
5
5.0
0
3.7
5
6.2
5
2.5
0
1.2
5
-
3.7
5
3.7
5
51
.25
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
1
.61
-
-
8
.06
4
.84
4
.84
3
.23
6
.45
-
4
.84
-
-
-
6
6.1
3
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.0
0
6.0
0
4.0
0
-
2.0
0
2.0
0
-
-
2.0
0
8.0
0
74
.00
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.56
2
.56
7
.69
2
.56
-
2
.56
-
1
7.9
5
64
.10
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.0
0
4.0
0
-
-
4.0
0
-
-
8.0
0
-
-
8.0
0
72
.00
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.9
4
8.8
2
2.9
4
-
-
44
.12
4
1.1
8
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al I
nd
us
tria
ls T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
an
d D
efa
ult
Ra
tes
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
AA
A -
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
AA
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
A+
-
-
-
A -
-
0
.85
A-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
1
.82
BB
B-
-
-
8.7
7
BB
+ -
-
5
.00
BB
-
1.0
3
3.7
0
BB
- -
2
.90
-
B+
2.0
4
6.5
2
8.0
0
B 1
.16
0
.93
1
7.9
5
B-
8.3
3
20
.93
8
.00
CC
C t
o C
23
.08
3
4.6
2
44
.12
So
urc
e: F
itch
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
11
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
9
8.4
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.5
9
A+
-
-
-
2.2
0
93
.41
1
.10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
.30
A -
-
-
-
-
9
6.4
0
-
-
-
0.7
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.8
8
A-
-
-
-
-
1.0
3
7.2
2
86
.60
1
.03
-
2
.06
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.06
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.0
2
72
.81
1
2.2
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.8
9
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
1
.91
1
0.8
3
71
.97
7
.64
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
.64
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.7
0
-
9.1
5
83
.10
1
.41
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.63
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
4.8
6
75
.68
4
.05
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.41
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.0
9
72
.73
9
.09
-
-
-
-
-
9
.09
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.38
2
.38
8
3.3
3
4.7
6
-
-
-
-
7.1
4
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11
.43
7
1.4
3
8.5
7
-
5.7
1
-
2.8
6
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.2
0
67
.35
4
.08
6
.12
-
1
2.2
4
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.0
8
14
.58
3
9.5
8
27
.08
-
1
6.6
7
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
20
.00
6
0.0
0
20
.00
-
a e
xclu
de
s In
sura
nce
. So
urc
e: F
itch
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 7
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
25
.00
AA
+ -
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
11
.11
7
7.7
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11
.11
AA
- -
-
-
6
0.8
7
11
.59
1
.45
2
.90
1
.45
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
1.7
4
A+
-
-
-
7.1
4
58
.93
1
6.9
6
2.6
8
1.7
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
12
.50
A -
-
-
-
3
.50
6
7.1
3
6.2
9
2.8
0
3.5
0
0.7
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.08
A-
-
-
-
-
3.6
7
11
.01
4
8.6
2
15
.60
5
.50
4
.59
-
-
-
-
0
.92
-
-
-
1
0.0
9
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
0.9
5
8.5
7
40
.00
1
4.2
9
3.8
1
3.8
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
28
.57
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
3
.27
1
5.0
3
38
.56
1
1.7
6
1.3
1
2.6
1
1.9
6
-
-
0.6
5
-
-
24
.84
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.7
9
2.6
8
20
.54
5
3.5
7
2.6
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.6
8
16
.07
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
2.3
1
44
.62
6
.15
1
.54
1
.54
-
-
-
-
1
3.8
5
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.8
9
18
.87
1
6.9
8
33
.96
5
.66
-
3
.77
-
1
.89
-
1
6.9
8
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
.32
7
.32
3
4.1
5
9.7
6
2.4
4
-
-
-
39
.02
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.4
1
2.7
0
27
.03
2
7.0
3
10
.81
2
.70
5
.41
-
1
8.9
2
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
.92
1
5.6
9
27
.45
-
1
9.6
1
-
33
.33
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.1
3
-
23
.40
3
1.9
1
6.3
8
4.2
6
31
.91
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.3
3
-
-
-
-
8.3
3
16
.67
1
6.6
7
25
.00
2
5.0
0
a exc
lud
es
Insu
ran
ce. S
ou
rce
: Fit
ch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: F
itc
h G
lob
al F
ina
nc
ial I
ns
titu
tio
na T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
12
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 1
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.5
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.5
0
80
.00
AA
+ -
2
.78
2
.78
2
.78
-
3
6.1
1
5.5
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
AA
-
-
2.3
8
30
.95
2
.38
1
6.6
7
-
4.7
6
2.3
8
-
2.3
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
38
.10
AA
- -
-
-
1
8.7
1
8.6
3
17
.27
2
.88
2
.88
1
.44
0
.72
1
.44
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
6.0
4
A+
-
-
-
4.3
5
19
.13
9
.57
3
.48
3
.48
2
.61
-
1
.74
-
-
-
0
.87
-
-
1
.74
5
3.0
4
A -
-
-
2
.60
6
.49
8
.44
6
.49
4
.55
1
.30
1
.30
1
.95
0
.65
2
.60
-
0
.65
-
-
3
.25
5
9.7
4
A-
-
-
-
0.7
4
10
.29
8
.82
9
.56
7
.35
3
.68
5
.88
0
.74
2
.21
1
.47
-
-
2
.21
-
0
.74
4
6.3
2
BB
B+
-
-
-
0.9
5
2.8
6
7.6
2
7.6
2
5.7
1
8.5
7
14
.29
0
.95
0
.95
2
.86
-
-
0
.95
1
.90
0
.95
4
3.8
1
BB
B -
-
-
-
0
.64
1
.92
5
.77
7
.69
1
1.5
4
8.9
7
-
1.2
8
-
0.6
4
-
1.2
8
-
6.4
1
53
.85
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.2
3
11
.83
1
1.8
3
10
.75
3
.23
2
.15
-
-
1
.08
-
-
2
.15
5
3.7
6
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.26
1
3.1
6
-
2.6
3
-
-
5.2
6
-
-
10
.53
6
3.1
6
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.8
5
-
11
.54
1
1.5
4
-
-
3.8
5
-
3.8
5
3.8
5
61
.54
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
3
.23
9
.68
6
.45
9
.68
3
.23
9
.68
-
-
-
-
-
3
.23
5
4.8
4
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.2
5
31
.25
2
.08
-
-
-
2
.08
2
.08
1
0.4
2
6.2
5
39
.58
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.00
-
-
-
-
1
5.0
0
-
5.0
0
-
10
.00
6
5.0
0
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.7
0
11
.11
7
.41
1
8.5
2
3.7
0
11
.11
-
4
4.4
4
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.2
5
6.2
5
6.2
5
6.2
5
6.2
5
12
.50
5
6.2
5
a exc
lud
es
Insu
ran
ce. S
ou
rce
: Fit
ch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al F
ina
nc
ial I
ns
titu
tio
ns
a T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
an
d D
efa
ult
Ra
tes
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
AA
A -
-
2
.50
AA
+ -
-
-
AA
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
A+
-
-
1.7
2
A -
-
3
.25
A-
-
-
0.7
4
BB
B+
-
-
0.9
5
BB
B -
-
7
.05
BB
B-
-
2.6
8
2.1
5
BB
+ -
-
1
0.5
3
BB
-
-
3.8
5
BB
- -
-
3
.23
B+
-
-
6.2
5
B -
-
1
0.0
0
B-
-
4.2
6
-
CC
C t
o C
20
.00
2
5.0
0
12
.50
a e
xclu
de
s In
sura
nce
. So
urc
e: F
itch
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
13
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
AA
+ -
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
3.7
0
85
.19
3
.70
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
.41
A -
-
-
-
5
.88
8
5.2
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.8
2
A-
-
-
-
-
-
6.6
7
83
.33
6
.67
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
.33
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
24
.14
6
8.9
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.9
0
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
8
.33
7
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.67
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
33
.33
5
5.5
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11
.11
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3.3
3
-
66
.67
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
AA
+ -
7
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
25
.00
AA
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
9
1.6
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.3
3
A+
-
-
-
11
.11
7
0.3
7
3.7
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
14
.81
A -
-
-
-
8
.11
6
4.8
6
2.7
0
5.4
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
18
.92
A-
-
-
-
-
-
8.8
2
41
.18
8
.82
5
.88
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
5.2
9
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
22
.86
3
1.4
3
-
2.8
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
42
.86
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
3
.33
1
0.0
0
16
.67
2
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
33
.33
4
4.4
4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
22
.22
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
0.0
0
40
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
-
50
.00
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al I
ns
ura
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
14
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A -
8
.33
-
1
6.6
7
-
-
25
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
AA
+ -
2
0.0
0
20
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
0.0
0
AA
-
-
-
37
.50
1
2.5
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
AA
- -
-
-
9
.09
3
1.8
2
9.0
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
A+
-
-
-
3.0
3
12
.12
1
5.1
5
3.0
3
3.0
3
3.0
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
60
.61
A -
-
-
3
.23
3
.23
2
2.5
8
19
.35
-
3
.23
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
8.3
9
A-
-
-
-
7.1
4
17
.86
7
.14
3
.57
1
7.8
6
3.5
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
42
.86
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
10
.00
1
0.0
0
10
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
0.0
0
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.0
0
25
.00
5
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.00
5
5.0
0
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
5.8
8
17
.65
1
7.6
5
5.8
8
5.8
8
5.8
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
41
.18
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
80
.00
BB
-
-
-
-
16
.67
-
-
-
-
-
1
6.6
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
66
.67
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3.3
3
-
-
33
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3.3
3
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al I
ns
ura
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
an
d D
efa
ult
Ra
tes
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
AA
A -
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
AA
-
-
25
.00
AA
- -
-
-
A+
-
-
3.0
3
A -
-
-
A-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
5
.00
BB
B-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
BB
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
3
3.3
3
B+
-
-
-
B -
-
-
B-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
10
0.0
0
So
urc
e: F
itch
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
15
Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
90
-20
14
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 8
7.1
8
3.0
9
1.8
8
0.3
3
0.1
1
-
0.1
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
1
7.1
8
AA
+ 0
.53
7
8.3
2
10
.64
3
.68
0
.39
0
.53
0
.13
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.78
AA
0.0
5
2.4
6
75
.30
1
0.3
8
3.9
9
0.5
2
0.1
6
0.2
1
0.0
5
0.1
6
-
-
0.0
5
-
-
-
-
-
6.6
6
AA
- 0
.06
0
.09
2
.97
7
9.2
5
9.4
0
2.4
7
0.6
5
0.1
8
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
3
-
0.0
6
4.6
4
A+
-
0.0
7
0.3
3
4.3
7
77
.64
9
.03
1
.67
0
.57
0
.42
0
.15
-
0
.04
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.71
A 0
.02
-
0
.23
0
.68
4
.76
7
8.9
8
7.7
4
1.4
2
0.7
6
0.2
1
0.1
9
0.0
9
0.0
3
0.0
2
0.0
7
-
0.0
2
0.0
5
4.7
4
A-
-
-
0.1
0
0.2
0
0.8
8
5.8
8
75
.64
9
.13
1
.65
0
.69
0
.12
0
.04
0
.69
-
0
.08
0
.02
0
.08
0
.16
4
.66
BB
B+
-
-
0.0
4
0.1
0
0.3
0
0.7
6
6.5
2
74
.06
8
.61
1
.53
0
.74
0
.18
0
.34
0
.04
0
.10
-
0
.08
0
.12
6
.46
BB
B -
-
0
.07
0
.09
0
.07
0
.28
0
.87
7
.15
7
6.4
6
6.2
6
0.9
9
0.8
4
0.2
3
0.1
7
0.1
7
0.0
3
0.1
9
0.0
9
6.0
3
BB
B-
-
0.0
2
0.0
2
0.0
5
0.1
2
0.0
9
0.2
1
0.9
7
10
.23
7
3.6
6
4.2
6
1.6
2
0.8
3
0.3
2
0.4
4
0.1
9
0.1
2
0.3
5
6.5
0
BB
+ -
0
.09
-
-
0
.05
0
.05
0
.05
0
.41
1
.58
1
3.4
3
65
.07
5
.59
1
.53
0
.81
0
.90
0
.32
0
.68
0
.77
8
.70
BB
