estimating private equity returns from limited partner cash flows
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Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows. Andrew Ang, Bingxu Chen, Will Goetzmann, Ludovic Phalippou. Q-Group, Apr 2014. Liquidating Harvard: A Cautionary Example. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows
Andrew Ang, Bingxu Chen, Will Goetzmann, Ludovic Phalippou
Q-Group, Apr 2014
Liquidating Harvard: A Cautionary Example
“Liquidating Harvard” Columbia Case available from http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/caseworks/node/236/Liquidating%2BHarvard
Endowment Performance (post Jack Meyer)
Harvard Endowment
Harvard Endowment
5
Harvard Endowment Asset Allocation June 30, 2008
Liquid 27% Dev Mkt Equity, Liquid Commodities, Govt BondsSemi-Liquid 35% Emg Mkt Equity, High-Yield Bonds, Hedge FundsIlliquid 39% Private Equity, Timber/Land, Real Estate
Total 100%
● Harvard was an early adopter of the “endowment” model based on diversification concepts extended to illiquid assets (thanks to Swensen, Leibowitz, and others)
“Returns” on Illiquid Assets
● Illiquid asset “returns” are not returns
● Harvard University President Faust, on the 22% loss between July 1 and October 31, 2008:
“Yet even the sobering figures is unlikely to capture the full extent of actual
losses for this period, because it does not reflect fully updated valuations in
certain managed asset classes, mostly notably private equity and real
estate.”
● Returns of illiquid alternatives are biased upwards, and their risk estimates are biased downwards
6
Infrequent Trading
● Infrequent trading biases volatility and beta estimates downwards.
7
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5Quarterly Sampling
Infrequent Trading
● Infrequent trading biases volatility and beta estimates downwards.
8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5Daily Sampling
Infrequent Trading
● Infrequent trading biases volatility and beta estimates downwards.
9
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5Daily vs Quarterly Sampling
Quarterly Sampling vol = 0.23
Daily Sampling vol = 0.28
Sample Selection Bias
● Selection biases the average return upwards, systematic risk downwards, and idiosyncratic volatility downwards.
10
Excess Market
Excess Return True
Sample Selection Bias
● Selection biases the average return upwards, systematic risk downwards, and idiosyncratic volatility downwards.
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Excess Market
Excess Return True
Fitted
Building a Private EquityReturn Index
“Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows” http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2356553
Current Approaches
Based on
● NAVs
● Deal-level
● IRRs
● Multiples
Do not represent returns, and not based on the actual cash flows received by LPs
13
Private Equity Returns
● Based on cashflows to LPs
– What you actually “eat”
– Data from Prequin and proprietary datasets
● Decompose into market and other factors, and the private equity-specific return (PE “alpha” or “premium”)
● Can be updated in “real time” to create a private equity return index
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How Does It Work?
● Suppose the private equity total return, g, follows
– rmt is the market return
– f is the return specific to PE
– Risk-free return is zero
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5% 1.5t mt tg r f
How Does It Work?
● Consider the cashflows of four funds, living between times t=0 to t=4
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Market
Return rmt
PE
factor ft
PE
return gt Fund 1 Fund 2 Fund 3 Fund 4
0 -100 -1001 5.6% -7.5% 5.9% 105.9 0 -100 -1002 10.0% -2.5% 17.5% -100 124.4 117.5 03 -8.2% 2.5% -4.8% 95.2 -100 111.94 12.8% 7.5% 31.7% 131.7
IRR 1% 12% 23% 6%
How Does It Work?
● According to a NPV condition, PV(Investments) = PV(Distributions)
● With four funds, there are four unknowns—can solve using a non-linear root solver
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1 2 1 1 2 3
1 2
2 3 2 2 3 4
2 3
100 105.9 95.2Fund 1: 100 ,
(1 )(1 ) (1 ) (1 )(1 )(1 )
124.4Fund 2: 100 ,
(1 )(1 )
100 117.5 131.7Fund 3: 100 ,
(1 )(1 ) (1 ) (1 )(1 )(1 )
111.9Fund 4: 100 .
