Environmental Stories to Watch:

2010

Jonathan Lash

World Resources InstituteJanuary 7, 2010

Global Vision for a Sustainable Earth

Practical Solutions for People

Tracking the Illegal Cut Rep. John F. Lacey

Lacey Act Enforcement

Chesapeake legislation?

Matt Petros

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Average dollars per pound of annual nitrogen load reduction

Sources: Agricultural BMPs: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates Inc. Preliminary, 2009. Chesapeake Bay: Next Generation of Tools and Actions to Restore the Bay: Preliminary Economic Analysis of Options . Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; WWTP upgrades: WRI analysis using plant upgrade costs; New practices: Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Fisheries Service, Oyster Advisory Commission. December 20, 2008 conference proceedings: Oyster restoration economic and ecologic cost offsets. Available online at: http://www.dnr.state.md.us/fisheries/oysters/mtgs/122007/meeting122007.html; New practices (cont’d): Suwanee River Algal Turf Scrubbing System Concept Design Report; Additional agricultural BMPs from Wieland, Robert, et al. 2009. Costs and Cost Efficiencies for Some Nutrient Reduction Practices in Maryland. Maryland Department of Natural Resources Coastal Program.

Stormwater retrofits

Enhanced NMP

WWTP upgrades

-High-

Cover crops

Land retirement

Cons.tillage

Grassed buffers

Forestbuffers

Restored or constructed

wetlands

21.90

47.40

6.603.30 3.20 3.10 1.50 1.20

Stormwater*WWTPAgricultureNew practices

7.004.70

Native oyster

aquaculture

Algal turf scrubbing

3.20

Average Cost of Selected Nitrogen Reduction MeasuresDollars per pound of annual nitrogen reduction

ForestharvestBMPs

WWTP upgrades

-Low-

15.80

200 - 600

Stormwater mgmt for new development

92.40

2 Copenhagen Meetings

by Kuznetsov_Sergey

2 years ago in Bali“Developed countries want developing

countries to have a commitment. I don’t think it’s possible”-African Delegate

“Developing Countries so far have successfully resisted …pressures…and

threats which we have faced to undertake commitments.”

- G77 Chair

Unexpected Commitments:• Brazil – 36-39% below BAU, 15-18% below 2005 by

2020

• Mexico – 50% reduction by 2050 using cap and trade

• Indonesia – 26% below BAU by 2020

• South Africa – Emissions peak and start down by 2020

• China – reduce intensity of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 – 45% below 2005 level

• India – reduce carbon intensity 24% by 2020 and by 2030 reduce carbon emissions by 37% from 2005 levels

Mads Nissen/EPA

Failed Negotiations

Copenhagen OutcomeTARGET:

COMMITMENTS:

VERIFICATION:

REDD, ADAPTATION, TECHNOLOGY:

FUNDING:

LEGAL ACCORD:

<2°, NO-50%

All Major Economies Not Enough for <2°

All Major Economies Report & Respond

Good Progress, But no Decision

No Deadline

$10 Billion $100 Billion Commission

The Old G8

Telegraph.co.uk

The New C5

http://www.chinadaily.com.cnPhoto: Bloomberg

Photo: Rajeev Bhatt

World Economic ForumCenter for American Progress

ABC: Karen Barlow

China’s Carbon Intensity Commitment

• 12th 5 year plan• Green power buy• Clunker phase out

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

Original forest cover

Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

Current forest cover

Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

Current forest cover

Formerly forest, now croplands

Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

Current forest cover

Formerly forest, now croplands

Formerly forest, now pasture

Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

Formerly forest, now croplands

Formerly forest, now pasture

Intact Forest Landscapes

Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

Working Forest Landscapes

Formerly forest, now croplands

Formerly forest, now pasture

Intact Forest Landscapes

Tropical deforestation 2000-2005

Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

Working Forest Landscapes

Forest landscape restoration potential

(million hectares, excluding the boreal)

Higher probability Lower probability

Broad-scale Mosaic Irrigated croplands Rainfed croplands

Temperate 49 190 158 592

Humid Tropics 205 230 111 259

Dry Tropics 19 643 110 456

Total 272 1063 379 1306

The Trio

LCV Score: 90%

LCV Score: 87%

LCV Score: 10%

*Lifetime Score from League of Conservation Voters’ National Environmental Scorecard 2008

“Gang of 16” Democrats

Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI)

Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV)

Blanche Lincoln & Mark Pryor (AR)

Jim Webb & Mark Warner (VA)

Evan Bayh (IN)

Claire McCaskill (MO)

Sherrod Brown (OH)

Benjamin Nelson (NE)

Jeff Bingaman (NM)

Kent Conrad & Byron Dorgan (ND)Tim Johnson (SD)

“Gang of 16” Democrats

Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow (MI)

Robert Byrd & John D. Rockefeller IV (WV)

Blanche Lincoln & Mark Pryor (AR)

Jim Webb & Mark Warner (VA)

Evan Bayh (IN)

Claire McCaskill (MO)

Sherrod Brown (OH)

Benjamin Nelson (NE)

Jeff Bingaman (NM)

Kent Conrad & Byron Dorgan (ND)Tim Johnson (SD)

C

C CCC C

CC C

CCC

CC

CC

C

CC

C

CC

Coal data from Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) http://cait.wri.org/

& states where coal is 60% or more of electricity fuel mix

States with Unemployment levels higher than the National mean

(10.2%)

Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment—October 2009

10.9%

12.5%

11.2%

11%

11.2%

15.1%

13%

11%

10.5%

11.3%12.9%

12.1%10.5%

Actions Done or Underway

Planned or Likely in 2010

Mobile Sources § 202 Endangerment Finding (Expected 3/2010)

Joint EPA-DOT Vehicle Emissions & Efficiency Standards (Expected 3/2010)

Stationary Sources GHG Reporting Rule (Completed)

New Source Performance Standards for Cement Kilns

Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) pre-construction permitting (BACT) (Expected 3/2010)

New Source Performance Standards for Electric Generating Units;Possibly Other Categories

Title V operating permit requirements for major sources

NSPS at State Level for Existing Sources—cap-and-trade or traditional performance standards?

EPA Actions Underway and Likely

State Actions Underway and Likely• Northeast States - Low Carbon Fuel Standard

• California - stricter vehicle emissions standards for model year 2017 and beyond.    

• Three regional cap-and-trade programs collaborate.  • States likely to assert authority under the Clean Air Act.  

Bretton Woods Mount Washington Resort

Old Arrangements Are Changing