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
5
-
0.3
0
0.8
1
2.7
8
11
.11
6
2.7
0
5.9
6
2.7
8
0.9
6
1.2
6
1.5
1
0.6
6
9.1
4
BB
- 0
.05
-
-
-
-
-
0
.05
0
.16
0
.49
0
.65
3
.99
1
1.9
8
58
.99
5
.45
4
.05
1
.13
1
.57
1
.46
9
.98
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
3
0.1
3
0.3
3
0.2
6
2.6
7
14
.16
5
9.3
6
7.8
9
2.6
1
1.9
6
1.0
4
9.4
6
B -
-
-
-
-
0
.18
0
.12
-
0
.06
0
.06
0
.18
0
.68
2
.33
1
3.0
1
60
.34
7
.43
3
.68
2
.15
9
.76
B-
-
-
-
-
-
0.2
5
-
-
0.1
7
0.1
7
0.0
8
0.2
5
0.7
6
2.8
8
13
.56
5
9.0
7
9.1
5
2.8
0
10
.85
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
5
-
0.1
5
0.1
5
0.1
5
1.4
5
1.0
2
2.9
1
13
.08
4
6.0
8
23
.69
1
1.1
9
So
urc
e: F
itch
Fin
an
cia
l In
sti
tuti
on
sa A
ve
rag
e A
nn
ua
l Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 1
99
0-2
01
4
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 8
7.0
6
3.3
8
1.3
2
0.1
5
0.1
5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
5
7.7
9
AA
+ 0
.77
7
5.8
6
11
.88
4
.21
0
.38
0
.19
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
.70
AA
0.0
8
2.8
6
72
.87
1
1.7
6
3.8
4
0.4
5
0.1
5
0.0
8
-
0.0
8
-
-
0.0
8
-
-
-
-
-
7.7
6
AA
- 0
.08
0
.04
3
.05
8
0.6
6
8.4
1
2.1
5
0.4
9
0.1
5
0.1
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
4
-
0.0
8
4.6
7
A+
-
0.1
0
0.4
3
5.1
9
76
.80
8
.25
1
.28
0
.62
0
.36
0
.07
-
0
.03
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
.87
A 0
.03
-
0
.31
0
.95
6
.49
7
7.2
7
7.5
7
1.0
4
0.7
4
0.2
1
0.0
6
0.0
6
-
-
-
-
0.0
3
0.0
9
5.1
5
A-
-
-
0.1
4
0.2
5
1.1
2
6.8
8
74
.00
8
.03
1
.69
0
.65
0
.07
-
1
.22
-
0
.14
0
.04
-
0
.22
5
.55
BB
B+
-
-
0.0
5
0.2
3
0.4
2
0.9
7
8.3
3
69
.80
8
.42
1
.76
1
.25
0
.23
0
.09
0
.05
0
.09
-
0
.05
0
.05
8
.23
BB
B -
-
0
.12
0
.20
0
.12
0
.20
1
.14
7
.98
7
4.4
0
5.9
4
1.1
8
0.8
1
0.0
8
0.1
6
0.0
8
0.0
4
0.3
3
0.1
2
7.0
8
BB
B-
-
0.0
6
0.0
6
0.0
6
0.1
8
0.1
8
0.3
0
1.2
5
10
.73
7
2.0
3
2.9
2
1.7
3
0.8
3
0.4
8
0.6
0
0.4
2
0.0
6
0.4
2
7.6
9
BB
+ -
0
.24
-
-
-
0
.12
-
0
.47
2
.01
1
5.3
7
63
.36
4
.85
1
.06
0
.59
1
.30
0
.24
0
.47
1
.42
8
.51
BB
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
5
-
0.4
6
0.7
6
2.7
4
12
.04
6
2.0
4
4.7
3
1.8
3
0.9
1
1.2
2
3.6
6
0.6
1
8.8
4
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
0
.15
0
.30
0
.15
0
.61
5
.90
1
0.1
4
54
.61
4
.99
5
.14
1
.51
1
.82
1
.36
1
3.3
1
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.3
9
0.2
0
0.9
8
19
.49
5
8.0
7
7.4
8
2.9
5
1.9
7
1.3
8
7.0
9
B -
-
-
-
-
-
0
.36
-
-
0
.18
0
.36
0
.89
2
.14
1
4.2
9
58
.93
8
.21
3
.93
0
.89
9
.82
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.3
6
0.1
8
0.1
8
1.2
7
2.5
4
14
.88
6
2.0
7
7.8
0
0.5
4
10
.16
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.9
4
1.1
0
2.2
1
18
.38
4
3.3
8
16
.91
1
5.0
7
aAp
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al C
orp
ora
te F
ina
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
16
Ind
us
tria
l Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
90
-20
14
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 8
7.5
6
2.2
2
3.5
6
0.8
9
-
-
0.4
4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.3
3
AA
+ -
8
3.6
8
7.9
5
2.5
1
0.4
2
1.2
6
0.4
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.7
7
AA
-
1.5
5
80
.86
7
.24
4
.31
0
.69
0
.17
0
.52
0
.17
0
.34
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
.14
AA
- -
0
.27
2
.67
7
4.2
7
12
.93
3
.60
1
.20
0
.27
0
.27
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
.53
A+
-
-
0.1
3
2.7
2
79
.34
1
0.6
0
2.4
5
0.4
6
0.5
3
0.3
3
-
0.0
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.3
8
A -
-
0
.12
0
.32
2
.51
8
1.2
0
7.9
6
1.9
1
0.8
0
0.2
0
0.3
6
0.1
2
0.0
8
0.0
4
0.1
6
-
-
-
4.2
2
A-
-
-
0.0
4
0.1
3
0.6
0
4.6
9
77
.60
1
0.4
5
1.5
9
0.7
3
0.1
7
0.0
9
0.0
4
-
-
-
0.1
7
0.0
9
3.6
1
BB
B+
-
-
0.0
4
-
0.2
1
0.6
1
5.1
3
77
.34
8
.76
1
.35
0
.36
0
.14
0
.53
0
.04
0
.11
-
0
.11
0
.18
5
.09
BB
B -
-
0
.03
-
0
.03
0
.34
0
.67
6
.53
7
8.0
0
6.5
0
0.8
5
0.8
5
0.3
4
0.1
8
0.2
4
0.0
3
0.0
9
0.0
6
5.2
5
BB
B-
-
-
-
0.0
4
0.0
8
0.0
4
0.1
5
0.7
9
9.9
1
74
.70
5
.11
1
.55
0
.83
0
.23
0
.34
0
.04
0
.15
0
.30
5
.75
BB
+ -
-
-
-
0
.07
-
0
.07
0
.36
1
.31
1
2.2
4
66
.13
6
.05
1
.82
0
.95
0
.66
0
.36
0
.80
0
.36
8
.81
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.2
3
0.8
3
2.7
9
10
.64
6
3.0
2
6.5
7
3.2
5
0.9
8
1.2
8
0.4
5
0.6
8
9.2
8
BB
- 0
.08
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
.08
0
.67
0
.67
2
.94
1
3.0
0
61
.41
5
.70
3
.44
0
.92
1
.43
1
.51
8
.14
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.2
0
0.2
0
0.2
9
0.2
9
3.5
1
11
.51
6
0.0
0
8.1
0
2.4
4
1.9
5
0.8
8
10
.63
B -
-
-
-
-
0
.28
-
-
0
.09
-
0
.09
0
.56
2
.43
1
2.3
5
61
.09
7
.02
3
.55
2
.81
9
.73
B-
-
-
-
-
-
0.4
8
-
-
0.3
2
-
-
0.3
2
0.3
2
3.1
8
12
.40
5
6.4
4
10
.33
4
.77
1
1.4
5
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.2
4
-
0.2
4
0.2
4
0.2
4
0.4
8
0.9
6
3.3
7
9.6
2
47
.84
2
8.1
3
8.6
5
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
17
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 9
3.5
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.4
1
AA
+ 1
1.1
1
44
.44
4
4.4
4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
2
5.0
0
25
.00
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
2
5.0
0
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
A -
-
1
1.1
1
-
-
88
.89
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
75
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8
0.0
0
-
-
20
.00
-
-
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 6
7.0
5
3.4
1
6.8
2
1.1
4
2.2
7
3.4
1
-
2.2
7
-
-
-
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-
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13
.64
AA
+ -
1
6.6
7
16
.67
-
-
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3
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
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-
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-
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-
33
.33
AA
-
-
-
14
.29
-
-
-
1
4.2
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
71
.43
AA
- -
-
2
0.0
0
20
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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-
-
6
0.0
0
A+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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-
-
-
A -
-
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8
0.0
0
-
20
.00
-
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-
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33
.33
-
-
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-
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6
6.6
7
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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BB
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-
-
-
-
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-
2
0.0
0
20
.00
-
-
-
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6
0.0
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BB
B-
-
-
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14
.29
1
4.2
9
-
-
-
57
.14
-
-
-
-
1
4.2
9
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
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-
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-
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-
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-
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B-
-
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-
-
-
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-
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-
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-
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-
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-
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CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
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So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al C
ov
ere
d B
on
ds
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
18
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
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B+
B
B
BB
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+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 3
4.2
1
2.6
3
13
.16
-
-
5
.26
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4.7
4
AA
+ -
-
4
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
60
.00
AA
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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-
-
-
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-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
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-
-
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-
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-
A -
-
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-
-
-
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-
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A-
-
-
-
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BB
B+
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10
0.0
0
-
-
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-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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-
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-
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-
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BB
B-
-
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BB
+ -
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-
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-
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BB
-
-
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BB
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-
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B+
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B -
-
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CC
C t
o C
-
-
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So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al C
ov
ere
d B
on
ds
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s a
nd
De
fau
lt R
ate
s
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
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ar
20
05
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ho
rt
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A -
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CC
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o C
-
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So
urc
e: F
itch
19
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
Disclaimer
AL
L F
ITC
H C
RE
DIT
RA
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AR
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T T
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LIM
ITA
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BY
FO
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WIN
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LIN
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HR
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DIN
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DIT
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FIN
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op
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© 2
01
5 b
y Fi
tch
, In
c., F
itch
Rat
ing
s Lt
d. a
nd
its
sub
sid
iari
es.
33
Wh
ite
hal
l Str
ee
t, N
ew
Yo
rk, N
Y 1
00
04
. Te
lep
ho
ne
: 1-8
00
-75
3-4
82
4, (
21
2) 9
08
-05
00
. Fax
: (2
12
) 48
0-4
43
5. R
ep
rod
uct
ion
or
retr
ansm
issi
on
in w
ho
le o
r in
par
t is
pro
hib
ite
d
exc
ep
t b
y p
erm
issi
on
. All
rig
hts
re
serv
ed
. In
issu
ing
an
d m
ain
tain
ing
its
rati
ng
s, F
itch
re
lies
on
fact
ual
info
rmat
ion
it r
ece
ive
s fr
om
issu
ers
an
d u
nd
erw
rite
rs a
nd
fro
m o
the
r so
urc
es
Fitc
h b
elie
ves
to b
e c
red
ible
. Fit
ch c
on
du
cts
a re
aso
nab
le in
vest
igat
ion
of t
he
fact
ual
as t
o t
he
cre
dit
wo
rth
ine
ss o
f a s
ecu
rity
. Th
is o
pin
ion
is b
ase
d o
n e
stab
lish
ed
cri
teri
a an
d m
eth
od
olo
gie
s th
at F
itch
is c
on
tin
uo
usl
y e
valu
atin
g a
nd
up
dat
ing
. Th
ere
fore
, rat
ing
s ar
e t
he
co
llect
ive
wo
rk p
rod
uct
of F
itch
an
d n
o in
div
idu
al, o
r g
rou
p o
f in
div
idu
als,
is s
ole
ly
pre
sen
ted
to
inve
sto
rs b
y th
e is
sue
r an
d it
s ag
en
ts in
co
nn
ect
ion
wit
h t
he
sal
e o
f th
e s
ecu
riti
es.
