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Saving Energy Together Power Saver TM Program Energy Efficiency: Real, Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative Presented by Fred Yebra, P.E. December 4, 2007

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Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective

Alternative

Presented byFred Yebra PE

December 4 2007

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin Energy

bull Municipally-ownedbull 700000 populationbull Area gt 400 sq milesbull Generation 3170 MWs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin City Council

Resolution September 14 1999ldquoCost-effective conservation programs shall be the first priority in meeting new load growth requirements of Austin Energy rdquo

Clean Energy Resolution August 28 2003hellip Austin Energy Strategic Plan to ensure Austin remains a national and international leader in the development and use of clean energy

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin Climate Protection Plan Will make Austin the national leader among

cities in the fight against global warming

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Efficiency amp Renewables GoalEnergy Efficiency is first priority

ndash 15 energy savings by 2020ndash 700 MWs of peak demand savings by 2020

Renewable Energy Goalndash 30 Renewable Energy by 2020ndash 100 MWs of Solar by 2020

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Promoting Energy Efficiencybull Cash rebates pay 20 ndash 30 of cost bull Up to 70 incentives for Small Businessbull Direct install measuresbull Free home and business energy auditsbull Low-income Free Weatherizationbull Public education amp outreach efforts

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Top 100 MW is used 43 hrs per year

DSM OpportunityAE System Load Duration Curve - 2006

MW

s G

ener

ated

Hours (8760)

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin Energy

bull Municipally-ownedbull 700000 populationbull Area gt 400 sq milesbull Generation 3170 MWs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin City Council

Resolution September 14 1999ldquoCost-effective conservation programs shall be the first priority in meeting new load growth requirements of Austin Energy rdquo

Clean Energy Resolution August 28 2003hellip Austin Energy Strategic Plan to ensure Austin remains a national and international leader in the development and use of clean energy

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin Climate Protection Plan Will make Austin the national leader among

cities in the fight against global warming

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Efficiency amp Renewables GoalEnergy Efficiency is first priority

ndash 15 energy savings by 2020ndash 700 MWs of peak demand savings by 2020

Renewable Energy Goalndash 30 Renewable Energy by 2020ndash 100 MWs of Solar by 2020

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Promoting Energy Efficiencybull Cash rebates pay 20 ndash 30 of cost bull Up to 70 incentives for Small Businessbull Direct install measuresbull Free home and business energy auditsbull Low-income Free Weatherizationbull Public education amp outreach efforts

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Top 100 MW is used 43 hrs per year

DSM OpportunityAE System Load Duration Curve - 2006

MW

s G

ener

ated

Hours (8760)

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin City Council

Resolution September 14 1999ldquoCost-effective conservation programs shall be the first priority in meeting new load growth requirements of Austin Energy rdquo

Clean Energy Resolution August 28 2003hellip Austin Energy Strategic Plan to ensure Austin remains a national and international leader in the development and use of clean energy

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin Climate Protection Plan Will make Austin the national leader among

cities in the fight against global warming

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Efficiency amp Renewables GoalEnergy Efficiency is first priority

ndash 15 energy savings by 2020ndash 700 MWs of peak demand savings by 2020

Renewable Energy Goalndash 30 Renewable Energy by 2020ndash 100 MWs of Solar by 2020

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Promoting Energy Efficiencybull Cash rebates pay 20 ndash 30 of cost bull Up to 70 incentives for Small Businessbull Direct install measuresbull Free home and business energy auditsbull Low-income Free Weatherizationbull Public education amp outreach efforts

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Top 100 MW is used 43 hrs per year

DSM OpportunityAE System Load Duration Curve - 2006

MW

s G

ener

ated

Hours (8760)

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Austin Climate Protection Plan Will make Austin the national leader among

cities in the fight against global warming

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Efficiency amp Renewables GoalEnergy Efficiency is first priority

ndash 15 energy savings by 2020ndash 700 MWs of peak demand savings by 2020

Renewable Energy Goalndash 30 Renewable Energy by 2020ndash 100 MWs of Solar by 2020

