european distressed real estate conf 13 march09

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By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC [email protected] www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971 Scott L. Podvin: The European Distressed Real Estate Conference – 6-7 April 2009

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I am scheduled to speak in London, England at the European Distressed Real Estate Conference on April 6-7, 2009. I have attached a copy of my power point presentation, which will be distributed to each of the institutional investors attending the conference. The panel on which I sit is on Monday at the following time and shall cover the following subjects with session chair and panel participants, as set forth below. 17:30 EVALUATING INVESTMENTS IN THE HOTEL/CONDO HOTEL & LEISURE/CASINO SECTORS • Hotel Macroeconomic Situation & Historic Performance During Down Times • Are there Clusters of Distressed Hotels? • Complexities Involving Mixed-Use Projects with Lodging Elements • What are your Options with Broken Properties? • Chain Bankruptcies & Related Cross-Border Issues • Casino & Gaming Underperformers Session Chair: Chris Evans, Partner HAMILTON HOTEL PARTNERS Panel Participants: Ramsey Mankarious, Chief Executive Officer CEDAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LTD. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director THE CREST AT WATERFORD LAKES, LLC Charles Human, Managing Director HV HODGES WARD ELLIOTT Jochen D. Schäfer-Surén, Head of Hotels and Leisure-Fund Management INVESCO REAL ESTATE Carola Lueder, Real Estate Broker PROPERTIES USA REMAX PARTNERS Please feel free to visit our IMN"s website for more a detailed agenda: http://secure.imn.org/web_confe/index.cfm?sc=20090407_RE_0028&pg=Agenda I look forward to seeing or hearing from you with your comments to the attached, as I hope that we will be able to work together again soon. Best regards, Scott Podvin

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Page 1: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing DirectorThe Crest at Waterford Lakes, [email protected]://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971

Scott L. Podvin: The European Distressed Real Estate Conference – 6-7 April 2009

Page 2: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

THIS FUND SHALL FOCUS ON PURCHASING THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF ASSETS:

City-CoreDevelopment

Projects

Strategically located developments, located in the centre of a city, being large-scale and multi-phase developments typically consisting of residential, office, retail, entertainment and cultural properties with a blend of historic restoration and modern architecture.

Integrated Residential

Development Projects

Large-scale multi-family residential communities in secondary and tertiary markets located on main and main where we can implement a capital improvement program to push the rents. We will be prepared to purchase the asset on an all cash basis, but once the community has been stabilized, we shall lever it or dispose of the asset, triggering a repayment event.

PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUPRAISING $$100mm FUND

TO PURCHASE REAL ESTATE, DISTRESSED/OPPORTUNISTIC ASSETS

Broken Condos & Conversions or

Partially Constructed

Communities

There will be tremendous opportunities in busted condos and conversions while value add plays will also be easy to find. Likewise, there will be many projects with incomplete construction that we will be able to pick up on the cheap, complete construction and reposition the asset to create a vibrant working, walkable (with bike baths and all), sustainable and living community for working class people.

WE ARE NOW RAISING A $100,000,000 FUND TO PURCHASE DISTRESSED SELLER’S ASSETS

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference6-7 April, [email protected]://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 3: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

FUND RAISING CENTRAL

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

6-7 April 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 4: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUPCORE BUSINESS FOCUS

Our core business focus is the:

1. Identification;2. Acquisition; 3. Ownership; and 4. Operation of multi-family

residential and hospitality real estate properties.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

6-7 April 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 5: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Investors

1. Institutional Investors 2. Pension funds 3. Insurance companies 4. Endowments 5. Investment Banks 6. Commercial Banks 7. Fund of funds 8. High net worth individuals 9. Family offices 10. Sovereign wealth funds

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

6-7 April 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Our Preferred Shares pay cumulative preferential cash distributions at an annual rate of 9%.

