everything you need to know about climate change, in cartoons!
TRANSCRIPT
Everything you need to know about climate change, in cartoons!
Suzanne Chew, Little Climate
#lepakinsg, 28th April 2016
Agenda
● What's already happened & expected impacts
● Carbon budget remaining – do the math!
● Timeline and Targets
● Progress & Solutions
● Questions
Agenda
● What's already happened & expected impacts
– Temperature
– Sea levels
– Wildlife
– Food
How hot is it getting?● According to UN, the planet has warmed by +0.85oC from
1880 to 2012. This is now > +1oC.
● Noticed more warm nights and days than before?
● Arctic region warmed by > +2oC
Trends in mean surface air temperature 1960 - 2011
The trend over this 50 year period is for an increase in air temperature of more that 2° C (3.6° F) across much of the Arctic, which is larger than for other parts of the globe.
Source: U. S. National Snow and Ice Data Center. “All About Arctic Climatology and Meteorology: Climate Change in the Arctic”.
How hot is it going to get?
Looking into the crytal ball...
today
How high will sea levels rise?Already risen by 19 cm (1901-2010):
● 50% melting ice
● 40% expanding hot water
● 10% flushed groundwater
How high will sea levels rise?● IPCC predicts up to 80 cm in late-century under business-as-usual
Source: UN IPCC report 5th Assessment Report
Jim Hansen's 2016 paper● “Sea level reached +6–9m in the
Eemian, a time that we have concluded was probably no more than a few tenths of a degree warmer than today.”
● “Our analysis paints a very different picture than IPCC (2013) for continuation of this Hyper-Anthropocene phase, if GHG emissions continue to grow.”
● “In that case, we conclude that multi-meter sea level rise would become practically unavoidable, probably within 50–150 years.”
Photo credit: Global Justice Now, CC BY 2.0, https://www.flickr.com/photos/wdm/2827229183Source: Hansen, J. et al,, 2016, "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous", Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
The 6th Great Extinction: already underway
The 6th Great Extinction● The evidence is incontrovertible that recent extinction rates
are unprecedented in human history and highly unusual in Earth’s history.
● Our analysis emphasizes that our global society has started to destroy species of other organisms at an accelerating rate, initiating a mass extinction episode unparalleled for 65 million years.
● If the currently elevated extinction pace is allowed to continue, humans will soon (in as little as three human lifetimes) be deprived of many biodiversity benefits.
Running faster than climate change!● Species running “uphill and poleward” to cool areas
● Slowpokes like trees, plants, frogs, small mammals likely left behind unable to flee or adapt so fast
What will happen to our wildlife & nature?● 2oC – 3oC: One-fifth to one-third of plant & animal species not likely to survive
● 3.5oC - 4oC: Three-fifths of birds, frogs, corals at risk. Who will lose half the land they live on today? Half of all plants, one-third of all animals.
20C by 2050? What happens to our fish?● Lower global fish catch! -US$17bn to -US$40bn/yr
● Fish getting smaller! -14% to -24%
● Different fish as they move to cooler waters! Dominant fish in Sea of Japan used to be sardines, now anchovies!
20C by 2050? Fish inequality by 2055● High-latitude countries expected to catch 30% to 70% more fish.
● Countries in the tropics expected to catch 40% to 60% less fish.
Harvest inequality● Crop yields fall faster in the tropics as it warms, because it's already hot.
● Rice harvest in China: +1oC = -10%, +3oC = -20%
● South Asia, southern Africa expected to be worst hit, poorer harvests in Southern Europe, parts of U.S. & Central America. But:
● Longer growing season in Russia, S. America, Canada, N. Europe, Finland
Agenda
● What's already happened & expected impacts
● Carbon budget remaining – do the math!
● Timeline and Targets
● Progress & Solutions
● Questions
What's a “safe” level of warming?
What do policymakers say?Paris Agreement pledged 2 degrees, with 1.5 degrees an aspirational goal.
Source: UN Climate Change, CC BY 2.0, https://www.flickr.com/photos/unfccc/23692333176
What do those most affected say?“1.5 To Stay Alive”...represents a level of global warming beyond which many
vulnerable small island states will be overwhelmed by severe climate impacts.”
Source: Climate Visuals, http://www.education4sustainability.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/a-girl-in-Tuvalu.jpg
What do scientists say?“If humanity wishes to
preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization
developed and to which life on Earth is adapted...
