Introduction Research Questions Conceptual framework Data Descriptives Results Conclusion

Do dreams come true?Aspirations and educational attainments of Ethiopian

boys and girls

Marta Favara

University of Oxford

marta.favara@qeh.ox.ac.uk

June 16, 2016

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Living in poverty: external and internal constraints

For many years, poverty eradication strategies focused on building up people’sassets, in the form of human, or physical of financial capital, relying on the as-sumptions that:

- People become poor and remain poor (solely) because of constraints that areexternal to them (Bertrand, Mullainathan and Shafir, 2004).

- Living in poverty does not alter the way people’s make decisions.

Behavioural economists suggest that living in poverty alters peoples decision mak-ing process, de facto constraining individuals abilities to make efficient decisionsand take up new opportunities when they become available (Duflo, 2003).

- Policies addressing exclusively external constrains, for example by expand-ing the opportunity set available to people, might not be necessarily effective inreducing poverty

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The decision making burden

Making decisions is a time/energies consuming process particularly challengingfor those living in poverty (stress, depression, feeling the pressure of difficult cir-cumstances; prioritizing short-term rather than long-term investments) (Mani etal., 2013; Banerjee and Mullainathan, 2010).

People tend to think automatically, guided by habits, using mental short-cuts toease the cognitive load of making, assessing, filtering, and interpreting information.

Those mental shortcuts are largely based on social preferences, identities, socialnorms, expectations and aspirations (Mullainathan and Thaler, 2000).

They help in reducing the burden of processing and interpreting information, butthey might lead to cognitive biases and to neglect some relevant opportunitiesavailable (WDR, 2015).

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Research Questions

This paper investigates the role of early aspirations for later educational attainments(as an indicator of cumulative investments in human capital) in a context of povertyand traditional social expectations and gender roles.

1 Do aspirations predict school attainments? To what extent initial gender gaps inaspirations are mirrored in later school attainments?

2 What predicts aspirations? What predicts parents’ educational aspirations? Towhat extent are parental aspirations an important mediating factor for children’saspirations?

3 To what extent early gender gaps in aspirations are correlated to the perpetuationof gender inequality in later educational outcomes? Is living in poverty equallydetrimental for boys’ and girls’ educational aspirations?

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Aspirations and their role in forward-looking behaviours

Most economic decisions individuals make are forward-looking and are thereforeshaped by the desire or ambition to achieve a goal.

Aspirations are conceptualized as the capacity to visualize the future and engagein forward-looking behaviour (Locke and Latham, 2002).

They combine the wants and preferences of individuals, information about theopportunities available, the expectations formed (about the feasibility of thosewants and preferences), and the constraints acknowledged by an individual withrespect to the future (Bertrand et al., 2008).

How far people aspire depends on their own beliefs about what they can achievewith effort (expectations). People would not aspire to an outcome that is per-ceived as unattainable (Dalton et al., 2015).

Low expectations and therefore a weak capacity to aspire might undermine ef-forts and push individuals to dismiss available options considered unattainable(Appadurai, 2004; Ray, 2006; Duflo, 2012)

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Evidences on aspirations using Young Lives data

Little is known about how aspirations shape decision making (Attanasio et al.,2014; Reuben et al., 2014; Zafar 2013; Dercon and Singh, 2013; Serneels andDercon, 2014; Chiapa, 2012; Locke and Latham, 2002).

Serneel and Dercon (2014) find a positive relationship between aspirations andschooling in India (aspiring to one additional year of schooling at the age of 12lifts the grade achieved at the age of 15 by 1.8 years on average). Strongercorrelation among the children from the poorest socio-economic backgrounds andlower educated mothers.

Dercon and Singh (2013) find a positive link between parental aspirations at theage of 12 and childrens aspirations at the age of 15 and significant gender biasesin parental aspirations (pro-boys in India and Ethiopia and pro-girls in Vietnam bythe age of 12)

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About Young Lives

An interdisciplinary study on childhood poverty

Following two cohorts of children in Ethiopia, India, Peru, Vietnam over 15 years(younger cohort: age 1-12 and older cohort: age 8-19)

Pro-poor sample: 20 sites in each country selected to reflect country diversity,rural-urban, livelihoods, ethnicity, etc.

Empirical analysis: Ethiopian older cohort; Round 1-4

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Nice features of the data

It is a longitudinal dataset, the only one available for Ethiopia.

Proving with a valuable snapshot of a childs schooling history from primary schoolto the transition to post-secondary education or the labour market.

Rich information both at individual and household level.Cognitive tests (Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test and Math test) collected forall children regardless whether they are attending school or not (no selection biascommon to school-based data).

Repeated measures of educational aspirations: parental aspirations collected atthe age of 12 and 15 and children’s aspirations at age of 12, 15 and 19.