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Promoting Energy Efficiencybull Cash rebates pay 20 ndash 30 of cost bull Up to 70 incentives for Small Businessbull Direct install measuresbull Free home and business energy auditsbull Low-income Free Weatherizationbull Public education amp outreach efforts

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Top 100 MW is used 43 hrs per year

DSM OpportunityAE System Load Duration Curve - 2006

MW

s G

ener

ated

Hours (8760)

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Efficiency amp Renewables GoalEnergy Efficiency is first priority

ndash 15 energy savings by 2020ndash 700 MWs of peak demand savings by 2020

Renewable Energy Goalndash 30 Renewable Energy by 2020ndash 100 MWs of Solar by 2020

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Promoting Energy Efficiencybull Cash rebates pay 20 ndash 30 of cost bull Up to 70 incentives for Small Businessbull Direct install measuresbull Free home and business energy auditsbull Low-income Free Weatherizationbull Public education amp outreach efforts

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Top 100 MW is used 43 hrs per year

DSM OpportunityAE System Load Duration Curve - 2006

MW

s G

ener

ated

Hours (8760)

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Promoting Energy Efficiencybull Cash rebates pay 20 ndash 30 of cost bull Up to 70 incentives for Small Businessbull Direct install measuresbull Free home and business energy auditsbull Low-income Free Weatherizationbull Public education amp outreach efforts

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Top 100 MW is used 43 hrs per year

DSM OpportunityAE System Load Duration Curve - 2006

MW

s G

ener

ated

Hours (8760)

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Top 100 MW is used 43 hrs per year

DSM OpportunityAE System Load Duration Curve - 2006

MW

s G

ener

ated

Hours (8760)

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak ClippingStrategic

Conservation Load Shifting

Energy Use Modification

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping Power Saver Programs

AC Cycling

WH Cycling

Demand Response

Volunteers

Peak Clipping Strategy

Represent 36 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Total Home EfficiencySmall Business EfficiencyGreen Building Program

Appliance EfficiencyMulti-family RebatesCommercial RebatesRefrigerator RecyclingFree Weatherization

Municipal ConservationAir Duct Sealing

Strategic Conservation

Represent 58 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingTime-of-Use Rate

Thermal Energy

Storage Systems

Load Shifting Strategy

Represent 6 of new DSM program mix

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Load ShiftingABIA Thermal Energy Storage Profile ndash August 2000

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

12 AM2 AM

4 AM6 AM

8 AM10 AM

12 PM2 PM

4 PM6 PM

8 PM

10 PM

1

4

7 10

13

16

1922

2528

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Day of Month

Time of day

Central Plant Demand (kW)

Load ShiftingABIA Profile ndash July 1999

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Day June 2 2005

Demand Response June 15 2005

June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Peak Clipping ImpactWednesday June 15 2005

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Strategic Conservation Impact

Traffic Signal Conversion to LED

Goal 5500 traffic signals

Existing incandescent lamps 135 wattsNew LED lamps 15 watts

Energy savings per lamp 120 watts

= 90 energy reduction

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations

bull ARI American Refrigeration Institutebull ANSI American National Standards Institutebull IESNA Illuminating Engineering Society of North Americabull NEMA National Electrical Manufacturerrsquos Associationbull ASTM American Society of Testing and Measurements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

How do we know DSM works

bull Equipment changes ndash ldquonotrdquo behavior modification

bull Inspection of installation work

bull Consumption verification

bull Independent evaluations

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Independent Evaluationsbull Historical evaluations

ndash SRC (Synergic Resource Corporation 1988)ndash B amp C Inc (Barakat amp Chamberlin Inc 1994)ndash B amp C Inc (Measurement amp Verification 1996)ndash ESOURCE Inc (2001)ndash ICF Consulting Inc (2004)

bull HPwES Participant Billing Analysis by NREL 2007 ldquoSignificant Impact reducing cooling electricity median reduction 32 for 6000 residentsrdquo

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

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Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

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t-hou

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220

230

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290

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Mill

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Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Cost-Effectiveness Modelbull ldquoStandard Practice for Cost-Benefit Analysis of