CO2 will need to be reduced...to at most 350 ppm,
but likely less than that.”
- Prof. Jim HansenPhoto credit: Global Justice Now, CC BY 2.0, https://www.flickr.com/photos/wdm/2827229183
How much have we emitted already?
Over 2,000 gigatonnes(from 1750 to 2011)
Where's it all gone?
~30% stored in land –
forests, peatlands and soils.
~30% stored in our oceans – causing acidification.
As it warms, oceans also deoxygenate.
~40% stored in our atmosphere - warming us up, melting the ice caps,
causing sea level rise
How different is our air today, compared to 1750?
● Carbon dioxide
● Methane
● Nitrous Oxide (N20)
● Fluorinated gases (F-gases)
+40%
How fast has CO2 concentration grown?
(ppm = parts per million)
Keeling Curve – CO2 through the ages
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Keeling Curve – CO2 through the ages
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Keeling Curve – CO2 through the ages
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Keeling Curve – CO2 through the ages
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Keeling Curve – CO2 through the ages
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
+150%
+20%
+20%
Today, the air we breathe is very different!
How fast are we pumping in more greenhouse gases?
+49 gigatonnes in 2010!
It's doubled from 1970 to 2010...
Source: www.globalcarbonatlas.org
How much more can we pump in?
630 – 1,180 gigatonnes
This carbon budget gives us at least a 2-in-3 chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees
How long do we have left?
(assuming current rate of burn)
13 to 24 years
Agenda
● What's already happened & expected impacts
● Carbon budget remaining – do the math!
● Timeline and Targets
● Progress & Solutions
● Questions
How fast do we need to #ActOnClimate?
Source: Tesla Car: Wendell, CC by 2.0, | Indian solar engineer: UN Women/Gaganjit Singh (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) | Cyclists: Colville-Andersen (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)| Solar power: 10:10 (CC BY 2.0) |
We need to deploy solutions faster... Scientists say we have 14 years until 2030 to get
ahead of the problem
For 2 degrees, 3 targets,
by 2050
● Primary energy: > 60% low-carbon
– Electricity: >80% low-carbon
– Liquid fuels: ~30% low-carbon
2050 target for 2 degrees: >60% primary energy is low-carbon
Source: IPCC, 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 3, Technical Summary
2050 target for 2 degrees: >80% electricity is low-carbon
Source: IPCC, 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 3, Technical Summary
2050 target for 2 degrees: 30% liquid fuel used is low-carbon
Source: IPCC, 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 3, Technical Summary
Agenda
● What's already happened & expected impacts
● Carbon budget remaining – do the math!
● Timeline and Targets
● Progress & Solutions
● Questions
House of Solutions!
Decarbonize!
Use
low
-car
bon
ener
gy c
arrie
rs
Pres
erve
fore
sts
& p
eatla
nds
Geo
engi
neer
?
Smarter habits
Smarter processes Smarter design
House of Solutions!
Decarbonize!
Windpower growth – 432 GW installed
Solar PV growth – 178 GW installed
Great progress, but still far to go!Modern renewables make 10% of total energy.
Source: REN21, 2015, Renewables 2015 Global Status Report
Need a price on carbon
What makes up Singapore's electricity?
Source: Singapore Energy Statistics 2015
House of Solutions!U
se lo
w-c
arbo
n en
ergy
car
riers
House of Solutions!
Pres
erve
fore
sts
& p
eatla
nds
House of Solutions!
Geo
engi
neer
?
House of Solutions!
Smarter processes
What are smarter processes for industry?
● Energy efficiency! Adopt industry best practices e.g.
● Internet server farms: Dynamic power management
● Cement, iron and steel plants: Waste heat recovery
What are smarter processes for industry?● Manage non-CO2 greenhouse gases better! Some examples:
● Destroy: Making nylon and chemical fertilizers releases N2O that can
be destroyed cheaply right at the source
● Safely dispose: Refrigerants used in car aircons and fridges are F-gases – what if they were extracted and safely disposed before the landfill or scrapyard
● Substitute: R410A is 2,000x more
powerful than CO2
What are smarter processes for agriculture?Regenerative agriculture!:
● Less chemical fertilizer through deep pellet placement. Use biochar or organic fertilizers
● Less soil tilling to preserve soil carbon
● Dietary supplements and biogas digestors
● Agroforestry
House of Solutions!
