energy yield ii - univie.ac.at · 22.06.2018: energy yield ii reminder: energy-yield 𝑌 = 𝑡 =...

22.06.2018: Energy Yield II

Energy Yield II

Marcus Rennhofer [email protected]

Unit 12


Content

• Data quality comparison of tools

measurement techniques

measurement errors

calibration chain

• Costs Scaling effects

Origin of cost reduction

Pay-back time of costs or energy

Reduction of CO2


0. Energy Yield - Reminder


Reminder: Energy-Yield

[ kWh/kWp a ] = [ h/a ] „full load hours“ 𝑌𝐹 = 𝑡𝑣𝑜 =𝐸𝑎

𝑃𝐺0

Ea = annual energy yield (EAC fed into the grid)

PG0 = PV nominal generator power

Performance Ratio

PR = 𝑌𝐹

𝑌𝑅

YR = annual radiation yield


Reminder: Composition of the irradiance Influence on results of models


1. Data quality


Energy Forecast: problem or solved? Perovo – Ukraine – Activ-Solar

Avancis

Modeling uncertainty in forecast

Facility behavior Module behavior

Target: energy yield 1% deviation

prediction time 1h


Tools under comparison

Modeling of

Test facility


Tools under comparison 2

2010

2018 Beste Vorhersage aus über 24.300 Simulationsvarianten (270 Modellketten

an 30 Standorten) von PV-Sol-Expert:

[-5%, +13%]


Environmental parameters - measurement

Ta … Ambient temperature

Tm … Module temperature

E … Irradiance

El … Spectrally resolved E

RH … Relative humidity

p … Air pressure

vw … Wind speed

ISC … Short circuit current

Thermo couple

PT100 2L/4L

Pyranometer

Star pyranometer

Diode pyranometer

PV-Module (stabilized)

Pyrheliometer

Spectrometer

Filtered pyranometer

Filtered solar cell

Semi conductor

Pressure sensor

(e.g.piezzo)

Heated wire

Ultra sonic anemometer

Bowl-anemometer

Shunt restistance


Measurement and prediction: accuracy

Irradiance 3%-5%

annual calibration ~ 2%

Temperature technically +/- 0.1 K, real +/- 1-2 K

Sun simulation class A: spectral 25%, Temp.: 2%, time: 2%

ageing sensors age at a rate of (a-Si): 0.5%-1.5% / a

power induced degradation (PID) / seasonal effects

Environmental impact spectral influence 0.1%-10% (mean 1%)

wind cooling (convection) (1%-30%)

Module power accredited Lab: 3%

industry 3%-10%

modeling annual yield prediction: 5%-15%

weather data: 1%-5%


Calibration chain

Primary

standard

15 Absolute Cavity Radiometers (World Radiation Center Davos)

(0.3%)

Secundary

standard

Pyrheliometer ( Davos, autumn,

3 weeks) Reference lamp (Planckian emitter) (1%)

Secundary

reference 1

Secundary

reference 1

Secundary

reference...

Pyranometer, Reference cell Labs, Industry, facility) (2%-5%)

Primary reference Pyranometer, Reference cell Labs (1.5%-2.5%)


Measurement

Diiffraction grating Spektrometer

2D-Ultrasonic anemometer Diode pyranometer


2. Costs


Example: System efficiency

Can this work???

© V. Quaschnig


Example: System efficiency


Example: Cost reduction


2012

Costs decrease with increasing cumulative production: learning curve:

10 * Produktion ½ Kosten

K … costs K0 … initial costs L … learning factor p … production P0 … initial prod.

𝐾 𝑝 = 𝐾0 ∙ 𝐿𝑙𝑛2

𝑝𝑝0

Learning curve of PV


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Number of doublings (installed capacity)

Co

st

ind

ex

($

/kW

)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Nuclear Reactors France 1977-2000

PVs Japan

1976-1995

0.1%

0.1%

50% interval

90% interval

mean learning rate

(115 case studies):

-20% per doubling

© Nakicenovic (2006)

Learning curve of PV


Nuclear power: complex, final risk of W.C.S.