Page 6: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Investment ObjectivesOBJECTIVES:

(1) acquire superior-located, middle-income, mutli-family residential properties that have been neglected or poorly managed; and

(2) increase profitability thru: (a) providing superior on-site property mngmnt, (b) improving physical appearance and living environment of the properties;(c) implementing renovation strategies in those instances where rental rate increases justify the costs; and,(d) implementing business development strategies to cross sell ancillary services

Scott L. PodvinIMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 7: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

OPPORTUNITIES IN DISTRESS

European surveys reflect that demand for real estate debt in general – and for distressed debt in particular – is at an all time high

Scott L. PodvinIMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 8: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

BLUE HORESHOE LOVES DISTRESS

Consider the dramatic tilt in institutional investors’ (2007) allocations:$44.5 billion targeted to domestic real estate

$36.3 billion to private real estate$24.7 billion to non-core (i.e., value-added and opportunistic),

$11.6 billion to core (i.e., stabilized apartment, industrial, office & retail)

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 9: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

VULTURES CIRCLING – EYEING THEIR PREY

In 2008, $87Bn was raised by 87 opportunistic or debt and distressed debt focused funds.

Of the $87Bn, U.S. accounted for $47MM and Europe for $15.8MM

$56.25Bn raised in 2006$73.75Bn raised in 2007

Scott L. PodvinIMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 10: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

SPATE OF RECORD FUND RAISINGS FOR DISTRESSED DEBT BY

1. Carlyle2. MGPA3. Blackstone4. Area Property Partners5. Palmer Capital – recently launched an

opportunity fund with GVA Grimley6. Schroders lookling to raise up to £1bn in

new equity

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 11: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

OTHERS ARE WAITINGON THE SIDELINES

COMPELLING STORYConsider the explosive growth of RE-oriented private equity: ApolloBlackstoneColony CapitalRamiusBain CapitalSAC CapitalRecent DealsLondon Opportunity FundStamford’s Opportunity Fund

Source: Kingsley Associates and Institutional Real Estate, Inc

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

6-7 April 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 12: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Opportunity Knocks• There will be more ways to earn opportunistic

returns going forward.

Collier capital - get inundated• Harbourvest - with calls w/• Goldman Sachs - cash strapped inv

• Paul Capital - selling private • Pantheon and - equity assets• Lexington partners –• RBS hires UBS to sell its almost £500mm of

investments in private equity funds

• $134Bn of private equity assets just on the balance sheet of 6 big money banks and AIG

• Source: super return conference Berlin, Germany

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

6-7 April 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin12

Goldman Sachs is asking investors in its $15bn private equity fund for approval to shift much of its remaining uninvested money into distressed debt in a stark indication of just how dysfunctional the buy-out business has become amid the meltdown in credit markets.

Page 13: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

SMART MONEY GOES TO FLORIDA

Terra Firma Capital Partners, increases assets under mngmnt fr €2bn to €11bn, w/ about 80% of its portfolio biz revenues from U.S.

SMART MONEY GOES TO THE U.S.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

6-7 April 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 14: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

CDS CLEANING SERVICE

Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 15: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONS--“THE GREAT LIQUIDATION”

- Industry size

The industry Managed approx. $2.5T at its peak in the summer of 2008.[1]

Global credit crunch has caused assets under management (AUM) to fall sharply through a combination of trading losses and the withdrawal of assets from funds by investors.[2]

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 16: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

OFFSHORE HEDGE FUNDS At end-2007, 52% of the number

of hedge funds were registered offshore.

Most popular offshore locations: Cayman Islands (57%); British Virgin Islands (16%)

and;Bermuda (11%).

The other offshore centers are the Isle of Man and Mauritius.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin

Page 17: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

ONSHORE HEDGE FUNDS The US was the most popular

onshore location (with funds mostly registered in Delaware) accounting for 65% of the number of onshore funds, followed by Europe with 31%.[3]

HUGE OUTFLOWS, NO INFLOW

OPPORTUNITY IS HIDDEN IN THE OUTFLOW!

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin

Page 18: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

HEDGE FUNDLIQUIDATION SALES

Now large numbers of funds are accelerating or preparing plans to hand back cash to investors.

These funds include:

Drake Management, the New York manager, Centaurus Capital in London, London Diversified Fund Management and many

convertible bond specialists, including Howard Fischer’s Basso Capital in Stamford, Connecticut, and Jeremy Herrmann’s Ferox Capital Management in London.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin

Page 19: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

TARGET PRACTICEHIT THE HEDGE

DE SHAW – LARGEST US HEDGE FUND -- APPOINTS INDEPENDENT ADMINISTRATOR

MILLENIUM MNGMNT,

$11Bn NY HEDGE FUND,

APPTS LONDON’S

GLOBEOP, AS IND.