Rat
ing
s m
ay b
e c
han
ge
d o
r w
ith
dra
wn
at
any
tim
e fo
r an
y re
aso
n in
th
e s
ole
dis
cre
tio
n o
f Fi
tch
. Fit
ch d
oe
s n
ot
pro
vid
e in
vest
me
nt
advi
ce o
f an
y so
rt. R
atin
gs
are
no
t a
1
Glo
bal
Str
uct
ure
d F
inan
ce 2
014
Tra
nsi
tio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
SF
Up
gra
de
s O
utp
ac
e D
ow
ng
rad
es
:
AP
AC
EM
EA
NA
No
In
ve
stm
en
t G
rad
e I
mp
air
me
nts
:
As
se
t-B
ac
ke
d S
ec
uri
tie
s:
Co
mm
erc
ial M
ort
ga
ge
-Ba
cke
d S
ecu
riti
es:
Re
sid
en
tia
l Mo
rtg
ag
e-B
ack
ed
Se
curi
tie
s:
Str
uc
ture
d C
red
it:
Ste
ph
an
ie K
. Ma
h
Stu
art
Je
nn
ing
s
20
13
20
14
%U
pg
rad
eS
tab
le/
PIF
Do
wn
-g
rad
eIm
pa
ire
dU
pg
rad
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tab
le/
PIF
Do
wn
-g
rad
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pa
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d
By
Re
gio
n
By
Se
cto
r
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
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d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
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Ch
an
ge
s
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
By
Se
cto
r: 2
01
4
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e O
ne
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ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
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BB
BB
BC
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Glo
bal
Str
uct
ure
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inan
ce
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e I
mp
air
me
nts
: 20
05
-20
14
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
: 20
14
Glo
ba
l SF
AB
SC
MB
SR
MB
SS
C
%U
GD
GU
GD
GU
GD
GU
GD
GU
GD
G
Glo
ba
l Str
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01
4 T
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sit
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Glo
ba
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S R
ati
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Ac
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By
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se
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ate
go
ry: 2
01
4
Glo
ba
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mp
air
me
nts
: 20
05
-20
14
Glo
ba
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S O
ne
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ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
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BB
BB
BC
CC
CC
an
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Ass
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curi
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lob
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tin
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ha
ng
es
Glo
ba
l Str
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ture
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e 2
01
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ran
sit
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ult
Stu
dy
Glo
ba
l CM
BS
Ra
tin
g A
cti
vit
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y A
ss
et
Ca
teg
ory
: 20
14
Glo
ba
l CM
BS
Im
pa
irm
en
ts: 2
00
5-2
01
4G
lob
al C
MB
S O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
CC
an
d
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Co
mm
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ort
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Se
curi
tie
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Glo
ba
l CM
BS
Ra
tin
g C
ha
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es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
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an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Glo
ba
l RM
BS
Ra
tin
g A
cti
vit
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y A
ss
et
Ca
teg
ory
: 20
14
Glo
ba
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BS
On
e-Y
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r T
ran
sit
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Ma
trix
: 20
14
%A
AA
AA
AB
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BB
BC
CC
CC
an
d
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Re
sid
en
tial
Mo
rtg
age
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ked
S
ecu
riti
es
Glo
ba
l RM
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Im
pa
irm
en
ts: 2
00
5-2
01
4
Glo
ba
l RM
BS
Ra
tin
g C
ha
ng
es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d C
red
it R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
By
As
se
t C
ate
go
ry: 2
01
4
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d C
red
it I
mp
air
me
nts
: 20
05
-20
14
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d C
red
it O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
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PIF
Str
uct
ure
d C
red
itG
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Cre
dit
Ra
tin
g C
ha
ng
es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
AP
AC
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
AP
AC
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ch
an
ge
s
AP
AC
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
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e R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
By
Se
cto
r: 2
01
4
AP
AC
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e I
mp
air
me
nts
: 20
05
-20
14
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
EM
EA
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
By
Se
cto
r: 2
01
4
EM
EA
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e I
mp
air
me
nts
: 20
05
-20
14
EM
EA
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
EM
EA
Str
uct
ure
d F
inan
ceE
ME
A S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
an
ce
Ra
tin
g C
ha
ng
es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
By
Se
cto
r: 2
01
4
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e I
mp
air
me
nts
: 20
05
-20
14
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
No
rth
Am
eri
ca S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
ance
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ch
an
ge
s
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Me
tho
do
log
y
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
D
istr
ibu
tio
n B
y S
ec
tor:
20
14
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
D
istr
ibu
tio
n B
y R
eg
ion
: 20
14
11
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Co
nta
cts
U.S
.
Ro
dn
ey
Pe
lle
tie
r
Eu
rop
e
An
dre
w C
urr
ie
Ali
so
n H
o
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
Gre
g K
ab
an
ce
Re
late
d R
ese
arch
EXCEL
Cri
teri
a G
rou
pG
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
an
ce
Re
late
d r
ep
ort
s
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nce
20
14
Tr
an
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Fit
ch
Ra
tin
gs
Glo
ba
l Cro
ss
-As
se
t F
irs
t-H
alf
2
01
4 D
efa
ult
Up
da
te
Ris
k R
ad
ar
Th
e C
red
it O
utl
oo
k
Ch
arl
ott
e L
. Ne
ed
ha
m
Jere
my
Ca
rte
r
Ste
ph
an
ie M
ah
Re
po
rt D
ata
- E
xc
el F
ile
he
re
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
an
ce
Im
pa
irm
en
t R
ate
s
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Im
pa
irm
en
t R
ate
s: 1
99
0-2
01
4
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
r F
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
10
-Ye
ar
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Imp
air
me
nt
Sta
tis
tic
s*
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Im
pa
irm
en
t R
ate
s O
ve
r a
10
-Ye
ar
Pe
rio
d
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
B
Mo
st
Re
cen
t T
hre
e-Y
ea
r C
um
ula
tiv
e I
mp
air
me
nt
Ra
tes
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
B
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: A
ve
rag
e C
um
ula
tiv
e I
mp
air
me
nt
Ra
tes
: 1
99
0-2
01
4
No
rth
Am
eri
ca
Str
uct
ure
d F
ina
nce
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Imp
air
me
nt
Ra
tes:
19
90
-20
14
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
rF
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
EM
EA
Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nce
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Im
pa
irm
en
t R
ate
s: 1
99
6-2
01
4
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
rF
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
rF
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nce
Im
pa
irm
en
t R
ate
s*
% O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rt T
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: A
ve
rag
e C
um
ula
tiv
e I
mp
air
me
nt
Ra
tes
: 19
90
-20
14
AB
S A
ve
rag
e C
um
ula
tiv
e I
mp
air
me
nt
Ra
tes
: 19
90
-20
14
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
rF
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
CM
BS
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Im
pa
irm
en
t R
ate
s: 1
99
1-2
01
4
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
rF
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
RM
BS
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Im
pa
irm
en
t R
ate
s: 1
99
0-2
01
4
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
rF
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
Str
uc
ture
d C
red
it A
ve
rag
e C
um
ula
tiv
e I
mp
air
me
nt
Ra
tes
: 19
94
-20
14
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
rT
hre
e-Y
ea
rF
ou
r-Y
ea
rF
ive
-Ye
ar
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
90
-20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
an
ce
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
an
ce
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
90
-20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al A
BS
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al A
BS
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
91
-20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al C
MB
S T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al C
MB
S T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
90
-20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al R
MB
S T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al R
MB
S T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
94
-20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Cre
dit
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Cre
dit
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
On
e Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
*
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Th
ree
Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
*
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
an
ce
-Lik
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
*
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
CC
an
d
Be
low
WD
PIF
Ap
pe
nd
ix: F
itc
h G
lob
al S
tru
ctu
red
Fin
an
ce
-Lik
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Dis
clai
me
r
1
Glo
bal
So
vere
ign
20
14 T
ran
siti
on
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Re
gio
na
l R
isk
s
Pe
rsis
t:
Th
e
year
w
as
char
acte
rize
d b
y u
ne
ven
gro
wth
in
th
e m
ajo
r
adva
nce
d e
con
om
ies
and
pe
rsis
ten
t w
eak
ne
ss
amo
ng
le
adin
g
em
erg
ing
m
arke
ts.
Imp
rove
d
gro
wth
in
th
e U
S a
nd
th
e U
K s
too
d i
n m
arke
d
con
tras
t to
fal
teri
ng
exp
ansi
on
in t
he
eu
rozo
ne
and
Ja
pan
. G
eo
po
litic
al
ten
sio
ns,
st
ruct
ura
l
sho
rtco
min
gs
and
lo
we
r co
mm
od
ity
pri
ces
we
igh
ed
on
th
e o
utl
oo
k f
or
EM
s.
So
ve
reig
n U
pg
rad
es
Ov
ert
ak
e D
ow
ng
rad
es
:
do
wn
gra
de
s tr
aile
d
up
gra
de
s,
by
a m
arg
in
11
.7%
, re
spe
ctiv
ely
.
Ra
tin
gs
O
utl
oo
k
Bro
ad
ly
Sta
ble
: P
osi
tive
and
Ne
gat
ive
Ou
tlo
ok
s b
eca
me
mo
re e
ven
ly
bal
ance
d. N
eg
ativ
e O
utl
oo
ks
we
re c
on
cen
trat
ed
pri
ces
and
th
e p
rosp
ect
of
hig
he
r U
.S.
inte
rest
rate
s. C
on
vers
ely
, th
e b
alan
ce o
f O
utl
oo
ks
in
the
eu
rozo
ne
po
inte
d t
o a
mild
imp
rove
me
nt
in
cre
dit
qu
alit
y, a
s cr
isis
-hit
so
vere
ign
s st
arte
d t
o
reco
ver
and
re
bal
ance
.
Ra
tin
gs
R
etu
rnin
g
to
His
tori
ca
l L
ev
els
: E
uro
zon
e u
pg
rad
es
incl
ud
ed
Ire
lan
d a
nd
Sp
ain
,
bo
th
po
siti
ve
ind
icat
ion
s fo
r E
uro
pe
. S
aud
i
Ara
bia
was
th
e o
nly
so
vere
ign
to
bre
ak n
ew
gro
un
d,
its
IDR
ris
ing
fro
m A
A-
to A
A;
all
oth
er
sove
reig
n ID
R u
plif
ts e
nta
iled
co
un
trie
s th
at h
ad
pre
vio
usl
y b
ee
n r
ate
d a
t cu
rre
nt
leve
ls o
r ab
ove
.
De
ve
lop
ed
/E
me
rgin
g
Ra
tin
g
Tre
nd
s:
Mix
ed
si
gn
als
e
ma
na
ted
fr
om
d
eve
lop
ed
ma
rke
ts
(DM
s),
wit
h
bo
th
Fra
nc
e
an
d
Be
rmu
da
do
wn
gra
de
d.
Em
erg
ing
ma
rke
t (E
M)
do
wn
gra
de
s d
ivid
ed
alm
ost
eve
nly
be
twe
en
ec
on
om
ic
an
d
po
litic
al
co
nc
ern
s a
nd
b
oth
test
ing
th
e
low
er
ext
rem
itie
s o
f th
e
rati
ng
Re
ce
nt
Ra
tin
g
Co
nv
erg
en
ce
: S
ove
reig
n
rati
ng
c
on
verg
en
ce
b
etw
ee
n
DM
s a
nd
E
Ms,
evi
de
nt
sin
ce
th
e
ou
tbre
ak
o
f th
e
glo
ba
l
cre
dit
wo
rth
ine
ss
in
DM
s st
ab
ilize
d,
wh
ere
as
EM
s e
nc
ou
nte
red
a m
ore
ch
alle
ng
ing
glo
ba
l
ec
on
om
ic e
nvi
ron
me
nt.
A S
ing
le D
efa
ult
in
20
14
: A
rge
nti
na
reco
rde
d
the
so
le
sove
reig
n
fore
ign
cu
rre
ncy
d
efa
ult
wh
en
it
was
un
able
to
cu
re a
mis
sed
pay
me
nt.
