M I T I n t e r n a t i o n a l C e n t e r f o r A i r T r a n s p o r t a t i o nM I T I n t e r n a t i o n a l C e n t e r f o r A i r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

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Implications of Very Light Jets Implications of Very Light Jets for the Air Transportation Systemfor the Air Transportation System

Philippe A. Bonnefoy bonnefoy@mit.edu

R. John Hansman rjhans@mit.edu

Global Airline Industry Program Industrial Advisory Board/Airline Industry Consortium Joint Meeting

MIT

November 4th 2005

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Motivation & Introduction

Number of Fixed Wing Turbine Business Aircraft 15879

9504

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Total Number of Fractional Shares

3

3834

6217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Data source: NBAA, Fact Book 2004.

Business aviation industry• Segment of the General Aviation industry:

37 B$ annually (0.4% of 2000 GDP)Employment: 511 000

• Growing Industry +67% in # of aircraft (turbine) over the last 10 years

• Emerged Models in the 1980s: Fractional Ownership Programs

Future entry of Very Light Jets• New opportunities:

Large scale on-demand air networks

• Need to understand the dynamics of entry of VLJsat the N.A.S. level and anticipate the potential impactsin order to allow a successful integration of these new models

* Data source: The National Economic Impact of Civil Aviation, DRI·WEFA Inc., 2002. (GA figures include Business Aviation and Air Taxi)

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Very Light Jets (VLJs):

A New Class of Aircraft

Beech 390 Premier I

Cessna CJ1

Cessna Sovereign

Cessna Excel

Cessna BravoCessna CJ3

Citation 10

LearJet 60

LearJet 40LearJet 35

LearJet 45

Gulfstream G150

Safire

H400

H800XP

Horizon

SJ30Cessna CJ2

Gulfstream G200

Eclipse

MustangAdam 700Avocet

Diamond

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000

Mill

ion

Max Take Off Weight (lbs)

Acqu

isiti

on C

ost (

$)U

nit

Pri

ce (

$ 20

03)

NBAA classification Light JetsLight Jets Medium JetsMedium Jets Heavy JetsHeavy Jets

Very Light JetsVery Light JetsNew class

Very Light JetsVery Light Jets

Light JetsLight Jets Medium JetsMedium Jets

Heavy JetsHeavy Jets

Data source: Jane's, All the World Aircraft, 2004-2005

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Very Light Jets in Development

Eclipse500Eclipse Aviation

Twin JetU.S.

2300-August 2005

Q2 2006

MustangCessna

Twin JetU.S.240

July 2005Q3 2006

Adam700Adam Aircraft

Twin jetU.S.75

July 20042006+

EMB-VLJEmbraerTwin Jet

Brazil

2008

A/C name:Company:A/C type:Country:Orders:as of:First Delivery*:*expected

ProJetAvocet Aircraft

Twin JetIsrael / U.S.not disclosed

D-JetDiamond Aircraft

Single JetAustria/Canada

Not disclosed

2006

Eviation EV-20A/C name:Company:A/C type:Country:Orders:as of:First Delivery*:*expected

Safire26Safire Aircraft

Twin JetU.S.

HondaJetHonda

Twin JetJapan

No commercialization

commitment

Epic LTEpic

Twin JetU.S.

Not disclosed

Excel Sport Jet

… and others entering the race: Spectrum 33

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Potential Size of this Segment of the Industry

Teal group

FAA

Honeywell Rolls Royce

Forecast International

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Num

ber o

f airc

raft

Expected entry of the first VLJs

Data Source:

-FAA Forecast 2005-2016: http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2005-2016/

-Rolls-Royce outlook: http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aerospace/overview/market/outlook/default.jsp

-Aviation International News, Forecasts predict growth for business aviation, http://www.ainonline.com/issues/11_04/11_04_forecastp10.html ,

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Potential Modes of Operations

Owner flown ( ≈ 900 aircraft )• Owned and operated by individuals or companies

Fractional Ownership Programs ( ≈ 20 aircraft )• e.g. Our Plane (Canada & U.S.)

Clubs ( ≈ 110 aircraft )• e.g. Aviace (Switzerland)

Large Scale On-Demand Air Networks ( ≈ 1700 aircraft )

• Charter: e.g. Pogo (U.S)

• Per Seat: e.g. DayJet (U.S.)

• Mix Charter/Per Seat: e.g. LinearAir (U.S.)

