etransform africa: icts and climate change

Transformation-Ready: The Strategic Application of Information and Communication Technologies to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

(eTransform Africa)Ben AkohJune 26-28, 2011

Outline• Project Outlay

– Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation – Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in

Africa – Some Early Research Findings in Senegal, Uganda and

Malawi• Methodology• Some preliminary findings

– The Framework

• Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation• Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa• Country Case Studies

Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation• The Changing Climate• Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity• A taxonomy for Adaptation to Climate Change• Relationship between ICTS and Climate Change• ICTs and Adaptation• ICT tools relevant/Applicable to Climate Change

Adaptation• A Useful framework for examining ICTs and

Climate Change Adaptation

Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

• Climate Change in Africa• Adaptation to Climate Change in

Africa• The African ICT Environment• ICTs in Senegal, Uganda and Malawi• Implications for Considering ICTs

and Climate Change Adaptation

Part 3: Some Early Research Findings in Senegal, Uganda and Malawi

• Senegal: AfricaAdapt – Knowledge Management and Information Sharing for Climate Change Adaptation

• Uganda: ICTs and Adaptation to Climate Change in Crop Production

• Malawi: ICTs, Climate Change and Water Management

Methodology

• Data sources: – The Banks’own knowledge of ICTs and adaptation (African

Development Bank; InfoDev).– IISD’s current work in the area of adaptation, including: an on-

going review of current and planned adaptation action in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean.

– Concentrated literature review on ICTs and adaptation. – Consultations with selected international organizations active in

adaptation (IDS; DFID; IDRC; others): between 10 and 20 short email exchanges and phone/Skype interviews

– Consultations with IISD partners on the ground in Africa: up to 20 short email exchanges and phone/Skype interviews.

– A crowd sourcing/online survey of adaptation practitioners on global, continental and national level adaptation action

Methodology

• National Level Intervention– Senegal

• Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, local NGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (UNDP, AfricaAdapt, UNECA)

• Building on IISD’s existing and ongoing inquiry and stocktaking of web-based knowledge platforms for the integration of climate change adaptation into development policy-making and planning

Methodology• National Level Intervention

– Uganda• Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials,

local NGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (UNDP)

• Build on IISDs work with UNDP in prioritizing climate risk management options for sustainable crop production in rural districts in Uganda

• Participatory Scenarios Process involving all actors– Malawi

• Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, local NGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (DFID, Universities)

• Focus group event with key experts in the field

A few but important emerging points and

issues• A framework for examining ICTs

and Climate Change Adaptation• The broad range of ICTs in the

Climate Change Adaptation Field. • The absence of ICTs in most

NAPAs.

The Framework Emerged from a Juxtaposing of

1. A taxonomy for Adaptation to Climate Change (IPCC)• Addressing the drivers of Vulnerability• Building Adaptive Capacity of local and regional systems• Reducing and managing risks related to Climate Variability and

Change• Confronting climate change

2. A review of ICT Applications with Relevance to Climate Change Adaptation • Large to small scale ICT implementations• Early warning systems/Weather management/MET• Smart Systems/Sensor Networks• Geographic Information/Global Positioning systems• Knowledge Management and Information Sharing

A useful Framework for examining ICTs and CCA

A few but important emerging points and issues

• A framework for examining ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

• The broad range of ICTs in the Climate Change Adaptation Field.

• The absence of ICTs in most NAPAs. – These findings indicate a disconnect

between policy and practice and that the implementation of technology to address CCA must take on a more proactive approach than what presently exists.

• The changing climate– Rising temperatures: 11 of 12 warmest in last 12

years since record keeping began in 1850– Rising sea levels: 17cm total global rise– Melting ice caps: 2.7 percent shrinkage annually in

arctic sea since 1978. – Increased precipitation: More frequent floods and

cyclones in the past 30 years. Increased precipitations from 1900 – 2005.

Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

• ICTs contributions: Effects of ICTs on CC– Contributions of between 2 to 2.5% of total carbon

emissions – Increasing in a compounded annual growth rate of

approx.. 6%, the fastest of any industrial sector– Proportions of GHG emissions estimates will rise

from 17% (0.53 gigatones of Co2 in 2002) to 27% (1.43 gigatones in 2020) – GeSI.