Ch
arl
ott
e L
. Ne
ed
ha
m
Pa
ul R
aw
kin
s
%1
Ye
ar
2 Y
ea
r3
Ye
ar
4 Y
ea
r5
Ye
ar
Inve
stm
en
t G
rad
e -
Sp
ecu
lati
ve G
rad
e 4
.17
4
.97
All
So
vere
ign
s
So
urc
e: F
itch
So
ve
reig
n A
ve
rag
e C
um
ula
tiv
e D
efa
ult
Ra
tes
: 19
95
-20
14
Up
gra
de
sD
ow
ng
rad
es
(No
.)
So
ve
reig
n H
isto
ric
al R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
So
urc
e: F
itch
AA
AA
AA
BB
BB
BB
CC
C t
o C
So
ve
reig
n R
ati
ng
s D
istr
ibu
tio
n b
y M
ajo
r R
ati
ng
Ca
teg
ory
a
a Year
-en
d r
atin
gs.
So
urc
e: F
itch
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
So
ve
reig
n O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
94
.74
-
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
So
ve
reig
n R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
by
Re
gio
n: 2
01
4
14
AP
AC
Eu
rop
eL
AT
AM
ME
& A
fric
aN
ort
h A
me
ric
a
Up
gra
de
Do
wn
gra
de
(No
.)
So
urc
e: F
itch
Em
erg
ing
M
ark
ets
R
ela
ps
e:
EM
s b
ore
th
e
and
e
con
om
ic
turm
oil
mo
un
ted
in
Fe
bru
ary.
So
uth
Afr
ica
was
pu
t o
n N
eg
ativ
e O
utl
oo
k i
n
Jan
uar
y. E
lse
wh
ere
, in
Lat
in A
me
rica
, Arg
en
tin
a
un
cert
ain
ty
and
fa
llin
g
oil
pri
ces.
G
uat
em
ala
and
A
rub
a w
ere
al
so
do
wn
gra
de
d.
Up
gra
de
s
incl
ud
ed
Lat
via,
Lit
hu
ania
, Rw
and
a, S
aud
i Ara
bia
De
ve
lop
ed
Ma
rke
ts’ C
om
eb
ack
: Up
gra
de
s an
d
in
DM
s.
Fitc
h
rem
ove
d
the
U
.S.
fro
m
Rat
ing
Wat
ch N
eg
ativ
e i
n M
arch
fo
llow
ing
a o
ne
-ye
ar
susp
en
sio
n o
f th
e c
eili
ng
on
fed
era
l de
bt.
Po
siti
ve
rati
ng
act
ion
s w
ere
do
min
ate
d b
y th
e e
uro
zon
e
pe
rip
he
ry.
Gre
ece
, S
pai
n a
nd
Ire
lan
d –
th
ree
of
up
gra
de
d o
n t
he
bac
k o
f im
pro
ved
eco
no
mic
Ou
tlo
ok
was
re
vise
d
to
Sta
ble
fr
om
N
eg
ativ
e
leve
ls. A
dd
itio
nal
ly F
ran
ce s
ust
ain
ed
a o
ne
no
tch
was
re
vise
d t
o N
eg
ativ
e in
No
vem
be
r.
EM
Up
gra
de
sD
M U
pg
rad
es
EM
Do
wn
gra
de
sD
M D
ow
ng
rad
es
(No
.)
So
urc
e: F
itch
So
ve
reig
n D
ev
elo
pe
d a
nd
Em
erg
ing
Ma
rke
t H
isto
ric
al R
ati
ng
Ac
tiv
ity
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Fitc
h-R
ate
d S
ove
reig
n ID
R D
efa
ult
s: 1
99
5-2
014
Ru
ssia
n
Fe
de
rati
on
(1
99
8):
Fi
tch
d
ate
s
this
was
wh
en
th
e R
uss
ian
Fe
de
rati
on
de
fau
lte
d
on
its
loca
l-cu
rre
ncy
(LC
) d
eb
t, it
be
gan
to
incu
r
arre
ars
on
fore
ign
-cu
rre
ncy
(FC
) de
bt
ow
ed
to
th
e
afte
rwar
ds.
De
fau
lts
on
FC
de
bt
inst
rum
en
ts h
eld
by
pri
vate
cre
dit
ors
occ
urr
ed
in
19
99
, al
tho
ug
h
pay
me
nts
o
n
Ru
ssia
n
Fed
era
tio
n
Eu
rob
on
ds
we
re m
ain
tain
ed
an
d h
on
ore
d.
Ind
on
es
ia
(19
98
):
Par
is
and
Lo
nd
on
C
lub
mai
nta
ine
d p
aym
en
ts o
n t
he
sin
gle
Fit
ch-r
ate
d
sove
reig
n b
on
d o
uts
tan
din
g a
t th
e t
ime
.
Arg
en
tin
a (
20
01
): D
efa
ult
ed
on
mo
re t
ha
n
he
ld b
y n
on
resi
de
nts
. D
eb
t d
efa
ult
pa
rtia
lly
Mo
ldo
va
(2
00
2):
Uru
gu
ay
(2
00
3):
mo
stly
he
ld b
y n
on
resi
de
nts
.
Do
min
ica
n R
ep
ub
lic
(2
00
5):
Dis
tre
sse
d d
eb
t
US
D1
.1
bill
ion
o
f e
ligib
le
fore
ign
-cu
rre
ncy
-
de
no
min
ate
d b
on
d d
eb
t.
Ec
ua
do
r (2
00
8):
M
isse
d
cou
po
n
pay
me
nt
ann
ou
nce
me
nt
that
th
e
go
vern
me
nt
wo
uld
sele
ctiv
ely
d
efa
ult
o
n
all
glo
bal
b
on
ds.
T
he
Jam
aic
a
(20
10
):
incl
ud
ed
FC
-de
no
min
ate
d in
stru
me
nts
to
wh
ich
Gre
ece
(2
01
2):
app
roxi
mat
ely
EU
R1
99
bn
of
Gre
ek
an
d f
ore
ign
-
face
val
ue
am
ou
nt
of
Gre
ek
go
vern
me
nt
bo
nd
s
be
ing
exc
han
ge
d f
or
ne
w b
on
ds
wit
h a
fac
e
to c
ove
r ac
cru
ed
, un
pai
d i
nte
rest
. Bo
nd
ho
lde
rs
linke
d s
ecu
riti
es.
Th
e im
plie
d n
et
pre
sen
t va
lue
loss
re
lati
ve t
o t
he
ori
gin
al t
erm
s an
d c
on
dit
ion
s
of
the
b
on
ds
imp
lied
b
y th
e
exc
han
ge
w
as
est
imat
ed
to
be
ap
pro
xim
ate
ly 7
4%
.
Jam
aic
a
(20
13
)
do
me
stic
d
eb
t,
resu
ltin
g
in
bo
th
FC
and
LC
IDR
do
wn
gra
de
s to
RD
. T
he
DD
E a
nn
ou
nce
d
by
the
go
vern
me
nt
incl
ud
ed
th
e e
xte
nsi
on
of
mat
uri
tie
s an
d a
re
du
ctio
n i
n c
ou
po
ns
for
the
was
o
ne
o
f th
e
pre
-co
nd
itio
ns
for
Jam
aica
to s
ign
a n
ew
IM
F ag
ree
me
nt
tota
ling
ne
arly
Cy
pru
s (
20
13
):an
exc
han
ge
of
do
me
stic
go
vern
me
nt
bo
nd
s,
wh
ich
re
sult
ed
in a
do
wn
gra
de
of
the
LC
ID
R t
o
RD
. Th
e e
xch
ang
e c
on
stit
ute
d d
om
est
ic b
on
ds
wit
h a
to
tal
no
min
al v
alu
e o
f E
UR
1 b
illio
n,
du
e
to
exp
ire
w
ith
in
the
E
U-I
MF
pro
gra
m
pe
rio
d
we
re r
ep
lace
d b
y n
ew
bo
nd
s w
ith
th
e s
ame
cou
po
n r
ate
s b
ut
wit
h t
he
mat
uri
ty d
ate
s o
f th
e
ne
w s
ecu
riti
es
ext
en
de
d b
eyo
nd
th
e o
rig
inal
pro
gra
m p
eri
od
. As
fore
ign
Cyp
rio
t b
on
ds
we
re
Arg
en
tin
a (
20
14
): A
mis
sed
pay
me
nt
de
fau
lt
on
dis
cou
nt
bo
nd
s is
sue
d u
nd
er
fore
ign
law
Th
e
de
fau
lt
rela
tes
to
a d
isp
ute
b
etw
ee
n
Arg
en
tin
a an
d c
ert
ain
ho
ldo
ut
cre
dit
ors
th
at d
id
cert
pe
titi
on
to
th
e U
.S.
Su
pre
me
Co
urt
. T
he
U.S
. Lo
we
r C
ou
rt r
ulin
g w
as u
ph
eld
, pro
hib
itin
g
Arg
en
tin
a fr
om
mak
ing
pay
me
nts
to
exc
han
ge
d
bo
nd
ho
lde
rs u
nle
ss p
aym
en
ts w
ere
als
o m
ade
IDR
– Is
sue
r D
efa
ult
Rat
ing
. RD
– R
est
rict
ed
De
fau
lt.
4
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
All
Fit
ch
p
ub
licly
ra
ted
, so
vere
ign
lo
ng
-
term
fo
reig
n-c
urr
en
cy
Inte
rna
tio
na
l D
efa
ult
co
nti
nu
ing
d
ata
e
nh
an
ce
me
nt
eff
ort
s m
ay
resu
lt i
n s
ligh
tly
dif
fere
nt
sta
tist
ics
tha
n i
n
pre
vio
usl
y p
ub
lish
ed
st
ud
ies.
T
he
refo
re,
this
mo
st r
ec
en
t st
ud
y su
pe
rse
de
s a
ll p
rio
r
vers
ion
s.
It
is
imp
ort
an
t to
o
bse
rve
th
at
the
ra
tin
g
tra
nsi
tio
ns
ou
tlin
ed
in
th
is
stu
dy
rep
rese
nt
a
dis
tin
ct
his
tori
ca
l p
eri
od
a
nd
m
igh
t n
ot
rep
rese
nt
futu
re
rati
ng
m
igra
tio
n
pa
tte
rns.
fac
tors
, in
clu
din
g c
red
it e
nh
an
ce
me
nt
leve
ls,
ma
rke
ts,
size
o
f su
bse
cto
rs
an
d
rati
ng
s
po
rtfo
lio a
nd
cre
dit
co
nd
itio
ns
ge
ne
rally
.
Fitc
h
em
plo
ys
a
sta
tic
p
oo
l a
pp
roa
ch
in
ca
lcu
lati
ng
d
efa
ult
a
nd
tr
an
siti
on
d
ata
. T
he
sta
tic
p
oo
ls
or,
a
lte
rna
tive
ly,
co
ho
rts
are
cre
ate
d b
y g
rou
pin
g i
ssu
er
rati
ng
s a
cc
ord
ing
to t
he
ye
ar
in w
hic
h t
he
ra
tin
gs
we
re a
cti
ve a
nd
ou
tsta
nd
ing
at
the
be
gin
nin
g o
f th
e y
ea
r. F
or
exa
mp
le, i
ssu
ers
wit
h ra
tin
gs
ou
tsta
nd
ing
at t
he
wit
h
the
sa
me
tr
ue
fo
r a
dd
itio
na
l c
oh
ort
s.
Issu
ers
ne
wly
ra
ted
by
Fitc
h i
n a
ny
giv
en
ye
ar
exa
mp
le,
the
pe
rfo
rma
nc
e o
f ra
tin
gs
init
iate
d
in
mid
yea
r a
re
exc
lud
ed
fr
om
su
bse
qu
en
t
co
ho
rts
sin
ce
th
ey
are
no
lon
ge
r a
cti
ve.
