firecamms fire consortia for advanced modeling of meteorology and smoke

42
FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke www.fs.fed.us/fcamms

Upload: jonas-shaw

Post on 13-Jan-2016

221 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

FireCAMMSFire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

www.fs.fed.us/fcamms

Page 2: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

Smoke Smoke and Fire and Fire WeatherWeather

Weather observations/forecasts, fire danger, and smoke dispersion for the Northwest.

www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environwww.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ

Page 3: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

Ready Access to High Resolution Weather PredictionsReady Access to High Resolution Weather Predictions

Page 4: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 5: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

Ready Access to High Resolution Weather PredictionsReady Access to High Resolution Weather Predictions

Page 6: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 7: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

Smoke PredictionsMM5 36-km MM5 12-km

UW Server

Personal PC

SFSL “Beowulf”

ClusterNFSpuff BlueSky

Page 8: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

Ready Access to High Resolution Weather PredictionsReady Access to High Resolution Weather Predictions

Page 9: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAINSRAINS.o.orgrg

Page 10: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Wildfire Wildland Fire Use - Quartz Complex

- Potential 500 ac/day

Page 11: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Biscuit Fire

Page 12: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAINSRAINS.o.orgrg

Page 13: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

O R E G O N D E P A R T M E N T O F F O R E S T R Y P R E S C R I B E D B U R N I N G

S M O K E M A N A G E M E N T P R O G R A M

C l i c k t h e m a p t o :

Z o o m I n

Z o o m O u t

P a n Q u e r y a L o c a t i o n

R e t u r n T o F u l l E x t e n t

A c t i v e M a p 2 0 0 0 R e g i s t r a t i o n s

S h o w M a p

R e s u l t D a t e

M o n t h . . . J A N U A R Y D a y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 Y e a r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0 0 0

Q u e r y R e s u l t s

P l e a s e s e n d q u e s t i o n s o r c o m m e n t s a b o u t t h e w e b s i t e t o M i k e Z i o l k o . M Z i o l k o @ o d f . s t a t e . o r . u s

Page 14: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Prescribed Fires

Page 15: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Prescribed Fires

Page 16: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

What can it What can it do?do?

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Prescribed Fires

Page 17: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

What is it?What is it?Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

• Daily Emission tracking

• Automated, centralized processing

• Real-time Smoke predictions

• Quantitative Verification

• Community model development

Page 18: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkBlueSkyy

Development CommunityDevelopment CommunityFederal Land Managers

- USDA Forest Service (PNW, R6, R1, RMRS)- Bureau of Land Management (WA, OR, MT)- National Park Service- Fish and Wildlife Service

Federal Air Agencies- NOAA (NWS, ARL)- Environmental Protection Service (R10)

Tribal Nations- Colville - Quinault- Nez Perce

States - Oregon (ODF, DEQ)- Washington (DNR, DE)- Idaho (DEQ)- Montana (DEQ)

Universities- U. of Washington - Washington State U.- U. of Montana

Local Air Agencies- Missoula City-County Health Department- Puget Sound Clean Air Agency

Private- CH2MHill- Air Sciences- 3-Tier

Page 19: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

FASTRACS

MM5

CALPUFF

BlueSkyLinux System

BlueSkyRAINSWindows System

ArcIMS(SDE, SQLserver)

CALPUFF/ArcIMSLinkage

(netCDF2SHP (?))

PAVE Animations

CALMET2netCDF

PreliminaryBlueSky web page

CALMM5/CALMET

HYSPLIT

MM52ARL

TRAJREAD

Time SeriesDisplay

Burn ReportDisplay

EPM2BAEM

CALPUFF2netCDF

EPM/CONSUMEv1.02

F uel M ois tureR M R S

CO N S UM E/EP MS FS L

Em is s ion Rates

Rx F ores tS tate & P r ivate

S FS L ?M T/I D A irs h e d G ro u p?

Ign ition S c enar iosS FS L

M es os c ale W eather12km

1-hour in tervals60-hour forec as t

S m oke W eather12km

1-hour in tervals60-hour forec as t

Rx F ores tF ederal

FA S TR A C S - R 6M T/I D A irs h e d G ro u p

M M 5UW

M M 5-CalpuffENV I R O N

CalP uffS FS L

Agric u ltureW A Eco lo g y

plannedac c om plis hedloc ationtim e of ign itionduration of ign itionfuel loadf ire types ize

Ac c om plis hed S urfac ec onc entrations of

P M 2.5 , P M 10, P M , CO ,C02, CH4, N M HC

T 3

ftp

f tp

f tp

?

loc ations pec iesc onc entration

S m okeVerif ic ation

S tate? O bs ervationsW A , O R , M T, I D

IM P RO VE Vis ualO bs ervations

R 6 ?