– Growth as a result of increased access to ICTs will have more (emissions based) impacts on the developing world.


• Potential future s global emission scenarios (Nakicenovic et al, 2000)– A1: Future world of rapid economic growth, plateaued and declining

global population, and introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Emphasis on fossil-fuels, all energy sources (renewables and non-renewables).

– A2: Emergence of a heterogeneous world, fragmented economic growth and technological changes, continuously increasing global populations.

– B1: Same as A1 but with rapid changes in econmic structure towards service and information economy, introduction of clean and efficient resource-efficient technologies, emphasis on global solutions for economic, social and environmental sustainability.

– B2: Emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Continuously increasing population at a rate lower than A2, more diverse technological changes than in B1 and A1.


• Potential significant climatic changes with ecological, economic and social impact to take place during the century with various degrees of probability (IPCC):– Virtually certain (over 99% probability): Increase yields in

colder environments; relying on snow melts; reduced energy demand for heating, increased demand for cooling, declining air quality in cities.

– Very likely (over 90% probability): Reduced yield in warmer regions, increased danger of wildfire, increased heat related mortality, reduction in quality of life.

– Likely (over 66% probability): Damage to crops and soil erosions, inability to cultivate land due to waterlogging, disruptions of settlements due to flooding, intense tropical cyclones,


• Severity of impacts will depend on – effectiveness of GHGs mitigations efforts at global level– Overall development of present and future pathways

• Including vulnerability to stresses and availability of capacities to adapt

– Effectiveness of specific adaptation actions focusing on reducing impacts

• Recent cost estimates suggests that “that even with considerable mitigation efforts at the global level the cost between 2010 and 2050 of adapting to an approximately 2oC warmer world by 2050 is in the range of $70 billion to $100 billion a year” (World Bank). Equivalent to annual foreign aid from developed to developing countries.


• Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity (Some facts)– Climate change will impact everyone– Those in greater poverty are at greater risks from climate change impacts, and at a

greater risks of being adversely affected at an earlier stage– Poverty and development status are crucial determinants of access to entitlements

and resources and directly shapes vulnerability to risks (Eriksen and O’Brien, 2009)

• Definitions– Vulnerability to climate change: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or

unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

– Adaptation to climate change: [an] adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

– Adaptive capacity depends on access to resources that could help in responding to threats and exposures.

– Resilience: A systems ability to bounce back to a reference state after a disturbance


• Adaptation to Climate Change involves– A broad range of measures directed to a range of

climatic stimuli– Adaptation planning shares common features with risk

management– It is a collaborative process involving all stakeholders– It is no substitute for mitigation of climate change– Should be addressed as a proactive measure– Intimately connected with sustainable development and

to resilience– Requires an integrated approach and a long term

continual process involving all sectors of society


• In developing responses to climate change we distinguish between: – Addressing the drivers of vulnerability by reducing major

underlying causes of vulnerability – Building adaptive capacity of local and regional systems and

communities– Reducing and managing risks related to climate variability and

climate change, e.g. by increasing awareness and knowledge of stakeholders

– Confronting climate change by taking actions which respond exclusively to impacts known to be cause by climate change.

– This responses led to the emergence of the taxonomy or framework for examining climate change adaption and ICTs presented earlier.


• Relationships between ICTs and Climate Change – Direct or first order effects – the directs impacts of ICTs to

climate change – eg. Carbon emissions and use and disposal of ICT equipment and services

– Indirect or second order effects – the indirect impacts of ICTs that result from other industrial sectors or from the behaviours of end-users.

– Rebound effects – the elimination of gains resulting from apparent reduction in emissions, e.g. increased power consumption resulting from lower energy prices obtained through greater energy efficiency

– Societal or third order effects – resulting from large scale social and economic behaviour resulting from widespread and increased use of ICTs.


• Facts about ICTs and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa– Fairly low references to ICTs are mentioned in National

Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs) of most countries

– In cases where ICTs are mentioned, they focus on:• Creating climate change projections and databases of

climatic data• Developing and revising early warning systems • Creating monitoring systems for water quality, health

and diseases• Developing capacity-building and awareness raising

applications including information-sharing of climate date.


Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

• Implementations of regional projects with ICT components in Africa are at the following levels:– National – Regional – Continental

Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa: National

Country Specific role in the NAPAs Details on activities with relevance to ICT Areas of focus Benin Research and transfer of

technology including ICTs In the area of disaster preparedness; pest and disease forecast and control.

Agriculture and Food Security

Burkina Faso

Security of agricultural production through the use of appropriate technology packages in the South West and East

Strengthening of adaptive capacity and well-being of people through the recovery of degraded land and sustainable productive, diversified, and profitable agriculture by using Capacity building, Knowledge sharing (Technology transfer)

Agriculture and Food security

Ghana Information Support System for the Sustainable Management of the Coastal Zone Of Ghana

Provide the information required in support of the rationale management of the coastal zone including collecting more accurate data, creating maps

Coastal Management

Guinea Early warning systems Development of an early warning system for securing agricultural productivity by modelling, information generation

Early warning systems

Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : National

Mali NAPA includes two specific projects that are relevant for ICT on : experimental ponds and health information systems

Study of climate change impacts on small experimental ponds : to contribute to food sufficiency and resources protection based on hydrologic information on climate change impacts Information systems on the climate-related illnesses: Develop an information system to understand and monitor climate related illnesses

Agriculture/ Water resources Health

Namibia NAPA stresses the importance of integrating information on climate change in the existing policies and frameworks and for ICT disaster preparedness and agriculture include relevant priorities

Disaster risks management: including disaster risk preparedness, seasonal forecasting and flood forecasting, capacity building in spatial planning, and disaster insurance for the poor. Agriculture: Improve information dissemination around the effects of climate change, as well as improved forecasting and the establishment of Early Warning Systems, to encourage adaptation in the farming sector;

Agriculture Disaster preparedness


Niger In the NAPA for the ICT is specifically that support is needed to increase capacities of rural producers to agro meteorological information and integration of climatic information into the health sector on major climate sensitive diseases

Encourage farmers to use agro-meteorological information in their production activities, before making important decisions, in order to avoid sowing again and to increase yields. Integrated Food-Security Information System to be also developed to monitor food shortages and malnutrition Provide the health sector with relevant information that would be integrated into the various aspects of planning and operation management, and, to a larger extent, into the permanent health watch system especially on prevention and fight against malaria, meningitis

Agriculture, Health Capacity building

Rwanda Six immediate national adaptation projects were prioritized in the NAPA from which one has an ICT component

Set up information systems of hydro agro meteorological early warning system and rapid intervention: This project’s objective is to enhance hydro-agro-meteorological early warning systems and rapid interventions, and decrease the exposure of the population and sectors at risk of extreme events;

Early warning, disaster preparedness and capacity building


Togo NAPA specifically stressed the importance of ICTs for agriculture by providing agro-meteorological information and for early warning systems on floods

Adaptation of the agricultural production systems in three regions through the development of techniques that integrate climate change and improve agro-meteorological information to encourage farmers to take into account meteorological conditions in their daily activities to increase food security. Development of an early warning system for real time information on floods in the Maritime and Savanes regions to reinforce capacities of the meteorological national service and rural radio stations in order to establish meteorological forecasting to ensure an adequate response and to minimize risks.

Agriculture; Food security Early warning system

Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : Regional

Project/Activity Details of Activities with relevance to climate change adaptation

Area of Focus

Region

Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation: Five Pilot Projects

This project seeks to reduce the vulnerability of poor populations in sub Saharan Africa to climate change by mobilizing scientists to inform political decision-making. It will do so by means of five pilot projects in rural and urban populations. The project will emphasize the generation, organization and communication of information on the risks resulting from climate change, climate variability and extreme climatic events, as well as preparation for their effects on food security (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya) and water supply (South Africa, Burkina Faso)1 Implementing agency: UNEP Funders: IDRC and DFID

Mapping Water Agriculture (food)

Multinational (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa)

1 www.idrc.org/ccaa, ibid.

Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : Regional

Capacity-building and technical assistance for adaptation and use of household food and nutrition security monitoring tools

The Nutrition Division is providing training and technical assistance for the adaptation, use, analysis and interpretation of simple household food and nutrition security monitoring tools. The dimensions of household access to food and food consumption are insufficiently taken into consideration in information systems. Implementing agency: FAO Funders: EC

Agriculture (food)

Mozambique, Kenya, Malawi, West Bank and Gaza, Somalia, Ethiopia

The African ICT Environment

• Large growth in the mobile sector– SSA: 88million , 12.3/100 in 2000 to 333million, 41.4/100 in 2010.