Issu
er
rati
ng
s m
ay
resi
de
in
m
ult
iple
st
ati
c
po
ols
, as
lon
g a
s th
eir
rati
ng
s a
re o
uts
tan
din
g a
t
the
be
gin
nin
g a
nd
en
d o
f th
e y
ea
r o
r m
ult
iple
-
yea
r h
ori
zon
s u
nd
er
ob
serv
ati
on
. Fo
r e
xam
ple
,
the
a
nn
ua
l p
erf
orm
an
ce
o
f a
n
issu
er
rati
ng
init
iate
d in
19
94
, an
d t
he
refo
re o
uts
tan
din
g a
t
ove
r m
ult
iple
-ye
ar
ho
rizo
ns
wo
uld
a
lso
b
e
inc
lud
ed
in
th
e t
wo
-ye
ar,
th
ree
-ye
ar
an
d f
ou
r-
yea
r tr
an
siti
on
ra
tes
for
ea
ch
of
the
co
ho
rts
rate
s a
s a
tra
nsi
tio
n t
o w
ith
dra
wn
.
tra
nsi
tio
n r
ate
s, 1
9 t
wo
-ye
ar
tra
nsi
tio
n r
ate
s,
tra
nsi
tio
n d
ata
at
the
ma
jor
rati
ng
ca
teg
ori
es
an
d d
ow
n t
he
ra
tin
g s
ca
le (
fro
m A
to
BB
B),
wh
ich
co
un
ts e
ac
h n
otc
h c
ha
ng
e o
r fr
om
A
to A
–,
for
exa
mp
le (
see
th
e F
itc
h S
ove
reig
n
the
Ap
pe
nd
ix c
om
me
nc
ing
on
pa
ge
7).
Th
e
the
h
ori
zon
tal
axi
s p
rovi
de
s in
form
ati
on
o
n
the
mig
rati
on
pa
tte
rn o
f th
ose
ra
tin
gs
by
yea
r
en
d.
Th
e t
ab
le r
ea
ds
fro
m t
he
to
p l
eft
-ha
nd
dia
go
na
l to
th
e r
igh
t in
ord
er
to e
xam
ine
th
e
sta
bili
ty o
f e
ac
h c
on
sec
uti
ve r
ati
ng
ca
teg
ory
.
De
fau
lt R
ate
s
we
bsi
te, s
ee
.
bas
is,
as
op
po
sed
to
d
olla
r am
ou
nts
. Fi
rst,
de
fau
lts
are
exa
min
ed
by
year
fo
r e
ach
sta
tic
po
ol a
nd
ind
ivid
ual
rati
ng
cat
eg
ory
. Fo
r e
xam
ple
,
resu
ltin
g a
nn
ual
de
fau
lt r
ate
fo
r al
l ra
tin
gs
in
Fro
m t
he
se a
nn
ual
de
fau
lt r
ate
s, F
itch
de
rive
s
ave
rag
e a
nn
ual
de
fau
lt r
ate
s b
y w
eig
hti
ng
eac
h
ou
tsta
nd
ing
in
th
e
giv
en
co
ho
rt
rela
tive
to
the
nu
mb
er
of
tota
l ra
tin
gs
ou
tsta
nd
ing
fo
r al
l
ave
rag
e o
f th
ese
two
rate
s w
ou
ld ig
no
re p
ote
nti
al
we
igh
tin
g
the
re
sult
s b
ase
d
on
th
e
rela
tive
Th
e s
ame
tech
niq
ue
is u
sed
to c
alcu
late
ave
rag
e
de
fau
lt r
ate
s o
ver
mu
ltip
le-y
ear
ho
rizo
ns.
Fo
r
we
igh
tin
g t
he
de
fau
lt r
ate
s b
y th
e r
ela
tive
siz
e
of
eac
h p
oo
l.
Me
tho
do
log
y
AP
AC
17
% Eu
rop
eL
AT
AM
17
%
No
rth
A
me
ric
a
Mid
dle
E
ast
&
Afr
ica
a Year
-en
d. S
ou
rce
: Fit
ch
So
ve
reig
n R
ati
ng
s D
istr
ibu
tio
n b
y
Re
gio
n: 2
01
4 a
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Co
nta
cts
Cri
teri
a G
rou
pS
ove
reig
ns
Jam
es
Mc
Co
rma
ck
Re
late
d R
ese
arch
EXCEL
Re
late
d r
ep
ort
s
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nce
20
14
Tr
an
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Fit
ch
Ra
tin
gs
Glo
ba
l Cro
ss
-As
se
t F
irs
t-H
alf
2
01
4 D
efa
ult
Up
da
te
Ris
k R
ad
ar
Th
e C
red
it O
utl
oo
k
Re
po
rt D
ata
- E
xce
l File
Th
e F
itch
Glo
bal
Str
uct
ure
Fin
ance
Stu
dy
dat
a is
ava
ilab
le in
an
Exc
el
form
at. C
lick
he
re t
o d
ow
nlo
ad.
Ch
arl
ott
e L
. Ne
ed
ha
m
Jere
my
Ca
rte
r
Ste
ph
an
ie M
ah
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
6
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s: 1
99
5-2
01
4
% O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
r T
hre
e-Y
ea
r F
ou
r-Y
ea
r F
ive
-Ye
ar
10
-Ye
ar
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
-
-
6.2
5
A -
-
-
1
.52
3
.33
7
.41
A-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
1.9
6
2.0
4
2.1
7
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
1.8
9
3.1
6
4.8
2
5.6
3
11
.90
BB
+ 1
.72
2
.73
2
.94
3
.19
3
.53
1
0.2
0
BB
1.4
5
2.9
0
4.4
1
5.9
7
6.3
5
9.5
2
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
B+
-
-
1.2
0
2.7
0
3.1
3
-
B 1
.01
3
.33
4
.88
6
.94
6
.45
1
0.7
1
B-
1.6
1
6.9
0
8.9
3
9.2
6
9.6
2
12
.50
CC
C t
o C
26
.09
2
8.5
7
26
.32
2
2.2
2
27
.78
3
6.3
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
Inv
es
tme
nt
Gra
de
-
0.2
1
0.4
6
0.7
4
0.9
4
1.7
8
Sp
ec
ula
tiv
e G
rad
e 1
.88
3
.31
4
.17
4
.97
5
.44
8
.72
All
So
ve
reig
ns
0.6
9
1.3
5
1.8
1
2.2
8
2.5
6
4.0
5
So
urc
e: F
itch
Mo
st
Re
ce
nt
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-
20
12
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
.00
5
0.0
0
20
11
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: S
ov
ere
ign
De
fau
lt R
ate
s
10
-Ye
ar
Av
era
ge
of
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-
20
03
- 2
01
2 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.78
-
1
.52
-
-
-
1
.54
5
.48
6
.67
So
urc
e: F
itch
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
7
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 8
6.6
7
6.6
7
6.6
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
3
3.3
3
33
.33
-
3
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
75
.00
-
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
3
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
66
.67
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
11
.11
6
6.6
7
11
.11
-
1
1.1
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
-
-
-
6
6.6
7
-
33
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
9
.09
3
6.3
6
36
.36
9
.09
-
-
-
-
-
9
.09
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.3
3
-
8.3
3
58
.33
8
.33
8
.33
8
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2.5
0
37
.50
3
7.5
0
12
.50
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
7.7
8
11
.11
1
1.1
1
-
-
-
-
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
33
.33
2
2.2
2
33
.33
-
1
1.1
1
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
0.0
0
30
.00
-
1
0.0
0
10
.00
1
0.0
0
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
5
0.0
0
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: S
ov
ere
ign
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
6
6.6
7
33
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
2
5.0
0
50
.00
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
30
.00
7
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
1.1
1
77
.78
1
1.1
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
6.6
7
33
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
9
2.3
1
7.6
9
-
-
-
-
-
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
14
.29
5
7.1
4
14
.29
-
1
4.2
9
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3.3
3
66
.67
-
-
-
-
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
2
5.0
0
25
.00
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
5
0.0
0
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
8
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 7
5.0
0
6.2
5
6.2
5
-
-
-
6.2
5
6.2
5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ 5
0.0
0
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
16
.67
-
3
3.3
3
-
-
33
.33
-
-
1
6.6
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
2
5.0
0
25
.00
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
25
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
A -
-
2
0.0
0
20
.00
2
0.0
0
20
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
-
A-
-
-
-
-
40
.00
1
0.0
0
30
.00
-
1
0.0
0
-
10
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
25
.00
2
5.0
0
-
-
25
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
33
.33
1
6.6
7
33
.33
-
1
6.6
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
25
.00
-
-
2
5.0
0
-
25
.00
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
20
.00
2
0.0
0
40
.00
2
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
.00
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
-
40
.00
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
4.2
9
-
-
14
.29
1
4.2
9
28
.57
-
-
-
2
8.5
7
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.67
-
1
6.6
7
-
-
16
.67
5
0.0
0
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
33
.33
6
6.6
7
So
urc
e: F
itch
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
AA
A -
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
AA
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
A+
-
-
-
A -
-
2
0.0
0
A-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
BB
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
B+
-
-
-
B -
1
0.0
0
-
B-
-
50
.00
1
6.6
7
CC
C t
o C
50
.00
1
00
.00
3
3.3
3
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: S
ov
ere
ign
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
9
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
95
-20
14
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 9
8.0
8
1.5
4
-
0.3
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ 1
1.4
3
78
.57
7
.14
2
.86
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
9.0
9
83
.84
4
.04
2
.02
1
.01
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
1
3.4
3
73
.13
5
.97
-
1
.49
1
.49
2
.99
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.49
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
8.3
3
84
.72
2
.78
1
.39
-
-
1
.39
1
.39
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
-
-
1
4.8
6
78
.38
1
.35
4
.05
1
.35
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A-
-
-
-
-
-
12
.99
7
9.2
2
7.7
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
3.0
8
16
.92
6
6.1
5
9.2
3
3.0
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.5
4
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
2
.91
1
7.4
8
71
.84
5
.83
0
.97
-
0
.97
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
17
.24
7
3.2
8
7.7
6
-
-
-
0.8
6
-
0.8
6
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.72
1
8.9
7
70
.69
5
.17
1
.72
-
-
-
-
1
.72
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.4
5
2.9
0
20
.29
6
6.6
7
7.2
5
-
-
-
-
1.4
5
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.71
7
.69
7
7.7
8
7.6
9
3.4
2
1.7
1
-
-
-
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.0
2
17
.35
6
9.3
9
7.1
4
2.0
4
1.0
2
-
2.0
4
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
.03
1
5.1
5
70
.71
6
.06
3
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1
.01
1
.01
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.6
1
-
-
1.6
1
22
.58
5
9.6
8
8.0
6
1.6
1
4.8
4
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.3
5
21
.74
3
9.1
3
26
.09
8
.70
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: S
ov
ere
ign
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
10
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Disclaimer
AL
L F
ITC
H C
RE
DIT
RA
TIN
GS
AR
E S
UB
JEC
T T
O C
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LIM
ITA
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NS
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LE
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LIM
ITA
TIO
NS
AN
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LA
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RS
BY
FO
LLO
WIN
G T
HIS
LIN
K:
HT
TP
://F
ITC
HR
AT
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S.C
OM
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DE
RS
TAN
DIN
GC
RE
DIT
RA
TIN
GS
. IN
AD
DIT
ION
, R
AT
ING
DE
FIN
ITIO
NS
AN
D T
HE
TE
RM
S O
F U
SE
OF
SU
CH
RA
TIN
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AR
E A
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AB
LE
ON
TH
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NC
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LL
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ES
. FIT
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’S C
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F
CO
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ON
FID
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LIT
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ON
FLIC
TS
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IRE
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ND
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ITC
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AY H
AV
E P
RO
VID
ED
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OT
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PE
RM
ISS
IBL
E S
ER
VIC
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RA
TE
D E
NT
ITY
OR
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LA
TE
D T
HIR
D P
AR
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S. D
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OF
TH
IS S
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VIC
E F
OR
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TIN
GS
FO
R W
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LE
AD
AN
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IS B
AS
ED
IN A
N E
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EG
IST
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TIT
Y C
AN
BE
FO
UN
D O
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EN
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UM
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FO
R T
HIS
ISS
UE
R O
N
TH
E F
ITC
H W
EB
SIT
E. C
op
yrig
ht
© 2
01
5 b
y Fi
tch
, In
c., F
itch
Rat
ing
s Lt
d. a
nd
its
sub
sid
iari
es.
