fichtenbaum - business cycle, turnover and the rate of profit

8/12/2019 Fichtenbaum - Business Cycle, Turnover and the Rate of Profit

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'Business Cycles', Turnover and the Rate of Profit: An Empirical Test of Marxian CrisisTheoryAuthor(s): Rudy FichtenbaumSource: Eastern Economic Journal, Vol. 14, No. 3 (Jul. - Sep., 1988), pp. 221-228Published by: Palgrave Macmillan JournalsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40325197.

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Eastern conomicJournal, olumeXIII, No 3,July-September988

'Business ycles', urnovernd theRate ofProfit: nEmpirical estofMarxianCrisisTheoryRudyFichtenbaum*

INTRODUCTIONThe fragmentaryature fMarx's discussion n criseshas led a number f authors ointerpret arxas sayinghat rises redueto:1) a lackof ffectiveemand, ) the perationfthetendencyf the rateofprofito fallor,3) a profitqueeze.All of theparticipantsnthedebate verMarx'stheoryf he conomicycle gree hat rises reassociatedwith eclinesntherate fprofit. owever,hey isagree n thefactorsesponsibleor ausing hedecline.Initially,hedebatewas carried ut t a theoreticalevel.Recently, owever, number fauthors ave ttemptedoprovidempiricalvidence osubstantiatehese ifferingheoreticalclaims. tudiesby Boddy ndCrotty1975), Weisskopf1979), Hahnel andSherman1982)andDevine 1987) haveexamined he short uncyclicalbehavior fprofitates nd tried oexplaintsbehavior ith ifferentariants fMarxian heory. orerecently,tudies yLipietz

(1986) and Webber ndRigby 1986) haveexamined hebehavior fprofitateswith espectto theMarxianratiosn France nd Canada.In most fthese tudies he ssueof turnoveras been gnored r assumed o be constant.Theoneexceptions the tudy yWebber ndRigbywho orrectlyoint utthe ignificancefturnovernmeasuringherateofprofit. owever, heir tudy oes notexplicitlyook at thecyclical oleofturnoverordo they nterprethanges n turnovernterms fchanges n theprocess f realization.Whileprobably f ittle onsequencenthe ongrun, hevariabilityfturnoverver he ourse f the conomic ycle sofmajor mportance.The purpose f thispaper s toempiricallyncorporatestimates fturnoverntoMarx'sdefinitionftherateofprofit,how hat urnoverlays n importantole nexplainingyclicalmovementsn the rate ofprofit,nd offerome newempirical vidence n the debate overcyclicalcrises.Section1 will define he rateof profitnd demonstratehe importancefturnover.ection willdiscuss hedata usedto estimateherateofprofitndpresent mpiricalestimates f therate of profit.n section3 the rateof profitwill be decomposed nto tscomponentartswhichwillbe usedtoexplain yclicalvariationnindustrialroductionndcapacity tilization.Moreover,heresults resentedn this ectionwillshednew ight n thedebate ver he ausesof rises. inally,hepaperwill oncludewith summarynddiscussionofthe mplicationsfourfindingsorMarxian risis heory.

DepartmentfEconomics,WrighttateUniversity,ayton,OH 45435.I would iketo thankJohnBlairand HushangShahidi for number fhelpful uggestionsndcommentsnanearlier raft fthispaper. would lso ike o thank he ditor nd an anonymousefereefor numberfhelpfuluggestions. ny rrors hich emain re theresponsibilityfthe uthor.221

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222 EASTERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL

Turnovernd theRateofProfitIn order omeasure he rate ofprofit e mustfirst eginbydefininghe rateofprofit.Marx defines he nnualrateofprofitn ts implest orm s follows:

(1) r = s/(C + V)where is thesurplus alueproducedna year,C is thestock fconstantapital, ndV is awage-fundalsomeasured s a stock) Marx 1967Vol.Ill pp.70-76). Dividingllofthe ermsbyV we obtain hefollowing:(2) r = (s/V)/(C/V + 1)where /V s the nnualrateof urplus alue andC/V is thevaluecompositionf apital.Thusfar t hasbeen ssumed hat he nnualrateofturnoversequalto one.However,Marx bothnvolumes I and III of Capital and in Grundrisse laborated xtensivelyn the impactofturnoveroth ntherateof urplus alue and ontherateofprofit.Turnoverontains wo lements: roductionime nd thetime f circulationMarx 1967Vol. I p. 155 and248). Theprocess f urnoversreflectedn the ircuit fmoney apitalwhichoccurs n three tages. n the firsttagethecapitalist onverts sumofmoney apital ntoproductiveapitalwhich akes heform f aborpower nd means fproductionM - C).In the secondstagethe commodities urchasedbythecapitalist re putto work ndengage n theprocess fproduction.nthe hirdtage hemassof ommodities hich avebeenproducedmust be returned o the market nd sold so that the processcan begina new(C - M'). Marxdescribes hiswhole rocessnthefollowing annerM - C . . . P . . . C - M'where hedots ndicate hat heprocess fcirculation as been nterruptedMarx 1967 Vol. IIp. 23). The interruptionefore hecompletionfproductions reflectednproductionimewhich s ultimately eterminedy technological actorsMarx 1967 Vol. HI p. 70). Theinterruptionfter heprocess fproductions reflectedncirculationimewhichdepends nimproved ransportationnd communicationn the ongrun, nd in theshort un overthecourse f thebusiness ycle)on theability osell or realizethe commodities hichhave beenproducedMarx 1967Vol. II p. 317).A crisis sa period fdisjunctionetween hedirect rocess fproductionndtheprocessofcirculation hengoodsthathave beenproduced annotbe sold na 'normal' eriod f time(Marx 1968 Part II p. 507). This results n an increase n the time ofcirculationherebyreducingheturnoverfcapital.During n expansion eriod he ime fcirculations reducedleading oan increasentheturnoverfcapital.The annual rateofsurplus alue and therate ofprofit othdependon the amount fcapitaladvanced and they re bothaffected ythe turnover fcapital.The annual rateofsurplus alue canbewrittens follows:(3) s/V= (s'/V) nwhere isthe nnualamount f urplus alue,V thevariable apital dvanced, is the nnualnumberfturnoversnd s' the urplus alueproducednoneperiod.Marxrefers os'/Vas the'real rate of surplusvalue' (Marx 1967 Vol. II p. 305). Fromequation3 it follows hat adecrease nturnover,ther hingsonstant, illdecrease heannualrateofsurplus alue andthereforeecrease herateofprofit.The real rate f urplus alue' s a functionftechnologynd the lassstruggle.hereforeduring hecourse of a production eriod t is assumed that t is fixed.The surplusvalue



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BUSINESS CYCLES, TURNOVER AND THE RATE OF PROFIT 223

generated n one production eriodis thus a function f the stock of variablecapital.Consequentlyt is initiallyndependentfn,therate ofturnover,uring givenproductionperiod.In fact,the outlayof variablecapital,during giventimeperiod, s based on theexpectationf particularurnoverime. f circulationime ncreases ue to a lack ofeffectivedemand hen urnoverilldecrease. incethe apitalist asalready dvanced certainmountofV,ands'/V isconstant,/Vmust all, eading o a decline n therateofprofit.Subsequently,nresponseo a decline nturnover,apitalistsmight educeV. However,even f hedecline nVwasproportionalothedeclinenn,the nnualrate f urplus alue, /Vwould tilldeclinebecauses' is also proportionaloV. In order o restore/Vtoitspreviouslevel, '/V,the real rateof exploitation'wouldhave to be increasedby raising he laborproductivityftheremaining orkers.Even f thecapitalist ouldincrease he real rateofexploitation'nd thereby old theannualrate f urplus alueconstant,hedeclinenVwould ead to an increasenC/V causinga decline n therate of profit. hus,duringperiods f expansionwhencirculation ime sdeclining,urnoverncreases, aising herateofprofit.uringperiods f crisis nddepressionwhen irculationime engthens,urnoverimegoesdown oweringherateofprofit.The realrate f urplus alue' and thevaluecompositionf apitalreflect,na directway,theconditionsndprocess fproduction.urnover,n the short un, eflectsheconditions frealization r theprocess fcirculation.Marxbelieved hatthesetwoprocesseswere inkedtogetherutthatduring eriods f crises hese inkswerebrokenMarx 1968Part I p. 507).Thus ndefiningherate fprofitt s mportanto ncorporateoth lements fproductionndcirculation. aking nto ccountchanges n turnoverMarx (1967 Vol. Ill p. 74) writes heannualrateofprofits follows:

(4) r = ((s'/V) n)/(C/V + 1)Measuring heRateofProfit

Inthis ectionwewilldevelopmeasures feachof thecomponentsistednequation inorder o estimateherateofprofitor hemanufacturingectorntheU.S. from 949to 1981.Thispaperconfinestself omeasuringherateofprofitnthemanufacturingector ecausedata sources orrespondingothe ategoriesisted bove areonly vailablefor his ector.Ideally,one would iketo have data expressedn labor values since Marx's theoryspresentednthese erms. nfortunately,hisdata isnot vailableand cannot e calculated nan annual basis. Fortunately,haikh (1981: 288-90) and Farjoun and Machover 1983:125-37) haveshown hat herateofprofitmeasured rom ricedatawillclosely pproximatetherate ofprofits measuredwithvalue data ifhighly ggregated ata is beingused. Inaddition,Morishima1973: 142) andShaikh 1981: 288-90) have hown hat herateofprofitmeasuredn value terms nd thetransformedateof profit,measured n prices, re bothmonotoniencreasingransformationsfs/V.Fromthis tfollows hatboth he valuerateofprofitnd thetransformedateofprofitmust lso bemonotonieecreasing unctionsfC/V.Therefore,mostempirical tudiesof Marx's crisistheory elyon data expressedn prices(Weisskopf 979,HahnelandSherman1982,Lipietz1986,Webber ndRigby1986,Mosely1986, ndDevine1987).Thefirstomponent eneed omeasures the mount f urplus alueproduced uringyear.To obtain value for = s'n,wetake hevalue added nmanufacturingnd subtract rom



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it thewagesofproduction orkersnddepreciation. alueadded, s calculatedbytheAnnualSurvey fManufacturess arrived t bytaking hevalue of hipmentsndadding othem hechange n nventoryffinishedroductsndsubtractinghe ostof materials.The next omponent eneedtomeasure s C constant apital.Constant apitalhas twocomponents:) fixedapital, onsistingfequipmentnd structuresnd2) circulatingapital,consistingfrawmaterials,upplies, uel nd worknprocess. orfixedapitalwe usethevalueof equipment nd structures s published by the Department f Commerce n FixedReproducible angibleWealth 925-79.To measure hecirculatingortionfconstantapitalwe take thevalueof nventoriesnmanufacturingirms nd subtract he nventoriesf finishedroducts. hisprovides stockmeasure f theoutlay hat thecapitalistmustmake forrawmaterials, ueletc.With eachturnoverfcapitalthecapitalist eceives hevalue ofhisoriginalnvestmentlusthe urplusvalue which has been produced.Thus, the investmenteededto carryout productionsconsiderablymaller han he ostofmaterials, hichsa flow,measuringhe utlaymultipliedbythenumber fturnoversna year.To measure variablecapital we need to estimatethe outlaynecessary o completeproductionnd realization uring ne turnovereriod.Unfortunately,his nformations notreadilyvailable.However,hewage-fund ultiplied ythenumberfturnoversn a year,V nis equal to the sumofwagespaidoutbythecapitalistna year.Thusin order odevelopemeasure fthewagefundwe takev,thewagespaidtoproduction orkersuringheyear nddivide yn.Turnover,ngeneral,s measured ytakingheratio f flowo a stockwhich ellsus thenumber f times he tock scontainedn theflow. urnover,n), inthemanufacturingsector s thereforealculatedbytaking ales (value added - thechange n the nventoryffinishedroducts)which s a flow,nddividingtbythetotal nventoryf themanufacturingsectorwhich s a stock.Using hedatadescribedbovewehave alculated hevariousMarxist atio's or heyears1949to 1981 which re shownnTable 1.ExplainingCyclicalCrises