- “Imagine you had no constraints and could study for as long as you liked, orgo back to school if you have already left. What level of formal education wouldyou like to complete?”.

- “Ideally what level of formal education would you like child’s name to com-plete?”.

Parental non-educational expectations (about childbearing, and marriage andfinancial independence) measured at age 12.

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School enrolment and educational attainments

- Late-age enrolment is quite common.- Girls start school earlier and drop out later than boys.- On average at age 19 they complete about 8 years of education.- The higher enrolment rate among girls beyond age of 15 can be explained by the

division of labour which in Ethiopia is markedly gendered: girls do primarilydomestic work within the household and boys tend to work predominantlyoutside the household in herding or farming activities.

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Aspirations over time

Boys aspirations decrease over time while girls aspirations increase, particularlyafter age 15.On average, boys have higher aspirations than girls at the age of 12 and 15 (77%and 83% of them aspires to university vs. 68% and 73% of girls).By age 19, three out of four girls aspire to university and the pro-boys gender gapvanishes.Similarly parents have higher aspirations for the education of their boys at boththe age of 12 and 15.

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Aspirations and socio-economic status

- Aspirations are generally high but positively correlated wealth (84% and 67% ofrespectively the richest and the poorest children aspire to university).

- The gender gap in terms of aspirations is the highest among the poorest house-holds.

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Do parents’ and children’s aspirations predict schoolattainment? (1)

There is a positive relationship between early aspirations (parental and child edu-cational aspirations at age 15) and later educational attainments (mean number ofschool years completed at age 19).

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Do parents’ and children’s aspirations predict schoolattainment? (2)

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Do parents’ and children’s aspirations predict schoolattainment? (3)

Both parental and childrens (lagged) aspirations are strong predictors of educa-tional attainments at the age of 15 and 19.

The correlation between childrens aspirations and educational attainment increasesover time.The correlation between (lagged) childrens aspirations and the number of schoolyears completed at the age of 15 and 19 is between 2 and 4 times the correlationwith (lagged) parental aspirations.

Most of correlation between educational attainments and parental aspirations gothrough childrens aspirations.

On average, children performing better in the two cognitive tests and scoring higherin pride stay longer at school.

Upon conditioning for the childs cognitive skills and psychosocial competencies,the estimated coefficient for childrens aspirations reduces by half (column 3 and6).

The pro-girl differential in the number of years of schooling completed is statisti-cally significant since age 15 and triplicate by age 19.

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To what extent aspirations predict educational attainmentdifferently for boys and girls? (1)

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To what extent aspirations predict educational attainmentdifferently for boys and girls? (2)

By age 15 boys whose parents aspiring to university for them have completed arelatively higher number of school years than comparable girls.

Similarly, at both ages 15 and 19 boys aspiring to university achieve a higher gradethan comparable girls.

The process of sorting into education after the age of 15 end up selecting a groupof highly motivated male students supported by their parents willing to postponetheir entrance in the labor market.

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What predicts parental aspirations? (1)

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What predicts parental aspirations? (2)

More educated caregivers, living in urban areas and in households that experienceless shocks, on average, are more likely to aspire to university.

Parental aspirations are positively correlated with the child’s math score.

There is a pro-boy bias in parental aspirations at the age of 15

This gender bias is robust after controlling for individual, household level charac-teristics and parental expectations.

Conditioning for parental expectations the gender bias at the age of 15 does notreduce the pro-boys gender bias in parental aspirations.

Parents who expect their children to leave the household and/or get married atolder ages are more likely to aspire to university for their daughters than for theirsons.

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Inter-generational transmission of aspirations

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Children’s aspirations: heterogeneous capacity to aspire

Having parents aspiring to university is equally correlated to boys and girls aspira-tions.

Girls living in poor households are 12 percentage points less likely to aspire touniversity at the age of 15 than boys living in similar contexts.

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Conclusions

A positive correlation between early aspirations and the number of schooling yearscompleted at age 15 and 19

The correlation is stronger among boys particularly after the age of 15 when theopportunity costs of staying in school increase relatively more for boys than forgirls.

Boys and girls adapt and change their aspirations over time: boys revising theiraspirations downward and girls, who initially chose a suboptimal level of aspirationand filter out university as an attainable goal, at the age of 15 start reconsideringit as an attainable goal.

Expectations about the future of their children shape parental aspirations (gettingmarried and leave the household)

We document a positive correlation between parental aspirations at the age of 15and childs aspirations at the age of 19.

Girls living in poverty might face a higher risk than boys in getting trapped in aspiral of low aspirations-low investments.

So, do people realize their aspirations? Overall, we found a positive correlationbetween aspirations and educational attainments. However, while on one side girlsachievements outdo their initial aspirations, on the other side, boys who initiallyaspire to get to university drop out earlier.

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Thank you!

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