33
Wh
ite
hal
l Str
ee
t, N
ew
Yo
rk, N
Y 1
00
04
. Te
lep
ho
ne
: 1-8
00
-75
3-4
82
4, (
21
2) 9
08
-05
00
. Fax
: (2
12
) 48
0-4
43
5. R
ep
rod
uct
ion
or
retr
ansm
issi
on
in w
ho
le o
r in
par
t is
pro
hib
ite
d
exc
ep
t b
y p
erm
issi
on
. All
rig
hts
re
serv
ed
. In
issu
ing
an
d m
ain
tain
ing
its
rati
ng
s, F
itch
re
lies
on
fact
ual
info
rmat
ion
it r
ece
ive
s fr
om
issu
ers
an
d u
nd
erw
rite
rs a
nd
fro
m o
the
r so
urc
es
Fitc
h b
elie
ves
to b
e c
red
ible
. Fit
ch c
on
du
cts
a re
aso
nab
le in
vest
igat
ion
of t
he
fact
ual
as t
o t
he
cre
dit
wo
rth
ine
ss o
f a s
ecu
rity
. Th
is o
pin
ion
is b
ase
d o
n e
stab
lish
ed
cri
teri
a an
d m
eth
od
olo
gie
s th
at F
itch
is c
on
tin
uo
usl
y e
valu
atin
g a
nd
up
dat
ing
. Th
ere
fore
, rat
ing
s ar
e t
he
co
llect
ive
wo
rk p
rod
uct
of F
itch
an
d n
o in
div
idu
al, o
r g
rou
p o
f in
div
idu
als,
is s
ole
ly
pre
sen
ted
to
inve
sto
rs b
y th
e is
sue
r an
d it
s ag
en
ts in
co
nn
ect
ion
wit
h t
he
sal
e o
f th
e s
ecu
riti
es.
Rat
ing
s m
ay b
e c
han
ge
d o
r w
ith
dra
wn
at
any
tim
e fo
r an
y re
aso
n in
th
e s
ole
dis
cre
tio
n o
f Fi
tch
. Fit
ch d
oe
s n
ot
pro
vid
e in
vest
me
nt
advi
ce o
f an
y so
rt. R
atin
gs
are
no
t a
1
Inte
rnat
ion
al P
ub
lic F
inan
ce 2
014
Tra
nsi
tio
n a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
Do
wn
gra
de
s
Ex
ce
ed
U
pg
rad
es
: E
uro
pe
an
sove
reig
n
eco
no
mic
an
d
po
litic
al
chal
len
ge
s,
resu
lte
d
in
the
n
eg
ativ
e
rati
ng
d
rift
fo
r
and
ne
arly
all
of
the
se
cto
r’s
do
wn
gra
de
s fo
r
So
vere
ign
as
Arg
en
tin
a’s
de
fau
lt
trig
ge
red
re
spe
ctiv
e
rati
ng
s o
f b
oth
pu
blic
en
titi
es
and
lo
cal
and
Th
ere
w
ere
hav
e
be
en
in
fre
qu
en
t,
the
re
sult
ing
av
era
ge
go
vern
me
nt e
xpe
nd
itu
re, r
evi
ew
ing
the
se
rvic
es
pro
vid
ed
, th
eir
fu
nd
ing
an
d t
he
org
aniz
atio
nal
S
tead
y le
vels
o
f
en
erg
y an
d c
om
mo
dit
y p
rice
s co
uld
bri
ng
so
me
eco
no
mic
vo
lati
lity,
wh
ich
may
le
ad t
o f
alls
in
inco
me
fo
r so
me
Au
stra
lian
sta
tes
de
pe
nd
en
t
hav
e r
esu
lte
d i
n l
ow
er
reve
nu
es
for
a n
um
be
r
Th
is
stu
dy
pro
vid
es
dat
a
stat
isti
cs
on
th
e
year
’s
rati
ng
tr
ansi
tio
ns
for
%
AA
AA
AA
BB
BB
BB
a
a
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
or
co
nst
rain
ed
re
ven
ue
wa
s a
co
mm
on
th
rea
d
pa
rt t
he
re
gio
n’s
de
bt
gro
wth
to
fu
nd
Win
ter
Ne
gat
ive
ra
tin
g
acti
vity
le
d
eac
h
resp
ect
ive
%B
BB
BB
BC
CC
D
WD
AA
A
AA
A BB
B
BB
B
5
15
Eu
rop
eN
ort
h A
me
ric
a
8
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Th
e
rep
ub
lic
T
he
p
rovi
nc
e
de
fau
lte
d
on
d
eb
t se
rvic
e
pa
yme
nts
o
n
its
Th
e p
rovi
nce
de
fau
lte
d o
n d
eb
t se
rvic
e p
aym
en
ts d
ue
on
Th
e p
rovi
nc
e d
efa
ult
ed
on
de
bt
serv
ice
pa
yme
nts
du
e o
n p
rovi
nc
ial
Th
e p
rovi
nc
e m
isse
d
T
he
c
ity
mis
sed
a
n
Th
e p
rovi
nce
mis
sed
a
Th
e
cit
y m
isse
d
a
de
bt
Fitc
h-R
ate
d In
tern
atio
nal
Pu
blic
Fin
ance
IDR
De
fau
lts:
19
95
-20
14
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
co
nta
ins
rec
en
t a
nd
his
tori
ca
l tr
an
siti
on
da
ta
for
sup
ran
ati
on
als
, c
ap
turi
ng
all
pu
blic
lo
ng
eff
ort
s m
ay
resu
lt
in
slig
htl
y d
iffe
ren
t
Th
ere
fore
, th
is m
ost
re
ce
nt
stu
dy
sup
ers
ed
es
tra
nsi
tio
ns
ou
tlin
ed
in
th
is
stu
dy
rep
rese
nt
a
dis
tin
ct
his
tori
ca
l p
eri
od
a
nd
m
igh
t n
ot
fac
tors
, in
clu
din
g c
red
it e
nh
an
ce
me
nt
leve
ls,
sta
tic
p
oo
ls
or,
a
lte
rna
tive
ly,
co
ho
rts
are
cre
ate
d b
y g
rou
pin
g i
ssu
er
rati
ng
s a
cc
ord
ing
to t
he
ye
ar
in w
hic
h t
he
ra
tin
gs
we
re a
cti
ve a
nd
exa
mp
le, i
ssu
ers
wit
h ra
tin
gs
ou
tsta
nd
ing
at t
he
exa
mp
le,
the
pe
rfo
rma
nc
e o
f ra
tin
gs
init
iate
d
in
mid
yea
r a
re
exc
lud
ed
fr
om
su
bse
qu
en
t
po
ols
, as
lon
g a
s th
eir
rati
ng
s a
re o
uts
tan
din
g a
t
the
a
nn
ua
l p
erf
orm
an
ce
o
f a
n
issu
er
rati
ng
yea
r tr
an
siti
on
ra
tes
for
ea
ch
of
the
co
ho
rts
wh
ich
co
un
ts e
ac
h n
otc
h c
ha
ng
e o
r fr
om
A
pro
vid
es
info
rma
tio
n o
n t
he
mig
rati
on
pa
tte
rn
wit
h ‘
AA
A’
an
d f
ollo
win
g t
he
dia
go
na
l to
th
e
rig
ht
in o
rde
r to
exa
min
e t
he
sta
bili
ty o
f e
ac
h
we
bsi
te, s
ee
rati
ng
s, t
he
re
sult
ing
an
nu
al d
efa
ult
ra
te f
or
all
de
fau
lts
co
nsi
ste
d o
f d
efa
ult
s a
mo
ng
iss
ue
rs
rate
d ‘B
B’ a
t th
e b
eg
inn
ing
of
the
ye
ar
an
d t
he
‘BB
’ co
ho
rt a
t th
e b
eg
inn
ing
of
the
ye
ar
tota
led
ave
rag
e a
nn
ua
l de
fau
lt r
ate
s b
y w
eig
hti
ng
ea
ch
co
ho
rt’s
de
fau
lt r
ate
s b
y th
e n
um
be
r o
f ra
tin
gs
ou
tsta
nd
ing
in
th
e
giv
en
c
oh
ort
re
lati
ve
to
the
nu
mb
er
of
tota
l ra
tin
gs
ou
tsta
nd
ing
fo
r a
ll
the
re
sult
s b
ase
d o
n t
he
re
lati
ve n
um
be
r o
f ‘B
B’
gre
ate
r e
mp
ha
sis
to
the
re
sult
s o
f th
e
‘BB
’
Th
e
sam
e
tec
hn
iqu
e
is
use
d
to
ca
lcu
late
Me
tho
do
log
y
Eu
rop
e
No
rth
A
me
ric
a
ME
&
Afr
ica
a
a
5
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Co
nta
cts
Re
late
d R
ese
arch
EXCEL
Stu
dy
dat
a is
ava
ilab
le in
an
Exc
el
he
re
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
6
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s: 1
99
5-2
01
4
% O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
r T
hre
e-Y
ea
r F
ou
r-Y
ea
r F
ive
-Ye
ar
10
-Ye
ar
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
-
-
-
-
A-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
1.4
1
5.1
7
8.3
3
10
.26
4
0.0
0
BB
- -
2
.38
2
.70
3
.08
3
.85
1
5.3
8
B+
1.3
2
1.4
3
1.6
7
2.0
0
2.5
0
10
.00
B -
5
.56
8
.82
1
4.2
9
21
.74
4
5.4
5
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
16
.28
1
6.2
8
16
.28
1
6.2
8
16
.28
1
4.6
3
Inv
es
tme
nt
Gra
de
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sp
ec
ula
tiv
e G
rad
e 1
.78
3
.27
4
.71
6
.21
7
.95
1
9.1
5
All
In
tern
ati
on
al P
ub
lic
Fin
an
ce
0.3
4
0.6
1
0.8
4
1.0
6
1.2
8
3.0
7
So
urc
e: F
itch
Mo
st
Re
ce
nt
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
20
12
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
20
11
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
10
-Ye
ar
Av
era
ge
of
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
20
03
- 2
01
2 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: I
nte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e D
efa
ult
Ra
tes
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
7
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
2
1.0
5
73
.68
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.26
AA
-
-
68
.42
2
6.3
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.2
6
AA
- -
-
-
5
3.3
3
40
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
.67
A+
-
-
-
-
80
.00
2
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A-
-
-
-
-
-
20
.00
7
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.6
7
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
73
.91
8
.70
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
7.3
9
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
8.7
5
78
.13
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
.13
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.7
0
8.1
1
86
.49
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.70
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
.14
7
1.4
3
7.1
4
-
-
-
-
-
-
14
.29
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
86
.67
1
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
1.1
1
77
.78
-
-
-
-
-
1
1.1
1
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.67
8
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
85
.71
-
1
4.2
9
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 3
2.0
0
16
.00
4
4.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.0
0
AA
+ -
-
4
2.8
6
7.1
4
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
13
.33
2
0.0
0
6.6
7
6.6
7
20
.00
6
.67
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
6.6
7
AA
- -
-
-
2
0.0
0
13
.33
-
1
3.3
3
26
.67
6
.67
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
A+
-
-
-
8.8
2
2.9
4
-
2.9
4
26
.47
1
7.6
5
5.8
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
35
.29
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
.88
1
1.7
6
5.8
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
76
.47
A-
-
-
-
-
-
-
30
.00
-
2
0.0
0
30
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
28
.57
2
8.5
7
14
.29
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
8.5
7
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2.5
0
87
.50
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.2
6
15
.79
6
3.1
6
5.2
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
.53
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
1.4
3
21
.43
-
7
.14
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
20
.00
2
0.0
0
60
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
1.1
1
22
.22
4
4.4
4
-
-
-
-
-
22
.22
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
.00
2
0.0
0
40
.00
-
-
-
-
3
0.0
0
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
6.6
7
-
-
-
33
.33
-
5
0.0
0
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: I
nte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
8
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
AA
A 1
0.0
0
-
26
.67
3
.33
3
.33
3
.33
-
3
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
AA
+ -
-
5
0.0
0
-
-
37
.50
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2.5
0
AA
-
-
8.3
3
-
8.3
3
16
.67
-
1
6.6
7
16
.67
8
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
AA
- -
-
-
7
.41
-
-
-
1
4.8
1
3.7
0
11
.11
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
2.9
6
A+
-
-
10
.00
-
2
0.0
0
-
-
-
20
.00
1
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
.00
A -
-
-
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
25
.00
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
25
.00
A-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
33
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
6.6
7
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
75
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
So
urc
e: F
itch
Ap
pe
nd
ix: I
nte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
AA
A -
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
AA
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
A+
-
-
-
A -
-
-
A-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
BB
-
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
B+
-
-
-
B -
-
-
B-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
So
urc
e: F
itch
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
9
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
95
-20
14
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
D
AA
A 9
0.3
6
5.5
7
0.2
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.8
5
AA
+ 4
.83
6
9.6
6
16
.55
4
.14
-
-
2
.07
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.76
AA
-
3.2
0
77
.20
1
1.2
0
2.8
0
0.8
0
-
0.4
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.4
0
AA
- -
-
2
.85
8
0.3
4
8.5
5
2.5
6
0.2
8
0.2
8
1.7
1
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So
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Ap
pe
nd
ix: I
nte
rna
tio
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l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e T
ran
sit
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Ma
tric
es
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
10
Ap
pe
nd
ix: S
up
ran
ati
on
al T
ran
sit
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tric
es
On
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r Tr
an
sit
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trix
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14
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So
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Th
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ar
Tra
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So
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Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
11
Ap
pe
nd
ix: S
up
ran
ati
on
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
an
d D
efa
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Ra
tes
De
fau
lt R
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s b
y C
oh
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%O
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20
14
Co
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hre
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10
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Tra
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00
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So
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12
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Disclaimer
AL
L F
ITC
H C
RE
DIT
RA
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GS
AR
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JEC
T T
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LIM
ITA
TIO
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LA
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BY
FO
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WIN
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HIS
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HT
TP
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ITC
HR
AT
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S.C
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DE
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TAN
DIN
GC
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DIT
RA
TIN
GS
. IN
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AT
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FIN
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AN
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RM
S O
F U
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OF
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ON
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TH
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ITC
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SIT
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op
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ht
© 2
01
5 b
y Fi
tch
, In
c., F
itch
Rat
ing
s Lt
d. a
nd
its
sub
sid
iari
es.
