equity valuations

27
Name of the company Type of company Valuation Methodology Price as per Valuation Methodology used Market Price as on 21-10-2016 NSE Comparison result Remarks Container Corporation of India Limited Profit making Logistics service provider Free Cash Flow to Equity discounted at the cost of equity Rs.320.93 Rs.1347.00 Overvalued 1.Year 2022 calculation represents the Terminal Value calculation. 2. The cost of equity has been calculated by arriving at the USD cost of equity and the infation differential between USD and India. ICICI Bank Limited Financial services conglomerate Free Cash Flow to Equity discounted at the cost of equity Rs. 124.77 Rs.277.95 Overvalued 1. The FCFE for the group calculation is based on the average profit after tax calculated for each company in the group. 2. The cost of equity has been calculated by arriving at the USD cost of equity and the infation differential between USD and India. LIC Housing Finance Limited Housing Finance company Free Cash Flow to Equity discounted at the cost of equity Rs.409.86 Rs.599.50 Overvalued 1.The FCFE has been calculated based on the forecasted growth in its assets and the equity capital required to generate that growth. 2.The cost of equity has been calculated by arriving at the USD cost of equity and the infation differential between USD and India. Balmer Lawrie and Company Limited Diversified company with interests in Industrial Packaging, Travel and Vacation, Greases and Lubricants, and Logistics. Relative Valuation using the Enterprise Value to Sales Ratio Rs.2985.33 Rs.697.00 Undervalued. 1. For each of the 4 businesses, a list of comparable firms was taken and relationship between EV/ Sales on one hand and the Operating Profit Margin (proxy for return)and Debt- Equity Ratio (proxy for risk) was obtained using multiple regression analysis. 2. The debt equity ratio for each business is obtained using the median debt equity ratio for the sector and the segmental information provided in the Annual Report of the company. 3. The reasons for the low valuation of the stock can be seen from a comparison between the business-wise OPM for Balmer Lawrie and the average OPM for the companies in each of the business that it is operating in Free Cash Flow to the Firm discounted at the cost of capital. Negative N A 1. Calculation of FCFF is based on the Asset Turnover Ratio and growth forecasts for its domestic sales and foreign sales . 2. The cost of debt used for the cost of capital calculation is based by applying a spread based on its credit rating. 2. The analysis is based on the optimistic assumption that the company will grow out of its debt overhang , maintaining a heathy market share in the domestic market and regaining its overseas market share. 3. Calculation of FCFF also considers the option overhang in the capital structure and uses the Black Scholes option valuation model to value the sam. Equity as an Option Rs.5.49 Overvalued 1. The Firm Value needed to calculate the value of equity as an option is based on Relative Valation using the EV/ Sales multiple. Suzlon Energy Limited Loss making company in the renewable energy sector Rs 14.85

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Page 1: Equity Valuations

Name of the company Type of company Valuation Methodology

Price as per Valuation Methodology used

Market Price as on 21-10-2016NSE Comparison result Remarks

Container Corporation of India Limited

Profit making Logistics service provider

Free Cash Flow to Equity discounted at the cost of equity Rs.320.93 Rs.1347.00 Overvalued

1.Year 2022 calculation represents theTerminal Value calculation.2. The cost of equity has been calculated by arriving at the USD cost of equity and the infation differential between USD and India.

ICICI Bank LimitedFinancial services conglomerate

Free Cash Flow to Equity discounted at the cost of equity Rs. 124.77 Rs.277.95 Overvalued

1. The FCFE for the group calculation isbased on the average profit after tax calculated for each company in the group.2. The cost of equity has been calculated by arriving at the USD cost of equity and the infation differential between USD and India.

LIC Housing Finance Limited Housing Finance company

Free Cash Flow to Equity discounted at the cost of equity Rs.409.86 Rs.599.50 Overvalued

1.The FCFE has been calculated based on the forecasted growth in its assets and the equity capital required to generate that growth.2.The cost of equity has been calculated by arriving at the USD cost of equity and the infation differential between USD and India.

Balmer Lawrie and Company Limited

Diversified company with interests in Industrial Packaging, Travel and Vacation, Greases and Lubricants, and Logistics.

Relative Valuation using the Enterprise Value to Sales Ratio Rs.2985.33 Rs.697.00 Undervalued.

1. For each of the 4 businesses, a list ofcomparable firms was taken and relationship between EV/ Sales on one hand and the Operating Profit Margin (proxy for return)and Debt- Equity Ratio (proxy for risk) was obtained using multiple regression analysis.2. The debt equity ratio for each businessis obtained using the median debt equity ratio for the sector and the segmental information provided in the Annual Report of the company. 3. The reasons for the low valuation ofthe stock can be seen from a comparison between the business-wise OPM for Balmer Lawrie and the average OPM for the companies in each of the business that it is operating in

Free Cash Flow to the Firm discounted at the cost of capital. Negative N A

1. Calculation of FCFF is based on theAsset Turnover Ratio and growth forecasts for its domestic sales and foreign sales .2. The cost of debt used for the cost ofcapital calculation is based by applying a spread based on its credit rating.2. The analysis is based on the optimistic assumption that the company will grow out of its debt overhang , maintaining a heathy market share in the domestic market and regaining its overseas market share.3. Calculation of FCFF also considers theoption overhang in the capital structure and uses the Black Scholes option valuation model to value the sam.

Equity as an Option Rs.5.49 Overvalued

1. The Firm Value needed to calculatethe value of equity as an option is based on Relative Valation using the EV/ Sales multiple.Suzlon Energy Limited

Loss making company in the renewable energy sector Rs 14.85

Page 2: Equity Valuations

CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA/ FORECASTS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs croresGrowth in net income after tax 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.09Net Income after tax 1031.38 1144.83 1270.77 1410.55 1565.71 1698.80ROE (in decimals) 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.16Equity reinvestment rate 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.65 0.52Equity reinvestment in amount 567.26 645.80 735.71 838.70 1013.11 882.63FCFE 464.12 499.03 535.06 571.84 552.60 816.17Beta Unlevered 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81Debt Equity Ratio 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03Levered Beta 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.90 1.00risk free rate 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58equity risk premium 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78cost of equity in US dollars 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.74 11.28 12.36cost of equity in INR (in %) 14.44 14.44 14.44 14.69 15.25 16.36Inflation rate in US 1.58%Inflation rate in INR 5.20%Year 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00PV of FCFE 405.56 381.03 356.99 332.67 278.94 10378.33

4502.02Sum of PV of FCFE 6257.21No of shares 194974191.00Intrinsic Value per share 320.93

CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED

Page 3: Equity Valuations

CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA/ ACTUALS in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs croresMonth and year for financial statement March 31 2016 March 31 2015 Mar 31, 2014 Mar 31, 2013 Mar 31, 2012Profit before exceptional item & extraordinary items and tax as per P and L 1072.70 1319.93 1253.60 1202.69Net Income before tax as per P and L 1072.21 1319.81 1253.60 1202.69Current Tax as per Pand L 299.84 319.01 268.02 241.60Deferred tax as per P and L -10.08 -55.05 29.04 31.47Total tax 289.76 263.96 297.06 273.07Net Income,i.e after tax; as per calculations 782.94 1055.97 956.54 929.62Net income after tax as per P & L 781.78 1054.44 949.86 930.61Interest and Dividend Income as per Cash Flow statement 290.23 323.45 311.09 300.77After tax interest and dividend income 211.80 258.76 237.37 232.48Non Cash Net Income 571.14 797.21 719.17 697.14MINUSCapex as per Cash Flow stataemnt 761.07 998.65 534.35 585.80Less: Depriciation as per cash flow stataement 402.73 410.89 193.38 176.32Net Capex 358.34 587.76 340.97 409.48MINUSChange in non cash WC as per Cash Flow statement 159.39 -105.91 232.42 -42.45ADDNew Debt raised as per Cash Flow stataement 47.58 17.18 0.00 10.01Less: debt Repayment(INCL INTEREST PAID)as per cash flow stataement 35.31 52.82 39.74 32.96Net Debt raised 12.27 -35.64 -39.74 -22.95FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY 65.68 279.72 106.04 307.16D/E ratiotax rate 0.27 0.20 0.24 0.23Equity reinvested 505.46 517.49 613.13 389.98Equity Reinvestment Rate 0.65 0.49 0.64 0.42Return on Equity= Net Income as per P and L / Book Value of equity as per balance sheet 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.17Return on Equity excl Cash= Non cash Net Income/ Non Cash Book Value of Equity 0.13 0.19 0.22 0.25BookValue of equity as per Balance Sheet 7975.20 7516.79 6889.75 6220.47 5,555.19Less: Cash and Marketable securities (Current Investments) as per Balance Sheet 1112.55 2950.99 2698.41 2945.95 2,761.63Non cash book value of equity 6862.65 4565.80 4191.34 3274.52 2793.56

Page 4: Equity Valuations

ICICI Bank Group Forecasts

Year Year PAT (in crores)Reinvestment Rate ROE Growth

Reinvestment (in Rs crores)

FCFE (in Rs crores)

Cost of equity(in %)

PV of FCFE (in crores)

cost of equity in decimals

2017 1 12391.98 0.39 31.00 12.00 4796.89 7595.08 23.39 6155.36 0.23392018 2 13817.05 0.40 29.00 11.50 5479.18 8337.88 21.93 5541.96 0.21932019 3 15371.47 0.43 26.00 11.25 6651.12 8720.35 20.82 4797.55 0.20822020 4 17062.33 0.43 25.50 11.00 7360.22 9702.11 19.70 4459.21 0.19702021 5 18853.88 0.48 22.00 10.50 8998.44 9855.44 18.58 3819.79 0.18582022 6 20739.27 0.50 20.00 10.00 10369.63 10369.63 18.58 3389.21 0.18582023 7 22502.11 0.44 19.50 8.50 9808.61 12693.50 18.03 3515.08 0.18032024 8 24358.53 0.44 18.75 8.25 10717.75 13640.78 17.47 3215.66 0.17472025 9 26246.32 0.46 17.00 7.75 11965.23 14281.08 16.91 2879.61 0.16912026 10 28214.79 0.46 16.35 7.50 12942.56 15272.23 16.35 2646.64 0.1635

TERMINAL VALUE 30330.90 0.46 16.35 7.50 13913.26 16417.64 16.35

32134.62PV of FCFE (in Rs crores) 72554.69No of shares in crores 581.5034519Intrinsic Value (in Rs/ )share 124.77

Cost of equity calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10risk free rate 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58beta 1.63 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1equity risk premium 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.77inflation rate -US (in %) 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58inflation rate- India (in %) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2cost of equity-in USD (in %) 19.14 17.74 16.66 15.58 14.50 14.50 13.97 13.43 12.89 12.35 cost of equity- in INR (in %) 23.39 21.93 20.82 19.70 18.58 18.58 18.03 17.47 16.91 16.35

ICICI BANK LIMITED

Page 5: Equity Valuations

ACTUALS

The details of the individual companies are as below:

ICICI Bank Group- Actuals

Name Average PAT Average FCFE% shareholding of

ICICI Group

Average PAT share belonging to ICICI

Groupin Rs. crores

Average of 5 years from 2012 to 2016

in Rs crores Average of 5 years from

2012 to 2016 in Rs croresICICI Bank standalone 9,100.57 2,172.92 100 9,100.57 Pru ICICI Life Insurance 1,546.30 1,489.37 54.89 848.77 ICICI Securities Primary Dealer 150.41 93.99 100 150.41 ICICI Securities Ltd 140.00 119.41 100 140.00 ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD 190.69 88.13 51 97.25 ICICI Lombard General Insurance 288.77 -40.19 63.82 184.29 ICICI Home Finance 216.02 178.26 100 216.02 ICICI Venture Funds Management Company Limited. 20.15 4.09 100 20.15 ICICI International Limited -0.36 -0.77 100 -0.36 ICICI Prudential Pension Funds Management Company Limited -0.29 -3.20 100 -0.29 ICICI Investment Management Company Limited -0.22 - 100 -0.22 ICICI Trusteeship Services Limited 0.04 - 100 0.04 ICICI Bank UK PLC 98.35 70.79 100 98.35 ICICI Bank Canada 209.17 445.44 100 209.17 ICICI Prudential Trust Limited 0.20 0.15 50.8 0.10 TOTAL 11,959.82 4,618.41 11,064.26

Page 6: Equity Valuations

ICICI BANK STANDALONE/ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012Rs in '000s Rs in '000s Rs in '000s Rs in '000s Rs in '000s

Profit before tax 1219,57,196.00 1581,99,234.00 1396,81,708.00 1139,66,897.00 880,34,223.00 Profit before tax and AFTER adjustments for non cash and provisions and non operating income 1953,13,721.00 1856,08,386.00 1568,61,048.00 1313,39,572.00 1091,68,978.00 Profit after tax 972,62,873.00 1117,53,549.00 981,04,770.00 832,54,727.00 646,52,572.00 Profit after tax as a % of Profit before tax and AFTER adj 49.80 60.21 62.54 63.39 59.22 Capital 116,31,656.00 115,96,608.00 115,50,446.00 115,36,362.00 115,27,683.00 Reserves and and Surplus 8856,57,157.00 7926,22,557.00 7205,17,086.00 6554,78,392.00 5925,00,885.00 TOTAL Share Capital (CLOSING) 8972,88,813.00 8042,19,165.00 7320,67,532.00 6670,14,754.00 6040,28,568.00 ASSETS 59567,57,385.00 54565,12,924.00 51572,44,656.00 46164,30,344.00 41328,77,009.00 Investments 16041,17,966.00 15812,92,196.00 17702,18,164.00 17139,35,993.00 15956,00,430.00 Advances 43526,39,419.00 38752,20,728.00 33870,26,492.00 29024,94,351.00 25372,76,579.00 Advances as a % of Investments 271.34 245.07 191.33 169.35 159.02 Contingent liabilities 90079,87,789.00 85197,76,091.00 78143,04,451.00 78998,93,146.00 91546,51,059.00 Interest earned 5273,94,348.00 4909,11,399.00 4417,81,528.00 4007,55,969.00 3354,26,522.00 Interest expended 3151,53,949.00 3005,15,294.00 2770,25,886.00 2620,91,848.00 2280,84,964.00 Average Rate of interest earned in % 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 Average rate of interest paid in % 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Net Interest Margin 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 Ratios Equity Capital/ (Investments + Advances ) Ratio 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.15 Growth in Share Capital in % 11.57 9.86 9.75 10.43 9.64 Growth in Assets in % 9.17 5.80 11.71 11.70 17.73 Return on Equity in % 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.12 Reinvestment in Amounts 930,69,648.00 721,51,633.00 650,52,778.00 629,86,186.00 531,22,124.00 Reinvestment Rate in % 0.96 0.65 0.66 0.76 0.82 Fundamental Growth rate in % 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Interest cost to interest income ratio 59.76 61.22 62.71 65.40 68.00 Total Borrowings 59623,30,865.00 53398,00,799.00 48667,27,109.00 43795,51,201.00 39566,48,634.00 Deposits 42142,57,086.00 36156,27,301.00 33191,36,570.00 29261,36,257.00 25549,99,561.00 Borrowings 17480,73,779.00 17241,73,498.00 15475,90,539.00 14534,14,944.00 14016,49,073.00 Deposits as a % of Borrowings 241.08 209.70 214.47 201.33 182.29 FCFE 41,93,225.00 396,01,916.00 330,51,992.00 202,68,541.00 115,30,448.00