(1 )(1 )
g g g g g g
g g
g g g g g g
g g
How Does It Work?
● If the private equity return, g, were constant then there would be four funds/equations with one unknown resulting in an over-identified system
● Similarly, if g is persistent (not iid), then we also require fewer funds/equations
● Identification is achieved by having funds with different cashflows at different start dates, and different end dates
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Model
● Total private equity return:
● Private equity-specific component is allowed to be persistent:
● NPV condition for distributions, D, and invested capital, I:
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't t tg F f
1t t f tf f
2 212
( )log( ) log ( , )
( )i
i
PV DPME N
PV I
2020
Time
Index ValuesPrivate Equity Total Return Index vs. US Index Funds
0.9
20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mar1993
Sep2010
Dec1993
Dec1994
Dec1995
Dec1996
Dec1997
Dec1998
Dec1999
Dec2000
Dec2001
Dec2002
Dec2003
Dec2004
Dec2005
Dec2006
Dec2007
Dec2008
Dec2009
Vanguard Small Cap Index Inv Vanguard 500 Index Inv PE total return
Comparison with Industry Indexes
● Our cash flow-implied returns are more volatile, with lower autocorrelations than industry indexes
21
2222
Time
Index ValuesDecomposition of Private Equity Return Index into Passive and Premium Components
0.9
20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mar1993
Sep2010
Dec1993
Dec1994
Dec1995
Dec1996
Dec1997
Dec1998
Dec1999
Dec2000
Dec2001
Dec2002
Dec2003
Dec2004
Dec2005
Dec2006
Dec2007
Dec2008
Dec2009
PE total return PE Premium PE Passive
2323
Time
Return ValuesPrivate Equity Premium
-3.0%
3.0%
-2.8%-2.6%-2.4%-2.2%-2.0%-1.8%-1.6%-1.4%-1.2%-1.0%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%
Jun1993
Sep2010
Dec1994
Dec1995
Dec1996
Dec1997
Dec1998
Dec1999
Dec2000
Dec2001
Dec2002
Dec2003
Dec2004
Dec2005
Dec2006
Dec2007
Dec2008
Dec2009
PE Premium
2424
Alphas
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Model
βmarket βsize βvalue βilliquidity In-sample
Alpha Persistence of Alpha
CAPM 1.41a 0.05a 0.40 0.24 0.01 0.19 3 factors (FF) 1.49a 0.41 0.09 0.04a 0.43 0.23 0.31 0.27 0.01 0.19 4 factors (PS) 1.41a 0.41 0.03 0.36 0.00 0.48 0.21 0.26 0.23 0.27 0.02 0.19 EW CAPM 1.42a -0.04a 0.45 0.18 0.01 0.19 EW FF 1.47a 0.40 -0.11 -0.04a 0.47 0.20 0.25 0.21 0.01 0.19 EW PS 1.40a 0.33 -0.19 0.26 -0.05a 0.47 0.22 0.30 0.25 0.27 0.02 0.19
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-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
IRRs
PE R
etur
ns
PE Returns vs IRRs (Corr = -0.03)
PE Returns (LH) IRRs (RH)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Mul
tiple
s
PE R
etur
ns
PE Returns vs Multiples (Corr = 0.04)
PE Returns (LH) Multiples (RH)
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 PMEs
PE R
etur
ns
PE Returns vs PMEs (Corr = 0.14)
PE Returns (LH) PMEs (RH)
Pro-Cyclical Investing in Private Equity
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Private Equity Returns Over the Business Cycle
29
Private Equity Returns
● Reported returns on PE are not returns!
● IRRs and multiples are not returns!
● Develop a time series of private equity values representing the returns to an investor (LP), not a fund, and not a manager (GP)
● Decompose private equity returns into passively replicable returns, and the unique return to private equity (“alpha” or “premium”)
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