Fossiles mainly fuelling Europe: e.g. Lignite Coal in GER

© Astrid Schneider, Solar architect



Electricity costs decrease

Production costs decrease


Efficiency increases at the same production costs

&


Life time increases at same production costs

&


4

4: Cr Si: New Generation

5: TF: New Gen. & Nano-Physics, QT 5



Costs of electricity

𝐶 =𝐼 ∙ 𝑎

𝑌𝐹+ 𝐶𝑣𝑎𝑟

C … costs per kWh I … investment a … annuity YF … full load hours [h] = [kWh/kWp] Cvar … running costs kWh [€/kWh] (~ 0.7%-1% I)

Costs of electricity [€ / kWhelektr.]

𝑎 𝑧, 𝑁 =1 + 𝑧 𝑁 ∙ 𝑧

1 + 𝑧 𝑁 − 1

z … interest rate (2%-6%) N … run time 20a-30a)

annuity


Pay back time

Cost pay back time

Energy pay back time

𝑇𝑘[𝑎] = 𝐼[€]

𝑌𝐹,𝑓𝑖𝑛. €/𝑎

𝑇𝐸[𝑎] = 𝐸𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛[𝑘𝑊ℎ]

𝑌𝐹 𝑘𝑊ℎ/𝑎

YF,fin … financial yield reduced by running costs

Eproduction … total energy for production

© solaranlagen.org


Pay back time


CO2 reduction

• Conventional mix: 0.65 kg CO2 / kWh

• Bio mass: per t Bio mass and year: 1,5 t CO2 bound 1,1 t O2 produced

• Photovoltaics per kWp installed capacity and year

1 MWh energy produced (Middel Europe) 0.65 t CO2 avoided

4-10 € CO2-certificates saved

© Ch. Krumphuber LK, ÖO 2009

© Photovoltaik-web.de


Cost reductiion vs. Electricity costs from the grid


Current facility costs in Austria (planning and installation)

5 kWp

10 kWp


Current facility costs


Example Austria:

Residential facility:

Investment 1800 EUR / kWp

Yield: 950 kWh / kWp a

Self consumption 40% (value ~0.2 €)

Fed to grid: 60 % (value ~0.08 €)

Pay off time: 14 a

Communal facility:

investment 1500 EUR / kWp

yield: 950 kWh / kWp a

Life time: 25 a

Running costs: 0.75% / a

ageing: 20% nach 25 a

Costs of electricity: 8 €ct / kWh

Nuclear power, linear calculated:

Invest: 8000 EUR / kWp


Run time: 30 a

Running costs: 0.5% / a

Deposit and retreat: 1 G€

Costs of electricity : 4.8 €ct

(real costs approx. 11 €ct)

Residential facility and battery:

battery 1200 EUR/ kWh *0,5 kWh/kWp

investment PV: 1500 EUR / kWp

Inves system: 2100 EUR / kWp


Self consumation 70% (value ~0.2 €)

Fed to grid: 30 % (value ~0.08 €)

16.6 ct / kWh yield 156 EUR /a

Pay off time: 13,4 a


Principles for the optimization of self-consumption

Self

consumption

E-Mobility

Power 2 heat

Load Management

Modelling of generator

profile

Peak shifting

Power 2 gas

Storage


Load

• Shift loads in time of high irradiance

• Time independent processes

• Management control system

Yield

• Shift PV-yield to high demand

• Orientation / Set up angle /

• Tracking system

Storage

• Thermal storage

• Electrical storage

• E-Mobility

Principles for the optimization of self-construction


VISIT AIT-Laboratory PVS 29.6.2018

Arrival by: Subway U6 (floridsdorf) + S-Bahn (Siemensstrasse) Subway U1 (Kagraner Platz) + 31A (Heinrich von Buol Gasse)


Thank you for your attention!

energy yield ii - univie.ac.at · 22.06.2018: energy yield ii reminder: energy-yield 𝑌 = 𝑡 =...

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