environment canada and the toronto 2015 pan american & parapan american games

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Arnold Ashton Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Environment Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Ann Arbor, May 13-15, 2014

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Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games. Arnold Ashton Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Environment Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Ann Arbor, May 13-15, 2014. PanAm : July 10-26, 2015. Parapan : Aug 7-15, 2015. Scope of Games:. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Arnold AshtonOntario Storm Prediction CentreEnvironment Canada

Great Lakes Operational Meteorology WorkshopAnn Arbor, May 13-15, 2014

Page 2: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 2 – April 22, 2023

Scope of Games:2014 Sochi Olympics 2015 PanAm/Parapan Games

No. Of Athletes and Coaches

2900 Athletes 8000 – PanAm

2000 – Parapan

Volunteers 25,000 23,000

No. of Sports 16 – Olympics (10 outdoors)

4 – Paralympics (3 outdoors)

40 – PanAm (18 Outdoors)

10 – Parapan

Range of Spectator Seating

Up to 12,000(40,000 – Opening/Closing Ceremonies)

1,500 to 20,000(potentially 70,000 – Opening/Closing Ceremonies)

Duration 16 Days – Olympics

9 Days – Paralympics

(6 Weeks total with Prep time and Wrap-Up)

14 Days – Pan AM

7 Days – Parapan

(6 Weeks total with Prep time and Wrap-Up)

No. Of Participating Countries

88 42

PanAm: July 10-26, 2015Parapan: Aug 7-15, 2015

Page 3: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 3 – April 22, 2023

Previous Games: Guadalajara, 2011

Page 4: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 4 – April 22, 2023

Environment Canada’s Role:

Two-pronged goal:- Safety and security during the Games

- Showcase EC’s advancement in science and technology

Enhanced service:- Two PanAm desks + One Briefer desk

- Issue VENUE-specific warnings and Tailored venue forecasts

Page 5: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 5 – April 22, 2023

Main Goal(s): Training

To create a FRAMEWORK:

- CONSISTENCY in forecasts & warnings

- ACCURACY in forecasts & warnings

- To improve warning LEAD TIMES (and reduce False Alarms)

Page 6: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 6 – April 22, 2023

Severe Weather Warnings are important, especially in large crowd scenarios such

as the 2015 Games

OttawaJul 17, 2011

• SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN• ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA• AT 12:02 PM EDT TUESDAY 29 MAY 2012.• ---------------------------------------------------------------------

• SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:• =NEW= CALEDON• =NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION =NEW=

SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE

• STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY• LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY• MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY• ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY.

• A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT• 70 KM/H THROUGH THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING

2• TO 4 CM HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H.

• SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THE AREA.• THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY• RAINFALL. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO• PRODUCE TORNADOES.

• EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS TAKING COVER• IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

• ==DISCUSSION==• A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON

WHICH WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

• REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

• END/OSPC

SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER

Heavy Rain Strong Winds Air Quality

Lightning Hail Heat/UV

CamroseAug 1, 2009

Page 7: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 7 – April 22, 2023

Weather Warnings are issued on Sub-Region Scale.

Severe Weather Warnings, Smog and Humidex Advisories are Issued as Required

Forecasts are for broad areas

The Severe Weather can be sub sub regional! Or Points!

NEED VENUE WARNINGS!

Severe ThunderstormWarning

Page 8: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 8 – April 22, 2023

Observationally-challenged

Page 9: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 9

• Compact Weather Stations – station on a stick– Temperature – Humidity– Pressure– Wind Speed and Direction– Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop

• High Resolution digital weather camera

• Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)

Page 10: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 10

• Compact Weather Stations – station on a stick– Temperature – Humidity– Pressure– Wind Speed and Direction– Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop

• High Resolution digital weather camera

• Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)

Page 11: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 11

• ATMOS Weather Stations – fancier– Temperature – Humidity– Pressure– Wind Speed and Direction (10 m)– Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop

• Research grade equipment (WMO guidelines)

Page 12: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 12

• Radiosondes – 4 X per day

Page 13: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 13

• Wave Rider Buoy Near sailing

• Watchkeeper Buoy Events

Page 14: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 14

• 4 X-band phased array radars

• 2 Lidars (Doppler pointing upwards)

Page 15: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 15 – April 22, 2023

Wind

GPS

Logger Pressure

T/RH (ventilated)

CompassThree units

EC AMMOS Mobile Mesonet Stations

Page 16: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 16 – April 22, 2023

Lightning Mapping Array

Page 17: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 17 – April 22, 2023

Lightning Mapping Array-Google Earth example showing two strikes

Page 18: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 18 – April 22, 2023Courtesy: Dr. David Sills

Page 19: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 19 – April 22, 2023

Page 20: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 20 – April 22, 2023

GUIDANCE from EXPERIMENTAL SUB-KM NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

250-m grid spacing computational domain

• Heat episodes

• Lake breezes

• Initiation, evolution, and intensification of intense convective activity

Test the ability of new NWP to provide improved guidance for the following events over the GTA:

Page 21: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 21 – April 22, 2023

Ontario Hourly AQHI Forecasts

Pilot Project Launched during the Pan Am Games for:

•Toronto Downtown

•Toronto Island

•Toronto East

•Toronto West

•Toronto North

•York University

•Hamilton Downtown

•Hamilton Mountain

Page 22: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 22 – April 22, 2023

Heat and Health

Page 23: Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American &  Parapan  American Games

Page 23

Questions?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pan_American_Games#Venues

http://www.toronto2015.org/

Contact: Arnold Ashton

[email protected]