Page 7: Equity Valuations

PRU ICICI LIFE INSURANCE / ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012(in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s) (in Rs '000s)

Premiums earned 1899,86,971.00 1516,04,465.00 1228,26,527.00 1341,72,372.00 1392,78,800.00 Cash Receipts from customers- Premiums and Other Receipts 2151,47,600.00 1783,69,212.00 1465,36,074.00 1600,89,949.00 1651,02,805.00 Benefits paid 1240,86,821.00 1224,57,230.00 1207,39,625.00 1328,78,583.00 845,43,802.00 Change in the valuation of policy liabilities 351,54,814.00 1795,61,032.00 566,17,344.00 259,30,741.00 170,25,834.00 Surplus in the Revenue Account after tax 134,20,678.00 116,20,461.00 125,99,650.00 144,96,763.00 133,19,646.00 Transer from Revenue Account to Shareholders Account 120,76,435.00 113,85,962.00 126,41,803.00 170,06,388.00 154,49,503.00 Contribution from Shareholders Account to Revenue Account - 4,14,567.00 9,46,523.00 54,12,458.00 34,98,006.00 Net Cash from Operating Activities 363,70,897.00 52,82,743.00 -236,82,181.00 -265,20,476.00 281,51,092.00 Profit After Tax 165,04,607.00 163,42,915.00 156,66,555.00 149,59,392.00 138,41,737.00 Transfer from Revenue account (Net= Transfer to MINUS Transfer from) as a % of the PAT 73.17 67.13 74.65 77.50 86.34Shareholders Funds- CLOSING 507,38,205.00 486,37,623.00 479,56,404.00 479,34,495.00 493,12,180.00 Share Capital 143,23,193.00 143,17,170.00 142,92,557.00 142,89,392.00 142,88,491.00 Reserves and Surplus 364,15,012.00 343,20,453.00 336,63,847.00 336,45,103.00 350,23,689.00 Policy Liability= Non Unit Liabilities+ Total inked liabilities (Total linked liabilities= provision for linked liabilities + funds for discontinued policies) 9554,95,047.00 9203,40,233.00 7407,79,201.00 6841,61,856.00 6582,31,115.00 Borrowings - - - - - Investments:-Policy Holders Investments 2151,56,198.00 1885,79,514.00 1445,67,076.00 1128,69,878.00 911,07,635.00 Policy Holders Assets to cover Linked Liabilities 7529,57,948.00 7477,75,359.00 6031,04,321.00 5752,08,274.00 5781,73,746.00 Income from investments- Net 120,83,680.00 1872,44,458.00 921,67,437.00 619,03,123.00 -14,18,084.00 Income from investments - Gross 381,69,027.00 354,02,718.00 316,93,174.00 279,92,314.00 262,62,326.00 Return earned for policy holders % 3.94 3.78 4.24 4.07 3.92 Shareholders Investments 621,56,674.00 585,67,710.00 535,27,703.00 491,99,607.00 347,70,112.00 Income from investments 59,95,701.00 53,35,126.00 39,73,950.00 41,60,630.00 22,02,900.00 Income from Investments- Gross 38,77,663.00 37,69,054.00 35,92,152.00 30,03,955.00 20,65,785.00 Return earned for shareholders % 6.24 6.44 6.71 6.11 5.94 Growth in Share Capital in % 4.32 1.42 0.05 -2.79 2.97 Return on Equity in % 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.30 0.29 Reinvestment in Amounts 21,00,582.00 6,81,219.00 21,909.00 -13,77,685.00 14,20,644.00 Reinvestment Rate in % 0.13 0.04 0.00 -0.09 0.10 Fundamental Growth rate in % 0.04 0.01 0.00 -0.03 0.03 Policy Assets / Policy Liabilities 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 Change in the valuation of policy liabilities/ Policy liabilities 3.68 19.51 7.64 3.79 2.59 FCFE 144,04,025.00 156,61,696.00 156,44,646.00 163,37,077.00 124,21,093.00

Page 8: Equity Valuations

ICICI Prudential Pension Funds Management Company Limited

Year Net Profit Op balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs

2012 -445000 1098,60,000 1094,15,000.00 -4,45,000 0

2013 -10,41,073 1094,15,000 2683,74,175.00 1589,59,175 -

1600,00,248 2014 -106,57,593 2683,74,175 2577,16,582.00 -106,57,593 0 2015 10,01,311 2577,16,582 2587,17,893.00 10,01,311 0 2016 -31,51,629 2587,17,893 2555,66,264.00 -31,51,629 0

ICICI Venture Funds Management Company Limited

Year Net ProfitOp balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs2012 683.6 1,172.50 1,681.80 509.30 174.302013 197.9 1,681.80 1,862.30 180.50 17.402014 329.8 1,862.30 2,180.40 318.10 11.702015 8.7 2,180.40 2,187.90 7.50 1.202016 -212.3 2,187.90 1,975.60 -212.30 0.00

ICICI International Limited

Year Net ProfitOp balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs in Rs 2012(in '000 for Net profit, op and closing balance AND in Rs for Increase/ Decrease and FCFE ) -4,411 73,356 82,692 9336000 -137,47,0002013 20,59,957 82,692 902,90,557 7598557 -55,38,6002014 -27,29,426 902,90,557 969,48,042 66,57,485 -93,86,9112015 -79,37,208 969,48,042 930,20,312 -39,27,730 -40,09,4782016 -48,88,424 930,20,312 937,20,546 7,00,234 -55,88,658

Page 9: Equity Valuations

ICICI Investment Management Company Limited

Year Net ProfitOp balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '0002012 17,156 1,26,310 1,43,466 17,156 02013 8,976 1,43,466 1,52,442 8,976 02014 1,899 1,52,442 1,54,341 1,899 02015 -20,253 1,54,341 1,34,088 -20,253 02016 -18,544 1,34,088 1,15,544 -18,544 0

ICICI Trusteeship Services Limited

Year Net ProfitOp balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '0002012 338 3,271 3,609 338 02013 470 3,609 4,079 470 02014 388 4,079 4,467 388 02015 321 4,467 4,788 321 02016 531 4,788 5,319 531 0

ICICI Bank UK PLC

Year Net ProfitOp balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs2012 1,291.70 34,766.00 36,102.90 1,337 -452013 864 36,102.90 37,279 1,176 -3122014 1,512 37,279 37,690 411 1,1012015 1,214 37,690 36,137 -1,553 2,7672016 36 36,137 36,144 7 29

ICICI Bank Canada

Year Net ProfitOp balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

as of 31st Dec and NOT 31st March in millions Rs. in millions Rs. in millions Rs.

in millions Rs.

in millions Rs.

