explaining social pacts: political and institutional ... · explaining social pacts: political and...
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Explaining social pacts: Political and Institutional drivers
of social policy in Brazil
Marcus André Melo UFPE CEPAL
Santiago, 20-21 Marzo 2013
Pactos Sociales para uma Proteccion Social mas Inclusiva:
Experiencias obstáculos y posibilidades en América Latina, y Europa
Outline of presentation
• Motivation : Brazil as a role model
• Conceptual framework : incentives and capacities
• Evidence for Brazil
Outline of presentation
• Motivation : Brazil as a role model
• Conceptual framework : incentives and capacities
• Application to Brazil
Outline of presentation
• Motivation : Brazil as a role model
• Conceptual framework : incentives and capacities
• Application to Brazil
Conceptual framework
• Incentives • Who are the partners?
• Social contract, social partners, coalition governments?
• Why partnering for redistribution ? • What factors drive welfare regime expansion?
• Median voter and universalism • Political market failures
• Rudra , Kauffman, Haggard, Segura-Urbiego
• Credit claiming
Conceptual framework
• Capacities
• Political
• Agenda setting and political resources , majority status, executive capacity
• Fiscal
• Administrative
Cardoso 1995-2002
Lula 2003-2010
19 years of political stability
Dilma 2011-
19 years of political stability
india
mexico
colombia
nigeria
portugal
venezuela
brasil
africa do sul
ecuador
uruguai
chile
austria
paraguai
el salvador
bolivia
guatemala
honduras
peru
espanha
costa rica
argentina
nicaragua
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000
The constitution of 1988 and social inclusion
Elections turnout in the Americas
Short term effects: universalism and particularism in the constitution
• Concentrated benefits
• Unsustainable
País/Region
% Pobres Reduccion Percentual en
niveles de pobreza
1990 2002 2005 2007 1990-2007 2002-2007
Brasil 44.9 38.2 - 34.1 29.0 35.4 15.6
America Latina 48.3 44.0 39.8 34.1 29.4 14.3
Poverty reduction in Brazil and Latin America (%) Fuente: CEPAL (2007) and IPEA (2008)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
% c
han
ge i
n p
rice
s p
er y
ear
(IG
P-D
I)
24.48%1945-1963
62.66%1964-1984
1,050.62%1964-1984
10.08%1995-2008
1117%
431% 908%
2012%1216%
496%1167%
2851%
19 years of macroeconomic stability Inflation rate 1945-2010
Fiscal Capacity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
199
0
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
2004
200
5
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
D. Republican
Uruguay
Venezuela
Average
Taxation as % of GDP in Latin America (1990-2007)
Sustained fiscal capacity
Poverty reduction in Brazil 1981-2009
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
under 2 USD
Under 1 USD
11.2 11.011.5
12.3 12.212.6
13.012.9 13.0
13.2
13.8
14.4
14.4
14.2
15.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% o
f GD
P
Fed
eral
So
cial
Sp
end
ing
(R$
bi,
con
stan
t Dec
. 201
0)
.
Federal Social Spending, 1995-2010
.
Political capacity
• Stable competition, not fragmented system
• Programmatic convergence and logrolling
• Parametric reforms in pension system
• Constitutional amendments
– Cardoso 1998
– Lula 2003
– Dilma 2012
• No reform in Health System
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20
Chile
Brazil
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Argentina
Panama
Uruguay
El Salvador
Venezuela
Guatemala
Dom. Rep
Honduras
Mexico
Bolivia
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Paraguay
overall legislative powers
reactive powers
proactive powers
Strong constitutional power of Brazilian presidents
Government coalitions in democratic Brazil
0 20 40 60 80 100
sarney 1
sarney 2
collor1
collor2
collor3
collor4
itamar1
itamar2
itamar3
itamar4
itamar5
fhcI 1
fhc 1 2
fhc II 1
fhc II 2
fhc II 3
fhc II 4
Lula I 1
Lula I 2
Lula I 3
Lula I 4
Lula I 5
Lula I 6
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
Venezuela
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Bolivia
Argentina
Ecuador
Honduras
Peru
Panama
El Salvador
Guatemala
Colombia
Mexico
Dom. Rep
Costa Rica
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay
Judicial independence in Latin America
Strength of Supreme Audit Institutions
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Nicaragua
Ecuador
Honduras
Turkey
KyrgyzRepublic
DominicanRepublic
Bolivia
ElSalvador
Argentina
Venezuela
TrinidadandTobago
Colombia
Portugal
Mexico
Spain
Guatemala
Peru
Slovakia
CostaRica
Chile
Italy
Brazil
France
Poland
UK
Germany
NewZealand
Sweden
Norway
Slovenia
US
Quality of Supreme Audit Institutions – Contralorías/Tribunales de cuentas