ADMIN

UNION BANCAIRE PRIVEE, The 2d Biggest Inv. in Hedge Funds (& a major loser from Madoff), warns others to appoint indep. admins

These guys should be selling soon!

Funds without independent administrators:

1) ESL Investments, run by Eddie Lampert 2) Renaissance Technologies,

run by billionaire Jim Simons

3) Chicago Citadel, run by Ken Griffin 4) SAC CAPITAL, run by

billionaire Steven Cohen 5) Cerberus

6) HBK Capital, Dallas, Tx 7) Caxton Associates, run

by billionaire Bruce Kovner

These are the targets!!!Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 20: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

TIME FOR A MARKET STABILITY REGULATOR

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 21: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

PRIV. EQUITY FIRMS MAKE THE BEST SELLERS/JV PARTNERS

Scott L. Podvin IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference: 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

1 The Carlyle Group Washington DC $ 32.5

2 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts New York $ 31.1

3 Goldman Sachs Princ Invmt Area NY $ 31.0

4 The Blackstone Group New York $ 28.36

5 TPG Capital Fort Worth $ 23.5

6 Permira London $ 21.47

7 Apax Partners London $ 18.85

8 Bain Capital Boston $ 17.3

9 Providence Equity Partners Prov, RI $ 16.36

10 CVC Capital Partners London $ 15.65

11 Cinven London $ 15.07

12 Apollo Management New York $ 13.9

13 3i Group London $ 13.37

14 Warburg Pincus New York $ 13.3

15 Terra Firma Capital Partners London $ 12.9

16 Hellman & Friedman San Fran $ 12.0

17 CCMP Capital NY $ 11.7

18 Gen. Atlantic Greenwich, CT $ 11.4

19 Silver Lake Prtnrs Menlo Park, CA $ 11.0

20 Teachers' Priv Capital Toronto $ 10.78

21 EQT Partners Stockholm $ 10.28

22 1st Reserve Corp Greenwich, CT$ 10.1

23 American Capital Bethesda, MD $ 9.57

24 Charterhouse Cap Prtnrs London $ 9.0

25 Lehman Bros Priv. Eq. NY $ 8.5

26 Candover London $ 8.29

27 Fortress Invstmnt Group NY $ 8.26

28 Sun Cap. Prtnrs Boca Raton, FL $ 8.0

29 BC Partners London $ 7.9

30 Thomas H. Lee Partners Boston $ 7.5

Page 22: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Private Equity Fund Diagram

Scott L. PodvinIMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 23: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKETFOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETS

Types of Secondary Transactions

2.1 Sale of LP Ints

2.2 Sale of Direct Ints

Driven by strong demand for private equity exposure, a sig. amount of capital has been committed to dedicated secondary market funds from investors looking to increase and diversify their private equity exposure

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

6-7 April 2009

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 24: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

FOUR POCKETS OF DEMANDLondon-based private equity house Benson Elliot Capital Management has closed Benson Elliot Real Estate Partners III, a pan-European distressed real estate fund. The fund had a target size of €500 million at its 2008:Q3 launch, and has managed to raise around €510 million, officials at the firm said.

1.Opportunity Funds that have been established to buy real estate equity

2.Newer Opp. Funds that have been created as dedicated debt investors

3.Private Equity looking at real estate debt

4.Real Estate Companies buy back their own debt or debt of others

Scott L. PodvinIMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 25: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

What Should An Investor Do?

• Core funds, particularly newer vintage funds, will begin to see more attractive pricing for acquisitions.

• Existing core assets will begin to see the benefit of slowing development as we move into 2009-10.

• REITs in US, Europe and Asia take a beating during 2007-08. So, we are approaching the time for pension funds, endowments, REITS, and other qualified investors to rebalance/add to real estate positions.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference April 6-7, 2009 [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 26: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

• US deals dropped from 154 to 99 while UK deals fell from 74 to 50

• Securitization trusts hold $1.5T of subprime and alt-A loans, $400B of which are delinquent

• 5 Canadian Banks –RBC, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank and Bank of Montreal –put investment banks under same umbrella

• Capital Markets are closed

• European Recession Deepening and UE rising

• Europe's recession risks lasting into 2010

• European Central Bank's decision last week to revise downwards its 2010 growth forecast for eurozone countries from 1 per cent to zero.