Smarter design
What's smarter design?● Designed to run on less!
– Efficient home appliances, smart thermostats, super-insulation for the home, skyscraper roof gardens
● Designed to be made with less!
– Light-weight design (2/3 weight, but work just as well)
– Bricks that bake in the sun, mushroom packaging, cement using waste ash
Smarter business models by design● Circular economy
– Businesses that close the loop by designing for re-use and repair, and responsibility during disposal.
● Sharing economy
– Businesses that benefit those willing to share their homes, cars, offices, and other things we own, making the carbon embodied in things go further!
House of Solutions!
Smarter habits
What difference could households make?● What and how we consume makes a difference!
● “We highlight the importance of environmental pressure arising from households with their consumption contributing to more than 60% of global GHG emissions and between 50% and 80% of total land, material, and water use.”
● “Mobility, shelter, and food are the most important consumption categories across the environmental footprints.”
Source: Ivanova et al., Environmental Impact Assessment of Household Consumption, 2015, Journal of Industrial Ecology
Carbon footprints of household consumption across countries
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Belgium
Denmark
Ireland
United Kingdom
Greece
Finland
Canada
Australia
Luxembourg
United States
Carbon Footprint of household consumption per person per year (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)
Out of 43 countries assessed, these are the top 10 consumption emissions/pp/yr
Source: Ivanova et al., Environmental Impact Assessment of Household Consumption, 2015, Journal of Industrial Ecology
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
IndiaIndonesia
ChinaSouth Africa
RussiaTaiwan
SwedenSouth Korea
FranceJapan
ItalyNorway
SwitzerlandNetherlands
GermanyDenmark
United KingdomCanada
AustraliaUnited States
Carbon Footprint of household consumption per person per year (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)
Selection of countries: Consumption emissions/pp/yr
World average = 3.4
Source: Ivanova et al., Environmental Impact Assessment of Household Consumption, 2015, Journal of Industrial Ecology
What kind of behaviour changes matter?
● Study on carbon potential of behaviour changes in Europe: 36 changes identified, 11 assessed in detail
● Mobility, shelter and food are the key areas
● “The maximum realistic abatement potential of the measures that can be implemented simultaneously amounts maximally to about 600 Mt CO2 in 2020”
Source: J Faber et al., “Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation Options and Their Appropriate Inclusion in Quantitative Longer Term Policy Scenarios”, Delft, CE Delft, April 2012
50
200
266
11
43
22
45
39
40 (35 - 45)
47
84.5 (56 - 113)
88 (80 - 96)
135 (96 - 174)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Less animal protein (one meat-free day per week)
Shift to a healthy diet
Shift to a vegetarian diet
Optimised thermostat settings
Optimised ventilation behaviour
Reduction of room temperature by 1°C
Reduction of room temperature by 2°C
Virtual meetings
Teleworking
Fuel efficient driving style
Buying and using an plug-in hybrid
Buying and using a smaller car
Buying and using an electric car
CO2 Million tonnes (Maximum realistic mitigation potential in the EU)
Potential of Mobility, Shelter, Food Behaviour Changes
Source: J Faber et al., “Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation Options and Their Appropriate Inclusion in Quantitative Longer Term Policy Scenarios”, Delft, CE Delft, April 2012
Carpool
BikeBus & Trains
Less hot water use
Optimizeaircon use
Less foodwaste
Less foodmiles
What kind of behaviour changes matter?
● Demand for meat and dairy is set to double by 2050, clearing more forests and peatlands, using more water, and releasing more carbon.
● Want to halve what it takes to keep warming to 20C? Just follow a healthy diet as per the Harvard Medical School, of eating 90g of meat, fish and eggs a day.
What's the impact of a different diet?● “...almost half of the emissions from the current diet [in Europe]
are associated with meat consumption.”
Source: J Faber et al., “Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation Options and Their Appropriate Inclusion in Quantitative Longer Term Policy Scenarios”, Delft, CE Delft, April 2012
How high-carbon are different foods?
Pound for pound, beef is:
● 4x - 5x more carbon-intensive than pork
● 8x more carbon-intensive than chicken and eggs.
Source: UN IPCC report 5th Assessment Report
Talk!
