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Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings: How can we harvest them? Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Director 8th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

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Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings: How can we harvest them?. Diana Ü rge-Vorsatz Director 8th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. Outline. Buildings in CEE: EU’s goldmine Energy efficiency potentials Co-benefits - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:

How can we harvest them?

Diana Ürge-VorsatzDirector

8th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting

on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Page 2: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

OutlineBuildings in CEE: EU’s goldmine

Energy efficiency potentialsCo-benefits

GHG mitigation policy opportunities in buildings: the other goldmine

Why it is difficult to harvest the gold: challenges in CEE

Selected solutions: recommendations

Page 3: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

Buildings in CEE: EU’s goldmine

Page 4: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

EU buildings – a goldmine for CO2 reductions, energy security, job creation and

addressing low income population problems

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kWh

/m2a

Renewable Energy

Fossile Energy

-84%

Source: Claude Turmes, MEP, presented at the Amsterdam Forum, 2006

Page 5: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Estimated potential for GHG mitigation at a sectoral level in 2030 in different cost

categories , transition economies

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Buidlings Industry Agriculture Energy supply Forestry Waste Transport

Gton CO2eq.

<20 <0 0-20 20-100

Cost categories* (US$/tCO2eq)

* For the buildings, forestry, waste and transport sectors, the potential is split into three cost categories: at net negative costs, at 0-20US$/tCO2, and 20-100 US$/tCO2. For the industrial, forestry, and energy suppy sectors, the potential is split into two categories: at costsbelow 20 US$/tCO2 and at 20-100 US$/tCO2.

Source: CEU research for IPCC AR4, Ch6

Page 6: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

Investment needs to unlock building efficiency potentials in Hungary, versus saved energy costs

Cost categories of CO2

mitigation costs, EUR/tCO2

Cumulative CO2

mitigation potential

Investments over 2008-2025, billion

EUR 

Saved energy costs 2008 – 2025,

billion EUR

Baseline share

Million tCO2/yr. Total

By cost category

Total By cost category

< 0 29.4% 5.1 9.6 9.6 17.1 17.1

0 – 20 33.4% 5.8 13.6 3.9 19.0 1.8

20-50 35.3% 6.1 15.0 1.4 19.8 0.8

20 – 100 41.6% 7.2 18.1 3.1 21.9 2.1

>100 50.5% 8.7 29.0 10.9 25.7 3.8

Source: Novikova 2008, Novikova and Urge-Vorsatz, KVVM report, 2007

Page 7: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Co-benefits of improved energy efficiency in CEE

buildings (selection)

Co-benefits are often not quantified, monetized, or identified

Overall value of co-benefits may be higher than value of energy savings

A wide range of co-benefits, including: Improved social welfare

Energy-efficient household equipment and low-energy building design helps households cope with increasing energy tariffs

Fuel poverty: In the UK, about 20% of all households live in fuel poverty. The number of annual excess winter deaths is estimated at around 40 thousand annually in the UK alone.

Page 8: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Fuel poverty in Hungary Share of energy spending in total household

expenditures

0 5 10 15 20 25

2003

2020

Household energy expenditures, % of total household expenditures

Income decile 10 (richest)Income decile 9Income decile 8Income decile 7Income decile 6Income decile 5Income decile 4Income decile 3Income decile 2Income decile 1 (poorest)Total

Calculated based on Eurostat (2008), LABORSTA (2007), Commission of the European Communities, (2008)

Page 9: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

The key co-benefits for new EU MSs (continued)

Employment creation “producing” energy through energy efficiency or renewables is more

employment intensive than through traditional ways a 20% reduction in EU energy consumption by 2020 can potentially create 1

mln new jobs in Europe new business opportunities

for developed countries a market opportunity of € 5–10 billion in energy service markets in Europe

Increased comfort E.g. Solanova project, Hu: noise reduction, sing. Reduction in indoor

pollution –> reduced need for cleaning and improved health; property values increased

Reduced energy costs will make businesses more competitive Others:

Improved energy security, reduced burden of constrained generation capacities, Increased value for real estate, Improved energy services (lighting, thermal comfort, etc) can improve productivity, Improved outdoor air quality

