Famine Early Warning Systems Network

July 2, 2015Dakar, Senegal

WEST AFRICA FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK

July to September 2015

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Presentation outline

FEWS NET’s analytical process and orientation to the region

Drivers of current regional food insecurity

Food security outcomes for July to September 2015

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Key messages

Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity is likely in north-eastern Nigeria and amongst small populations in the Central African Republic and Mauritania. Humanitarian assistance is needed to avoid large consumption gaps.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity will be present in many other areas of West Africa.

Projected outcomes are partially dependent on the performance of the current rainy season and current rainfall models are showing mixed forecasts. If a poor rainy season were to occur, food security outcomes could worsen.

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The scenario development approach

Source: FEWS NET

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PHASE 1 Minimal

Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable coping strategies.

PHASE 2 Stressed

Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies.

PHASE 3 Crisis

Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food needs through unsustainable coping strategies.

URGENT ACTION

REQUIREDPHASE 4

Emergency

Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps.

PHASE 5 Famine

Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident.

!Phase classification would likely be worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.

IPC 2.0 area phase classification

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Seasonal calendar in the Sahel

Source: FEWS NET

Outlook period

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CURRENT FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT

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Prices similar to or below the five-year average

Source: FEWS NET

May 2015 millet prices compared to the five-year average

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Lingering economic impacts of Ebola

Source: World Bank, IPA, Statistics Sierra Leone

Employment rates in Sierra Leone

LFS: July – August 2014; round 1: November 2014; round 2: January/February 2015; round 3: May 2015

Hours worked last week amongst those employed

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Conflict continues in Nigeria and CAR

Source: FEWS NET

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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas

Areas where June cumulative rainfall was less than 80% of normal

Source: FEWS NET

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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas

Areas where the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of normal

Source: FEWS NET

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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas

Areas where the evaporative transpiration anomaly (Eta) is less than 90% of average difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of

normal

Source: FEWS NET

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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas

Areas where all three measures were below normal

Source: FEWS NET

Ground reports indicate:

Significant delays (3-4 weeks) of agricultural activities in the Sudanian zone

Reduced seasonal agricultural work incomes for poor households

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Other key drivers Below-average availability

of pasture in pockets across the northern Sahel

Localized areas of below-average household food stocks and livestock incomes due to poor 2014/15 rainfall

Average to above-average off-season cropping activities

Regular supply of imported rice and wheat from international markets

Avian influenza negatively impacting poultry farmers in Burkina Faso, Nigeria

NDVI maximum anomaly, 2014

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

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Food security outcomes, July to Sept 2015

Source: FEWS NET

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Events that could change the Outlook Late start to the rainy season across the northern

Sahel

Below-average rainfall or poor temporal distribution of the rains

Atypically extensive damage from locusts or other pests

Drastic increase in new Ebola cases, or spread to neighboring countries

Significant increase in humanitarian assistance levels

Aggravation of current conflicts with an increase of displaced persons

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For more informationLaouali Ibrahim

Regional Technical Manager, West Africa

librahim@fews.net

+227-20-37-36-88

Abdou Karim Ouedraogo

Food Security Analyst, CILSS/TAC, West Africa

aouedraogo@fews.net

+226-25-49-96-00

To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit www.fews.net

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Mixed seasonal forecasts for July to September

Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation, Issued June

2015

Source: IRI

Probability (most likely category of precipitation), Issued June 2015

Precipitation Standard Anomalies, Issued June 2015

Source: NOAA/CPC

Source: ECMWF

Probability of below-normal precipitation, Issued June 2015

Source: UK Met

Probability (most likely category of precipitation), Issued May 26,

2015

Source: ACMAD