Embodied cultivated land use in China 1987–2007

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EESabcaARRAKCII1bfnl(itisacopeCch1ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelCOIND-1959; No. of Pages 12Ecological Indicators xxx (2014) xxxxxxContents lists available at ScienceDirectEcological Indicatorsj o ur na l ho me page: www.elsev ier .com/ locate /eco l indmbodied cultivated land use in China 19872007han Guoa, Geoffrey Qiping Shena,, Zhan-Ming Chenb,, Rong YucDepartment of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong KongDepartment of Energy Economics, School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, ChinaTechnology and Strategy Research Center, China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100196, China r t i c l e i n f orticle history:eceived 30 January 2014eceived in revised form 10 April 2014ccepted 19 May 2014eywords:ultivated land usenputoutput analysisnternational tradea b s t r a c tThe recent trend of rapid urbanization draws more and more concerns on the land use pattern in China.This study employs an ecological inputoutput model to reveal the impact of domestic consumptionand international trade on cultivated land distributions in China during 19872007. According to thehigh-sectoral-resolution dataset, Agriculture and Food Processing are identified as the two key sectorswhich contribute the largest volumes of embodied cultivated land to meet household food demand in2007. The indicators of production- and consumption-based cultivated land are highly correlated duringthe research period: both experience a phase of stability during 19871995, then a boom from 1995 to1997, and a steady decrease afterward. Although the total cultivated land use in China is fluctuating, theembodied intensity shows a declining trend from 7.12 ha/thousand Yuan in 1987 to 0.43 ha/thousandYuan in 2007, with an annual decrease rate of 13.09%. With respect to trade pattern, the Agriculturesector is Chinas largest net importer of cultivated land, in contrast to the Textile sector as the largest netexporter. When China is shown to be a net embodied cultivated land exporter throughout the concernedyears, the variation of embodied cultivated land balance is closely related to the countrys internationaltrade pattern. 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.. IntroductionAs a populous country with about one fifth of the populationut only 7% of the land area of the world, China is facing a severeood security situation (Chen, 2007). To cope with this, the Chi-ese government employs legislative measures to impose a redine restriction, i.e., 120 million hectares, for its cultivated landGrassini et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2012). However, driven by thencreasing food demand, expanding biofuel production as well ashe rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent years, Chinas under unprecedented pressures on how to properly allocate itscarce cultivated land resources to meet future demands for goodsnd services (Qiang et al., 2013). Therefore, the research on Chinasultivated land use becomes an urgent demand in the research fieldf land use. When the modern economic organization mode createsPlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ossibility to rematch resources supply and commodity demand byxpanding the production chain or network, the indirect cultivated Corresponding authors. Tel.: +852 27665817 (Q. Shen), +86 10 82500321 (Z.-M.hen).E-mail addresses: geoffrey.shen@polyu.edu.hk (G.Q. Shen),henzhanming@ruc.edu.cn, chenzhanming@pku.edu.cn (Z.-M. Chen).ttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019470-160X/ 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.land use associated with consumption and trade flows has been afocus to achieve the cultivated land protection goal in China.The interests for land use accounting in terms of consump-tion and trade can be dated back to the concept of EcologicalFootprint (EF) proposed by Rees and Wackernagel in the 1990s(Rees, 1992, 1996; Wackernagel and Rees, 1996), defined as thetotal area of productive land and water area required continu-ously to produce all the resources consumed and to assimilateall the wastes produced, by a defined population, wherever onearth that land is located (Rees and Wackernagel, 1996). A stan-dardized method, i.e., National Footprint Account (NFA), was laterdeveloped for EF accounting (Wackernagel et al., 1999, 1997) andthen has been widely used in different spatial scales, includingglobal (Wackernagel et al., 2013; Yu et al., 2013), national (Galliet al., 2012; Wiedmann, 2009) and urban scales (Chen, 2007).In 2003,Wackernagel and his colleagues established the GlobalFootprint Network (GFN), an international think tank working toadvance sustainability through use of the EF based on NFA, whichpublishes the database of EFs for nearly 150 nations (Wackernagelet al., 2013).ltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),Despite its great value in land resources accounting, the conceptof EF is criticized for failing to depict the mutual interrelationshipsof economic activities and to assign the indirect environmental bur-den from inter-industrial dependencies (Costello et al., 2011). Fordx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/1470160Xhttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolindmailto:geoffrey.shen@polyu.edu.hkmailto:chenzhanming@ruc.edu.cnmailto:chenzhanming@pku.edu.cndx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019 ING ModelE2 IndicaeboattatipioafiuGe2baeecaelseitmithm2elvhlbrlscaicvpuamt22eiARTICLECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 12 S. Guo et al. / Ecological xample, though the concept aims to address consumer responsi-ility by summing up all the direct and indirect ecological impactsriginated from a specific activity, it neglects the intrinsic link-ges between consumption and resource depletion. Thus EF failso reveal the causal relationship to trace back to the places wherehe ecological impacts really occur (Lenzen