Page 10: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

Policies to foster GHG mitigation in buildings

Page 11: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrument

Country examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Appliance standards

EU, US, JP, AUS, Br, Cn

High

Jp: 31 M tCO2 in 2010;

Cn: 250 Mt CO2 in 10 yrs

US: 1990-1997: 108 Mt CO2eq, in 2000: 65MtCO2 = 2.5% of el.use,

Can: 8 MtCO2 in total by 2010,

Br: 0.38 MtCO2/year

AUS: 7.9 MtCO2 by 2010

High

AUS: -52 $/tCO2 in

2020,US: -65 $/tCO2 in 2020;

EU: -194 $/tCO2 in

2020Mar: 0.008 $/kWh

Building codes

SG, Phil, Alg, Egy, US, UK, Cn, EU

High

HkG: 1% of total el.saved;US: 79.6 M tCO2 in 2000;

EU: 35-45 MtCO2, up to 60% savings for new

bdgsUK: 2.88 MtCO2 by 2010, 7% less en use in

houses 14% with grants& labellingCn: 15-20% of energy saved in urban regions

Medium

NL: from -189 $/tCO2 to

-5 $/tCO2 for end-users,

46-109 $/tCO2 for

Society

Procurement regulations

US, EU, Cn, Mex, Kor, Jp

High

Mex: 4 cities saved 3.3 ktCO2eq. in 1year

Ch: 3.6Mt CO2 expected

EU: 20-44MtCO2 potential

US:9-31Mt CO2 in 2010

High/ Medium

Mex: $1Million in purchases saves $726,000/year; EU: <21$/tCO2

Energy efficiency obligations and quotas

UK, Be, Fr, I, Dk, Ir

High UK: 2.6 M tCO2/yr High

Flanders: -216$/tCO2

for households, -60 $/tCO2 for other sector

in 2003.UK: -139 $ /tCO2

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 1: Control and regulatory mechanisms- normative instruments

Page 12: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Mandatory labelling and certification programs

US, Jp, CAN, Cn, AUS, Cr, EU, Mex, SA

High

AUS: 5 Mt CO2 savings 1992-

2000, 81Mt CO2 2000-2015,

SA: 480kt/yrDk: 3.568Mt CO2

High AUS:-30$/t CO2 abated

Mandatory audit programs

US; Fr,

NZL,

Egy,

AUS, Cz

High,variable

US: Weatherisation program: 22% saved in weatherized households after audits (30%according to IEA)

Medium/High

US Weatherisationprogram: BC-ratio:2.4

Utility demand-side management programs

US, Sw, Dk, Nl, De, Aut

High

US : 36.7 MtCO2in 2000,Jamaica: 13 GWh/ year,4.9% less el use = 10.8 ktCO2Dk: 0.8 MtCO2Tha: 5.2 % of annual el sales 1996-2006

High

EU: - 255$/tCO2Dk: -209.3 $/tCO2US: Average costsapp. -35 $/tCO2Tha: 0.013 $/kWh

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 2: Regulatory- informative instruments

Page 13: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Energy

performance

contracting/ ESCO support

De, Aut,Fr, Swe,Fi, US,Jp, Hu

High

Fr, S, US, Fi: 20-40% ofbuildings energy saved;EU:40-55MtCO2 by 2010

US: 3.2 MtCO2/yr

Cn: 34 MtCO2

Medium/ High

EU: mostly at no cost,

rest at <22$/tCO2;

US: Public sector:

B/C ratio 1.6,

Priv. sector: 2.1

Cooperative/

technology

procurement

De, It, Sk,

UK, Swe,

Aut, Ir,

US,Jp

High/Medium

US: 96 ktCO2

German telecom company:

up to 60% energy savings

for specific units

Medium/High

US: - 118 $/ tCO2

Swe: 0.11$/kWh

(BELOK)

Energy efficiency certificate schemes

It, Fr High

I: 1.3 MtCO2 in 2006,

3.64 Mt CO2 eq by 2009

expectedHigh

Fr: 0.011 $/tCO2

estimated

Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms

Cn, Tha, CEE (JI &AIJ)