Virtuallyll Marxists gree hat yclical rises re causedbydeclinesn therateofprofit.WhereMarxists isagree swith espect othe causesof the decline n the rateofprofit.hedebatehas centered round hree ypotheses.Thefirst ypothesiss that ncreases nthevaluecompositionfcapitalcause declinesnthe rateofprofit. ecently,omehave called nto uestion hevalidityf this rgumentsingOkishio's heorem. histheoremrguesthat incecapitalists lways elect echniqueswhichminimize heir ostsofproductionheywillonly hoose particular echniquef traises heuniformate fprofitSteedman1977).However,haikh 1978) hasshownhat hiswhole ineofargumentationesults rom confusionverthedefinitionf the rate ofprofit. kishio'stheoremelies na definitionhereinherateofprofits a mark-upn thecostofproduction.Marx,he argues,defines herate ofprofitss a returnn investment.singthisdistinction,Shaikhhas shown hat t spossible or herateofprofits definedyOkishio o ncreasewhileat thesame timethe rate of profits defined yMarx declineswhen a newtechnique fproductions selected. urthermore,haikh 1981: 294-97) points ut market rices ndtherate fprofitrenever qual toprices fproductionndtheuniformate fprofitndthereforeit is entirelyossible hat n industryelects techniquewhich aisesthe rate ofprofitnan



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Year VCC s'/V s/V n r1949 7.20 1.39 4.01 2.88 0.491950 6.82 1.49 4.25 2.84 0.541951 5.95 1.42 3.59 2.53 0.521952 6.23 1.40 3.69 2.64 0.511953 6.40 1.39 3.85 2.77 0.521954 7.42 1.51 4.25 2.82 0.501955 7.70 1.63 4.86 2.98 0.561956 7.54 1.67 4.70 2.82 0.551957 8.10 1.69 4.80 2.84 0.531958 8.78 1.71 4.82 2.82 0.491959 9.00 1.82 5.52 3.04 0.551960 9.13 1.81 5.47 3.02 0.541961 9.55 1.85 5.53 2.99 0.521962 9.48 1.88 5.76 3.06 0.551963 9.86 1.95 6.21 3.19 0.571964 9.99 1.99 6.43 3.23 0.591965 10.18 2.04 6.75 3.31 0.601966 9.85 2.06 6.56 3.18 0.611967 9.95 2.07 6.35 3.07 0.581968 10.09 2.11 6.58 3.13 0.591969 9.98 2.11 6.47 3.07 0.591970 10.19 2.11 6.18 2.92 0.551971 10.89 2.20 6.71 3.05 0.561972 10.91 2.20 7.16 3.26 0.601973 10.54 2.28 7.36 3.24 0.641974 9.78 2.47 6.92 2.80 0.641975 10.52 2.47 6.80 2.75 0.591976 10.60 2.55 7.37 2.89 0.631977 10.79 2.56 7.85 3.07 0.671978 10.77 2.57 7.94 3.09 0.671979 11.09 2.71 8.32 3.07 0.691980 11.34 2.72 7.90 2.90 0.641981 11.74 2.75 8.07 2.93 0.63

TABLE1MarxistRatio's 1949-1981

Sources: U.S. DepartmentfCommerce,BureauofCensus,AnnualSurveyofManufactures 981, (Washington, .C.: U.S. GovernmentPrintingOffice,1982): Table la; U.S. Department f Commerce,Bureau of EconomicAnalysis, ixed ReproducibleTangibleWealth1925-79 (Washington, .C.: U.S. Governmentrinting ffice, 981):TableA3; andU.S. Council fEconomicAdvisors,conomicReport fthePresident,Washington, .C.: U.S. Governmentrinting ffice,1983):Table B-48.

industryut lowersthe uniform ate of profit. inally,Lipietz (1986) and Foley (1986)demonstratehat f one holdsthe value of laborpowerconstant,n increase n the valuecompositionfcapitalwillreduce he ostofproduction.e.,meet heOkishio riterionnd atthe ametime esultn a decline n therateofprofit.Clearlythis s an area whichwill continue o be debatedbyMarxists.However,t isequallyclearthat significantumber f Marxists onsider herising aluecompositionf