33
Wh
ite
hal
l Str
ee
t, N
ew
Yo
rk, N
Y 1
00
04
. Te
lep
ho
ne
: 1-8
00
-75
3-4
82
4, (
21
2) 9
08
-05
00
. Fax
: (2
12
) 48
0-4
43
5. R
ep
rod
uct
ion
or
retr
ansm
issi
on
in w
ho
le o
r in
par
t is
pro
hib
ite
d
exc
ep
t b
y p
erm
issi
on
. All
rig
hts
re
serv
ed
. In
issu
ing
an
d m
ain
tain
ing
its
rati
ng
s, F
itch
re
lies
on
fact
ual
info
rmat
ion
it r
ece
ive
s fr
om
issu
ers
an
d u
nd
erw
rite
rs a
nd
fro
m o
the
r so
urc
es
Fitc
h b
elie
ves
to b
e c
red
ible
. Fit
ch c
on
du
cts
a re
aso
nab
le in
vest
igat
ion
of t
he
fact
ual
as t
o t
he
cre
dit
wo
rth
ine
ss o
f a s
ecu
rity
. Th
is o
pin
ion
is b
ase
d o
n e
stab
lish
ed
cri
teri
a an
d m
eth
od
olo
gie
s th
at F
itch
is c
on
tin
uo
usl
y e
valu
atin
g a
nd
up
dat
ing
. Th
ere
fore
, rat
ing
s ar
e t
he
co
llect
ive
wo
rk p
rod
uct
of F
itch
an
d n
o in
div
idu
al, o
r g
rou
p o
f in
div
idu
als,
is s
ole
ly
pre
sen
ted
to
inve
sto
rs b
y th
e is
sue
r an
d it
s ag
en
ts in
co
nn
ect
ion
wit
h t
he
sal
e o
f th
e s
ecu
riti
es.
Rat
ing
s m
ay b
e c
han
ge
d o
r w
ith
dra
wn
at
any
tim
e fo
r an
y re
aso
n in
th
e s
ole
dis
cre
tio
n o
f Fi
tch
. Fit
ch d
oe
s n
ot
pro
vid
e in
vest
me
nt
advi
ce o
f an
y so
rt. R
atin
gs
are
no
t a
1
U.S
. Pu
blic
Fin
ance
20
14 T
ran
siti
on
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
U.S
. E
con
om
ic
Co
nd
itio
ns
Im
pro
ve
: S
tate
Ra
tin
gs
Sta
bli
ty:
Se
cto
r M
ov
es
:
No
D
efa
ult
s:
Ra
tin
g D
istr
ibu
tio
n:
Ou
tlo
ok
s:
Stu
dy
O
ve
rvie
w:
Ch
arl
ott
e L
. Ne
ed
ha
m
Olu
So
no
la
BB
BB
BB
CC
C t
o C
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
s D
istr
ibu
tio
n: 2
01
4a
a %
20
13
20
14
By
Se
cto
rU
pg
rad
eD
ow
ng
rad
eU
pg
rad
eD
ow
ng
rad
e
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
Ch
an
ge
s
2
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
4
%A
AA
AA
AB
BB
BB
BC
CC
to
CD
WD
a
BB
B
BB
B CC
C t
o C
a
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e A
ve
rag
e C
um
ula
tiv
e D
efa
ult
Ra
tes
: 19
99
-20
14
%1
Ye
ar
2 Y
ea
r3
Ye
ar
4 Y
ea
r5
Ye
ar
BB
B
BB
B CC
C t
o C
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e R
ati
ng
s D
istr
ibu
tio
n b
y S
ec
tor:
20
14
Sta
te-b
y-s
tate
:
Sp
ec
ula
tiv
e G
rad
e R
ep
res
en
ted
:
U.S
. P
ub
lic
F
ina
nc
e
De
fau
lt
His
tory
:
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
De
fau
lt R
ate
s
Me
tho
do
log
y
4
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Co
nta
cts
Cri
teri
a G
rou
pU
.S. P
ub
lic
Fin
an
ce
/G
lob
al
Infr
as
tru
ctu
re &
Pro
jec
t F
ina
nc
e
Re
late
d R
ese
arch
EXCEL
Re
late
d r
ep
ort
s
Glo
ba
l Co
rpo
rate
Fin
an
ce 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
Glo
ba
l So
ve
reig
n 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
a
nd
De
fau
lt S
tud
y
Glo
ba
l Str
uc
ture
d F
ina
nce
20
14
Tra
ns
itio
n
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Inte
rna
tio
na
l Pu
bli
c F
ina
nce
20
14
Tr
an
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Fit
ch
Ra
tin
gs
Glo
ba
l Cro
ss
-As
se
t F
irs
t-H
alf
2
01
4 D
efa
ult
Up
da
te
Ris
k R
ad
ar
Th
e C
red
it O
utl
oo
k
Re
po
rt D
ata
- E
xc
el F
ile
he
re
Ch
arl
ott
e L
. Ne
ed
ha
m
Jere
my
Ca
rte
r
Ste
ph
an
ie M
ah
Da
nie
l Ch
am
pe
au
Oli
vie
r D
elf
ou
r
Ch
eri
an
Ge
org
e
5
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Av
era
ge
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s: 1
99
9-2
01
4
% O
ne
-Ye
ar
Tw
o-Y
ea
r T
hre
e-Y
ea
r F
ou
r-Y
ea
r F
ive
-Ye
ar
10
-Ye
ar
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
-
-
-
A -
-
0
.02
0
.05
0
.07
0
.20
A-
-
0.0
3
0.0
6
0.1
0
0.1
1
-
BB
B+
-
-
0.0
6
0.1
4
0.2
2
0.4
5
BB
B -
0
.06
0
.07
0
.07
0
.31
0
.45
BB
B-
0.1
7
0.2
8
0.5
0
0.7
6
0.9
4
3.3
6
BB
+ -
-
1
.47
2
.31
2
.11
1
3.9
5
BB
0.4
6
2.6
5
4.8
2
6.5
8
6.8
2
4.7
6
BB
- 1
.15
5
.56
7
.94
7
.55
8
.89
5
.56
B+
2.0
4
4.4
4
4.6
5
2.5
6
2.6
3
5.2
6
B 2
.41
2
.70
2
.99
3
.17
1
.85
-
B-
3.8
5
8.3
3
8.7
0
10
.00
1
0.0
0
20
.00
CC
C t
o C
10
.00
1
4.1
0
14
.93
2
0.3
4
22
.81
3
7.1
4
Inv
es
tme
nt
Gra
de
-
0.0
1
0.0
3
0.0
5
0.0
7
0.1
8
Sp
ec
ula
tiv
e G
rad
e 1
.70
3
.60
5
.06
6
.26
6
.76
1
2.0
2
All
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 0
.04
0
.08
0
.12
0
.15
0
.18
0
.36
So
urc
e: F
itc
h
Ap
pe
nd
ix: U
.S. P
ub
lic
Fin
an
ce
De
fau
lt R
ate
s
10
-Ye
ar
Av
era
ge
of
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
20
03
–2
01
2 -
-
-
-
-
0
.03
0
.07
-
-
0
.25
1
.57
4
.55
9
.26
2
.86
3
.08
8
.70
Mo
st
Re
ce
nt
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Cu
mu
lati
ve
De
fau
lt R
ate
s (
CD
Rs
)
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
20
12
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.1
4
20
.00
2
5.0
0
-
-
20
11
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.4
5
10
.00
-
-
1
1.1
1
-
So
urc
e: F
itc
h
6
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
a
AA
A 9
3.9
2
0.2
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.8
6
AA
+ 2
.03
9
3.9
1
2.0
3
0.2
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.8
1
AA
-
3.4
1
89
.27
3
.09
-
-
-
0
.16
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
.07
AA
- -
0
.16
4
.38
8
8.9
1
3.1
3
0.3
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.1
6
-
-
-
-
-
2.9
7
A+
-
-
-
4.6
3
84
.32
2
.31
2
.06
0
.26
-
-
-
-
0
.26
-
-
-
-
-
6
.17
A -
-
-
0
.75
3
.38
9
1.3
5
1.5
0
-
0.3
8
-
0.3
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.2
6
A-
-
-
-
-
13
.27
4
.87
6
6.8
1
2.2
1
0.8
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11
.95
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
2.2
9
8.4
0
77
.86
5
.34
2
.29
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
.82
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
2
.22
6
.67
7
6.6
7
1.1
1
2.2
2
1.1
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
.00
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.6
3
10
.53
7
1.0
5
2.6
3
1.3
2
5.2
6
1.3
2
-
-
1.3
2
-
3.9
5
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
.76
8
3.3
3
2.3
8
-
-
2.3
8
-
-
-
7.1
4
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.9
0
6.9
0
72
.41
6
.90
3
.45
-
-
-
-
3
.45
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
.67
-
6
.67
6
6.6
7
6.6
7
6.6
7
-
-
-
6.6
7
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
2
5.0
0
-
-
-
25
.00
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
7.7
8
-
-
-
22
.22
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
5
0.0
0
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
a
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
a
AA
A 8
3.0
1
2.6
1
0.4
4
0.4
4
0.2
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
13
.29
AA
+ 3
.71
8
1.2
1
5.8
0
1.3
9
0.4
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.4
2
AA
-
5.7
9
75
.30
5
.45
2
.21
0
.34
0
.17
0
.34
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.3
9
AA
- -
0
.43
8
.42
6
9.7
6
5.7
1
1.2
8
0.5
7
0.2
9
0.1
4
-
-
-
0.1
4
-
-
-
-
-
13
.27
A+
-
-
0.7
2
7.0
0
62
.80
5
.56
2
.90
0
.48
0
.24
0
.24
0
.24
-
0
.24
-
-
-
-
-
1
9.5
7
A -
-
-
0
.79
7
.54
7
0.2
4
3.9
7
1.5
9
2.3
8
0.7
9
0.7
9
-
0.4
0
-
0.4
0
-
-
-
11
.11
A-
-
-
-
0.3
8
11
.32
7
.55
3
9.6
2
4.9
1
3.4
0
0.7
5
0.7
5
0.7
5
-
-
-
-
-
-
30
.57
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
2.4
6
12
.30
4
7.5
4
10
.66
4
.10
0
.82
2
.46
4
.10
-
0
.82
-
0
.82
-
1
3.9
3
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
1
.06
6
.38
1
2.7
7
30
.85
1
2.7
7
5.3
2
6.3
8
1.0
6
1.0
6
1.0
6
-
-
-
21
.28
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.4
3
4.2
9
15
.71
3
8.5
7
10
.00
4
.29
4
.29
-
4
.29
1
.43
-
-
1
5.7
1
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
.23
6
.45
4
5.1
6
16
.13
6
.45
-
3
.23
-
-
-
1
9.3
5
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.1
4
21
.43
3
5.7
1
-
7.1
4
-
-
-
7.1
4
21
.43
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
0.0
0
-
10
.00
-
-
2
0.0
0
30
.00
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
25
.00
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
50
.00
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
aAp
pe
nd
ix: U
.S. P
ub
lic
Fin
an
ce
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
7
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
a
AA
A 7
7.5
4
4.2
4
0.4
2
0.4
2
0.4
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.95
AA
+ 4
2.2
1
35
.71
4
.55
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
7.5
3
AA
13
.10
3
4.4
8
17
.70
5
.06
1
.84
0
.23
0
.46
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
7.1
3
AA
- 1
.02
1
4.8
3
30
.43
1
5.8
6
4.3
5
1.5
3
0.2
6
0.7
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
30
.95
A+
-
2.2
4
14
.87
2
7.7
0
9.1
6
2.4
4
1.2
2
0.8
1
0.2
0
0.8
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