• Since the world financial crisis exploded in September, three European governments have fallen - in Belgium, Latvia and Iceland, which is not a EU member but could soon apply to join.

• Europe risks being the last region to pull itself out of recession unless it can present a unified front on the economic crisis.

• Germany sees sharp (20.7% (Jan – Jan)) drop in exports, the driver for the region’s largest economy.

• IMF is expected to borrow $100Bn from Japan and may even issue bonds, an unprecedented step in its 64-yr history

• Russia to supervise a consolidation plan that would see the number of banks cut from 1,100 to 500.

• Global financial tsunami batters Hong Kong, as it falls into recession

Capital Market Conditions Drive Outlook

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

26

Page 27: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Source: Cartoonbank.com

2009 is Going to be Painful for Many

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference,

6-7 April 2009: www.TheCrestLife.com

[email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 28: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

• FDIC had $18.8Bn in depo ins fund at end of 4th qtr to protect about $4.8T of ins deposits

• 14 banks have failed this yr, bringing total to 35 since Jly

• At end of 4th qtr, 252 banks and thrifts on govt’s problem list (534 banks failed in 1989)

• Banks are charging fees of 2.5 to 3.5% on ave for a solid issuer n the current market.

• Unemployment ____________

• Banks are syndicating more risk (laying off 50 to 75%)

• IMF bails out Eastern Europe – Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia -- and Ukraine, Latvia, Hungary & Serbia

• Economic risks spike for Germany, Spain, UK, Ireland & certain “emerging” states

• Spain’s Unemployment reaches 15%

• Spain’s economic miracle is a mirage” : 1mm unsold new homes.

• RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008-- largest in British corporate history – after suffering heavy losses from hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the Dutch lender

Recession is here.

How deep and how long?

• Growth slows and region may fall into recession

• Is it different this time or is Asia in denial?

• Warnings signs from Hong Kong & Vietnam, slower growth showing in Australia and Japan, although China and India forge ahead

Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

28

BALKANIZATION OF EUROPEAN FINANCE?• European CDS

market is overrun by PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain

Sovereign Defaults: about ¼ if S&Ps rated sovereigns are on negative outlook – the highest proportion ever

Page 29: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

• Regulators will continue to require that banks maintain a min. 6% Tier 1 capital ratio, 3% of which should come from common stock.

• Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

• One in 4 banks not profitable in 2008, highest level in 25 yrs

• Dollar index rises

• Ireland bails out two largest lenders, Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland, after it nationalized Anglo Irish Bank, the 3rd largest bank.

• Belgium’s Fortis gets nationalized and sold to BNP Paribas of France

• Britain in deep recession and could shrink by as much as 4% in 1st ½ yr – pound sank as much as 3% vs. the dollar

• Poland’s Zloty falls 14% vs. euro

• China’s Export’s Plunge 17.5%, but remains resilient, as trade surplus hovers at $39.1Bn

• Japan shows its economy contracted 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in the 4th Qtr

CRISIS STARTS IN U.S. BUT TURNS INTO CATASTROPHE IN & AROUND EUROPE

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

29

Russian Public and private institutions need to refinance $117.1Bn in bank loans and bonds this year

Page 30: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

RECOVERY CHECKLIST: In the works: Among EU initiatives to

combat the crisis are:● A recovery plan costing €200bn ($263m, £188bn), of which €170bn stems from national governments ● Spending by means of “automatic stabilisers” (unemployment benefits and other social security payments) worth about €200bn

Recapitalising banks – €300bn

● Bank guarantees – €2,500bn

● Aid for central and eastern Europe – a €25bn facility, of which €6.5bn is already being disbursed to Hungary and €3.1bn to Latvia

● Support for the car industry – €7bn in loans expected from the European Investment Bank

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 31: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

UNITED KINGDOM1. London is Europe’s leading centre for

hedge fund managers, with three-quarters of European hedge fund investments, about $400bn (£200bn), at the end of 2007.

2. Unemployment has soared to above 2m for the first time since 1997.

3. London won market share from continental exchanges and remained the most successful market in Europe for initial pubic offerings in 2008.

4. Britain is set to have the longest recession of all the major economies.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 32: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

UNITED KINGDOM5. Britain will invest $73 Bn in its banks;

6. Britain decided that the Royal Bank of Scotland, Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley are, in effect, public corporations because the gov’t has sig. control over their operations.