N eph. O bs ervationsR 6 ?

S atellite D etec tionNA S A , R M R S ,

U.o f W is c .

P roto type"O ne-Atm os phere"

W EB s iteW A Eco lo g y & S FS L

"O ne-Environm ent"W EB s ite

EPA - R A I NS

Arc IM S M apping1-hr & 24-hr

S FS L , ES R I , & EPA

R-P lot T im eS er iesS FS L

T AHO M A

UW T em porary S ERVER "Com m unity" S ERVER

O bs ervedP lanned S urfac e

c onc entrations ofP M 2.5 , P M 10, P M , CO ,

C02, CH4, N M HC

P lanned w ith innext 60 hours .

Ac c om plis hed w ith inprev ious 36 hours .

Dispersion

Emissions Weather

OutputProducts

SourceCharacteristics

BlueSkyBlueSky

How does it work?How does it work?Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Page 20: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

Source Source CharacteristicsCharacteristics

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

Wildfire• MM5-FARSITE-BurnUp• Diurnal-Consume-EPM• Theoretical Scenario

Prescribed Fire• Planned for next day• Planned for 2nd day• Accomplished today

Page 21: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

Input Input RequirementsRequirements

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

1. Date of burn2. Location3. Time of ignition4. Ignition duration5. Burn area6. Preburn fuel load7. Predicted fuel moisture

Page 22: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

Input Input RequirementsRequirements

Smoke Modeling FrameworkSmoke Modeling Framework

1. Date of burn2. Location3. Time of ignition4. Ignition duration5. Burn area6. Preburn fuel load7. Predicted fuel moisture

a. CRB FCCb. NFDRS-FM + Cond.Classc. LandSum FCC

- MM5-NFDRS

a. MT/ID Airshed Reportsb. Wash. Ag. Reportsc. PFIRSd. National Event Reportse. Remote Sensing

Page 23: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky

Accomplished Burns24 April 2002 Mike Ziolko

Oregon Dept. of Forestry

MODIS Observed Burns

24 April 2002 Wei Min Hao

Missoula Fire Lab

Page 24: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSky &&

Pretty pictures. So what!Pretty pictures. So what!

Mesoscale WeatherMesoscale Weather

Page 25: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

RAINSRAINSBlueSkBlueSkyy

BlueSkyBlueSky

RAINSRAINS

Page 26: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

Page 27: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

Page 28: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

0.00E+00

1.00E+04

2.00E+04

3.00E+04

4.00E+04

5.00E+04

6.00E+04

7.00E+04

Gra

ms p

er S

eco

nd

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748Forecast Hour

CH4

CO

PM

PM10

PM2.5

Page 29: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSkyRRAINSAINS

Tethersonde measurements of particle and gas

concentrations in a smoldering plume.

Model output matched with observations

VerificationVerification

Page 30: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAINSRAINS.o.orgrg

www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environwww.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ

www.fs.fed.us/FCAMMSwww.fs.fed.us/FCAMMS

www.fs.fed.uswww.fs.fed.us/BlueSky/BlueSky

Page 31: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

Wind

Mixing Height

xVentilation IndexVentilation Index (m(m22/s)/s)

ClassificationClassification

0-1175 Poor1175-2350 Marginal

2351-3525 Fair> 3525 Good

Ventilation Climate Information Ventilation Climate Information SystemSystem

Page 32: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/ventwww.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/vent

Page 33: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

Maps & GraphsMaps & Graphs

Page 34: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 35: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 36: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 37: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 38: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 39: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 40: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 41: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
Page 42: FireCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke

BlueSkyBlueSkyRARAINSINS

Ventilation Climate Information SystemVentilation Climate Information Systemwww.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/ventwww.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/vent

www.www.BlueSkyBlueSkyRAIRAINSNS.org.orgA “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.A “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.

A probabilistic planning tool.A probabilistic planning tool.

www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environwww.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environMesoscale WeatherMesoscale Weather

A “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.A “go/no-go/go-slow” operations tool.