Low

CEE: 220 K tCO2 in 2000

Estonia: 3.8-4.6 kt CO2 (3

projects)

Latvia: 830-1430 tCO2

Low

CEE: 63 $/tCO2

Estonia: 41-57$/tCO2

Latvia: -10$/tCO2

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 3: Economic and market-based instruments

Page 14: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Taxation (on CO2 or household fuels)

Nor, De UK, NL, Dk, Sw

Low/Medium

De: household consumptionreduced by 0.9 % 2003: 1.5 MtCO2 in totalNor: 0.1-0.5% 1987-1991NL:0.5-0.7 MtCO2 in 2000Swe: 5% 1991-2005, 3MtCO2

Low  

Tax exemptions/ reductions

US, Fr, Nl, Kor

HighUS: 88 MtCO2 in 2006FR: 1Mt CO2 in 2002

High

US: B/C ratio commercialbuildings: 5.4New homes: 1.6

Public benefit charges

BE, Dk, Fr, Nl, US states

Medium/ Low

US: 0.1-0.8% of total el. sales saved /yr, 1.3 ktCO2 savings in 12 statesNL: 7.4TWh in 1996 = 2.5 MtCO2Br: 1954 GWh

High in reported cases

US: From -53$/tCO2

to - 17$/tCO2

Capital subsidies, grants, subsidised loans

Jp, Svn, NL, De, Sw, US, Cn, UK, Ro

High/Medium

Svn: up to 24% energy savings for buildings,

BR: 169ktCO2

UK: 6.48 MtCO2 /year, 100.8 MtCO2 in total

Ro: 126 ktCO2/yr

Low sometimes High

Dk: – 20$/ tCO2

UK:29$/tCO2 for soc,

NL: 41-105$/tCO2 for

society

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 4: Fiscal instruments and incentives

Page 15: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Awareness, education, information

Dk, US,

UK, Fr,

CAN, Br,

Jp, Swe

Low/ Medium

UK: 10.4ktCO2 annually

Arg: 25% in 04/05, 355 ktep

Fr: 40tCO2/ year

Br: 2.23kt/yr, 6.5-12.2

MtCO2/ year with voluntary

labeling 1986-2005

Swe: 3ktCO2/ year

Medium/ High

Br: -66$/tCO2;

UK: 8$/tCO2

(for all

programs of Energy

Trust)/

Swe: 0.018$/kWh

Detailed billing & disclosure programs

Ontario,

It, Swe,

Fin, Jp,

Nor, Aus,

Cal, Can

Medium

Max.20% energy savings

in households concerned,

usually app. 5-10% savings

UK: 3%

Nor: 8-10 %

Medium

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 5: Support, information and voluntary action (cont.)

Country name abbreviations: Alg - Algeria, Arg- Argentina, AUS - Australia, Aut - Austria, Be - Belgium, Br - Brazil, Cal - California, Can - Canada, CEE - Central and Eastern Europe, Cn - China, Cr - Costa Rica, Cz - Czech Republic, De - Germany, Ecu - Ecuador, Egy - Egypt, EU - European Union, Fin - Finland, GB-Great Britain, Hkg -Hong Kong, Hu - Hungary, Ind - India, Irl - Ireland, It - Italy, JP - Japan, Kor - Korea (South), Mar- Morocco, Mex - Mexiko, NL - Netherlands, Nor - Norway, Nzl – New Zealand, Phil - Philippines, Pol - Poland, Ro- Romania, SA- South Africa, SG - Singapore, Sk - Slovakia, Svn - Slovenia, Sw - Switzerland, Swe - Sweden, Tha - Thailand, US - United States.

Page 16: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Why it is difficult to harvest the gold: CEE challenges to harvesting the potentials

While cost-effective, long payback times Substantial capital investment needs

But very limited liquidity of population and institutions

Perverse govt incentives (eg procurement, support schemes)

Millions of stakeholders to be mobilised Huge transaction costs Markets, businesses, experts and and public

awareness not ready others

Page 17: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Recommendations:selected policy options to be considered

What not: direct price subsidies; caution with investment subsidies

Exemplary role of the public sector: leadership programs E.g. German and Austrian govt commitments

PPP solutions to be preferred E.g. ESCO arrangements in Germany

Establishing the financial markets that are motivated in lending for efficiency (if no crisis…)

Mandatory low-E (~passive bldg) standards for social housing (perhaps all publicly financed bldgs?)