2011 1,858.00 51,494.602012 2,473.30 51,494.60 58,822.20 7,327.60 -4,854.302013 2,816.30 58,822.20 55,530.60 -3,291.60 6,107.902014 1,776.10 55,530.60 45,797.60 -9,733.00 11,509.102015 1,301.00 45,797.60 42,043.70 -3,753.90 5,054.90

Page 10: Equity Valuations

ICICI Prudential Trust Limited

Year Net ProfitOp balance of Share Capital

Closing Balance of Share Capital

Increase/ Decrease in Share Capital FCFE

in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '000 in Rs '0002012 1,705 10653 10895 242 1,4632013 2,820 10895 11654 759 2,0612014 2,730 11654 12323 669 2,0612015 2,236 12323 12,436 113 2,1232016 349 12,436 12,787 351 -2

Page 11: Equity Valuations

ICICI SECURITIES PRIMARY DEALERSHIP LIMITED/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012

Rs in millions Rs in millions Rs in millions Rs in millions Rs in millions

Share Capital 1563.40 1563.40 1563.40 1563.40 1563.40Reserves and Surplus 7105.20 6543.00 5859.50 5227.10 4646.30Shareholders funds 8668.60 8106.40 7422.90 6790.50 6209.70Growth in Share Capital OR Reinvestment amount 562.20 683.50 632.40 580.80 361.70Growth in share capital % 6.94 9.21 9.31 9.35 6.19Reinvestment Rate 28.76 31.44 47.97 47.73 42.22Profit after tax 1954.70 2173.70 1318.30 1216.80 856.80ROE 24.11 29.28 19.41 19.60 14.65Fundamental Growth rate 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.06Long Term Borrowings 3800.00 2850.00 3650.00 3100.00 3400.00Short Term Borrowings 132143.50 127642.80 82213.30 78628.10 68171.00

Current maturities of Long term Borrowings 0.00 800.00 800.00 2000.00 1100.00Total Borrowings 135943.50 131292.80 86663.30 83728.10 72671.00Interest and Dividend Income 10315.30 9111.10 6764.10 6147.40 4460.20Profit and Loss on securities 2889.50 3528.00 1499.70 1898.60 1349.20Total 13204.80 12639.10 8263.80 8046.00 5809.40Total of "Revenue from Operations" 13602.30 13047.80 9016.40 8256.90 5972.30Interest earned 7.42 7.05 7.47 6.34 5.82Interest Expenses 9450.40 8642.40 6106.60 5636.60 4034.10Rate of interest paid 6.95 6.58 7.05 6.73 5.55Interest spread 0.47 0.47 0.42 -0.40 0.26Non Current Investments:

Govt Securities- market value and NOT the FV. The Schedule will have the market value 1808.80 7539.00 9379.90 3155.20 0.00Current Investments:Inventories - Securities held as stock in Trade- market value 137141.00 121715.60 81224.20 93864.90 76698.40Total Investments 138949.80 129254.60 90604.10 97020.10 76698.40

Purchases of Securities- market value 6863703.70 7438516.60 6384677.10 4132028.60 3138574.40Sales of securities- market value 6849067.00 7400878.10 6397837.30 4116853.30 3117656.10Borrowings as a multiple of share capital 15.68 16.20 11.68 12.33 11.70Investments as a multiple of share capital 16.03 15.94 12.21 14.29 12.35Short term borrowings as a % of stock in trade (current investments) 96.36 104.87 101.22 83.77 88.88FCFE 1392.50 1490.20 685.90 636.00 495.10

Page 12: Equity Valuations

ICICI SECURITIES LIMITED/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012in Rs million in Rs million in Rs million in Rs million in Rs million

Share Capital 1,610.70 1,610.70 1,610.70 2,110.70 2,110.70Reserves and Surplus 2,331.60 1,910.60 1,385.00 1,157.60 897.5Total 3942.3 3521.3 2995.7 3,268.30 3008.2Change in Share Capital/ Reinvestment 421 525.6 -272.6 260.1 95.4Net Profit 2,357.40 2,439.60 749.4 682.1 771.3Return on Equity 0.67 0.81 0.23 0.23 0.26Reinvestment Rate 0.18 0.22 -0.36 0.38 0.12Fundamental Growth rate 0.12 0.18 -0.08 0.09 0.03FCFE 1936.4 1914 1022 422 675.9

ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD/ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012

(in million Rs) (in million Rs) (in million Rs) (in million Rs) (in million Rs)Share Capital 176.5 176.5 176.5 176.5 176.5Reserves and Surplus 6,196.00 4,213.80 2,687.10 1,686.30 1,281.80Total 6372.5 4390.3 2863.6 1862.8 1458.3Change in Share Capital/ Reinvestment 1982.2 1526.7 1000.8 404.5 213.9Net Profit 3,256.90 2,468.20 1,826.90 1,102.00 880.6Net Profit growth 0.319544607 0.351031803 0.657803993 0.251419487 0.22595016Return on Equity 0.741839965 0.861922056 0.980727936 0.755674415 0.707650273Reinvestment Rate 0.608615555 0.61854793 0.547813236 0.367059891 0.242902566Fundamental Growth Rate 0.451495342 0.533140103 0.537255744 0.277377769 0.171890068FCFE 1,274.70 941.50 826.10 697.50 666.70

Page 13: Equity Valuations

ICICI LOMBARD GENERAL INSURANCE/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012(in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s)