Conservation and Load Management Programsrdquo first published 1983

bull Used to compare DSM program costs to supply-side options

bull DSM is a lower cost option than supply-side optionsbull Residential DSM Cost $439 per peak kW savedbull Commercial DSM Cost $272 per peak kW saved

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast

bull Hourly electric load shapes are created for DSMbull Hourly KW savings are determined using

computer modelsbull Participation budgets are established annually bull DSM impacts are included in load forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Savings Forecast

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs

$0020

$0021

$0022

$0023

$0024

$0025

$0026

$0027

$0028

$0029

$0030

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fuel Cost without DSM

Fuel Cost with DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential off-system capacity sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000 6154 $KW 195000 $ 62 $ 12090000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through base rates 15000000 15000000
AEs net income impact (8100000) (20000000) (100000) (12000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact (8100000) (8000000) (100000) - 0
Customer savings-(net) $ (25000000) $ (31000000) $ (17000000) $ (35000000)
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (33564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Analysis 2007 2008

Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000)

Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 Program Cost (23000000) (23000000) Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000

AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000)

CURRENT FORECAST

Cash Flow Projection of DSM

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Cash flow chart

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ (9291878) $ (16549168) $ (25051423) $ (42850947) $ (52187964) $ (62982480) $ (75074630) $ (87432427) $ (99307547) $ (112688253) $ (127291028)
Estimated Annual Impact
Base Revenue Reduction $ (16134252)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (23790144)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 23790144
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2889000
Net program costs $ (7166814)
AEs net cash impact $ (20412066)
Customer savings $ (39924396)
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008 keyed in to round
Base Revenue Reduction (12000000) (16000000) (12000000) (16000000)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13000000) (15000000) (5000000) (7000000)
Customer Savings (Bill Reduction) (25000000) (31000000) (17000000) (23000000)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13000000 15000000 5000000 7000000 KW $KW NET 5 profit
Potential Off-system Capacity Sales 9000000 9000000 6207 $KW 145000 $ 62 $ 8990000 Net of fuel and GFT $ 449500
TCOS Expense Reduction 900000 1000000 900000 1000000
GFT Reduction 2000000 3000000 2000000 3000000
Program Cost (23000000) (23000000)
Recovery through Base Rates 15000000 15000000
AEs Net Income Impact (8100000) (20000000) (17100000) (35000000)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 - 0
AEs Net Cash Impact (8100000) (8000000) (17100000) - 0
Outline for Oct 10 Leadership Team Update
1 Components of BenefitCost Ratios
2 Cash Flow of DSM
CURRENT FORECAST PROPOSED PROJECTION
DSM Analysis 2007 2008 2007 2008
Base Revenue Reduction (11812895) (16167619) (11812895) (16167619)
Fuel Revenue Reduction (13238528) (14683328) (5217969) (5396810)
Fuel Cost Reduction 13238528 14683328 5217969 5396810
Potential off-system sales margins 8707500 8707500
Fuel Revenue Increase-Capacity 12000000 12000000
Fuel Cost Increase-Capacity (12000000) (12000000)
TCOS expense reduction 925987 977987 925987 977987
GFT reduction 2279680 2807436 2279680 2807436
Program cost (22819634) (22819634)
Recovery through base rates 14799075 14977916
AEs net income impact (7920288) (20223914) 100271 (12382196)
Deferred Cost of Capacity 12000000 12000000
AEs net cash impact including deferral (7920288) (8223914) 100271 (382196)
Customer savings-(net) $ (25051423) $ (30850947) $ (17030864) $ (21564429)
Recommend recovery thru fuel factor
Offset customer fuel savings due to DSM
Would not offset revenue loss (before amp after)
In 2007 we still have excess capacity
Cost recovery
3yrs - recommended purch power
power is only needed during peak-dont utilize a plant
need declines as renewables increases
cash flow
Dynamic pricing-TOU rates motivating cust to conserve energy
would replace some of the energy efficiency rebates
option to self-generate
TCOS expense reduction due to DSM savings Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Preliminary Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ERCOT Postage Stamp Rate 1476 1528 1661 1778 1925 2055 2185 2315 2445 2575 2705 2835 2965 3095 3225 3355
Estimated DSM-kW savings applied to average 4CP 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Reduction to TCOS expense $ 821987 $ 873987 $ 925987 $ 977987 $ 1029987 $ 1081987 $ 1133987 $ 1185987 $ 1237987 $ 1289987 $ 1341987

