Finland, Sweden & Norway.Wien, Februar 2013

Finland

Finland

The political and regulatory climate for wind power

Target of 6 TWh wind power production by 2020 Feed-in tariff since early last year. 83.5 EUR/MWh for 12 years Several government initiatives to speed-up permit process When the Finns decide to do something, they do it.

Average wind resources Permits a bottle-neck as many have been put on hold until new guidelines

are ready. Should speed-up next year Inexperienced in wind power

The financial climate

AAA rating (S&P) Still positive GDP growth figures for 2013 although modest (1.0%). Forecast for 2014 is 2.7%

Weak demand for Finnish exports due to the Eurozone crisis Unemployment expected to rise (also positive driver?)

Revenue stream EUR/MWhFeed-in tariff

83.5 EUR/MWh 12 years

105.3 EUR/MWh 3 first yrs but no longer than 2015.

Good opportunities in the short-and medium term with stable support regime.

Sweden & Norway:

This joint certificate market is going to generate 26.4 TWh new renewable electricity 2012-2020

-Target: 26.4 TWh new renewable electricity 2012-2020 (Obligation in Treaty)

- Quotas in Swedish and Norwegian laws: % of eligible consumption

- Technology-neutrality: Hydro-, wind-, biopower etc qualifies for certificates

- Joint support scheme: Swedish certificates are valid in Norway and vice-versa

..a friendly competition between two neighbours

SwedenSweden

Sweden

The political and regulatory climate for wind power

Support scheme not a part of the government budget GC support for 15 years 2014 elections likely to have the future energy mix high on the political

agenda. Ageing nuclear reactors – how much nuclear will be part of the future energy mix?

+ 1000 MW in installed in 2012

Volatile power and GC prices Target in GC system expected to be reached before 2020 Military restrictions

The financial climate

AAA rating (S&P) Strong SEK (EUR/SEK: 8.57) National debt only 33% of GDP meaning one of the lowest in OECD – room for reforms if needed

GDP growth forecasts had to be revised during H2 2012 as the economy started to slow down due to less activity in the exporting sector. But a growth of 1.3% is still expected this year and 2.5% next year

Unemployment expected to rise with 0.6% in 2013.

Revenue stream EUR/MWhGC + Power Price

Power Price (5 yr forward)

~40 EUR/MWh*

GC price (5 yr forward)

~28 EUR/MWh

Total 68 EUR/MWh

*some price differences in the different electricity price areas.

Low support level compared to most other markets but financial and political stability combined with good wind resources and opportunities for scale still makes it an attractive investment

Norway

Norway

The political and regulatory climate for wind power

Renewable energy target of 67.5% by 2020 Incentive scheme of renewables in place as Norway joined the GC system in

2012 Simply the best wind resources in Europe Decision on two new interconnectors (Germany, UK)

Volatile power and GC prices Grid and interconnectors (lack of) Proposal on requirement of 50% state ownership in new interconnectors Approx. 1600 MW in permitting phase appealed to OED (ministry of petroleum and energy)

The financial climate

AAA rating (S&P) Strong currency GDP growth forecast expected to be 2.5% in 2013 Low unemployment (3.1%)

Decreasing oil prices (-10% in 2012, could facilitate “renewables”?)

Revenue stream EUR/MWh

Power Price (5 yr forward)

~40 EUR/MWh*

GC price (5 yr forward)

~28 EUR/MWh

Total 68 EUR/MWh

Like Sweden low support level compared to other markets but financial and political stability combined with good wind resources and opportunities for scale makes it still an attractive investment. The fundamental challenge ahead

of Norway is more grid capacity and interconnectors to the continent

*some price differences in the different electricity price areas.

Investment Certainty: Stable three-layer architecture

EU: Renewables Directive• Binding targets • Enables and regulates cooperation mechanisms (incl. certificate market)

Sweden-Norway: Treaty• Joint target in TWh: 26.4 • Regulates possibilities for changes

Swedish Law• Quotas (Certificate demand - %)

Norwegian Law• Quotas (Certificate demand - %)

Kvilldal

Tonstad

FedaKristiansand

Tjele

WilhelmshavenEemshaven

Hawthorn Pit

NO SE

DK

DENL

GB

BE

FR

PL

CZ

IE

MaasvlakteIsle of Grain

Mandarins

Sellindge

Brunsbüttel

Esbjerg

BritNedCo

bra

GermanyNo

rNed

Sk 1-3Sk 4NSN

Planned development of interconnectors

Lindome

V. Hastings

Kontiskan

Kruseberg

Stämö

Slupsk Wierzbleçion

BentwischHerrenwyk

SwePol

Baltic

Fenno-Skan 1-2

NordBalt

Nybro

Rush East-West

Deeside

Hunterston

Peterhead

Western Link

Eastern Link

Zeebrugge

NemoIFA

Moyle

Storebælt

Kontek

Blyth

SamnangerSima

NorthConnect

Grid is good!

Greed is good!