Premium from direct businesswritten-net of service tax 809,07,071 667,77,956 685,61,645 613,39,850 515,01,386Net Premium (i.e after adjusting for premium on reinsurenace accepted and reinsurance ceded) 543,48,919 442,76,854 449,79,957 414,54,927 410,87,394change in reserve for unexpired risks 61,32,746 19,23,506 14,50,824 13,62,412 55,97,396Total premium earned (net) 482,16,173 423,53,348 435,29,133 400,92,515 354,89,998Premium received from policyholders, including advance receipt 880,77,170 735,25,871 716,75,899 635,84,389 569,51,264Claims paid- Direct 487,13,929 403,85,749 372,48,084 315,62,427 297,57,757Net Claims paid(i.e adj for claims on reinsurance accepted or reins ceded) 275,31,698 405,89,331 310,15,669 286,00,091 223,35,884Total Claims incurred (i.e adj for opening and closing balance of claims outstanding) 392,82,142 344,34,368 361,89,051 338,06,189 360,09,054Payments of claims (net of salvage) 494,12,253 561,71,861 442,08,778 405,73,786 344,64,546Operating Profit 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877Transfer to Shareholders' Account 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877Reserve for unexpired risks 307,35,580 246,02,834 226,79,328 212,28,505 198,66,094Claims Outstanding (gross) 754,07,234 656,23,094 707,70,449 652,32,383 615,48,048Reserve for premium deficiency 0 0 0 0 17,300Fair value change account 30,90,130 35,59,494 11,34,613 6,90,462 4,95,909Investments 1156,25,186 1019,97,176 930,89,768 781,25,187 603,36,193Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 16,02,584 14,31,530 11,29,758 10,04,751 8,72,639Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 65,94,781 58,86,745 53,76,232 40,59,412 26,38,263Total 8197365 7318275 6505990 5064163 3510902Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross; as a % of investments 7.089601568 7.17497806 6.988942114 6.482113124 5.818898783Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0Premium Deficiency 0 0 0 -17,300 -1,200Net Profit 50,74,467 53,56,145 51,13,559 30,57,753 -41,63,292Share Capital: 317,56,464 282,33,291 238,10,921 176,57,566 145,80,600Share capital 44,75,384 44,65,940 44,50,555 43,70,152 43,65,839Reserves and Surplus 272,81,080 237,67,351 193,60,366 142,16,414 142,01,514Misc expenditure to the extent not written off 0 0 0 0 0Debit balance in the P and L account 0 0 0 9,29,000 39,86,753Growth in Share Capital Reinvestment 3523173 4422370 6153355 3076966 -727665FCFE 15,51,294 9,33,775 -10,39,796 -19,213 -34,35,627Return on Equity 0.18 0.22 0.29 0.21 -0.27Equity Reinvestment rate 0.69 0.83 1.20 1.01 0.17Fundamental Growth Rate 0.12 0.19 0.35 0.21 -0.05

Page 14: Equity Valuations

ICICI HOME FINANCE/ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs in million Rs

Share Capital 10,987.50 10,987.50 10,987.50 10,987.50 10,987.50Reserves and Surplus 4,304.60 3,929.10 4,221.80 3,658.30 3,097.70Misc expenditure not written off 0 0 0 0 0P & L a/c debit balance 0 0 0 0 0Share Capital 15292.1 14916.6 15209.3 14645.8 14085.2Growth in Share Capital/ Reinvestement 375.5 -292.7 563.5 560.6 681Borrowings 74478 64093 53329.5 53404.2 55942.8Long term Borrowings 49,016.50 39,707.30 39,956.30 38,686.70 38,485.90Short term Borrowings 8,272.60 7,783.20 4,645.00 1,950.90 2,032.20Current maturities of long term debt 17,188.90 16,602.50 8,728.20 12766.6 15424.7Interest paid 6,547.10 5,701.10 5,245.60 5,290.10 6,101.70Interest rate paid % 8.79% 8.90% 9.84% 9.91% 10.91%Net profit 1,798.50 1,975.70 2,228.20 2,202.20 2,596.50Return on Equity 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.19FCFE 1423.00 2268.40 1664.70 1641.60 1915.50Reinvestment Rate 0.21 -0.15 0.25 0.25 0.26Fundamental Growth rate 0.03 -0.02 0.04 0.04 0.05

Page 15: Equity Valuations

ICICI LOMBARD GENERAL INSURANCE/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012(in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s) (in '000s)

Premium from direct businesswritten-net of service tax 809,07,071 667,77,956 685,61,645 613,39,850 515,01,386Net Premium (i.e after adjusting for premium on reinsurenace accepted and reinsurance ceded) 543,48,919 442,76,854 449,79,957 414,54,927 410,87,394change in reserve for unexpired risks 61,32,746 19,23,506 14,50,824 13,62,412 55,97,396Total premium earned (net) 482,16,173 423,53,348 435,29,133 400,92,515 354,89,998Premium received from policyholders, including advance receipt 880,77,170 735,25,871 716,75,899 635,84,389 569,51,264Claims paid- Direct 487,13,929 403,85,749 372,48,084 315,62,427 297,57,757Net Claims paid(i.e adj for claims on reinsurance accepted or reins ceded) 275,31,698 405,89,331 310,15,669 286,00,091 223,35,884Total Claims incurred (i.e adj for opening and closing balance of claims outstanding) 392,82,142 344,34,368 361,89,051 338,06,189 360,09,054Payments of claims (net of salvage) 494,12,253 561,71,861 442,08,778 405,73,786 344,64,546Operating Profit 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877Transfer to Shareholders' Account 48,02,189 56,55,472 42,74,739 27,21,088 -46,68,877Reserve for unexpired risks 307,35,580 246,02,834 226,79,328 212,28,505 198,66,094Claims Outstanding (gross) 754,07,234 656,23,094 707,70,449 652,32,383 615,48,048Reserve for premium deficiency 0 0 0 0 17,300Fair value change account 30,90,130 35,59,494 11,34,613 6,90,462 4,95,909Investments 1156,25,186 1019,97,176 930,89,768 781,25,187 603,36,193Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 16,02,584 14,31,530 11,29,758 10,04,751 8,72,639Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross 65,94,781 58,86,745 53,76,232 40,59,412 26,38,263Total 8197365 7318275 6505990 5064163 3510902Interest, Dividend & Rent – Gross; as a % of investments 7.089601568 7.17497806 6.988942114 6.482113124 5.818898783Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0Premium Deficiency 0 0 0 -17,300 -1,200Net Profit 50,74,467 53,56,145 51,13,559 30,57,753 -41,63,292Share Capital: 317,56,464 282,33,291 238,10,921 176,57,566 145,80,600Share capital 44,75,384 44,65,940 44,50,555 43,70,152 43,65,839Reserves and Surplus 272,81,080 237,67,351 193,60,366 142,16,414 142,01,514Misc expenditure to the extent not written off 0 0 0 0 0Debit balance in the P and L account 0 0 0 9,29,000 39,86,753Growth in Share Capital Reinvestment 3523173 4422370 6153355 3076966 -727665FCFE 15,51,294 9,33,775 -10,39,796 -19,213 -34,35,627Return on Equity 0.18 0.22 0.29 0.21 -0.27Equity Reinvestment rate 0.69 0.83 1.20 1.01 0.17Fundamental Growth Rate 0.12 0.19 0.35 0.21 -0.05

Page 16: Equity Valuations

LIC HOUSING FINANCE / FORECASTS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Terminal Value