Chart1

Fuel Cost Reduction
Capacity Expense Reduction
Total Decrease In Expenses
REDUCTION IN EXPENSES DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
5166240
5166240
8956848
8956848
13238528
13238528
14683328
26360828
11677500
16859440
31439440
14580000
20212576
37762576
17550000
24919120
45304120
20385000
30094336
53246836
23152500
34616096
60468596
25852500
40546848
69166848
28620000
47845120
79232620
31387500

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013 2013
2014 2014 2014
2015 2015 2015

Chart4

Fuel Cost without DSM
Fuel Cost with DSM
REDUCTION IN FUEL COST DUE TO DSM PROGRAMS
00233611231
00238400717
00226232559
00233069306
00220985648
00237472342
00217888198
00236848698
00215229268
00237472426
00216083296
00242335075
00224259386
00254383594
00226073357
00259502528
00240455083
00277315347
00255904506
00296726494

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015

Sheet1

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
kWh reduction 84784000 155505000 242622000 331500000 417534000 508229000 598986000 684617000 774196000 865119000 953353000
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Demand reduction (kW) 41000 85000 129000 173000 216000 260000 302000 343000 383000 424000 465000
Reduced reserve requirement (kW) 5125 10625 16125 21625 27000 32500 37750 42875 47875 53000 58125 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Increased off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 11677500 14580000 17550000 20385000 23152500 25852500 28620000 31387500
Fuel Factor expense decrease ($) 5166240 8956848 13238528 26360828 31439440 37762576 45304120 53246836 60468596 69166848 79232620
Fuel Factor decrease (centskWh) 00005 00007 00016 00019 00022 00026 00030 00033 00037 00041
Fuel Factor decrease 2 3 7 9 10 12 13 15 15 16
GFT reduction 845561 1505974 2279680 2807436 3384105 4093406 4920791 5772351 6579987 7524631 8580484
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -7641970 -10035268 -11125954 -12331837 -13384470 -14623147 -15939461 -17126601 -18543331 -19988403 -21232317
Fuel cost savings assume all saved energy at average gas generation cost
Increased off-system sales margins assumes reduced demand plus associated reserve requirements could be sold for $15kWmonth (after 2007 this is an avoided capacity expense)
Fuel Factor expense increase is increased fuel expense plus purchased capacity cost
GFT reduction is base revenue and fuel cost reductions times 91
Base revenue wDSM 552961968 562415810 569170954 576627290 585065115 594497922 604045383 613657938 623249716 632762255 644233714
Base revenue wo DSM 557087606 570008130 580983849 592794909 605393639 619267826 633200893 646996029 660941168 674903660 690679622
kWh sales wDSM 10776303000 10954134000 11076488000 11213088000 11369667000 11546488000 11724454000 11897588000 12077216000 12256861000 12476492000
kWh sales wo DSM 10861087000 11109639000 11319110000 11544588000 11787201000 12054717000 12323440000 12582205000 12851412000 13121980000 13429845000 1000
kW sales wDSM 2435000 2442000 2443000 2471000 2477000 2486000 2486000 2490000 2515000 2535000 2539000
kW sales wo DSM 2476000 2527000 2572000 2644000 2693000 2746000 2788000 2833000 2898000 2959000 3004000
Fuel Forecast
Budget 2006 (3905) Tot-2006 Tot-2007 Tot-2008 Tot-2009 Tot-2010 Tot-2011 Tot-2012 Tot-2013 Tot-2014 Tot-2015 Total
MWH
STP 3303339 3488217 3514415 3360759 3465191 3507755 3405921 3614690 3482746 3515635 34658668
FPP 4564135 4517773 4465943 4451812 4418334 4545733 4554494 4586879 4445603 4245674 44796380
Decker 2839387 511212 504648 615748 583574 563845 570235 550098 594337 757598 8090682
Holly 235228 28425 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 263653
Sand Hill CC 1533962 1538343 1565132 1615597 1553452 1600111 1516183 1666799 1687122 14276700
SH GT 465155 427320 523864 450359 458722 498276 432337 492003 574949 4322986
Decker GT 157126 216800 280985 238803 246172 264900 238141 266139 294200 2203267
Existing DG 17340 7248 7296 7065 7216 7268 7168 7137 7147 16838 91723
Future DG 110 110 101 2216 2659 4743 5273 7365 7750 17746 48073
PurchasePower 131996 - 0 204000 208800 206400 206400 134400 201600 136000 139200 1568796
Landfill Methane 87493 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 92704 92450 92450 92450 920052
