Fit for Business

Richard Carrick, Chief Executive

It all looks pretty gloomy..

April to July 2007 av no of housing sales 110,828 transactions per month

April to July 2008 - 57,887

= a fall of 48%

New car sales showing biggest fall for 17 years

• David Blanchflower says Bank of England has been too optimistic & UK will face 18 months of falling output

• Wednesday October 29 2008 18.01 GMT • David Blanchflower, member of Bank of England's monetary policy committee ……

failed to respond to the warning signs of a looming recession and has wrongly delayed cutting interest rates until it was too late to stop growth contracting and unemployment rising sharply

• ……… Britain would now endure 18 months of falling output as it felt the full impact of the credit crunch.

• Blanchflower was a lone voice calling for cuts in interest rates from the MPC during the summer - the other members had been wrong to ignore his warnings.

• "I believe the trend has been apparent for some time. The synchronised downturn in so many business surveys should have led us to realise sooner that the UK economy was entering a recession."

• Blanchflower added: "If rates are not cut aggressively we do face the prospect of a relatively deep and long-lasting recession".

• Blanchflower said policy makers were faced with an "unusually severe" international financial problem.

• "It is even possible that this event may turn out to be more significant than the 1929 Crash which principally involved bank failures in the US. The current difficulties in financial markets are more global in nature and more comparable to what happened in world war one, when stock exchanges in several countries were closed for extended periods."

‘Bankers are wankers. They won’t lend you £5,000, but they’ll blow billions on sub-prime borrowers & lose everything in one fell swoop.’ Hiro Harjani, Founder Aftershock Fashion

We’re in recession…. We have not had a recession since Bryan Adams was top of

the charts and Leeds United won the last ever First Division title

That last recession predated the Internet, New Labour, speed dating, mass multichannel,TV, the Maternity Leave Directive, Big Brother, Cool Britannia & Spice Girls, Enron, Channel Five, social networking, civil partnerships, mobile telecommunications, Alexander McQueen and Stella McCartney, CSR, Kyoto Protocol & Stern Report, Primark & TK Maxx, Brokeback Mountain & Vagina Monologues, cut price air travel, amazon.com, the knowledge economy….

Millions of people alive today have never lived through a

recession – how will we all behave? What will be different this time round?

Market Factors• Very low consumer confidence• Image of overseas holidays• Fuel costs v self drive economy• Euro effect – 12-15% price rises• Airlift down on 09• Environment & airport hassle• Economy & disposable income effects• Overall market at best neutral• UK weather???• UK net beneficiary??....but later & shorter &

maybe less frequent?

How do you get fit?

• By focusing on the goal & not being complacent

• My making sure you have a routine to get yourself in shape & sticking to it

Who will the winners be?• UK holiday companies

• Those that control their costs – only certain thing

• Spend smartly where it adds value

• Lean & flexible

• Right product & delivery

• Effective promotion, distribution & timing

How People Used to Book Holidays

PlanProgramme Contract Price

ProduceBrochure Launch

ConsumerBooks

ConsumerConsiders

Alternatives

ConsumerRequestsBrochure

AdvertiseBrochure

BrochuresSent to

Travel AgentsAgents

PromotesAgent Sells on Behalf

of Tour Operator

Mail Brochureto Database

Sent toEnquirers &

Bookers

Consumersat known

Conversions

Timing

Cost

ROI

How Consumers Book Today

Who will the winners be?

• UK holiday companies• Those that control their costs – only

certain thing• Spend smartly where it adds value• Lean & flexible • Right product & delivery• Effective promotion, distribution & timing

• Partners

In times of adversity people hunker down

• do things as a family• forge ties with partners• stick to the familiar • act prudently

Partnership has never been more important

• Shared objectives

• Close communication

• Honesty & trust