Growth in Assets (in %) 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 23.00 21.00 19.00 18.00 10.00 8.50 Assets (in Rs. Lakhs) 156,46,649.86 195,58,312.33 244,47,890.41 305,59,863.01 381,99,828.77 469,85,789.38 568,52,805.15 676,54,838.13 798,32,708.99 878,15,979.89 952,80,338.19 Capital (in Rs. Lakhs) Assuming a Capital to Asset ratio of 9%. 14,08,198.49 17,60,248.11 22,00,310.14 27,50,387.67 34,37,984.59 42,28,721.04 51,16,752.46 60,88,935.43 71,84,943.81 79,03,438.19 85,75,230.44 Existing Capital (in Rs. Lakhs) 9,14,597.70 16,96,014.79 17,60,248.11 22,44,316.34 27,51,487.83 35,05,396.59 42,28,721.04 51,16,752.46 60,88,935.43 71,84,943.81 79,03,438.19 Reinvestment needed (in Rs. Lakhs) 4,93,600.79 64,233.32 4,40,062.03 5,06,071.33 6,86,496.76 7,23,324.45 8,88,031.42 9,72,182.97 10,96,008.38 7,18,494.38 6,71,792.25 Return on Equity (in %) 22.50 22.50 22.50 22.50 22.50 22.00 21.50 20.00 20.00 18.00 15.00 Profit after tax (in Rs. Lakhs) 2,05,784.48 3,81,603.33 3,96,055.82 5,04,971.18 6,19,084.76 7,71,187.25 9,09,175.02 10,23,350.49 12,17,787.09 12,93,289.89 11,85,515.73 FCFE (in Rs. Lakhs) -2,87,816.31 3,17,370.01 -44,006.20 -1,100.16 -67,412.00 47,862.80 21,143.61 51,167.52 1,21,778.71 5,74,795.50 5,13,723.48 Cost of equity risk free rate 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 beta 1.42 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 equity risk premium 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 10.78 inflation rate -india 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 inflation rate- US 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 cost of equity-in USD (in %) 16.85 16.67 16.13 15.59 15.06 14.52 13.98 13.44 12.90 12.36 cost of equity- in INR(in %) 17.46 17.27 16.71 16.15 15.59 15.03 14.48 13.92 13.36 12.80 cost of capital in decimals 0.1746 0.1727 0.1671 0.1615 0.1559 0.1503 0.1448 0.1392 0.1336 0.1280 1 + cost of capital in decimals 1.1746 1.1727 1.1671 1.1615 1.1559 1.1503 1.1448 1.1392 1.1336 1.1280

PV of FCFE (in Rs. Lakhs) -2,45,043.04 2,30,420.04 -27,375.87 -589.24 -31,235.40 19,278.99 7,439.68 15,804.53 33,182.09 1,57,394.50 79,03,438.19

19,09,138.68 Total FCFE (in Rs. 20,68,414.96 No of shares 5046,63,000.00 Intrinsic Value (Rs./share) 409.86

LIC HOUSING FINANCE / ACTUALS 2016 (in Rs. lakhs) 2015(in Rs.lakhs) 2014 (in Rs. lakhs) 2013 (in Rs. lakhs) 2012 (in Rs. lakhs) 2011( in Rs.) 2010(in Rs) Share Capital 9,14,597.70 7,81,843.78 7,53,289.62 6,48,129.06 5,68,220.54 416910,41,272.00 338767,23,594.00 Profit after tax 1,66,079.05 1,38,618.87 1,31,718.63 1,02,320.66 91,419.61 97448,62,002.00 66217,60,807.00 Dividends 27,756.69 25,233.00 22,710.00 19,177.00 18,168.00 16613,00,000.00 14239,00,000.00 Dividend % 16.71 18.20 17.24 18.74 19.87 17.05 21.50 Retention % 83.29 81.80 82.76 81.26 80.13 82.95 78.50 Revenue from Operations 12,39,614.56 10,66,934.62 9,18,138.22 7,57,592.03 6,11,486.04 468008,58,227.00 345576,97,060.00 Interest Income 12,25,085.30 10,54,667.50 9,07,333.66 7,45,908.67 5,98,268.79 446965,56,020.00 328266,56,394.00 Interest cost 9,30,675.81 8,31,024.58 7,17,437.57 5,92,459.63 4,59,106.52 309771,00,788.00 239571,12,365.00 Ratios Equity Capital/ Total Assets Ratio (in %) 7.31 7.22 8.25 8.33 9.01 8.16 8.90 Growth in Share Capital 16.98 3.79 16.23 14.06 36.29 23.07 Growth in Assets 15.52 18.63 17.39 23.36 23.47 34.16 Return on Equity 21.24 18.40 20.32 18.01 21.93 28.77 Reinvestment 1,32,753.92 28,554.16 1,05,160.56 79,908.52 1,51,310.13 78,143.18 Reinvestment Rate 79.93 20.60 79.84 78.10 165.51 80.19 Fundamental Growth rate 16.98 3.79 16.23 14.06 36.29 23.07 Interest cost to interest income ratio 75.08 77.89 78.14 78.20 75.08 66.19 69.32 Total Borrowings 114,78,422.55 99,40,346.71 84,10,662.28 70,65,090.23 57,40,718.45 4625542,20,711.00 3562421,20,216.00 Long Term 90,65,813.59 80,51,855.04 67,71,232.88 56,26,793.67 46,11,129.74 4070060,87,696.00 3101498,22,039.00 Short Term 5,44,044.21 2,69,800.96 3,73,811.08 2,43,724.47 1,75,862.14 446222,40,744.00 374317,45,717.00 Current Maturities of Long term Debt 14,83,259.17 13,31,530.99 10,58,514.24 10,05,890.74 8,21,735.01 - - Temporary Book OverDraft 3,85,305.58 2,87,159.72 2,07,104.08 1,88,681.35 1,31,991.56 109258,92,271.00 86605,52,460.00 Interest rate paid 8.11 8.36 8.53 8.39 8.00 6.70 6.72 Interest rate received 9.79 9.73 9.93 9.59 9.48 8.75 8.62 Net Interest Margin 1.68 1.37 1.40 1.20 1.49 2.05 1.90

LIC HOUSING FINANCE LIMITED

Page 17: Equity Valuations

Calculation of value per share based on relative valuation using the EV/ Sales approach:

Calculations for business-wise Debt Equity Ratio:

As per Balance Sheet:

Borrowings as on 31Mar 2016

in lakhs (figures as per "Consolidated Subsidiary & Joint Venture Companies" in Consolidated Balance Sheet as at 2016.

Long term borrowings 6438.4 Short Term Borrowings 6686.02 Current Maturities of Long Term Debt 2923.36 Total Debt 16047.78 Equity 116767.92 Debt- Equity Ratio 0.137 Cash and Cash Equivalents 45751.45

Business wise split:

Total Industrial Packaging Travel and Vacation Greases and Lubricants LogisticsEV/ Sales arrived at based on regression equation 1.69488176 2.138324809 1.732092359 5.710877Sales (in Rs. Lakhs) 94823.07 124496.93 38403.39 57379.49EV (in Rs. Lakhs) 160713.89 266214.87 66518.22 327687.21Debt.(in Rs. Lakhs) 9957.94 44.58 3552.73 2492.53Equity MINUS Cash (in Rs. Lakhs) 805086.42 150755.95 266170.29 62965.49 325194.68Cash (Rs lakhs) 45751.45Equity (Rs lakhs) 850837.87No of shares 28500641Value (in Rs per share) based on Relative Valuation 2985.33

Business

Median debt-equity ratio

Segment Assets (Source: Annual report 2015-16)in Rs. lakhs

Total debt as per the median debt equity ratioin Rs. lakhs

Debt seperated business wisein Rs. lakhs

Equity(=Segment Assets MINUS Segment Debt)in Rs Lakhs debt equity ratio

Industrial Packaging 0.81 64787.57 52477.93 9957.94 54829.63 0.182Travel and Vacation 0.01 23493.56 234.94 44.58 23448.98 0.002Lubricants and Greases 0.79 23699.66 18722.73 3552.73 20146.93 0.176Logistics 0.47 28248.47 13135.54 2492.53 25755.94 0.097

140229.26 84571.14 16047.78Note: 16047.78 124181.48

100% of the debt as per balance sheet spread over 70% of the assets as per segment info as the balance 30% o the assets are either "Other Assets" or "Unallocable Assets". To that extent, the debt equity ratio is overstated.