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 134151 178705 384764 454206 673445 744600 978509 1057336 4605716
Wind 636291 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 671181 669050 669050 669050 6662004
Solar 684 20026 32685 41438 50311 59183 68298 76929 85801 87839 523193
Shortfall Energy 3308 2419 3355 6021 3311 4269 7050 3075 3868 4281 40957
11584082 11699976 11841366 12004048 12188020 12373249 12553456 12740532 12928204 13159918 123072851
(10512) (1) (1) 0 0 (0) 1 1 (0) 0 (10505)
Dollars
STP 14024307 16411783 18054617 17815007 18997196 19874461 19872833 21713134 21541492 22417754 190722584
FPP 47959978 48327184 52942730 56530034 57287196 60262126 61527986 62666810 62927556 61809806 572241406
Decker 161242451 30007075 26150797 28534975 26297430 25902979 27510734 27253106 30904024 41053837 424857407
Holly 15649395 1939153 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 17588548
Sand Hill CC 71819840 62147912 53829988 54696364 53773560 56880544 56723452 64324432 66378796 540574888
SH GT 28915407 23018682 25201605 20614580 21546020 24873781 22042049 25993318 31798432 224003872
Decker GT 12129491 14068039 16315347 13248144 14062711 15831205 14654486 17002591 19718490 137030504
Existing DG 1066126 482134 392821 350785 361063 372817 379318 391499 407877 1055934 5260373
Future DG 5688 5352 3321 115774 140956 247241 281454 413559 455875 1154808 2824028
PurchasePower 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200 123558864
Landfill Methane 3535734 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 3663855 3653844 3653844 3653844 36440353
Future Bioenergy - 0 - 0 6036769 8041681 17314398 20439270 30305016 33507000 44032792 47579944 207256869
Wind 17374835 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 18314921 18256537 18256537 18256537 181800436
Solar - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0
Shortfall Energy 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058 3071771
250457205 245839462 244324412 245526217 247531370 255326093 271114397 278523346 301422961 327166440 2667231902
1792964 10 (12) 6 (1) 10 (27) 4 3 (6) 1793341
Gas MWh 2839387 2902683 2715536 2985730 2888333 2822192 2933522 2736759 3019278 3313869 29157288
Gas cost ($) 161242451 158521208 127324584 123881915 114856517 115285269 125096264 120673092 138224364 158949555 1344055218
Avg gas gen Cost ($MWh) 5679 5461 4689 4149 3977 4085 4264 4409 4578 4796 4610
NO DSM FUEL FACTOR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost 232662512 236980848 213398064 215549344 211851680 220956944 237247920 240469984 264099856 293228672
Shortfall Purchases 248086 181420 251636 451599 248349 320172 528742 230590 290120 321058
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 29016660 31009042 33965314 36999357 34296508 42869780 40252503 43354700
Fuel Cell Gas Cost 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837 119837
Recoverable ERCOT Expenses 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273 16825273
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Total Fuel Factor Revenue 264854590 263813711 274152035 279178321 286266289 298640176 320070653 333497390 363892643 398499082
Total Renewables 20910569 21910381 28015544 29952062 39224779 42349651 52283792 55417381 65943173 69490325
TotThermal+PurchPwr+Renewables 249864319 245834121 244321076 245522607 247527546 255322004 271110126 278519139 301418805 327162135
Estimated Green Choice Sales 10911686 12204048 13474979 14728836 15968943 18931058 21231418 22435455 23638119 24840783
Fuel Factor Renewables 9998882 9706333 14540565 15223226 23255836 23418594 31052373 32981926 42305054 44649542
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 11110 11319 11545 11787 12055 12323 12582 12851 13122 13430
Average cost per kWh $ 0023840 $ 0023307 $ 0023747 $ 0023685 $ 0023747 $ 0024234 $ 0025438 $ 0025950 $ 0027732 $ 0029673
Fuel Factors
Secondary $ 0023475 $ 0022733 $ 0022206 $ 0021895 $ 0021627 $ 0021713 $ 0022535 $ 0022717 $ 0024162 $ 0025715
Primary $ 0022776 $ 0022056 $ 0021545 $ 0021243 $ 0020984 $ 0021067 $ 0021864 $ 0022041 $ 0023443 $ 0024949
Transmission $ 0022539 $ 0021828 $ 0021321 $ 0021022 $ 0020766 $ 0020848 $ 0021637 $ 0021812 $ 0023200 $ 0024690
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Dag generation 11574 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