In the last week, how many of you spoke with your family or friends about climate change?
Research by Yale University shows that only 4% of Americans hear someone they know talk about
climate change once a week
If we can't even talk about it, how are we going to solve it?
Find out more!
Find out more!
Participants, use “FEELTHELOVE” for a 25% discount :)
Agenda
● What's already happened & expected impacts
● Carbon budget remaining – do the math!
● Timeline and Targets
● Progress & Solutions
● Questions
Questions already answered
● How can vegetarians help to solve climate change?
● What are some of the most critical areas that we should focus on, which will the greatest impact in reducing / reversing the effects of climate change?
– Put a price on carbon --> clean energy
– Behavioural change #ActOnClimate
– Talking about it! @work, @schools, @gov
– Example of climate wedges
1 wedge = -1 billion carbon tons by 2060
Efficiency
● Double fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg.
● Decrease the number of car miles traveled by half.
● Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings.
● Produce current coal-based electricity with twice todays efficiency.
Solar
● Install 100 times the current capacity of solar electricity.
● Use 40,000 square kilometers of solar panels (or 4 million windmills) to produce hydrogen for fuel cell cars.
Source: Princeton University, Carbon Mitigation Initiative
1
2
1 wedge = -1 billion carbon tons by 2060Wind
● Increase wind electricity capacity by 10 times relative to today, for a total of 2 million large windmills.
Biomass Fuels
● Increase ethanol production 12 times by creating biomass plantations with area equal to 1/6th of world cropland.
Nuclear
● Add double the current global nuclear capacity to replace coal-based electricity.
Fuel Switching
● Replace 1400 coal electric plants with natural gas-powered facilities.
Source: Princeton University, Carbon Mitigation Initiative
3
4
5
6
1 wedge = -1 billion carbon tons by 2060
Carbon Capture and Storage
● Capture AND store emissions from 800 coal electric plants.
● Produce hydrogen from coal at six times today's rate AND store the captured CO2.
● Capture carbon from 180 coal-to-synfuels plants AND store the CO2.
Natural Sinks
● Eliminate tropical deforestation.
● Adopt conservation tillage in all agricultural soils worldwide.
Source: Princeton University, Carbon Mitigation Initiative
7
8
● What can students do within the school environment, besides spreading awareness?
● Education, talks, documentary screenings are key
● SEC School Green Award, WWF Eco-Schools Green Flag, BCA has Green Mark Award for existing schools
● Calculate schools carbon footprint to identify key drivers
● Initiative to switch off lights, computers – energy monitors
● Recycling projects – electronics, paper, cans
● School garden to green spaces and grow vegetables
● Explore going green via solar panels● http://climatechangeconnection.org/resources/climate-friendly-schools/what-to-do/
● https://www.nwf.org/Eco-Schools-USA/Become-an-Eco-School/Pathways/Climate-Change/Tips.aspx
● Can we build a social enterprise around that?
● India: Sustaintech cookstoves● Indonesia: Nazava water filters● Africa: Solar Sister● Global: Ecosia (search engine)● Camodia: Kamworks (solar)● Singapore: CarbonStory (offsets)
Questions● As an educator, what has been your experience with
educating people about climate change via social media thus far?
– UNESCO focus on education, key to attitude and behaviour change.
– http://climate.nasa.gov/resources/education/
● How to make solar energy work effectively in humid conditions?
– SolarNova initiative
– Local companies: Sunseap, REC, Phoenix Solar, etc
Is 2oC a reasonable target?
Pathway to Zero exists
The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a global collaboration of energy research teams charting practical pathways to deeply reducing greenhouse gas emissions in their own countries.
It is predicated on taking seriously what is needed to limit global warming to 2°C or less.
Keep up the pressure
Is it realistic for the world – or at least Singapore –
to attain zero emissions in our lifetime?
Are we doing our fair share?
● Climate Action Tracker ranking:
Photo credits: Maldives tree planting: The Global Work Party – Maldives, CC BY 2.0, https://www.flickr.com/photos/nios/5069989882/US solar kids: BlackRockSolar, CC BY 2.0, https://www.flickr.com/photos/freethesun/8553349450Taiwan kids farming: Michel Bish, CC BY 2.0, https://www.flickr.com/photos/whirledkid/4509909152/
Thank you!
Suzanne Chew, Founder
www.littleclimate.com
Questions?