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© OECD/IEA 2016
Electro-mobility: status and prospects Findings from the Global EV Outlook 2016
Pierpaolo Cazzola, International Energy Agency
IEA Renewable Energy Working Party, 28 March 2017
© OECD/IEA 2016
Electric Vehicles Initiative
EVI: Multi-government policy forum established in 2009 under CEM
Knowledge-sharing on policies and programs that support EV deployment
Global EV Outlook 2016, released on 31 May
EVI data and analysis are at the basis of IEA’s WEO and ETP scenarios
© OECD/IEA 2016
550,000 EVs sold in 2015 (+ 70%); about 750,000 in 2016
China became the first EV market in 2015 nd consolidated its lead in in 2016, when it accounted for roughly half of the global EV sales
EU second global market (210,000 in 2016), US third (160,000)
7 countries > 1% market share in 2015; 6 countries in 2016
Norway – 29% in 2016, Netherlands – 6%, Sweden, France, China, UK
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
50
100
150
200
250C
hin
a
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Net
her
lan
ds
No
rway
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Jap
an
Ger
man
y
Fran
ce
Swed
en
Oth
ers
Mar
ket
shar
e (2
01
5)
New
ele
ctri
c ca
r re
gist
rati
on
s (t
ho
usa
nd
s)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 marketshare
Electric car market
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV stock evolution, 2010-2015
1.26 million EVs in circulation by end of 2015; about 2 million by the end of 2016
59% BEVs in 2015, PHEV increasing in 2016 4/5 EVs in 5 countries (US, China, Japan, Netherlands, Norway) Other modes: 200 M e-2Wheelers, 173 k e-buses (mainly in China) in
2015
2015: 1 million EVs
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Elec
tric
car
sto
ck (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Others
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Norway
Netherlands
Japan
China
United States
BEV
BEV + PHEV
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV Supply Equipment
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
-on
-yea
r gr
ow
th r
ate
Ch
argi
ng
ou
tlet
s
Private chargers
Publicly available fastchargers
Publicly available slowchargers
Growth rate of publiclyavailable fast chargers
Growth rate of publiclyaccessible slow chargers
Growth rate of privatechargers
0.82 million
1.45 million
EVSE deployment currently mainly focused on home chargers
The deployment of publicly accessible chargers is positively correlated with the growth in EV sales
© OECD/IEA 2016
RD&D Battery costs and energy density
Very encouraging signs from recent developments
Battery costs (PHEV): -73% in the past 7 years
Further improvements needed
Ambitious announcements in the near future: -58% to go in the next 7 years
0
50
100
150
200
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300
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450
500
0
200
400
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800
1000
1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2022
Bat
tery
en
ergy
den
sity
(W
h/L
)
Bat
tery
co
st (
USD
/kW
h)
Battery cost (PHEV) 2022 DOE Battery cost target (PHEV)
2020 Tesla Battery cost target (BEV) 2022 GM Battery cost target (BEV)
Energy density (PHEV) 2022 DOE Energy density target (PHEV)
$268/kWh
295Wh/L
400Wh/L
$125/kWh
© OECD/IEA 2016
Policy support Purchase incentives and EV market shares, 2015
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
Ch
ina
Fran
ce
Jap
an
Net
her
lan
ds
No
rway
Po
rtu
gal
Swed
en
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Sha
re o
f P
HEV
or
BEV
in
tota
l ca
r m
ark
et
Esti
ma
ted
ma
gnit
ud
e o
f p
urc
ha
se in
cen
tive
(U
SD)
PHEVs
BEVs
BEV market share
PHEV market share
EVs are unlikely to happen without policy support and technological development
Various policy mechanisms are now behind the “market pull” Vehicle purchase incentives and EVSE identified as major prerequisites
for high EV market shares, additional measures add to the EV value propositions
Policy support remains necessary in the short term to boost EV
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV deployment scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Elec
tric
car
s in
th
e ve
hic
le s
tock
(m
illio
ns)
Historical
IEA 2DS
Paris Declaration
EVI 2020 target
Cumulative countrytargets
1.26 million 13 million
20 million
100 million
140 million World
60 million
WEO 2016 NPS
Prospects are of EV growth, no matter the scenario Flexibility/hedging on price variability and cost reductions possible
(PHEVs) EVs fit to meet the needs for energy diversification and GHG emission
reduction
© OECD/IEA 2016
Source: RTE, 2016
EV deployment scenarios
Impacts on the load profile
Some impact on demand peak expected Likely to be manageable with price signals and other DSM measures DSM: questions on how to ensure response from EV owners exist
Little economic incentives Need for aggregators for sizeable impacts
About 10-15% of the car stock
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV deployment scenarios
Impacts on the grid
Local impacts are the earliest to come Charging behaviour matters Slow charging One charger adds the equivalent of one apartment in terms of capacity Potential for flexibility through variable charging Synergies with the integration of variable renewables
Fast charging: Potentially disruptive locally for distribution grids: one charger accounts like an
apartment building in terms of capacity Does not offer flexibility: you fast charge because you need charging quick and
now Not likely to take place in the evening demand peak (plug when you get home)
Opportunities mainly for DSM (delayed charging) Some scope for bidirectional charging/energy storage may exist
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV deployment scenarios
EVs and high renewable shares
What could happen with high renewables? Greater variability of supply
Need for greater variability of demand Growing importance of DSM, including EVs
Stronger need for opting in of EV owners in DSM schemes
Increasing space for bidirectional charging/energy storage
Source: RTE, 2016