Joe generation 11584 11700 11841 12004 12188 12373 12553 12741 12928 13160
difference (10) 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 0 (0) 0
sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
losses 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 55 55
With DSM
Thermal Unit Fuel Cost wDSM 223705664 223742320 198714736 198689904 191639104 196037824 207153584 205853888 223553008 245383552
Short-Term Power Purchases 5000000 - 0 17339160 16429042 16415314 16614357 11144008 17017280 11632503 11967200
Average cost per kWh $ 0023361 $ 0022623 $ 0022099 $ 0021789 $ 0021523 $ 0021608 $ 0022426 $ 0022607 $ 0024046 $ 0025590
Forecast Annual GWh Sales 10954 11076 11213 11370 11546 11724 11898 12077 12257 12476
255897742 250575183 247791207 247738881 248503713 253336056 266823817 273028794 294725795 319266462
CASH FLOW PURCHASE OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 12000000 15000000 18000000 21000000 24000000 27000000 30000000 33000000
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853 845560920627699
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -23481580 -27387801 -31463846 -35497075 -39427542 -43588195 -47663759 -51563965
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base Revenue Reduction $ (4125638) $ (7592320) $ (11812895) $ (16167619) $ (20328524) $ (24769904) $ (29155510) $ (33338091) $ (37691451) $ (42141405) $ (46445908)
Fuel Revenue Reduction $ (5166240) $ (8956848) $ (13238528) $ (26683328) $ (31859440) $ (38212576) $ (45919120) $ (54094336) $ (61616096) $ (70546848) $ (80845120)
Fuel Cost Reduction $ 5166240 $ 8956848 $ 13238528 $ 26683328 $ 31859440 $ 38212576 $ 45919120 $ 54094336 $ 61616096 $ 70546848 $ 80845120
Potential off-system sales margins $ 2767500 $ 5737500 $ 8707500 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ - 0
Net program costs $ (5438271) $ (7520034) $ (7246854) $ (7313961) $ (7059277) $ (6693942) $ (6341565) $ (6089451) $ (5896744) $ (5522354) $ (5118057)
AEs net cash impact $ (6796409) $ (9374854) $ (10352249) $ (23481580) $ (27387801) $ (31463846) $ (35497075) $ (39427542) $ (43588195) $ (47663759) $ (51563965)
Customer savings $ 9291878 $ 16549168 $ 25051423 $ 42850947 $ 52187964 $ 62982480 $ 75074630 $ 87432427 $ 99307547 $ 112688253 $ 127291028
CASH FLOW BUILD OPTION
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Base revenue reduction 4125638 7592320 11812895 16167619 20328524 24769904 29155510 33338091 37691451 42141405 46445908
Fuel cost reduction 5166240 8956848 13238528 14683328 16859440 20212576 24919120 30094336 34616096 40546848 47845120
Potential off-system sales margins 2767500 5737500 8707500
Capacity cost reduction 7736295 11604442 11604442 15472589 15472589 19340737 19340737 23208884
GFT reduction 845561 660413 773705 527757 576669 709301 827386 851560 807636 944644 1055853
Program cost 20689324 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634 22819634
Recovery through base rates 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
Cash flow -6796409 -9374854 -10352249 -15745285 -15783359 -19859404 -20024486 -23954952 -24247459 -28323022 -28355080
-21195738994
Capacity cost Build option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600
Annual capacity cost $386814737 $7736295 $11604442 $11604442 $15472589 $15472589 $19340737 $19340737 $23208884
Capacity cost Buy option
Reduced capacity requirement (kW) 46125 95625 145125 194625 243000 292500 339750 385875 430875 477000 523125
Capacity added 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
Annual capacity cost $600000000 $12000000 $15000000 $18000000 $21000000 $24000000 $27000000 $30000000 $33000000
1994 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net MWh to system 7659242 10855000 11388814 11573570 11699976 11841366 12004047 12188019 12373248 12553455 12740532 12928203 13159916
Revenue multiplier 100 142 149 151 153 155 157 159 162 164 166 169 172
Revenue allocated to DSM 9688028 13730281 14405492 14639186 14799075 14977916 15183688 15416391 15650684 15878624 16115254 16352636 16645725
CentskWh in rates for DSM 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0134 0133 0133 0133 0133 0133
Annual sales (MWh) 10262000 10776303 10954134 11076488 11213088 11369667 11546488 11724454 11897588 12077216 12256861 12476492