Freight ( ≈ ? aircraft )• Logistic Networks

(e.g. Supply Chain Back Up Networks, Package delivery, etc)

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With runway length requirements of 3000 ft VLJs will be able to have access to a larger set of airports

Data Source: FAA, Form 5010

Runways greater than 3,000 ft

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Analysis of Traffic by Existing Business Jets: Traffic Share by Aircraft Type

40% of the total BJ traffic is performed by the subset of 7

aircraft types (Light Jets)

Data Source: ETMS traffic data

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Horizontal Pattern AnalysisHorizontal Pattern Analysis

One day of traffic in the NAS by Light JetsOne day of traffic in the NAS by Light Jets

Density Plot: Courtesy of Aleksandra MozdzanowskaFlights performed by the subset of aircraft (light jets: Cessna CJ1,CJ2,CJ3, Cessna Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker 400)

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500Stage Length (in miles)

PDF

68thpercentile

93thpercentile

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Light Business Jet Traffic* in 2003

MD

RIW

A

TEB

HPN

DAL

IAD

MDW

PDK

CMH

HOU

LAS

APA

PBI

0

0

0

150 operations per day75 operations per day15 operations per day

0

0

0

150 operations per day75 operations per day15 operations per day

•Traffic at 3400 public airportsLight Jets include: Cessna CJ1, CJ2, CJ3, Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker400

Data source: ETMS data (traffic) and FAA Form 5010 (airports)

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Airport UtilizationAirport Utilization (by airport type)(by airport type)

Traffic Share by Airport Type

30 % of the total activity (departures and arrivals) is performed

at airports part of the 16 metropolitan regions

50 % of all flights* have at least one end airport

in one of 16 metropolitan regions

•Flights performed by the subset of aircraft (Light Jets: Cessna CJ1,CJ2,CJ3, Cessna Bravo, Excel, LearJet35, Hawker 400)

50 miles

Core Airport

Regional Airport System

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Volume of Operations in the U.S.Volume of Operations in the U.S.

Historical data and forecastHistorical data and forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2 003

2006

*20

09*

2012

*20

15*

2018

*

Mill

ions

Ope

ratio

ns /

Year

Very Light Jets

General Aviation

Commuter

Air Carrier

Military

Historical Forecast

Entry of VLJsEntry of VLJs(2006)*(2006)*

2016 Outlook2016 Outlook(10 years after (10 years after

the entry of VLJs)the entry of VLJs)

* This scenario assumes a delivery rate of 500 very light jets per year starting in 2006.

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Analysis of Traffic Distribution at the Analysis of Traffic Distribution at the Regional Airport System Level Regional Airport System Level

example of the example of the New YorkNew York Region*Region*

La GuardiaLa Guardia LGALGAEssexEssex CDWCDW

NewarkNewark EWREWR

KennedyKennedy JFKJFK

TeterboroTeterboro TEBTEB

WestchesterWestchester HPNHPN

LindenLinden LDJLDJFarmingdaleFarmingdale FRGFRG

MorristownMorristown MMUMMU

GreenwoodGreenwood 4N14N1

IslipIslip ISPISP

Old BridgeOld Bridge 3N63N6

Central JerseyCentral Jersey 47N47N

MonmouthMonmouth BLMBLM

SMQSMQ

DanburyDanbury DXRDXR

BridgeportBridgeport BDRBDR

SolsbergSolsberg N51N51

SussexSussex FWMFWM

PrincetonPrinceton 39N39N

CoreCore

SecondarySecondary

VLJ capable GAVLJ capable GA

Business Av. /Business Av. /High density GAHigh density GA

Airports: Airports: LegendLegend

non VLJ capable non VLJ capable GAGA

* The analysis was performed for several regional airport systems in the U.S. (New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles)

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Historical and Forecasted Volumes of Historical and Forecasted Volumes of Traffic at Airports within the Regional Traffic at Airports within the Regional Airport System Airport System example of the example of the New YorkNew York Region*Region*

Historical 2003Historical 2003

Forecast 2016Forecast 2016

LGA LGA T.A.C.T.A.C. JFK JFK T.A.C.T.A.C.EWR EWR T.A.C.T.A.C.

LGA LGA T.A.C.T.A.C. JFK JFK T.A.C.T.A.C.EWR EWR T.A.C.T.A.C.

TEB TEB T.A.C.T.A.C.

TEB TEB T.A.C.T.A.C.

* The analysis was performed for several regional airport systems in the U.S. (New York, Boston, Washington, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles)

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Conclusions & Future Directions of Research

ConclusionIn the short and medium term, VLJ traffic is unlikely to differ from existing LJ traffic. Concentration of traffic implies:• Outside high density metro areas: Not an issue, capacity exists• Inside high density metro areas

Some key airports will become even more congestedCapacity crisis at key airports will occur even without VLJs

• Traffic redistribution mechanisms will take placeCore airportsSecondary airports; emergence of new secondary airportsCore GA reliever airports; strengthening of existing and emergence of new reliever airports Surrounding GA airports; growth of business jet (and Very Light Jet) traffic

Strengthened role of small regional airports within key metropolitan areasNeed to promote the development of airport systems on a region wide basis

Future Directions of ResearchInvestigating the feasibility and the implications of the integration of air carrier and on-demand air networks

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Questions&

Comments