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capital as beinga theoreticallyoundproposition.herefore,ll of the empirical tudiespreviously entionedn thispaperat least consider rising aluecompositionfcapitalas apotentialause for declinentherateofprofit.The secondhypothesiss that a decline n the rate ofsurplus alue results n a 'profitsqueeze'causing herateofprofito decline.This sbroughtboutbyrisingwagesduringhelatter art fthe xpansion haseof the ycle.The third ypothesistates hatdeclinesntherateofprofitretheresult fthefailureorealizesurplus alue.This is usually ttributedo a lack ofeffectiveemandon thepartofworkers.Weisskopf1979) has arguedthatnoneof thesehypothesesre mutuallyxclusive ndthereforeach must e tested.Accordingo Marx'stheoryfcrises, eclinesnproductionndcapacityutilization re caused bydeclines n therateofprofit.he rateofprofitonsists fthree omponents:) the real rateofsurplus alue'2) the nnualrateofturnover,nd3) thevaluecompositionfcapital.Other hings eing qual,an increasenthe real rateofsurplusvalue' or the nnualrateof turnover ill ncrease herateofprofitnd resultnan increasenindustrialroductionndcapacity tilization. n increasen thevaluecompositionfcapital,otherthingsbeing equal, will cause the rate ofprofito declineresultingn a decline nindustrialroductionndcapacity tilization.Theserelationshipsanbeexpressednequation orm s follows:(5) AIND = + ftAs'/V+ ftAn+ ftAVCC(6) ACU = + ftAs'/V+ ftAn+ ftAVCCwhere: AIND = change n ndustrialroduction,ACU = change ncapacity tilization,As'/V= change n real rateof urplus alue',An= change nannualrateofturnover,ndAVCC = change nvaluecompositionfcapital.Equations5 and 6 are bothexpressedn terms f first ifferenceso eliminate rend ffectswhich re ong erm nd do not eflectyclical ariation.naddition,ach ndependentariablerepresentsparticularariant f Marxiancrisis heory.fchanges n the real rateofsurplusvalue'play n importantole nexplainingmovementsn realproductionndicatorshiswouldlend upporthe profitqueeze' hypothesis.fchanges n turnoverr thevaluecompositionfcapital explainmovementsnrealproductionndicatorshiswould end upporto the ack ofrealization nd risingvalue composition ypotheses espectively.quations5 and 6 wereestimated sing rdinaryeast quares nd theresultsrepresentednTable 2.The regressionesultshown n Table 2 are consistent ith ach ofthethreehypothesesputforward. llofthe oefficientsnequation havethe xpected igns nd the oefficientsorAn and AVCC are statisticallyignificantt the 01 level whilethe coefficientorAs'/Visstatisticallyignificantt the 05 level.Similarlynequation6 all of the coefficientsave theexpected igns nd all arestatisticallyignificanttthe 01 level.In additionto the regularregression oefficients e also present stimates f thestandardized eta coefficientsor all variables.Standardizedbeta coefficientsndicate herelativemportancef eachvariable nexplaininghevariation nthedependent ariable. hebeta coefficientsorAVCC and An are approximatelyixtimes he izeofthebeta coefficient



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(5) (6)AIND ACUCoefficient Beta Coefficient BetaAs'/V 18.46 0.18 16.26 0.18(2.08) (2.97)An 35.07 0.90 32.18 0.95(8.85) (13.13)AVCC -12.77 -0.91 -11.91 -0.98(8.95) (13.49)Intercept 4.47 0 1.12 0(7.04) (2.84)R2 0.77 0.88DW 1.92 1.32tstatisticsnparentheses.