Sheet3

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Questions

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

FY 2006 Achievements

Energy SavingsMW of

Programs Saved Goal Goal

Residential 126 115 110

Commercial 154 121 127

Demand Response 146 156 94

Solar 055 060 93

Grand Total 432 398 108

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

MW SavedPrograms FY2005 FY2006

Residential 119 126

Commercial 153 154

Demand Response 116 146

Solar 06 055

Grand Total 394 432

Energy Savings ComparisonFY2005 to FY2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

DSM Summary

bull DSM programs are saving peak kW amp kWh

bull Cost-effectiveness analyses include full program costs

bull DSM goals and budgets should vary to support AE resource plan requirements

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Free Home WeatherizationEnergy Improvementsbull Insulate Atticsbull Duct Sealingbull Install CFLsbull Solar Screensbull Caulking and Weather-strippingbull Free Smoke amp Carbon Monoxide Detector bull Minor Energy Related Repairs

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Power Saver Program

bull FREE Energy Saving Productsbull Lower energy costsbull 65000 installed in homes apartmentsbull 4000 installed in commercial buildings

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Saving Energy TogetherPower SaverTM Program

Energy Conservation in COA FacilitiesSenate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

Base Year2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Gig

awat

t-hou

rs

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Mill

ion

Dol

lars

Million kWh Cost

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Chart1

Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost
343667472
28619895
33757683
2504536
3260767692
24602549
31773020962
26778741
324036807
2745756918
313494864
2936354518

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294
Base Year 2001 Base Year 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006

Sheet1

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
Million kWh Cost
Base Year 2001 344 286
2002 338 250
2003 326 246
2004 318 268
2005 324 275
2006 313 294

Sheet1

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Gigawatt-hours
Senate Bill 5 Reported Energy Use

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities

Sheet2

ampA
Page ampP
Million kWh
Cost
Gigawatt-hours
Million Dollars
Senate Bill 5 Energy Use vs Energy Cost

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities

Sheet3

  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities
  • Energy Efficiency Real Reliable and Cost-Effective Alternative
  • Austin Energy
  • Austin City Council
  • Austin Climate Protection Plan
  • Efficiency amp Renewables Goal
  • Promoting Energy Efficiency
  • Slide Number 7
  • Slide Number 8
  • Slide Number 9
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Slide Number 13
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Strategic Conservation Impact
  • NationalIndependent Efficiency Rating Organizations
  • How do we know DSM works
  • Independent Evaluations
  • DSM Cost-Effectiveness Model
  • Modeling DSM Programs in Load Forecast
  • Slide Number 22
  • DSM Reduction in Fuel Costs
  • Slide Number 24
  • Slide Number 26
  • Slide Number 27
  • DSM Summary
  • Free Home Weatherization
  • Power Saver Program
  • Energy Conservation in COA Facilities