Future Directions in Civil-Military Responses

to Natural DisastersBy Elizabeth Ferris

Co-Director of the Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement

2

Over the last ten years, natural disasters affected more than 2.4 billion people – the equivalent of one-third of the earth’s population – and they have wrought over USD 910 billion in damages – equivalent to approximately 16% of global GDP.

“Our World, Your Move. Disaster Laws: discussion paper.” Prepared for 31st International Conference of the Red Cross/Red Crescent Movement. Geneva, 28 Nov-1 Dec 2011.

L’Aquila Earthquake, 2009 (AP)

3

What we know:• There is likely to be an increase in intensity and severity of

climate-related sudden-onset natural disasters

• There will probably be an increase in slow-onset disasters

• Increasing vulnerability due to urbanization and mega-trends of population growth

The Big Picture: Natural Disasters in the Future

Rescue workers evacuate stranded people during Hurricane Katrina, 2005 (NYTimes)

Farmland abandoned in Victoria, Australia as a result of drought, 2006 (Kenins)

4

Increasing Number of Natural Disasters

5

•But…how natural is natural?•How sudden is sudden?•What does it mean to be ‘affected’ by

natural disasters?•Mega-disasters and cascading disasters

6

What we know:• In 90% of disasters, fewer than 50 people

are killed

• The intersection of disasters with conflict creates particular difficulties in response

• Humanitarian system is likely to come under increasing strain as scale and intensity of natural disasters increase

Chinese doctors in Haiti, 2010 (Xinhua)

7

» lack of command and control system

» proliferation of actors

» difficulties in coordination with affected government and local civil society

» role of media in triggering response

» inequities in financing response and prevention

» more fundamental questions about whether the present humanitarian ‘business model’ works

The International Humanitarian system: weaknesses

UNCHR staff load supplies for cyclone victims in Myanmar, 2008 (UNCHR)

8

1: The military will increasingly be called to respond to sudden-onset natural disasters both at home and abroad.

Five observations on civ-mil relations in natural disaster response

2: Generally there are fewer political tensions in civ-mil relations in natural disasters than in conflict settings.

• Military expertise / capacity is recognized• Perceptions of national military• Complementarity of roles is still a challenge

American troops land at the National Palace in Port-au-Prince (Reuters)

9

3: International actors (military or civilian) aren’t – and perhaps can’t be – fast enough in immediate response.

4: In 3 phases of disaster management (prevention, response, recovery), military’s role is most needed and accepted in response, least in recovery.

Five observations on civ-mil relations in natural disaster response

Firefighters carry out a body from the rubble of the L’Aquila earthquake, 2009

(AP)

National Guard soldiers work search-and-rescue missions in Missouri following the 2011 tornado (Ann Keyes)

10

5: Preparedness: what can be done before a disaster that facilitates disaster response?» Contingency planning & coordination structures» Legal preparedness» Trust

Five observations on civ-mil relations in natural disaster response

Chinese soldiers carry supplies to survivors of the Sichuan earthquake, 2008 (Getty)

A man is detained by police who accused him of looting from the destroyed Interior Ministry after the earthquake in Haiti (NYTimes)

11

Challenge 1: Responding to urban disasters

Five challenges in future response to natural disasters

Amid the ruins of Port-au-Prince following the earthquake in Haiti (NYTimes)

12

Challenge 2: Responding to disasters in developed countries

Five challenges in future response to natural disasters

Forest fire in Tonimbuk township in Victoria, Australia 2009 (EPA)

An area in northeastern Japan hat had been swept by the tsunami (Reuters)

13

Challenge 3: When disasters occur in conflict zones

Five challenges in future response to natural disasters

People inspected debris after Typhoon Megi tore through San Jose in the Philippines in 2010 (Getty)

14

Challenge 4: When natural and technological disasters overlap

Five challenges in future response to natural disasters

Japanese evacuees from near the Fukusima Nuclear Power Plant receive radiation scans after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami (Getty Images)

15

Challenge 5: Taking local capacity seriously

Five challenges in future response to natural disasters

Flood victims using a cable car to flee the Chakdara region in Pakistan in 2010 (European Press)

THANK YOU