Preferential mortgage schemes for low-E housing&offices “feebate” schemes in mortgages

Green Investment Schemes – huge opportunity; Hungary front-runner

Page 18: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Thank you for your attention

Diana Ürge-VorsatzCenter for Climate

Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP)

CEU

3csep.ceu.hu

[email protected]

They keep promising this global warming, they keep promising – but trust me, they won’t keep this promise either!

With permission from HVG

Page 19: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

Acknowledgements: authors of Chapter 6

Coordinating Lead Authors: Mark Levine (USA), Diana Ürge-Vorsatz (Hungary)

Lead Authors: Kornelis Blok (The Netherlands), Luis Geng (Peru), Danny Harvey

(Canada), Siwei Lang (China), Geoffrey Levermore (UK), Anthony Mongameli Mehlwana (South Africa), Sevastian Mirasgedis (Greece), Aleksandra Novikova (Russia), Jacques Rilling (France), Hiroshi Yoshino (Japan)

Contributing Authors: Paolo Bertoldi (Italy), Brenda Boardman (UK), Marilyn Brown (USA),

Suzanne Joosen (The Netherlands), Phillipe Haves (USA), Jeff Harris (USA), Mithra Moezzi (USA)

Review Editors: Eberhard Jochem (Germany), Huaqing Xu (PR China)

Page 20: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

Supplementary slides

Page 21: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Sectoral CO2 emissions projected in the reference case, 2008 - 2025

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Million tonnes CO2

Space heating, buildings constructed using industrialized technology

Space heating, traditional multi-residential buildings

Space heating, old single-family houses (constructed before 1992)

Water heating (including electric)

Space heating, buildings constructed in 1993 - 2008 Space heating, buildings constructed from 2008

Cooking (non-electric)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Million tonnes CO2

Space heating, buildings constructed using industrialized technology

Space heating, traditional multi-residential buildings

Space heating, old single-family houses (constructed before 1992)

Water heating (including electric)

Space heating, buildings constructed in 1993 - 2008 Space heating, buildings constructed from 2008

Appliances (including electric cooking) and lighting

Page 22: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

If so attractive, why is it not happening?

The market barriers to energy-efficiency are perhaps the most numerous and strongest in the buildings sector

These include:imperfect informationLimitations of the traditional building design processEnergy subsidies, non-payment and energy theftMisplaced incentives (agent/principal barrier)Small project size, high transaction costsothers

Page 23: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Conclusion Climate change is unequivocal Stabilisation is possible, but requires major reductions in

emissions, as much 50 – 85% of 2000 emissions by 2050 Improved energy-efficiency could contribute the largest share in

our mitigation task in the short- and mid-term Capturing the economic potential in buildings alone can contribute

app. 38% of reduction needs in 2030 for a 3˚C-capped emission trajectory

While HPs can play an important role, many factors determine the net climate impact of heat-pumps vs. the alternatives, the LCCP potential of the refrigerants also needs to be considered.

In addition to climate change benefits, improved energy-efficiency can advance several development goals as well as strategic economic targets

However, each new building (HVAC system) constructed in an energy-wasting manner will lock us into high climate-footprint future buildings for decades (centuries?) to come – action now is important

Page 24: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Typical lifetime of capital stock Structures with influence > 100 years

less than 30 years 30-60 years 60-100 years

Domestic appliancesWater heating and HVAC systemsLightingVehicles

AgricultureMiningConstructionFoodPaperBulk chemicalsPrimary aluminiumOther manufacturing

Glass manufacturingCement manufacturingSteel manufacturingMetals-based durables

RoadsUrban infrastructureSome buildings

Early investment are important

Table 11.17: Observed and estimated lifetimes of major GHG-related capital stock

Page 25: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Mitigation in the buildings sector: global significance