et al., 2007b).In contrast, inputoutput analysis (IOA) is a well-establishedpproach that allows resource flows and environmental impactso be assigned to categories of final consumption through inter-ndustrial connection (Chen and Chen, 2013). The methodologyrovides a quantitative solution to represent the sectoral embod-ed ecological flows along with their economic counterparts basedn the physical balance (Chen and Chen, 2011a). Resource usesnd environmental emissions based on IOA have been quanti-ed in different categories, such as energy consumption, waterse, land use and greenhouse gas emissions (Guan et al., 2008;uo and Chen, 2013; Guo et al., 2012a; Han et al., 2013; Jit al., 2013; Peters, 2008; Weinzettel et al., 2013; Wiedmann,009). Especially, land use assessment based on IOA can be datedack to 1998, when Bicknell et al. (1998) proposed the methodnd applied it to New Zealand. Three years later, Ferng (2001)nhanced the applicability of the method by making several nec-ssary corrections. Since then, a series of scholars have made greatontributions to the development of IOA in the field of land useccounting (Galli et al., 2012; Lenzen et al., 2003, 2007a; Woodt al., 2006). Currently, this method has been widely adopted forand use accounting at global, national, urban and organizationalcales (Hubacek et al., 2009; Lenzen and Murray, 2001; Wiedmannt al., 2006, 2007), showing its great significance for policymplications.As to Chinas land use, GFN publishes EF report for the coun-ry annually using the NFA method (WWF et al., 2012). Moreover,any Chinese researchers have involved in applying or modify-ng the EF methodology for China: Liu and Peng (2004) calculatedhe time series of EF in China between 1962 and 2001. Chen andis colleagues assessed the natural resource use of China usingodified EF method in a series of studies (Chen and Chen, 2006,007; Chen et al., 2006a, 2006b, 2007; Shao et al., 2013). How-ver, only a limited numbers of studies focus on Chinas specificand use based on IOA. Hubacek and Sun (2001) calculated Chinasirtual land requirements by an inputoutput modeling to assessow the changes in the economy and society affect land use andand cover. Zhou and Imura (2011) calculated EFs for China 2000ased on a multi-region inputoutput model to trace the origin ofegional consumption and to systematically account for the eco-ogical impacts embodied in interregional trade. In spite of thecarcity situation of cultivated land in China, no research is spe-ially targeted at cultivated land use based on embodied concepts,lthough there are already some studies concerning Chinas ecolog-cal footprints. However, the ecological footprint studies only takeultivated land as part of the research objectives, so that the culti-ated land use pattern are not fully explained. To fill in this gap, thisaper presents an embodiment analysis on Chinas cultivated landse with high sectoral resolution and time series inputoutput data,iming at demonstrating how cultivated land in China is utilized toeet the requirements of domestic consumption and internationalrade during 19872007.. Methodology and data.1. AlgorithmPlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019In an attempt to calculate and compare quantitatively thembodiment of cultivated land in different economic activities,.e., production, consumption, export and import, the ecological PRESStors xxx (2014) xxxxxxinputoutput model is used in this paper, whose origin dates backto Odums ecological and general systems theory (Odum, 1983,2000). The model integrates ecological endowments into economicnetwork to reveal the resources profile associated with all the eco-nomic flows in and out the concerned system (Chen et al., 2013b;Guo et al., 2012b).Up to now, the IOA methodology has been well developed, andsome crucial assumptions and data aggregation have both been dis-cussed in a series of studies (Su and Ang, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014;Su et al., 2013). The empirical results vary with different modelassumptions. Due to the data availability, it is assumed in currentresearch that:1) The approach used in this study is based on the emissionsavoided by import assumption, i.e., imported commodities havethe same embodied cultivated land intensities as domestic onesdue to the limitation of import intensities, though the importedcommodities show a substantial difference from domestic ones(Su and Ang, 2013).2) Constrained by the availability of economic and environmentaldata in export trade, the study uses the uniform export assump-tion and thus does not distinguish the processing and normalexports (Su et al., 2013).Embodied cultivated land intensity of a specified sector isdefined as the sum of direct and indirect cultivated land use inthe whole supply chain to produce per unit monetary value ofthe targeted good/service (Yang et al., 2013), which is differentfrom EF aggregating different kinds of land resources into one com-mon denominator (Qiang et al., 2013). The calculation of embodiedcultivated land flows relies on a database including the embod-ied intensities of every commodity within the economy. To obtainthe intensity database, the ecological inputoutput table integrat-ing direct cultivated land uses and economic flows is compiled asshown in Table 1, in which lj stands for the direct cultivated landuse by Sector j, zij the economic value of intermediate inputs fromSector i to Sector j, fj the economic value of output from Sector jused as final consumption, exj the economic value of export fromSector j and xj the economic value of total output from Sector j.Based on the ecological inputoutput table, the sectoral bio-physical balance for the embodied land flows can be formulatedas:jxj =ni=1jzij + lj, (1)where j is the embodied cultivated land intensity of good/servicefrom Sector j.Then for all the interactive sectors, the aggregate matrix form ofEq. (1) can be deduced as:EX = EZ + L, (2)where the direct cultivated land use matrix L = [lj]1n, embod-ied cultivated land intensity matrix E = [j]1n, intermediate inputmatrix Z = [zij]nn, and total outputs matrix X = [xij]nn, in whichi, j (1, 2, ..., n), xij = xj(i = j) and xij = 0(i /= j).Then the embodied cultivated land intensity matrix E is calcu-lated as:E = L (X Z)1. (3)This paper calculates and compares production-based culti-vated land use (direct cultivated land use related to productionltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),activities for a targeted sector/system) and consumption-basedcultivated land use (embodied, i.e. direct and indirect, cultivatedland related to consumption activities for a targeted sector/system)(Cadarso et al., 2012) flows of China, which are instrumental indx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 12S. Guo et al. / Ecological Indicators xxx (2014) xxxxxx 3Table 1Basic structure of ecological inputoutput table (revised from Chen et al. (2010)).dltEtgttohfEwccepTlsmafmfEEetermining the distributing burden of each agent for cultivatedand protection.The production-based cultivated land, notated as ELP, is equalo the direct cultivated land use (Chen and Zhang, 2010), given asLPj = Lj, (4)The consumption-based cultivated land, notated as ELC, ishe cultivated land embodied in the whole supply chain ofoods/services consumed by final consumption activities withinhe targeted system (Chen and Chen, 2011b). The final consump-ion activities are usually divided into five categories accordingn Chinas inputoutput statistics, namely, rural consumption,ousehold consumption, government consumption, fixed capitalormation and change of inventories.LCj = jFj, (5)here Fj is the final consumption from Sector j.International trade plays a significant role in redistributing theultivated land resources through the trading products. Embodiedultivated land in imports (ELI) and embodied cultivated land inxports (ELE) are two important indicators to reflect the tradingattern in terms of cultivated land resources (Chen et al., 2013a).he difference of ELE and ELI is defined as embodied cultivatedand trade balance, ELB. A positive ELB makes the country a netupplier of cultivated land resources in international trade (whicheans cultivated land deficit in footprint terminology) and a neg-tive value implies it is a net receiver of cultivated land welfarerom other countries (cultivated land overshoot in footprint ter-inology) (Chen and Chen, 2011c). The three indicators can bePlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ormulated as:LIj = jImj, (6)LEj = jExj, (7)ELBj = ELEj ELIj, (8)where Im denotes the imports from other regions.To reflect the industrial-wide profiles of ELP, ELC, ELI and ELEalong with the change of technological level, trading structures andpolicies, this paper makes horizontal comparison between sectorswithin the same time frame of 2007 to show the common butdifferentiated industrial responsibilities for cultivated land pro-tection. At the same time, vertical comparison during 19872007is presented to depict the changing trend to provide insight on theunderlying incentive factors.2.2. Data sourcesIn order to explore the time serial cultivated land data ade-quately, a detailed review on the development history of Chinasland statistical record system is helpful. Before 1999, land statisti-cal record system of China was not established so that cultivatedland data were integrated in and released by certain comprehensivestatistics reports, such as Annual Report of the National Bureau ofStatistics China, instead of by specific land use reports. Since 1999,land use data have been published regularly by the Ministry of LandResources through several specific reports including China Land& Resources Almanac (19992012), China Communiqu of Landand Resources (19992012) and China Land and Resource Statis-tical Yearbooks (20052013). The latest updated report releasedby the end of 2013 provides land use information for the year of2009 (Zhu, 2013). On the basis of the above data sources, Ministryof Agriculture synthesizes the cultivated land data between 1983and 2008 in the Agricultural Development Report (20012013) andltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),China Agriculture Yearbook (19802013). The cultivated land dataof China used in this study, i.e., data over the period of 19872007,are obtained from the two statistics report and yearbook releasedby Ministry of Agriculture.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 124 S. Guo et al. / Ecological Indicators xxx (2014) xxxxxx0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504139373533312927252321191715131197531Embodied cultivated land intensity(hectares/thousandYuan)Se land us2tibtfii1Wuiru333(po3stfag(otih3tt721rPdecrement rate has been declining from 1.11 to 0.04 ha/thousandFig. 1. Embodied cultivatedIOA was proposed by Leontief in the 1930s, which could besed to clarify the economic linkages among production and con-umption activities based on the cross sector balance (Zhang et al.,013). The national inputoutput tables published by National Sta-istical Bureau of China are used in this study. The first officialnputoutput table for China is that for 1987, since which theenchmark tables are compiled every five years. Besides, extendedables are also compiled based on the latest benchmark tables everyve years since 1990. Up to present, there are ten official nationalnputoutput tables for China, i.e., tables for 1987, 1990, 1992,995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2010 (Cao and Xie, 2007).ith the available economic inputoutput table and cultivated landse data in China, this paper conducts a time-serial research dur-ng 19872007. To reflect the purchase power change during theesearch period, corresponding GDP deflators (see Table A1) aresed to adjust price level to the base year of 1987.. Results and discussions.1. Chinas embodied cultivated land use in 2007.1.1. IntensityThe embodied cultivated land intensities of the 42 sectorssector information is provided in Table A2) for China 2007 areresented in Fig. 1. Sector 1 (Agriculture) has the highest intensityf 