7.Ave. UK home is now £195,724, down more than £25,000 in the last year, according to DCLG.

8. House prices down:Ireland down 14.3%England down 11.8%. West Midlands down 14.1% London down 13.9%.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 33: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

OPPORTUNITY LIES BENEATH THE SURFACE

RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008-- largest in British corporate history – after suffering heavy losses from hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the Dutch lender

Lloyds– including HBOS -- in worse shape than RBS after purchasing Halifax Bank of Scotland – UK govt’s stake NOW reaches 77%

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 34: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Angela Merkel Backs Germany’s BanksGERMANY OPTS FOR LOAN GUARANTEES, NOT DIRECT STAKE IN BANKS

In Berlin, German leaders unveiled a 480 billion package consisting mostly of loan guarantees, but no stimulus plan

Unlike the British blueprint, however, the plan announced by Ms. Merkel does not call for Berlin to acquire direct stakes in German banks.

Instead, the German approach offers €400Bn in guarantees for inter-bank loans and another €80Bn for direct injections of capital to restore weakened balance sheets and purchase the toxic, illiquid assets.

Reichmuth & Co are shutting Madoff-hit funds of hedge funds.

In 2002 Germany introduced the single European currency, the euro.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 35: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

GERMANY UPS THE ANTE TOOThe German gov’t has done a lot with a €50Bn

stimulus for consumption, €115Bn for stability to the real economy, and €400Bn in stabilizing financial institutions.

Many funds of hedge funds are already on the block or are being shut down with Deutsche Bank Closing its Topiary unit and Spain’s BBVA closing its Altitude JV.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 36: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

VIVA LA FRANCEFRANCE AGREES TO €360Bn FOR

BAIL-OUTS

1MM French demonstrators staged W. Europe’s biggest public protest

French gov’t creates fund to guarantee debt for up to 5yrs

To obtain these funds, Banks pledge collateral, including debt currently not accepted as collateral by the ECB.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 37: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

SARKOZY VOTES AGAINST ADDITIONAL STIMULUS

In addition, a 2d French state-sponsored company will provide up to €40 Bn in direct capital injections to banks that request it, in exchange for handing over equity stakes in the debtor.

No short term stimulus plan. The combined budget deficit

of the eurozone’s four biggest countries – Germany, France, Italy and Spain – will hit 6.4% of GDP in 2010, up from 5.8% in 2009.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 38: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

EURO-FACTS The bailout packages are roughly similar in economic

impact:

1.3.3 percent of GDP in Germany,

2.2.1 percent in France, and 3.2.9 percent in Britain, according to Capital Economics in London

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 39: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

EURO-FACTS CONT-While Europe’s biggest economies led the way:Austria makes €100Bn available for

recapitalizations and loan guarantees; Spain insures up to €100Bn in bank

debt; & Netherlands threw €220Bn into the

mix.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 40: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

BIG DEBT By 2012, the ratio of gross public debt to gross

domestic product could be: 117% in Italy; 97% in the US; 80% in France; 79% in Germany; & 75% in the UK. 224% in Japan

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 41: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

ALL IN For Germany, France, the Netherlands and

Austria — countries whose combined economies are just over half the size of the United States’ — state guarantees and capital injections reach 1.3 trillion euros, according to Holger Schmieding, chief European economist for Bank of America in London.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 42: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

WHO HAS THE MOST DEBT1. Ukraine- $40Bn in loans with $28.8Bn in

reserve2. Hungary-$35Bn in loans with $31Bn in reserve3. Turkey— $100Bn in loans with $70Bn in reserve4. Asia—$775Bn in loans (highest external debt to

roll over)

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 43: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

NOT MUCH BETTER IN THE U.S.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 44: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Public Law 110-343/HR 1424SON OF TARP IS BORNE

Effective October 3, 2008, this 169-page law created a $700 billion dollar Troubled Assets Relief Program under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (division A), and also enacted the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (division B), Tax Extenders and Alternative Minimum Tax Relief Act of 2008 (division C)

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 45: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09
Page 46: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Expenditures and Commitments

1. As of February 9, 2009, $388 billion had been allotted, and $296 billion spent, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Among the money committed, includes:[26]

2. $250 billion to purchase bank equity shares through the Capital Purchase Program ($195 billion spent);

3. $40 billion to purchase preferred shares of American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) through the program for Systemically Significant Failing Institutions ($40 billion spent);

4. $20 billion to back any losses that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York might incur under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (none spent);

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 47: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Expenditures and Commitments Cont.