BALMER LAWRIE AND COMPANY LIMITED

Page 18: Equity Valuations

Regression output of EV/ Sales against Operating Profit Margin and Debt-Equity Ratio:

Comparison Table

Business Operating Profit Margin (%)

Debt equity ratio

Balmer and Lawrie –Greases and Lubricants 10.27 0.18 Median for the Lubricants and Greases industry 7.14 0.79 Average for the Lubricants and Greases industry 15.38 0.80

List of comparable firms for Greases and Lubricants business:Prices as on 06-Oct-2016

Company Price EV/ SalesOperating Margin (%)

Debt Equity Ratio

Castrol India Ltd. 474 6.69 30.04 0Goa Carbon Ltd. 135 0.65 3.88 2.82GP Petroleums Ltd. 82.95 1.12 7.03 0.86Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. 771.05 3.55 17.51 0.79Kavit Industries Ltd. 16.45 2.89 60.97 0.07Panama Petrochem Ltd. 76.55 0.47 6.72 0.21Savita Oil Technologies Ltd. 703.75 0.69 5.65 0.06Tide Water Oil Co. (India) Ltd. 5816.75 1.81 15.07 0.01Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 670.7 0.63 8.56 1.04Hindustan Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 451.55 0.43 6.57 2.1Indian Oil Corpn. Ltd. 650.2 0.63 7.14 0.81

Page 19: Equity Valuations

Regression output of EV/ Sales against Operating Profit Margin and Debt-Equity Ratio:

List of comparable firms for Industrial Packaging business:Prices as on 06-Oct-2016

Company Price EV/ Sales Operating Margin (%) Debt Equity RatioArrow Greentech Ltd. 488 21.5464 82.6 0Bajaj Steel Inds. Ltd. 139 0.3241 5.34 1.25Bright Brothers Ltd. 62.1 0.1798 2.05 0.08Essel Propack Ltd. 237.5 2.0613 20.18 0.76Flexituff International Ltd. 195 0.9611 12.33 1.7Gopala Polyplast Ltd. 28.5 0.3751 5.15 3.85Gujarat Raffia Inds. Ltd. 13.65 0.6931 11.13 1.47Innovative Tech Pack Ltd. 59.7 1.7709 18.46 1.13Jumbo Bag Ltd. 9.3 0.6182 8.32 3.45Kanpur Plastipack Ltd. 119.3 0.8575 15.26 0.93Karur KCP Packkagings Ltd. 57.05 0.9338 9.96 2.88KG Petrochem Ltd. 100.2 0.7627 14.36 2.3Mewar Polytex Ltd. 72.2 0.3808 7.55 0.42Mold-Tek Packaging Ltd. 215 2.1984 16.82 0.23MPL Plastics Ltd. 16.85 7.4022 4.31 -1.04Neo Corp International Ltd. 13.49 0.8517 10.19 1.29Ocean Agro (India) Ltd. 19 0.6761 5.78 0.19Orient Press Ltd. 64 0.5175 7.78 0.81Pankaj Polymers Ltd. 7.38 1.6636 4.79 0.99Pearl Polymers Ltd. 22.4 0.3669 5.46 0.56Raj Packaging Inds. Ltd. 37.5 0.6816 8.59 0.75Rishi Techtex Ltd. 30.35 0.4472 9.22 0.83Safari Industries (India) Ltd. 981.1 1.6170 6.96 0.64Shree Rama Multi-Tech Ltd. 8.55 1.5150 15.68 6.77Shri Jagdamba Polymers Ltd. 425 0.5766 12.17 1.81UFLEX Ltd. 313.95 0.6670 13.72 0.64Union Quality Plastics Ltd. 42.2 0.8361 -0.89 -1.67Vinayak Polycon International Ltd. 6.48 0.3123 7.34 0.74VIP Industries Ltd. 139.5 1.6351 9.25 0.04

Page 20: Equity Valuations

Comparison Table

Business

Operating Profit Margin(%) Debt equity ratio

Balmer Lawrie- Industrial Packaging 9.44 0.18Median for the Industrial Packaging industry 9.22 0.81Average for the Industrial Packaging industry 12.06 1.17

Page 21: Equity Valuations

Regression output of EV/ Sales against Operating Profit Margin and Debt-Equity Ratio:

Comparison Table

Business

Operating Profit Margin (%)

Debt equity ratio

Balmer Lawrie- Logistics 24.54 0.10 Median in the Logistics Industry 17.29 0.47 Average in the Logistics Industry 21.13 0.61

List of comparable firms for Logistics business:Prices as on 06-Oct-2016

Company Price EV/ Sales Operating Margin (%) Debt Equity RatioAegis Logistics Ltd. 153.25 2.37 8.76 0.37Allcargo Logistics Ltd. 180.75 0.86 9.73 0.25Arshiya International Ltd. 32 10.50 18.56 -2.56Chartered Logistics Ltd. 20.3 1.65 9.8 2.7Container Corpn. Of India Ltd. 1400.2 4.66 23.67 0.03Dredging Corpn. Of India Ltd. 411.25 3.21 28.79 0.67Gateway Distriparks Ltd. 259.4 10.44 25.64 0.18Kesar Terminals & Infrastructure Ltd. 247.2 8.51 61.08 1.49Mahasagar Travels Ltd. 8.31 0.25 7.51 1.16Navkar Corporation Ltd. 195.75 8.65 45.13 0.42North Eastern Carrying Corporation Ltd. 39.55 0.49 4.09 1.07Sical Logistics Ltd. 176.9 2.05 14.76 1.95Snowman Logistics Ltd. 64.35 5.21 22.25 0.33VRL Logistics Ltd. 311.65 1.78 16.02 0.51

Page 22: Equity Valuations

Regression output of EV/ Sales against Operating Profit Margin and Debt-Equity Ratio:

Comparison Table

Business Operating Profit Margin (%)

Debt equity ratio

Balmer Lawrie- Travel and Vacation 1.95 0.002 Median for the Travel and Vacations industry 13.18 0.010 Average for the Travel and Vacations industry 15.48 0.871

List of comparable firms for Travel and Vacations business:Prices as on 06-Oct-2016

Company Price EV/ Sales Operating Margin (%) Debt Equity RatioCox & Kings Ltd. 224.5 1.65 38.14 1.72Crown Tours Ltd. 46.3 1.99 5.05 0India Tourism Devp. Corpn. Ltd. 207.85 3.41 9.78 0.01International Travel House Ltd. 206.95 0.66 16.63 0Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd 457.45 6.45 18.79 3.57South Asian Enterprises Ltd. 7.05 1.07 13.18 0.01Thomas Cook (India) Ltd. 203.25 1.26 6.82 0.79

Page 23: Equity Valuations

Note: The option value referred to above represents the value of the management/ employee options issued by the company.