3.12 ha/thousand Yuan, followed by Sectors 6 (Food Processing),1 (Hotels, Catering Service) and 7 (Textile Industry) with inten-ities of 1.51, 0.86 and 0.84 ha/thousand Yuan, respectively. Allhese four sectors are closely related to necessaries of daily lifeor residences, i.e., food and clothing, the production of whichre highly associated with farm crops. In terms of more aggre-ated economic level, the average intensity of primary industries3.12 ha/thousand Yuan) is 9.93 times higher than that of sec-ndary industries (0.29 ha/thousand Yuan) and 16.94 times higherhan that of tertiary industries (0.17 ha/thousand Yuan). The hugendustrial difference shows that industrial structure adjustmentas great influence on cultivated land management in China..1.2. TradeThe distribution of embodied cultivated land in trade ofhe 42 sectors for China 2007 is presented in Fig. 2. For ELI,he largest importing sector in China is Sector 1 (Agriculture,.27 million hectares), followed by Sectors 12 (Chemical Products,.36 million hectares), 6 (Food Processing, 2.39 million hectares) andPlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.0199 (Telecommunications Equipment, 1.79E million hectares). Withespect to ELE, Sectors 7 (Textile Industry), 8 (Garments) and 6 (Foodrocessing) rank the top three with the values of 6.92, 3.54 andctor codeintensity by sector in 2007.2.89 million hectares. In terms of sectoral trade balance, Sector 1(Agriculture) is the largest net importer of embodied cultivated landin China, while Sector 7 (Textile Industry) is the largest net exporter.Actually, China has entered an era of being net importer of agricul-tural products, especially for the three major staple grain crops ofwheat, rice and corn, and the import dependency has a remark-able rising trend in the past 10 years (Liu, 2013). Therefore, Chinashould take responsibility for occupying foreign agriculture landthrough the growing agricultural product trade. As a net exporterof cultivated land with total ELI and ELE of 19.92 and 27.97 millionhectares, China transfers too much cultivated-land-intensive prod-ucts, e.g., textile products, to other countries, especially under thecircumstance that cultivated land resources are so scarce in thiscountry. Therefore, it is important to establish strict export policiesfor these cultivated-land-intensive products.3.1.3. ConsumptionShown in Fig. 3 is ELC of the 42 sectors for China 2007. Sec-tors 1 (Agriculture) and 6 (Food Processing) embody the first andsecond largest volumes of cultivated land with 42.26 and26.70 million hectares, mainly attributed to household consump-tion to meet the increasing food demand. Sector 26 (Construction)provides the third largest embodied cultivated land of 7.12 millionhectares due to its significant fixed capital investment, even thoughthe sector has a very lower embodied cultivated land intensityof 0.12 ha/thousand Yuan. Sector 31 (Hotels, Catering Service) alsoaccounts for considerable ELC, which is mainly contributed byurban household consumption of food in restaurants.3.2. Chinas embodied cultivated land use during 198720073.2.1. Temporal change of efficiencyThe cultivated land use efficiency is a measure of the overall(including direct and indirect) cultivated land costs per economicoutput, which can be expressed as the embodied cultivated landintensity. Fig. 4 compares the embodied cultivated land intensitiesof the concerned years. The embodied intensities for these 20 yearsshow a downward trend, declining from 7.12 to 0.13 ha/thousandYuan. The exponential trend line is simulated with a high goodnessof fit as represented by a high R2 value of 0.9461. The result showsChinas effort and effectiveness to improve cultivated land use effi-ciency through technical development, land policies and industrialand trade structures adjustments. However, the average annualltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),Yuan during this period, which shows the potential of increas-ing efficient to conserve cultivated land use is quite limited in thefuture. Therefore, China need to devote more effort to develop andx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 12S. Guo et al. / Ecological Indicators xxx (2014) xxxxxx 5-6.00-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.004139373533312927252321191715131197531Embodied cultivated land in trade (million hectares)ImportExport landimtiiittdacd-8.00Fig. 2. Embodied cultivatedntegrated cultivated land use management mode combined withodern agricultural technology application and economic struc-ure adjustment.Industrial structure analysis is identified as an important aspectn IOA, thus industrial embodied cultivated land intensity changesn China during 19872007 are showed as Fig. 5. In the intra-ndustry comparison, all the embodied cultivated land intensities ofhree major industries during the concerned years show downwardrends: embodied cultivated land intensity of primary industryPlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019eclines greatly from 2.50 to 0.09 ha/thousand Yuan, which can bettributed to the improvement of cultivated land use efficiency. Byontrast, embodied intensities of secondary and tertiary industriesrop slightly from 0.36 to 0.01 ha/thousand Yuan and from 0.16 to0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00191715131197531Embodied cultivated land in consumption(million hectares)SInventory increaseGovernment consumptionRural household consumptionFig. 3. Embodied cultivated land in c in trade by sector in 2007.0.01 ha/thousand Yuan, respectively. In the inter-industry compar-ison, a huge difference of three major industries is shown in 1987,that is, the intensity of primary industry is 5.98 and 14.83 timeshigher than the level of secondary and tertiary industries. But withthe agricultural production technical development, the industrialdifference of embodied cultivated land intensity has been narrowedover years. In 2007, the intensity of primary industry is reduced tothe same level as the secondary and tertiary industries, demon-strating the limited improving potential of direct cultivated useltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),efficiency in the future. Therefore, the industrial structure changewill play an increasing important role in protecting cultivated land,and more emphasis should be given to the industrial structureadjustment in policy implications.4139373533312927252321ector codeFixed capital formationUrban household consumptiononsumption by sector in 2007.