Capturing only the cost-effective potential in buildings can supply app. 38% of total reduction needed in 2030 to keep us on a trajectory capping warming at 3˚C

New buildings can achieve the largest savings As much as 80% of the operational costs of standard new buildings can

be saved through integrated design principles Often at no or little extra cost Hi-efficiency renovation is more costly, but possible

The majority of technologies and know-how are widely available A large share of these options have “negative costs” – i.e.

represent profitable investment opportunities

Page 26: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Supply curves of conserved CO2 for buildings in 2020 for different world regions

Source: Figure 6/4. Notes: a) Except for the UK, Thailand and Greece, for which the supply curves are for the residential sector only. b) Except for EU-15 and Greece, for which the target year is 2010 and Hungary, for which the target year is 2030. Each step on the curve represents a type of measure, such as improved lighting or added insulation. The length of a step on the ‘X’ axis shows the abatement potential represented by the measure, while the cost of themeasure is indicated by the value of the step on the ‘Y’ axis.

Page 27: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Although EE is often profitable, investments are hindered by barriers

Although there are large cost-effective investments to be made, market barriers often hinder that they are captured by market forces Including misplaced incentives, distorted energy price/tax

regimes, fragmented industry and building design process, limited access to financing, lack of information and awareness (of the benefits), regulatory failures, etc.

These barriers are perhaps the most numerous and strongest in the buildings sector

Therefore, strong policies are needed to overcome them to kick-start and catalise markets in capturing the potentially cost-effective investments

Page 28: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Background: case studies reviewed

Over 80 ex-ante policy evaluation studies were reviewed from over 52 countries

Page 29: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

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Conclusion Improved energy-efficiency could contribute the largest share in our

mitigation task in the short- and mid-term Capturing the economic potential in buildings alone can contribute

app. 38% of reduction needs in 2030 for a 3˚C-capped emission trajectory

In addition to climate change benefits, improved energy-efficiency can advance several development goals as well as strategic economic targets E.g. improving social welfare, employment, energy security

However, due to the numerous barriers public policies are needed to unlock the potentials and to kick-start or catalise markets

Several instruments have already been achieving large emission reductions at large net societal benefits, often at double or triple negative digit cost figures all over the world

However, each new building constructed in an energy-wasting manner will lock us into high climate-footprint future buildings – action now is important

Page 30: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Why is immediate action important?

Page 31: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

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Sectoral economic potential for global mitigation for different regions as a function

of carbon price, 2030

IPCC AR4 WGIII Figure SPM.6.

Page 32: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Supply curve of CO2 mitigation in the Hungarian residential sector, 2025

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

thousand tons CO 2

EUR/tCO 2

Lights

Standby

Water saving fixtures

Freezers

Window exchange

Thermostats

Condensing central building gas boilers

Wall insulation

TRVs

Passive energy design

Base

Roof insulation

Clothes washing Refrigerators

Water heating systems

Pellet boilers

Heat pumps

…Roof insulation…Weather stripping of windows…Base insulation...Individual metering of heat…Condensing gas dwelling boilers

Condensing central dwelling gas boilers

Solar thermal backed-up with pellet boilers

Window exchangeBase

Wall insulation

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

thousand tons CO 2

EUR/tCO 2

Lights

Standby

Water saving fixtures

Freezers

Window exchange

Thermostats

Condensing central building gas boilers

Wall insulation

TRVs

Passive energy design

Base

Roof insulation

Clothes washing Refrigerators

Water heating systems

Pellet boilers

Heat pumps

…Roof insulation…Weather stripping of windows…Base insulation...Individual metering of heat…Condensing gas dwelling boilers

Condensing central dwelling gas boilers

Solar thermal backed-up with pellet boilers

Window exchangeBase

Wall insulation

App. 29.4% of baseline CO 2 emissions

Source: Novikova 2008, Novikova and Urge-Vorsatz, KVVM report, 2007

Page 33: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

Policies to foster GHG mitigation in buildings

Page 34: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrument

Country examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Appliance standards

EU, US, JP, AUS, Br, Cn

High

Jp: 31 M tCO2 in 2010;