4. $40Bn in stock purchases of Citigroup and Bank of America ($20Bn each) through the Targeted Investment Program ($40Bn spent)

5. $12.5Bn in loan guarantees for Citigroup ($5Bn) and Bank of America ($7.5Bn) through the Asset Guarantee Program (none spent);

6. $25Bn in loans to autos and their financing arms through the Automotive Industry Financing Program ($21 billion spent)

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 48: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

TARP TIMELINEOn Nov. 12, 2008, Sec. of the Treasury Hank Paulson indicates

reviving the securitization market for consumer credit is a new priority

On Dec. 19, 2008, President Bush, declares TARP funds may be spent on any program he deems necessary; and requests TARP funds to support the auto industry.

On Jan. 15, 2009, Treasury issues interim final rules for reporting and record keeping.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 49: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

TARP TIMELINE CONT-On 21/Jan/09, Treasury announced new

regulations regarding disclosure and mitigation of conflicts of interest in TARP contracting.

On 5/Feb/09, U.S. Sen. approves changes to TARP, prohibiting firms receiving TARP funds from paying bonuses to their 25 highest-paid employees.

On 10/feb/09, Sec. Treasury Timothy Geithner outlined his plan to use $300Bn of which $50 billion for foreclosure mitigation and the rest to fund private investors to buy toxic assets from banks.

Scott L. Podvin IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 50: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

BUY A TOASTER, GET A FREE BANK

Scott L. Podvin IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 51: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09
Page 52: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

NATIONALIZING THE BANKING SYSTEM

Total losses now exceed impact of RTC

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 53: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Lender’s Brace for Global Cooling

PRE-CREDIT CRISIS TODAY 2008

MAX LOAN TO VALUE/LOAN TO COST 70%-75% 60%

MIN DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE RATIO 1.05x 1.20x

NOI UNDERWRITING Borrowers Pro forma NOI Current in-Place NOI

SPREADS 85-125 bps 250-350 bps

LOAN PROCEEDSSized using

I/O DSCRSized using Amortizing DSCR

AMORTIZATION 10 Years I/O3 Years I/O on 10 Year Loan

LOAN REQUIREMENTS MinimalRequires Structuring (holdbacks,

earn outs, TI escrows)

SYNDICATION RISK (Large Loans) Underwritten, Lead Bank Lender Best Efforts, Borrower

Scott L. PodvinIMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 54: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

NOW THAT I’VE FOUND MY PEARL, THE UNIVERSE IS MY OYSTER

Page 55: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

So, How Should I Price Non-Core Real Estate:

Identify components of asset-level returns,

Understand impact of financial leverage,

Examine effects of transaction costs; and

Examine effects of JV structures.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate ConferenceApril 6-7, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 56: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

REAL ESTATE FUNDS – THE ANATOMY OF THE DEAL

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate ConferenceApril 6-7, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 57: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

What to Look for in a REAL ESTATE FUND

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate ConferenceApril 6-7, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

ExperienceSkillsContactsPractical problem solvingReputationTeam Capacity$$ Balance Sheet $$

Page 58: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Alignment of Interests: FUND & REAL ESTATE COMPANY

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate ConferenceApril 6-7, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Fund ObjectivesFund LifeLeverage and Financing GuaranteesManagement Style and ControlTax ConsiderationsDealing with Unexpected Issues

THE CHEMISTRY COUNTS

Page 59: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

BUSINESS PLANWe will acquire, own & operate multi-family residential

properties. We plan to own five (5) multi-family residential

properties. We will acquire additional properties meeting certain

objectives described in our prospectus in the section entitled ‘‘Investment Guidelines.’’

We plan to finance the acquisition of these add’l properties mostly through banks

No commitments from any lenders with respect to a credit facility at this time.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate ConferenceApril 6-7, [email protected]; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Page 60: European Distressed Real Estate Conf 13 March09

Take Care of Your Family

Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC

[email protected]: (305) 793-5762Fax: (305) 665-3971