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 126 S. Guo et al. / Ecological Indicators xxx (2014) xxxxxx1987 19921990 1995 1997 20022000 20072005R = 0.94610.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00Embodied cultivated land intensity(hectares/thousand Yuan)ted lan3awflgi1aavCndiofatacsfntFig. 4. Embodied cultiva.2.2. Temporal change of trade patternFrom the perspective of trade balance, China is consistently net exporter of cultivated land during 19872007 (see Fig. 6),hich demonstrates that China has been a cultivated land supplieror the globalized economy. Despite receiving embodied cultivatedand deficit during the whole research period, Chinas ELB variesreatly. The minimum ELB of 2.71 million hectares is obtainedn 1995, while the largest two values are received in 2007 and990 with 8.06 and 7.84 million hectares. The fluctuation can bettributed to the evolutions of Chinas international trade systemnd trade structure. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, theolume of international trade of China continues to climb. In 2003,hina overtook the United States and became the largest tradingation in the world. With the increasing net export volume butecreasing embodied cultivated land intensity, the EBL varies dur-ng 19872007. In the future, China will open itself wider to theutside world and the trade volume will keep in a high level. There-ore, how to balance the economic and environment benefits andvoid the cultivated land loss are highly important for the coun-ry. Downsizing the cultivated-land-intensive industries scale anddjusting the trade structure are two main factors for relieving theultivated land use pressures. Chinas trade structure has changedPlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ignificantly during the past decades: export structure changedrom primary products dominated to manufactured goods domi-ated in the 1980s, from mainly light industrial and textile productso mainly mechanical and electronic products in the 1990s, and1987 19921990 1995 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00Embodied cultivated land intensity(hectares/thousand Yuan)Primary Industry SecondFig. 5. Embodied cultivated land intensity bYeard intensity, 19872007.from traditional products to electronics and information technol-ogy commodities in the 2000s (IOSC, 2013). All these changes followthe cultivated land resource-conserving principle, that is, fromcultivated-land-intensive industries dominated to lower-intensityindustries dominated.The embodied cultivated land in trade balance of three majorindustries shows different trends as shown in Fig. 7. Primary indus-try changes from a net exporter to a net importer during 19872007due to food demand growth, domestic and foreign price varianceof agricultural product, which make China meet the challenge ofagricultural production scarcity and food safety. The embodiedcultivated land in net export of the secondary industry increasessharply since 2002, when China entered World Trade Organiza-tion (WTO) and became the world factory contributed by thefast growing manufacturing industry. The tertiary industry keepsa trade balance during the concerned years. To sum up, ELBsinflection points of the three industries arrives at 1990 and 2002,corresponding with some significant trade policies, such as Chinasmarket economy system reform and Chinas entering WTO.3.2.3. Production- versus consumption-based embodiedcultivated land useltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),Shown in Fig. 8 is the comparison of production- andconsumption-based embodied cultivated land during 19872007.The total cultivated land area in China from the perspective of pro-duction sees a modest decrease from 95.89 million hectares in 19871997 20022000 20072005Yearary Industry Tertiary Industryy three major industries, 19872007.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 12S. Guo et al. / Ecological Indicators xxx (2014) xxxxxx 71987 19921990 19971995 20022000 200720050.001.503.004.506.007.509.00Embodied cultivated land in netexport (million hectares)YearFig. 6. Embodied cultivated land in trade balance, 19872007.1987 19921990 1997 1995 20022000 20072005-8.00-4.000.004.008.0012.0016.00Embodied cultivated land in net export(million hectares)Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry balantvwswUtctFig. 7. Embodied cultivated land in tradeo 94.97 million hectares in 1995, dropping by 0.12%. The culti-ated land has a great increase of 18.39% in the next two years,hich might be largely contributed by the change of land statisticystem (Zhu, 2007). The next decade experiences a moderate down-ard trend from 129.90 million hectares to 121.74 million hectares.Please cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019nder the stringent cultivated land protection policies made inhe 11th Five-Year Plan to retain at least 120 million hectares ofultivated land, Cui and Kattumuri (2011) believe that most ofhe cultivated land loss during recent years can be attributed to1987 19921990 1995 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00Embodied cultivated land(million hectares)productionFig. 8. Production- versus consumption-based eYearce by three major industries, 19872007.ecological restoration and urban expansion. For example, 58.7% ofthe abandoned cultivated land lost used for ecological restorationbetween 1997 and 2008 (Comin, 2010). On the other hand, Chinahas entered a period of accelerating urbanization, leading to thechanges of industrial structure and corresponding land use pattern,ltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),which means the built-up land is also taking up a lot of cultivatedland (Chen, 2007).The consumption-based embodied cultivated land shows a sim-ilar changing trend: it decreases from 91.51 million hectares in1997 20022000 20072005Yearconsumptionmbodied cultivated land use, 19872007.