Equity Value of Suzlon:in Rs. crores

FCFF 1230.76Less: Debt 11430.76Less: Minority Interest 3.19Less: Option value calculated as below 0.07Add: Investments under the heading "CurrentAssets" 316.19Add: Cash and Bank balance 629.29Total -9257.78No of equity shares in crores 502.05Intrinsic Value per share (in Rs.) -18.44

SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED/ FORECASTS

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Terminal Value

in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. Crores in Rs. CroresSegment Revenue(India Sales + Other than India Sales) 11443.39 12381.08 14023.59 16719.89 20388.96 23513.12 29398.47 36746.21 45822.29 56486.04India sales 8649.18 8371.67 8270.49 8464.76 8543.68 6516.32 5942.89 5081.17 4657.74 5030.36Other than India Sales 2794.21 4009.41 5753.10 8255.13 11845.28 16996.80 23455.58 31665.04 41164.55 51455.68Market share in the domestic market 0.26 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05Total market in India 33266.06 38053.05 43528.88 49792.69 56957.85 65163.24 74286.10 84686.15 93154.77 100607.15Total Assets= Fixed Assets + WorkingCapital 7581.86 8203.14 9291.39 11077.83 13508.79 15578.72 19478.08 24346.35 30359.75 37425.07Incremental Total Assets. 3200.05 621.28 1088.25 1786.44 2430.96 2069.93 3899.36 4868.27 6013.40 7065.32EBIT (1-t) as a % of sales 8.00 9.00 9.50 10.50 12.00 13.00 14.00 14.50 15.00 15.50EBIT(1- T() 915.47 1114.30 1332.24 1755.59 2446.68 3056.71 4115.79 5328.20 6873.34 8755.34FCFF -2284.58 493.02 243.99 -30.85 15.71 986.78 216.42 459.93 859.95 1690.02Year 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00Cost of capital as per table below (in %) 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.97 23.50 23.00 22.50 20.00PV of the FCFF -1842.85 320.80 128.06 -13.06 5.37 271.84 49.39 87.79 138.44 14083.50

2084.98PV of the FCFF (in Rs. Crores) 1230.76

SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED

Page 24: Equity Valuations

COST OF CAPITAL CALCULATION in %risk free rate (10 year US govt bond rate) 1.58levered beta (levered beta is negative because of negative debt-equity ratio ; which is because of the negative equity in the company. -0.3423equity risk premium for India 10.78Cost of equity in USD -2.11inflation rate in US 1.58inflation rate in India 5.2Cost of equity in INR 1.378505918US risk free rate 1.58country default spread 1.36spread based on BBB- rating 3.25cost of debt in USD 6.19cost of debt in INR 9.97Share Capital -7082.77Debt 11430.76Total 4347.99Weighted Average Cost of Capital weighted by the amount of debt and capital in the capital structure. 23.97

Option Valuation:Number of options outstanding 40340800Exercise Period till 31-03-2019Average exercise price (in rs.) 26.955Volatility 12.48651Average stated maturity (in days) 908Stock price as on 04-10-2016 15.25interest rate (in %) 5.46Value per option (in Rs.) 0.018Value of the options outstanding (in Rs.) 726134.4Value of the options outstanding (in Rs. crores) 0.07

SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED/ ACTUALS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores in Rs crores

EBIT 902.61 -684.12 -303.91 -1465.98 1309.35 402.88 1290.58 2799.59Tax rate (T) (effective tax rate) 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.34EBIT (1-T) 312.39 -684.12 -303.91 -1465.98 884.47 272.19 851.91 1848.01 EBIT (1-T) as a % of sales 3.27 -3.43 -1.49 -7.75 4.14 1.50 4.09 6.97Total Assets = Fixed Assets + Current Assets 4381.81 7758.57 15383.10 16440.79 17715.53 16396.49 15800.12 21835.69

Page 25: Equity Valuations

Valuing Equity as an optionSuzlon Energy Ltd. Source Amount (in Rrs. Crores)

Market Capas on 10-Oct-2016 (valueresearchonline.com) 7421

Debt Annual Report for 2015-16 11489.3

Firm Value Market Cap + Debt 18910.3

Firm ValueCalculated from EV/ Sales approach as per below 12213.72

Life of the optionAverage tenor of the debt calculated as per below 1175

Volatility of firm value 12.48651Riskless interest rate (in %) 5.46Option Value of the equity (in crores) 2756.9Value of equity per share (in Rs.) 5.49

Page 26: Equity Valuations

Calculations for the life of the option:Source: Annual report 2015-16

Loan Type Loan TenorAmountin Rs crores

Tenor considered in days

Secured + unsecured upto 1 year upto 1 year 294.81 365

secured + unsecured from 2 to 5 years

average of 2 to 5 years is 3.5 years 7693.02 1277.5

secured + unsecured above 5 years

above 5 years is considered as 5 years 1533.26 1825

short term borrowings short term 1909.67 365Leases

less than one year 8.98 365

> 1 and < 5 years, so average is 3 yrs 25.84 1095> 5 years 23.72 1825

TOTAL 11489.3 1175.49Weighted Average tenor of the debt with the amounts outstanding as the weights(rounded off) 1175

Page 27: Equity Valuations

Calculations of Firm Value using EV/Sales approach:Source: valueresearchonline.comPrices as on 10-10-2016

Company Price Enterprise Value (Cr) Market Cap (Cr) Price / Sales Sales EV/ SalesAdvance Metering Technology Ltd. 29.2 34.92 47.29 1.8 26.27 1.33Baroda Extrusion Ltd. 0.22 50.75 3.28 0.14 23.43 2.17BGR Energy Systems Ltd. 116.85 2591.61 844.65 0.27 3128.33 0.83Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 134.95 25413.42 33079.31 1.23 26893.75 0.94Crompton Greaves Ltd. 76.45 5473.15 4797.74 0.57 8417.09 0.65Cummins India Ltd. 900.8 24489.37 24888.4 5.35 4652.04 5.26Delta Magnets Ltd. 32 53.24 20.71 0.37 55.97 0.95Electrotherm (India) Ltd. 181 3206.44 209.44 0.12 1745.33 1.84Fluidomat Ltd. 183.7 82.98 90.51 3.36 26.94 3.08GEE Ltd. 40.15 133.55 94.86 0.48 197.63 0.68Goldstone Infratech Ltd. 22 119.69 79.38 0.87 91.24 1.31JSL Industries Ltd. 130 15.69 14.51 0.33 43.97 0.36Kirloskar Industries Ltd. 854 889.29 830.91 153.82 5.40 164.63Permanent Magnets Ltd. 19.8 32.83 17.02 0.26 65.46 0.50Ricoh India Ltd. 300.05 1824.37 1193.24 0.56 2130.79 0.86S. E. Power Ltd. 6.5 73.94 27.98 2.62 10.68 6.92Swaraj Engines Ltd. 1323.3 1455.43 1640.1 3.02 543.08 2.68Windsor Machines Ltd. 34.65 251.14 225.64 0.84 268.62 0.93WS Industries (India) Ltd. 9.95 329.49 22.68 6 3.78 87.17

Median EV/ Sales 1.31TTM Sales (Sept 2015- Jun 2016)(in Rs crore) 8589.94Enterprise Value (in Rs crore) 11268.24Cash and Current InvestmentsMar 2016 Consolidated (in Rs crore) 945.48Firm Value (in Rs. Crores) 12213.72