Cn: 250 Mt CO2 in 10 yrs

US: 1990-1997: 108 Mt CO2eq, in 2000: 65MtCO2 = 2.5% of el.use,

Can: 8 MtCO2 in total by 2010,

Br: 0.38 MtCO2/year

AUS: 7.9 MtCO2 by 2010

High

AUS: -52 $/tCO2 in

2020,US: -65 $/tCO2 in 2020;

EU: -194 $/tCO2 in

2020Mar: 0.008 $/kWh

Building codes

SG, Phil, Alg, Egy, US, UK, Cn, EU

High

HkG: 1% of total el.saved;US: 79.6 M tCO2 in 2000;

EU: 35-45 MtCO2, up to 60% savings for new

bdgsUK: 2.88 MtCO2 by 2010, 7% less en use in

houses 14% with grants& labellingCn: 15-20% of energy saved in urban regions

Medium

NL: from -189 $/tCO2 to

-5 $/tCO2 for end-users,

46-109 $/tCO2 for

Society

Procurement regulations

US, EU, Cn, Mex, Kor, Jp

High

Mex: 4 cities saved 3.3 ktCO2eq. in 1year

Ch: 3.6Mt CO2 expected

EU: 20-44MtCO2 potential

US:9-31Mt CO2 in 2010

High/ Medium

Mex: $1Million in purchases saves $726,000/year; EU: <21$/tCO2

Energy efficiency obligations and quotas

UK, Be, Fr, I, Dk, Ir

High UK: 2.6 M tCO2/yr High

Flanders: -216$/tCO2

for households, -60 $/tCO2 for other sector

in 2003.UK: -139 $ /tCO2

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 1: Control and regulatory mechanisms- normative instruments

Page 35: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Mandatory labelling and certification programs

US, Jp, CAN, Cn, AUS, Cr, EU, Mex, SA

High

AUS: 5 Mt CO2 savings 1992-

2000, 81Mt CO2 2000-2015,

SA: 480kt/yrDk: 3.568Mt CO2

High AUS:-30$/t CO2 abated

Mandatory audit programs

US; Fr,

NZL,

Egy,

AUS, Cz

High,variable

US: Weatherisation program: 22% saved in weatherized households after audits (30%according to IEA)

Medium/High

US Weatherisationprogram: BC-ratio:2.4

Utility demand-side management programs

US, Sw, Dk, Nl, De, Aut

High

US : 36.7 MtCO2in 2000,Jamaica: 13 GWh/ year,4.9% less el use = 10.8 ktCO2Dk: 0.8 MtCO2Tha: 5.2 % of annual el sales 1996-2006

High

EU: - 255$/tCO2Dk: -209.3 $/tCO2US: Average costsapp. -35 $/tCO2Tha: 0.013 $/kWh

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 2: Regulatory- informative instruments

Page 36: Energy Efficiency Potentials in CEE buildings:  How can we harvest them?

3CSEP

Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Energy

performance

contracting/ ESCO support

De, Aut,Fr, Swe,Fi, US,Jp, Hu

High

Fr, S, US, Fi: 20-40% ofbuildings energy saved;EU:40-55MtCO2 by 2010

US: 3.2 MtCO2/yr

Cn: 34 MtCO2

Medium/ High

EU: mostly at no cost,

rest at <22$/tCO2;

US: Public sector:

B/C ratio 1.6,

Priv. sector: 2.1

Cooperative/

technology

procurement

De, It, Sk,

UK, Swe,

Aut, Ir,

US,Jp

High/Medium

US: 96 ktCO2

German telecom company:

up to 60% energy savings

for specific units

Medium/High

US: - 118 $/ tCO2

Swe: 0.11$/kWh

(BELOK)

Energy efficiency certificate schemes

It, Fr High

I: 1.3 MtCO2 in 2006,

3.64 Mt CO2 eq by 2009

expectedHigh

Fr: 0.011 $/tCO2

estimated

Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms

Cn, Tha, CEE (JI &AIJ)

Low

CEE: 220 K tCO2 in 2000

Estonia: 3.8-4.6 kt CO2 (3

projects)

Latvia: 830-1430 tCO2

Low

CEE: 63 $/tCO2

Estonia: 41-57$/tCO2

Latvia: -10$/tCO2

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 3: Economic and market-based instruments