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ARTICLE IN PRESSG ModelECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 128 S. Guo et al. / Ecological Indicators xxx (2014) xxxxxx1987 19921990 19971995 20022000 200720050.0015.0030.0045.0060.0075.0090.00Embodied cultivated land(million hectares)Primary Industry Secondary Industry Tertiary Industryted lan1t1tpitsstapCaetpasaibtthe output of major agricultural products increases steadily dur-Fig. 9. Consumption-based embodied cultiva987 to 90.53 million hectares in 1992, then slightly increaseso 92.26 million hectares in 1995 and sharply increases to25.28 million hectares in 1997. After that, it gradually decreaseso 103.60 million hectares in 2007 with the descent rate of 1.73%er year. However, the cultivated land embodied in consumptions always smaller than the direct cultivated land use within Chinaserritory in 19872007, and the difference is expanding. This resulthows that China has paid a highly cultivated land resource cost toatisfy consumption outside its territory. Therefore, correspondingrade policies avoiding the virtual cultivated land resources leak-ge are required in China based on the consumer responsibilityrinciple. Meanwhile, from the perspective of production principle,hina should make great efforts to develop high-tech agriculturend adjust the industrial structure to improve cultivated land usefficiency. Only by the criterion of responsibilities shared both ashe producer and the consumer, the cultivated land in China can berotected and exploited to the greatest extent (Fig. 9).From the perspective of production, cultivated land resourcesre all occupied by the agricultural sector. While from the per-pective of consumption, cultivated land resources are assigned toll the economic sectors. For the three major industries, primaryPlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019ndustry utilizes the largest proportion of ELC during 19872002,ut ELC by the secondary industry surpasses the primary indus-ry since 2005 with Chinas fast process of industrialization and0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00900.001987 1990 1992 1995 199 Output of major agricultural products(million tons)YeaFruits Sugarbeet Oil crops SoybeanRice Cultivated land areaFig. 10. Output of major agricultural products anYeard use by three major industries, 19872007.urbanization. The tertiary industrys ELC increases in fluctuationbut still only occupies the smallest resources among these threemajor industries. The above results imply the consumption of sec-ondary and tertiary industries will have greater influence on thecultivated land use in China due to the upgrading of domestic indus-trial structure.4. DiscussionsDemographic pressure and increasing competition for land inChina are likely to increase vulnerability to food security. Thisstudy illustrates the embodied cultivated land use in China tomeet the requirements of domestic consumption and internationaltrade during 19872007. Cultivated land area coupled with agri-cultural products should be of concern when facing a severe foodsecurity situation. Fig. 10 compares the output of major agricul-tural products and the responding cultivated land area to illustratethe linkage of agricultural products and cultivated land resources.Chinas cultivated land area has a general trend of fluctuations dur-ing 19871997, then it levels off in the next ten years. However,ltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),ing 19872007, mainly driven by the significant increasing trendof fruits products. China has been the largest fruits productioncountry with the yield rising from 16.68 million tons in 1987 to0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.007 2000 2002 2005 2007Cultivated land area (million hectares)rSugarcane CottonCorn Wheatd cultivated land area change, 19872007.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019 ING ModelEIndica1cttyfo5reupt2aMoLt1lzmdTsdiie22esrtmewCsS(tfadtpvoieht(sARTICLECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 12S. Guo et al. / Ecological 81.36 million tons in 2007. As the most important agriculturalrops, cereal crops, including rice, wheat and maize, have a rela-ively steady yield. Grassini et al. (2013) estimated that about 30% ofhe global cereal crops have reached their maximum possible cropield potential. The production proportion of cereal crops dropsrom 39.29% to 23.34% during 19872007 followed by the growthf other agricultural production.. Conclusions and policy implicationsThe evolution of Chinas cultivated land use policies is closelyelated to the economic and social changes and has shown differ-nt features in different periods. Before the reform and openingp in China, the cultivated land use policy subordinated to thelanned economy policy. The land tenure system was establishedo separate ownership and use right in the 1980s (Wang et al.,012). Associated with the land tenure system, a series of lawsnd regulations were promulgated, including Agriculture Law, Landanagement Law, Water and Soil Conservation Law, Equilibriumf Requisition-Compensation of Cultivated Land, etc. (Yang andi, 2000). Afterward, the 11th Five-Year Plan set a goal that theotal area of cultivated land in China stays above the red line of20 million hectares, which is the bottom-line area of cultivatedand in China (Cui and Kattumuri, 2011). In addition, the marketi-ation of land resources has been initiated based on the doubleaintenance policy-making strategy of maintaining economicevelopment and land resources conservation (Wang et al., 2012).o fully realize land marketization and balance better demand andupply of cultivated land, it is necessary to know the economicriving forces of