TABLE 2Regression esults

forAs'/V ndicatinghat hemostmportantactors yfar nexplaininghe yclicalmovementinindustrialroductionndcapacityutilizationre thevaluecompositionfcapitaland theannualrateof turnover. oreover,xaminationfthedata for he real rateofsurplus alue'(see Table 1) shows hat tdeclined ignificantlynonly ne timeperiod, rom 950 to 1953,duringwhich ime herewasa period f risis ndrecovery.nall other ycles hedeclinenthe'realrate f urplus alue'wasvirtuallyon-existent.n light fthis act hepositiveoefficienton thevariableAs'/V indicates hat ncreases n s'/V helpexplain ncreases n industrialproductionndcapacityutilization uring eriods frecoveryutdoes notprovide videncethat heres a 'profitqueeze'.Theseresults ifferromhosepresentednprevioustudies y Boddy ndCrotty1975),Weisskopf1979) andHahnelandSherman1982). Specifically,oddy ndCrottylaimthatthe olecauseof economic rises s a profitqueezewhileWeisskopfnd Hahneland Shermansee theprofitqueezeas an importantactor longwith ealization roblems.n addition,heaforementionedtudies ll dismiss heroleoftherising aluecompositionfcapital ncausingcyclicaldeclines n therateof profit. hese differencesre due primarilyo the fact thatprevioustudies avefailed o account or yclicalmovementsn turnover.SummaryndConclusions

In thispaperwe havedefinedherateofprofits Marxdid nCapitaltakingnto ccountnotonly hetraditionalMarxist atiosbutalso therateof turnover.ollowingMarxwe haveargued hat urnovers a critical spectoftheprocess fproductionndcirculationverthecourse f hebusinessycle. naddition, e haveprovidedmpiricalstimatesf he raditionalMarxist atios s well s therateofturnoveror hemanufacturingectorn theU.S. andusedtheseestimates o explaincyclicalmovementsn industrial roductionnd capacityutiliza-tion.Theresultsf his tudyhow he mportancef ncludingmeasure f urnovern therateofprofit.ailure oproperlyccount or urnovereadsto a confusionetweenhe real rateof



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surplusvalue' and theannual rateofsurplusvalue. In addition, hisstudyhas shown hatcyclical rises,which xpress hemselvesntheform f decline n therateofprofitndhencein ndustrialroductionndcapacity tilization,anbeexplained rimarilyn termsf hangesinturnoverndchanges n thevaluecompositionfcapital.REFERENCES

Boddy,Radford nd JamesCrotty.1975. Class Conflict nd Macro-Policy: he Political BusinessCycle. TheReview fRadical PoliticalEconomics (1):1- 19.Devine,James. 1987. Cyclical Over- nvestmentnd Crisis in a Labor Scarce Economy. EasternEconomicJournal. 3(3):271-79.FarjounE. and M. Machover. 983. LawsofChaos. London:Verso.Foley,Duncan. 1986.Understandingapital:Marx'sEconomicTheory. ambridge: arvardUniversityPress.Hahnel,Robinand HowardSherman.1982. The Rate ofProfit vertheBusinessCycle. CambridgeJournal fEconomics. (2): 185-94.Lipietz,Alain. 1986. Behind the Crisis:The Exhaustion f a Regimeof Accumulation: 'regulationschool'perspectivensome French mpiricalworks, eview fRadical PoliticalEconomics, 8(1 &2):13-32.Marx,Karl. 1967.Capital.NewYork: nternationalublishers.1968.Theories f SurplusValue. Moscow:Progress ublishers.1973.Grundrisse.altimore: enguin ooks.Morishima,Michio. 1973. Marx's Economics: A Dual Theoryof Value and Growth.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityress.Mosely,Fred. 1986. Estimates fthe Rate ofSurplusValue inthePostwarUnited tatesEconomy,Review fRadical PoliticalEconomics.18 1 & 2):168-89.Shaikh,Anwar.1978. PoliticalEconomyndCapitalism:NotesonDobb'sTheoryfCrisis. CambridgeJournal ofEconomics 2 (2):233- 51.Shaikh,Anwar. 1981. The Poverty f Algebra, in The Value Controversy.ew York: SchockenBooks.Steedman,an. 1977.MarxAfter raffa. ondon:NewLeftBooks.Webber,M.J.and D.L. Rigby.1986. The Rate of Profit n Canadian Manufacturing,950-1981.Review fRadical PoliticalEconomics.18 1 & 2):33-55.Weisskopf,homas. 1979. MarxianCrisisTheorynd theRateofProfitn thePostwarU.S. Economy.Cambridge ournal fEconomics. (4):341-78.

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