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Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Taxation (on CO2 or household fuels)

Nor, De UK, NL, Dk, Sw

Low/Medium

De: household consumptionreduced by 0.9 % 2003: 1.5 MtCO2 in totalNor: 0.1-0.5% 1987-1991NL:0.5-0.7 MtCO2 in 2000Swe: 5% 1991-2005, 3MtCO2

Low  

Tax exemptions/ reductions

US, Fr, Nl, Kor

HighUS: 88 MtCO2 in 2006FR: 1Mt CO2 in 2002

High

US: B/C ratio commercialbuildings: 5.4New homes: 1.6

Public benefit charges

BE, Dk, Fr, Nl, US states

Medium/ Low

US: 0.1-0.8% of total el. sales saved /yr, 1.3 ktCO2 savings in 12 statesNL: 7.4TWh in 1996 = 2.5 MtCO2Br: 1954 GWh

High in reported cases

US: From -53$/tCO2

to - 17$/tCO2

Capital subsidies, grants, subsidised loans

Jp, Svn, NL, De, Sw, US, Cn, UK, Ro

High/Medium

Svn: up to 24% energy savings for buildings,

BR: 169ktCO2

UK: 6.48 MtCO2 /year, 100.8 MtCO2 in total

Ro: 126 ktCO2/yr

Low sometimes High

Dk: – 20$/ tCO2

UK:29$/tCO2 for soc,

NL: 41-105$/tCO2 for

society

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 4: Fiscal instruments and incentives

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Policy

instrumentCountry examples

Effec-tiveness

Energy or emission reductions for selected best practices

Cost-effectiveness

Cost of GHG emission reduction for selected best practices

Awareness, education, information

Dk, US,

UK, Fr,

CAN, Br,

Jp, Swe

Low/ Medium

UK: 10.4ktCO2 annually

Arg: 25% in 04/05, 355 ktep

Fr: 40tCO2/ year

Br: 2.23kt/yr, 6.5-12.2

MtCO2/ year with voluntary

labeling 1986-2005

Swe: 3ktCO2/ year

Medium/ High

Br: -66$/tCO2;

UK: 8$/tCO2

(for all

programs of Energy

Trust)/

Swe: 0.018$/kWh

Detailed billing & disclosure programs

Ontario,

It, Swe,

Fin, Jp,

Nor, Aus,

Cal, Can

Medium

Max.20% energy savings

in households concerned,

usually app. 5-10% savings

UK: 3%

Nor: 8-10 %

Medium

The impact and effectiveness of various policy instruments Part 5: Support, information and voluntary action (cont.)

Country name abbreviations: Alg - Algeria, Arg- Argentina, AUS - Australia, Aut - Austria, Be - Belgium, Br - Brazil, Cal - California, Can - Canada, CEE - Central and Eastern Europe, Cn - China, Cr - Costa Rica, Cz - Czech Republic, De - Germany, Ecu - Ecuador, Egy - Egypt, EU - European Union, Fin - Finland, GB-Great Britain, Hkg -Hong Kong, Hu - Hungary, Ind - India, Irl - Ireland, It - Italy, JP - Japan, Kor - Korea (South), Mar- Morocco, Mex - Mexiko, NL - Netherlands, Nor - Norway, Nzl – New Zealand, Phil - Philippines, Pol - Poland, Ro- Romania, SA- South Africa, SG - Singapore, Sk - Slovakia, Svn - Slovenia, Sw - Switzerland, Swe - Sweden, Tha - Thailand, US - United States.

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Cumulative potential CO2 emission reductions in Hungarian residences, 2008 - 2025

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Million tonnes CO2

Space heating, old single-family houses (constructed before 1992)

Space heating, traditional multi-residential buildings

Space heating, buildings constructed using industialized technology

Space heating, buildings constructed after 2008

Electric appliances (inc. freezers, fridges, clothes

washers, LOPOMO of PC- and TV-related peripheries) and

lights

Water heating (including electric)

Source: Novikova 2008, Novikova and Urge-Vorsatz, KVVM report, 2007