finding hmas sydney chapter 8 - performance review

11
HMAS Sydney II: Forward end of aircraft catapult on seabed Copyright: 8 Performance Review

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Page 1: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

HMAS Sydney II: Forward end of aircraft catapult on seabedCopyright: Australian War Memorial.

8

Performance Review

Page 2: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

Road to expertiseThe road from novice to expert is obvious in virtually all forms of human enterprise.

Learning curves follow a classical and almost universal function first observed for hand made cigar production in the 1930s (Snoddy, 1932).

The same general pattern is observed for a huge range of tasks, from chess to surgery to the probability of death in aerial combat.

The following figure includes a rough approximation of a skill acquisition curve for Kirsner and his colleagues.

Interpretation is complicated by the fact that the project involved several strategic changes.

See Speelman and Kirsner (2005) for a review of Learning Curves

(1) Road to expertise

Page 3: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

Distance (nautical miles) between Predicted and Observed Positions of Kormoran

0

10

20

30

40

50

KK

KK

KK

KK

& S

H

KK

KK

& J

D

KK

& J

D

91 92 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Year

Dis

tanc

e (n

autic

al m

iles)

Legend: KK = Kim Kirsner; SH = Sam Hughes; JD = John Dunn

Phase 1: Based on Search and Rescue model

Phase 2: Based on Cognitive Reconstruction without Mathematical Decision Model

Phase 3: Based on Based on Cognitive Reconstruction with Mathematical Decision

Model

Performance on the Learning Curve

Page 4: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

Area for next map

Position of Kormoran Phase 2 (1997-

1998):In collaboration with the HMAS Sydney Foundation Trust:Based on Cognitive Reconstruction without a Mathematical Decision Model

Performance on the MapPhase 1 (1991-1993):With the guidance of or in collaboration with Search and Rescue expert Sam Hughes

Phase 3 (2004): In collaboration with the Finding Sydney Foundation: Based on Cognitive Science with Mathematical Decision Model

Page 5: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

(2) Comparative Review of Search Definition performance by FSF

Directors/Consultants and David Mearns

The presentation involves one chart for the FSF, followed by explanations of the coded publications on that chart, and one chart for Mearns, followed by explanations of the coded publications on that chart

Page 6: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

D/FSF 1: Kirsner (1991); Kirsner (1992); Kirsner & Hughes (1993)

* Distance from wreck ranged from 20 – 25 nm

* Procedure based on Search and Rescue (SAR) model used by Sam Hughes

D/FSF 2: Kirsner & Dunn (1998)

* Position given as ‘a few miles north of 26° 15 South 111° East’ ([i.e., 5 - 10 nm from the wreck of Kormoran]

* Procedure based on reports from Kormoran survivors collected 7-21 days after the battle and used in conjunction with SAR model and Geraldton signal.

D/D/FSF 3: Kirsner & Dunn (2004); Finding Sydney Foundation (2005, 2007)

Position given as 26° 04’ South 111° 02’ East’ [i.e., 2.7 nm from the wreck of Kormoran]

Procedure involved mathematical integration of reports from the Kormoran survivors, the Geraldton signal, a circle of equal distance for the movements of the two life-rafts

Page 7: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

DM 1, 2, 3 and 4: Mearns (2004a, b)

* Distance from wreck ranged from 17-45 nm

* Procedure based on reports by Detmers created 40-400 days after the battle

DM 5-6: Correspondence with FSF; Finding Sydney Foundation (2005)

* Distance from wreck ranged from 17-27 nm from wreck of Kormoran

* Procedure based on reports by Detmers created 40-400 days after the battle

DM 7-8: Correspondence with FSF; Finding Sydney Foundation (2005, 2007); Correspondence with Warren Whittaker; Correspondence between Minister Bilson and PM Howard

* Distance from wreck ranged from 25-27 nm

* Procedure based on interview with von Malapert coupled with reports from Detmers

Page 8: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

Mearns (2008)“Previous attempts by Sydney researchers to estimate the ocean current effect on the drift of the life rafts and other objects relied on a simplistic decades-old understanding that the currents in this area were uniformly northward flowing.”

The pro bono articles published by oceanographers and Search and Rescue experts Steedman and McCormack (1991), Hughes (1991; 2001) and Penrose and Klaka (1991) included explicit provision for variation in the current, and they provided efficient and accurate solutions. Pearce (1991) went one step further and provided detailed descriptions of the variability in the movement of objects in the water. The early oceanographic work was professional and provided an accurate fit on the location of the wrecks.

(3) Oceanography

Page 9: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

111° East

26° South

Griffin (2008)Green ellipse

Area ≈ 13,000 sqnm

Steedman & McCormack (1991)

Pale green circleArea ≈ 3,000 sqnm

Hughes (1991)Maroon circle

Area ≈ 7,000 sqnm

Hughes (2001Green square

Area ≈ 3,000 sqnm

Oceanography and Search and Rescue

Position of Kormoran

Page 10: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

The final figure indicates the approximate sizes of the search boxes recommended or used in the search for Kormoran together with the comparable areas associated with the searches for Titanic, Bismarck and Yorktown.

The needlework precision associated with Ballard’s navigational solutions is clear.

The imprecision associated with the Search and Rescue and Oceanographic solutions is equally clear.

(4) Bob Ballard as a benchmark

Page 11: Finding HMAS Sydney Chapter 8 - Performance Review

13000

1800

400

3300

7850

300

150

100

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Griffin (2008, Oceanography, Kormoran)

Mearns (2008, Navigation & Oceanography,Kormoran)

Kirsner & Dunn, (2004, Cognitive Science,Kormoran)

Hughes (2001, Search and Rescue,Kormoran)

Hughes (1991, Search and Rescue,Kormoran)

Ballard (Yorktown, Navigation, 1998)

Ballard (Bismarck, Navigation, 1989)

Ballard (Titanic, Navigation, 1985)

The areas shown in the figure are square nautical miles (≈)

Analysis of Search Boxes