cultivated land use.During recent years, the issue of cultivated land conservationn China is becoming more and more important owing to thencreasing food demand, the expansion of biofuel production, andspecially, the rapid urbanization (Fan et al., 2013; Qiang et al.,013). For example, the urban areas of China increased by almost5% during the 1990s, resulted in massive cultivated land loss (Jiangt al., 2013). Acknowledging the scarcity of cultivated land in China,tudies on how cultivated land in China is distributed to meet theequirements of consumption and trade based on IOA are rela-ively few. Under these circumstances, an ecological inputoutputodeling is carried out in China to analyze the cultivated landmbodied in domestic consumption and international trade in 2007ith sectoral details. Further, to identify the factors influencinghinas embodied cultivated land resources utilization, a temporalimulation of ELP, ELC, ELI and ELE during 19872007 is conducted.pecific results are as follows:1) Sectoral analysis on Chinas embodied cultivated land use.With regard to Chinas cultivated land in 2007, Sector 1 (Agricul-ure) has the highest embodied intensity of 3.12 ha/thousand Yuan,ollowed by Sectors 6 (Food Processing), 31 (Hotels, Catering Service)nd 7 (Textile Industry), which are all closely related to residentsaily lives. Based on the intensity database, the sectoral distribu-ions of cultivated land embodied in trade and consumption areresented. Sector 1 (Agriculture) is the largest net embodied culti-ated land importing sector of China due to its high dependencyf foreign agricultural products, while Sector 7 (Textile Industry)s the largest net exporter since China is the largest producer andxporter of textile. Sectors 1 (Agriculture) and 6 (Food Processing)ave the largest ELCs with 42.26 and 26.70 million hectares to meethe household food demand.Please cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.0192) Temporal analysis on Chinas embodied cultivated land useChinas embodied cultivated land intensities during 19872007how a downward trend, declining from 7.12 to 0.43 ha/thousand PRESStors xxx (2014) xxxxxx 9Yuan, showing Chinas effort and effectiveness to improve thecultivated land use efficiency. Despite receiving embodied cul-tivated land deficit during the whole research period, Chinascultivated land embodied in trade balance varies greatly fromthe minimum of 2.71 million hectares in 1995 to the maximumof 8.06 million hectares in 2007, which are closely related to theevolutions of Chinas international trade system and trade struc-ture. The production- and consumption-based cultivated land usepatterns show similar shape trends: changes moderately during19871995 and 19972007 but has a sudden rise from 1995 to1997.According to the industrial analysis of embodied cultivated landin this paper, it is necessary and important to establish the sharedresponsibility criterion in all the industries for cultivated land con-servation. The obligation of cultivated-land-intensive industriesis to improve land utilization efficiency by means of technicaldevelopment and resources reallocation. For example, agriculturalmechanization and automation are highly instrumental in effectiveuse of cultivated land in Sector 1 (Agriculture). Yet industries withlower cultivated land intensity are to make greater contribution toconsumption and trade activities. More export products from high-tech and service industries occupying less cultivated land resourcesare very helpful to restrict the outflow of cultivated land resourcesfrom China.In order to provide a consistent data supporting basis for policymaking, it is important to establish the historical cultivated landdatabase regularly by an effective accounting mechanism. Accord-ing to the results of this study, China has paid a high cultivated landresource cost to satisfy consumption outside its territory, thougha downward trend of embodied intensities for the 20 years con-firms the countrys effort and effectiveness to improve cultivatedland use efficiency. Encouragingly, China places high priority ontrade structural change, i.e., increasing export of manufactured,high-tech products such as electronic devices (with lower culti-vated land intensity) to replace the traditional, low-end productssuch as textile (with higher cultivated land intensity), which is ben-eficial to balance the economic and environment benefits and avoidcultivated land loss.Our attempt to evaluate Chinas cultivated land use during19872007 has several limitations. First, this study tries to analyzeChinas overall cultivated land resources, which are aggregated intoonly one sector (Agriculture Sector) but not separated into differ-ent sectors based on the cultivated land use types due to the dataavailability. Therefore, the embodied cultivated land intensities ofdifferent agricultural products are equal since they derive from thesame industrial sector. However, to facilitate a better examinationof Chinas cultivated land protection policies, a much more detailedunderstanding about various cultivated land use types for differentagricultural products in China requires further research. Second, asin conventional inputoutput studies, it is assumed that importedcommodities have the same embodied cultivated land intensitiesas domestic ones due to the limitation of import intensity data,though the imported commodities show a substantial differencefrom domestic ones (Weber et al., 2008). Third, different sector clas-sifications from different original inputoutput data sources areused in this study, which impedes detailed sectoral comparison.Sector consistency is required if a comparative study is conducted(Su et al., 2010). But corresponding error will be generated due todifferent sector classifications in Chinas original IO tables. How-ever, this research focuses on the comparison of Chinas overallcultivated land change, which is not sensitive to the level of sectorclassification. Therefore, this paper does not consider sector classi-ltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),fication