Almost 1 subscription per adult– Almost 100% network geographical coverage by 2015 – ITU– Mobile networks will provide the principal communication medium

in Africa. – Backbone and backhaul infrastructure is shifting from wireless to

fibre optic technology– Mobiles will become the device of choice for internet access. 98%

of internet subscriptions in Kenya are mobile internet subscriptions– Broadband (fixed and mobile) is important for large scale

interventions including application to climate change. – However, broadband access is yet to match the pace in other

regions – 4% density in Africa compared to 70% in Europe (mobile and fixed) in 2010 - ITU


• Uganda– Liberalised telecom sector. Strong competition– Small and dense country hence almost 100% mobile coverage. – Low teledensities – 32.8% (2009)– 70% mobile connections in urban areas in a predominantly rural country– Lack of affordable last mile access to rural areas – Landlocked country – proactively accessing fibre through Kenya.

• Senegal– Higher subscription rates than Uganda and across Africa – 68.5% in 2011– Liberalised sector but Orange (former Sonatel) has majority market share

(60%)– Better broadband implementation and more affordable pricing. – Mobile devices offer greater confidence for use in Senegal than Uganda– Regulatory challenges still exist. ARTP still dependent on government.

Should implement more effective price regulation across the board


• Malawi– Less advance telecom sector than Senegal

and Uganda– Mobile subscription at 24%– Mobile tariffs much higher. – High cost of international bandwidth imply

higher broadband pricing– Transit negotiations ongoing. Might reduce

international bandwidth, internet prices and enable greater use of broadband


• Implications for Climate Change Adaptation– Can be used for information dissemination for short

term alarms such as flood warnings, guidance and to help people change behaviour or reduce vulnerability

– Can extend the potential for monitoring environmental risks and impacts

• Technical – Unattended remote monitoring by static devices, e.g. meteorological

• Human – Through crowdsourcing, monitoring of changing circumstances

– Adaptation Action based on information received• Enable people to communicate and coordinate better

Country Case Studies• Senegal. AfricaAdapt

– Independent bilingual network launched in 2009 focused exclusively on Africa

– Aim to facilitate the flow of CCA knowledge and sustainable livelihoods between researchers, policy makers, CSOs and communities vulnerable to climate variability

– Network is supported by a website listing face to face events allowing people to profile self and their adaptation actions

– Offers incentives to members to publish and develop specific adaptation projects from small grants

– Have ran 2 call for proposals. Received 500 responses from countries for $6.5 to 10K. Funded only 10.

– Places important emphasis on Indigenous knowledge and Adaptation (Banks may want to focus future research in this area – ICTs, IK and Adaptation).

Country Case Studies• Senegal. AfricaAdapt

– Challenges:• Harmonizing a few other knowledge sharing

platforms that currently exists. • Wealth of case studies exists in platform.

However still lacks in attempts to fit this knowledge into typical adaptation planning steps and project cycles.

• Web based platforms invariable target a small subsector of the African Society. Cross platform communication mechanisms between prevalent broadcast and communications technology may be required.

Country Case Studies• Uganda: Adaptation in Crop Production

– Limited research in understanding present and future potential impacts of climate risk in crop production for maize, beans and coffee.

– Project explores ICT use to support information sharing between key stakeholders to enhance adaptation action, and for environmental management such as irrigation, water flows and GIS for more efficient crop placement.

– Challenges• Managing and communicating CCA information flows 9e.g

changes in rainfall and temperature) from govt to people lack support.

• Broadcast technology still holds promise. And Human interface (community facilitators) significant as intermediary for disseminating information and knowledge

Country Case Studies• Malawi: Water Management and ICTs

– Existing projects using ICTs to research/create water balance model for Lake Malawi

– Use of wireless sensor networs to develop and implement self sustained, low cost online water quality monitoring system in sewage treatment works.

– More analysis following country focus group event next week.

Thank You

Ben Akoh, Project Manager, [email protected]

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