.53
A -
1
.19
3
.56
2
0.6
7
20
.67
8
.55
1
.66
0
.71
0
.71
0
.71
0
.71
-
0
.24
-
0
.48
-
-
0
.48
3
9.6
7
A-
-
-
1.8
9
10
.19
1
5.4
7
14
.34
7
.92
3
.40
2
.26
1
.89
0
.38
0
.75
0
.38
-
-
-
-
-
4
1.1
3
BB
B+
-
-
-
2.3
3
9.3
0
9.3
0
17
.05
1
3.1
8
3.1
0
1.5
5
1.5
5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
42
.64
BB
B -
-
1
.80
-
2
.70
7
.21
1
0.8
1
9.0
1
2.7
0
2.7
0
2.7
0
0.9
0
1.8
0
-
-
-
-
-
57
.66
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
1.3
9
-
5.5
6
5.5
6
5.5
6
2.7
8
4.1
7
2.7
8
1.3
9
-
4.1
7
-
-
-
66
.67
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
9
.09
9
.09
-
-
1
8.1
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.0
9
54
.55
BB
-
-
-
-
-
18
.18
-
-
9
.09
-
-
9
.09
-
-
-
-
-
9
.09
5
4.5
5
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
5.0
0
75
.00
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
00
.00
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
.00
6
0.0
0
aAp
pe
nd
ix: U
.S. P
ub
lic
Fin
an
ce
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ice
s
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
AA
A -
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
AA
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
A+
-
-
-
A -
-
0
.48
A-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
-
BB
B -
-
-
BB
B-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
9
.09
BB
-
7.1
4
9.0
9
BB
- -
2
0.0
0
25
.00
B+
-
25
.00
-
B -
-
-
B-
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
40
.00
So
urc
e: F
itc
h
8
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Av
era
ge
An
nu
al T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 19
99
-20
14
% A
AA
A
A+
A
A
AA
- A
+
A
A-
BB
B+
B
BB
B
BB
- B
B+
B
B
BB
- B
+
B
B-
CC
C
to C
D
W
Da
AA
A 9
6.5
4
0.7
7
0.3
2
0.0
5
0.0
2
-
0.0
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.2
8
AA
+ 5
.91
8
9.8
5
2.0
2
0.3
4
0.0
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.8
6
AA
0.5
6
7.4
1
87
.14
2
.26
0
.23
0
.10
0
.04
0
.03
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.23
AA
- 0
.06
0
.11
9
.37
8
4.2
8
2.7
6
0.3
7
0.1
4
0.0
4
0.0
4
0.0
1
0.0
1
-
0.0
1
-
-
-
-
-
2.7
8
A+
0.3
0
0.0
1
0.4
0
9.8
9
82
.96
1
.93
1
.53
0
.20
0
.09
0
.01
0
.04
-
0
.01
-
-
-
0
.01
-
2
.60
A -
-
0
.17
3
.39
9
.47
8
2.1
9
1.8
5
0.3
9
0.3
7
0.1
5
0.0
6
0.0
4
0.0
4
-
0.0
6
-
0.0
2
-
1.8
1
A-
-
-
-
0.1
8
4.0
2
6.8
5
81
.07
2
.36
1
.09
0
.26
0
.03
0
.16
-
-
0
.10
-
-
-
3
.89
BB
B+
-
-
-
0.1
1
0.2
7
3.0
7
8.7
2
78
.36
3
.98
1
.51
0
.16
0
.43
0
.11
0
.05
0
.16
0
.05
-
-
3
.01
BB
B -
-
-
0
.12
0
.12
0
.37
2
.98
8
.28
7
7.5
4
3.6
5
1.1
0
0.7
3
0.2
4
0.1
8
0.2
4
0.0
6
-
-
4.3
8
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
0.0
9
0.0
9
0.1
7
2.7
1
6.4
6
77
.99
4
.02
1
.92
0
.87
0
.17
0
.52
0
.26
0
.17
0
.17
4
.37
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.42
6
.38
7
4.4
7
4.6
1
4.9
6
0.7
1
1.0
6
0.3
5
-
-
6.0
3
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.4
6
0.9
2
5.5
0
6.8
8
70
.18
3
.21
2
.29
1
.38
0
.92
0
.92
0
.46
6
.88
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.15
3
.45
6
.90
6
3.2
2
3.4
5
6.9
0
1.1
5
4.6
0
1.1
5
8.0
5
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.0
4
2.0
4
6.1
2
2.0
4
65
.31
2
.04
6
.12
4
.08
2
.04
8
.16
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
.82
-
4
.82
1
.20
2
.41
6
1.4
5
4.8
2
4.8
2
2.4
1
13
.25
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
15
.38
3
8.4
6
11
.54
3
.85
3
0.7
7
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.0
0
-
70
.00
1
0.0
0
15
.00
aA
pp
en
dix
: U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
9
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al I
nfr
as
tru
ctu
re a
nd
Pro
jec
t F
ina
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
On
e-Y
ea
r Tr
an
sit
ion
Ma
trix
: 20
14
Co
ho
rt
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
a
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
1
00
.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
9
4.4
4
5.5
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
-
92
.16
5
.88
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
.96
A -
-
-
-
-
9
6.3
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.6
4
A-
-
-
-
-
-
4.4
4
86
.67
6
.67
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.22
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.0
3
81
.82
3
.03
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2.1
2
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
.78
7
2.2
2
5.5
6
2.7
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.67
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.1
3
4.2
6
91
.49
2
.13
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
6.9
2
15
.38
-
-
-
-
-
-
7
.69
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
9.0
9
-
63
.64
-
9
.09
9
.09
-
9
.09
-
-
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8
8.8
9
-
-
-
-
-
11
.11
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
85
.71
1
4.2
9
-
-
-
-
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
4.2
9
57
.14
-
-
1
4.2
9
14
.29
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
0.0
0
-
-
-
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
4
2.8
6
7.1
4
a Th
ree
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
a
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
AA
+ -
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
AA
-
11
.76
5
2.9
4
-
5.8
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
29
.41
AA
- -
-
3
.33
5
6.6
7
36
.67
3
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
A+
-
-
-
-
81
.58
1
0.5
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.8
9
A -
-
-
-
5
.08
7
2.8
8
-
-
5.0
8
-
-
-
-
1.6
9
-
-
-
-
15
.25
A-
-
-
-
-
-
10
.20
6
1.2
2
16
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2.2
4
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
18
.52
6
2.9
6
7.4
1
3.7
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.4
1
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
2
.86
5
.71
3
7.1
4
5.7
1
-
5.7
1
-
-
2.8
6
-
2.8
6
-
37
.14
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.8
6
2.8
6
62
.86
8
.57
8
.57
2
.86
-
-
-
-
-
1
1.4
3
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
8.3
3
8.3
3
-
8.3
3
-
16
.67
-
8
.33
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10
.00
1
0.0
0
-
30
.00
-
2
0.0
0
-
-
-
10
.00
2
0.0
0
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
6.3
6
9.0
9
-
-
9.0
9
18
.18
2
7.2
7
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
28
.57
4
2.8
6
14
.29
-
-
1
4.2
9
B -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
4.2
9
-
14
.29
1
4.2
9
28
.57
2
8.5
7
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.67
1
6.6
7
33
.33
3
3.3
3
CC
C t
o C
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
.67
3
3.3
3
33
.33
1
6.6
7
a
10
U.S
. Pu
bli
c F
ina
nc
e 2
01
4 T
ran
sit
ion
an
d D
efa
ult
Stu
dy
Ap
pe
nd
ix: G
lob
al I
nfr
as
tru
ctu
re a
nd
Pro
jec
t F
ina
nc
e T
ran
sit
ion
Ma
tric
es
De
fau
lt R
ate
s b
y C
oh
ort
%O
ne
-Ye
ar
20
14
Co
ho
rtT
hre
e-Y
ea
r 2
01
2 C
oh
ort
10
-Ye
ar
20
05
Co
ho
rt
AA
A -
-
-
AA
+ -
-
-
AA
-
-
-
AA
- -
-
-
A+
-
-
-
A -
-
1
.43
A-
-
-
-
BB
B+
-
-
4.7
6
BB
B -
-
5
.00
BB
B-
-
-
10
.34
BB
+ -
-
-
BB
-
10
.00
-
BB
- -
1
8.1
85
0.0
0
B+
-
-
10
0.0
0
B1
4.2
9
28
.57
-
B-
-
33
.33
-
CC
C t
o C
42
.86
33
.33
-
So
urc
e: F
itc
h
10
-Ye
ar
Tra
ns
itio
n M
atr
ix: 2
00
5 C
oh
ort
%A
AA
AA
+A
AA
A-
A+
AA
-B
BB
+B
BB
BB
B-
BB
+B
BB
B-
B+
BB
-C
CC
to
CD
WD
a
AA
A -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
6.6
7
-
-
-
-
-
-
83
.33
AA
+ -
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
.00
AA
-
11
.76
4
1.1
8
5.8
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.8
8
-
-
-
-
35
.29
AA
- -
-
4
.76
4
7.6
2
38
.10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
9
.52
A+
-
-
2.2
2
6.6
7
37
.78
2
6.6
7
-
4.4
4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
22
.22
A -
-
-
-
1
0.0
0
31
.43
1
0.0
0
4.2
9
1.4
3
1.4
3
-
2.8
6
-
1.4
3
-
1.4
3
-
1.4
3
34
.29
A-
-
-
-
-
-
20
.00
4
6.6
7
10
.00
-
3
.33
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
0.0
0
BB
B+
-
-
-
-
4.7
6
-
-
33
.33
1
4.2
9
9.5
2
4.7
6
4.7
6
-
4.7
6
-
-
-
4.7
6
19
.05
BB
B -
-
-
-
-
-
5
.00
2
.50
5
.00
2
.50
7
.50
-
-
2
.50
2
.50
-
2
.50
5
.00
6
5.0
0
BB
B-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.4
5
-
6.9
0
6.9
0
-
6.9
0
-
-
3.4
5
-
10
.34
6
2.0
7
BB
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
66
.67
BB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.6
7
-
-
13
.33
-
-
6
.67
-
-
7
3.3
3
BB
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
0.0
0
50
.00
B+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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