differences and sector aggregation or disaggregation. If thesector aggregation or disaggregation is considered in this study,additional sector aggregation or disaggregation error also needsto be analyzed. Fourth, Chinas land statistic system was set up indx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019 ING ModelE1 Indica1sst3yiqsacsabscTGTSARTICLECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 120 S. Guo et al. / Ecological 987, since then, the statistic procedures have experienced threetages: before 1996, information was collected from year-roundurvey from January 1st to December 31st; then during 19962006,he survey was adjusted to cover from only March 1st to October1st of a year; since 2007, the survey was reverted to the initialear-round standard (Jiang, 2013; Wang et al., 2012). The changen the land data collection procedures has a negative impact on datauality and consistency, which increases difficulties for time-serialtudy. However, as land use pattern is comparatively stable during year at the national scale, the data discrepancy introduced fromollection procedure changes is considered to be acceptable for thistudy. Last but not least, this study applies national GDP deflators toPlease cite this article in press as: Guo, S., et al., Embodied cuhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019djust price change instead of using other price indicators. It shoulde noticed that price change during the research period varies fromectors to sectors and thus a more detailed sectoral price level indi-ators can portray such variation more precisely. However, due toable A1DP deflators during 19872007 (calculated from CSY (2012)).Year 1987 1990 1992 1995 GDP deflator 100.00 128.76 148.87 235.16 able A2ectors for Chinas economic inputoutput table 2007.Code Sector 1 Farming, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery and WaterConservancy2 Coal Mining and Dressing 3 Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction 4 Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Mining and Dressing 5 Nonmetal and Other Minerals Mining and Dressing 6 Food Processing, Food Production, Beverage Production, Tobacco Process7 Textile Industry 8 Garments and Other Fiber Products, Leather, Furs, Down and Related Pro9 Timber Processing, Bamboo, Cane, Palm and Straw Products, FurnitureManufacturing10 Papermaking and Paper Products, Printing and Record Medium ReproducCultural, Educational and Sports Articles11 Petroleum Processing and Coking, Gas Production and Supply 12 Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products, Medical and PharmaceuProducts, Chemical Fiber, Rubber Products, Plastic Products13 Nonmetal Mineral Products 14 Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals 15 Metal Products 16 Ordinary Machinery, Equipment for Special Purpose 17 Transportation Equipment 18 Electric Equipment and Machinery 19 Electronic and Telecommunications Equipment 20 Instruments, Meters Cultural and Office Machinery 21 Manufacture of Artwork and Other Manufactures 22 Waste 23 Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply 24 Gas Production and Supply Industry 25 Water Production and Supply Industry 26 Construction Industry 27 Transport and Storage 28 Post 29 Information Transmission, Computer services and Software 30 Wholesale, Retail Trade 31 Hotels, Catering Service 32 Financial Industry 33 Real Estate 34 Leasing and Commercial Services 35 Research and Experimental Development 36 Polytechnic Services 37 Water conservancy, Environment and Public Facilities Management 38 Service to Households and Other Service 39 Education 40 Health, Social Security and Social Welfare 41 Culture, Sports and Entertainment 42 Public Management and Social Organization PRESStors xxx (2014) xxxxxxdata limitation the sectoral level price indicator is not available inthis study.AcknowledgementsThe authors are grateful to Dr. Derek Drew for his useful com-ments on the study. This study has been supported by the HongKong PhD Fellowship Scheme established by the Research GrantsCouncil in Hong Kong and Ministry of Education Foundation ofChina (No. 12YJCZH021).ltivated land use in China 19872007. Ecol. Indicat. (2014),Appendix A.See Appendix Tables A1 and A2.1997 2000 2002 2005 2007254.09 253.68 260.42 296.87 331.71Short Name Industrial ClassificationAgriculture Primary IndustryCoal MiningSecondary IndustryPetroleum ExtractionMetals Mining and DressingMinerals Mining and Dressinging Food ProcessingTextile Industryducts GarmentsTimber Processingtion, Paper ProductsPetroleum Processingtical Chemical ProductsNonmetal Mineral ProductsSmelting and Pressing of metalMetal ProductsOrdinary MachineryTransportation EquipmentElectric EquipmentTelecommunications EquipmentInstruments, MetersManufacture of ArtworkWasteElectric PowerGas Production and SupplyWater Production and SupplyConstructionTransport and StorageTertiary IndustryPostInformationWholesale, Retail TradeHotels, Catering ServiceFinancial IndustryReal EstateLeasingResearchPolytechnic ServicesEnvironmentService to HouseholdsEducationHealthCulturePublic Managementdx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.05.019 ING ModelEIndicaRBCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCFFGGGGGGHHARTICLECOIND-1959; No. of Pages 12S. 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cultivated land use in China 198720071 Introduction2 Methodology and data2.1 Algorithm2.2 Data sources3 Results and discussions3.1 China's embodied cultivated land use in 20073.1.1 Intensity3.1.2 Trade3.1.3 Consumption3.2 China's embodied cultivated land use during 198720073.2.1 Temporal change of efficiency3.2.2 Temporal change of trade pattern3.2.3 Production- versus consumption-based embodied cultivated land use4 Discussions5 Conclusions and policy implications(1) Sectoral analysis on China's embodied cultivated land use.(2) Temporal analysis on China's embodied cultivated land useAcknowledgementsReferencesReferences

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