electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle roadmap · pdf fileadequate incentives for ev/phev...
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EVs achieve superiority to internal combustion engines in most respects, close the gap in driving range
Vehicle sales 70 millionGlobal market share 48%
Vehicle sales 100 millionGlobal market share 60%
Availability of higher power/energy-dense batteries should position policy makers to encourage remaining segments of light-duty vehicle markets to “go electric”, including greater use in larger, longer-distance vehicles
Ongoing recharging infrastructure and generation system expansion and refinement as needed; with ongoing increase in systems and capacity to handle fast charging
Ongoing RD&D as needed; focus on improving battery performance to maximise vehicle driving range
Batteries continue to improve; introduce a new generation of batteries that significantly outperform lithium-ion at a similar cost
Fast recharging options have achieved lower cost, with batteries well suited; support for widespread implementation of fast recharging as needed to ensure widespread availability
Completion of most recharging infrastructure in OECD and other major economies; expand globally as countries establish reliable, low-carbon electricity generation systems
Achieve widespread introduction of next generation of battery, full deployment of smart-grid systems and related technologies
Vehicles/batteries
Vehicle sales 7 millionGlobal market share 9%
Policy framework
Recharging/electricity infrastructure
RD&D
Common systems for vehicle-to-grid electricity sales, fast recharge and/or battery swapping well established
Vehicle sales 30 millionGlobal market share 30%
Vehicles become fully commercial, batteries reach all target specifications for cost and durability, including additional cycling tolerance in line with advanced batteries; full recycling systems in place
EVs should become commercially viable without significant subsidies; support should continue for widespread expansion of recharching infrastructure
Codes/standards
Continue RD&D on advanced battery designs moving towards demonstration and deployment as concepts mature; incorporate lessons learned from earlier experiences
Expansion of recharging infrastructure to more areas; greater use of fast recharging; fully established vehicle-to-grid electricity systems
Low- and medium-volume production, with design optimisations to 2015, then rapidly increase numbers of models offered and average production volumes; battery and other costs decline to target levels
Adequate incentives for EV/PHEV purchase and production in line with targets; co-ordination of recharging infrastructure development in key areas
Ensure plugs and charging systems are compatible across major regions, including basic “smart metering” systems for home and public recharging stations; develop protocols for fast recharging
Ensure vehicle/battery systems are reliable and safe; achieve near-term technical and cost targets, such as USD 300/kWh battery cost; develop advanced battery concepts and prototypes
Establish home recharging and begin major investments in street/office daytime commercial recharging, including rapid charging where appropriate
Refine codes and standards as needed; modify to accommodate innovations in batteries, smart grid systems, etc., but minimise the need for reinvestments in existing systems
Annual light-duty vehicle sales,BLUE Map scenario, 2000-2050
ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLE RoADmAP
Key findings
u Roadmap vision: industry and governments should attain a combined EV/PHEV sales share of at least 50% of LDV sales worldwide by 2050.
u In addition to contributing significant greenhouse-gas emissions reductions, the roadmap’s level of EV/PHEV sales will deliver substantial benefits in terms of improved oil security, reduced urban area pollution and noise.
u Policy support is critical, especially in two areas: ensuring vehicles become cost-competitive and providing adequate recharging infrastructure.
u The consumer comes first: wider use of EVs/PHEVs will require an improved understanding of consumer needs and desires, as well as consumer willingness to change vehicle purchase and travel behaviour.
u Performance measurement will be needed: the IEA roadmap contains a set of proposed metrics and targets for key attributes like driving range and battery requirements to ensure that EVs/PHEVs achieve their potential.
u RD&D priorities: research, development and demonstration must continue to reduce battery costs and ensure adequate materials supply. More research is also needed on smart grids and the vehicle-grid interface.
u International collaboration can accelerate deployment: industry and governments need to work together on research programmes, codes and standards, and alignment of vehicle and infrastructure roll-out.
© O
ECD
/IEA
, 201
0
EV/PHEV roadmap milestones
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International Energy Agencywww.iea.org/roadmaps
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� H2 hybrid fuel cell
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� Hybrid (gasoline)
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ElectricCNG/LPG Plug-in hybrid diesel
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PHEV contribution (from electricity)PHEV contribution (from liquid fuel efficiency)
Other (conventional efficiency, fuel cell vehicles, mix shift)
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CO2 emission reduction, BLUE Map scenario, 2010-2050
www.iea.org/roadmaps © O
ECD
/IEA
, 201
0
Urgent action needed in the next 10 years to achieve 2050 targets
The GHG reductions and EV/PHEV penetrations displayed here are based on the IEA ETP BLUE Map scenario, which targets an aggressive 50% reduction in CO2 worldwide by 2050 relative to 2005 levels. For transport, a 30% GHG reduction is targeted, which will require rapid market penetration of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
For light-duty vehicles, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles account for 2.6 Gt of CO2-equivalent emissions reductions by 2050, about half of total reductions for light-duty vehicles.
Less carbon-intensive electricity is needed to realise EV/PHEV emissions reductions
Global map of regional EV/PHEV sales
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EV/PHEV sales must reach substantial levels by 2015, and rise rapidly thereafter in order to achieve 2050 CO2 reduction targets. Sales are expected to spread to non-OECD regions over time.
Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle indicative sales targets in BLUE Map scenario
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World0
500
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EV contribution
PHEV contribution (from electricity)PHEV contribution (from liquid fuel efficiency)
Other (conventional efficiency, fuel cell vehicles, mix shift)
6.0
0.8
CO2 emission reduction, BLUE Map scenario, 2010-2050
www.iea.org/roadmaps © O
ECD
/IEA
, 201
0
Urgent action needed in the next 10 years to achieve 2050 targets
The GHG reductions and EV/PHEV penetrations displayed here are based on the IEA ETP BLUE Map scenario, which targets an aggressive 50% reduction in CO2 worldwide by 2050 relative to 2005 levels. For transport, a 30% GHG reduction is targeted, which will require rapid market penetration of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
For light-duty vehicles, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles account for 2.6 Gt of CO2-equivalent emissions reductions by 2050, about half of total reductions for light-duty vehicles.
Less carbon-intensive electricity is needed to realise EV/PHEV emissions reductions
Global map of regional EV/PHEV sales
EV sales
PHEV sales
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s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2015 2030 2050
500 80
0
9 30
0
24 6
00
52 2
00
49 1
00
Tota
l EV
+ PH
EV g
loba
l veh
icle
sal
es
EV sales
PHEV sales
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
All other
2015 2030 2050
10 40
1 60
0
3 90
0
16 5
00
19 9
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
India
2015 2030 2050
30 50
600
1 90
0
8 60
0 9 60
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
China
2015 2030 2050
100
150
2 20
0
6 20
0
9 40
0
11 4
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Pacific
2015 2030 2050
70 140 70
0
1 90
0
2 40
0
1 30
0Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Europe
2015 2030 2050
140
170
2 00
0
4 70
0
6 40
0
3 10
0
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD North America
2015 2030 2050
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
150
260
2 10
0
5 90
0
8 80
0
3 80
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2015 2030 2050
500 80
0
9 30
0
24 6
00
52 2
00
49 1
00
Tota
l EV
+ PH
EV g
loba
l veh
icle
sal
es
EV sales
PHEV sales
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
All other
2015 2030 2050
10 40
1 60
0
3 90
0
16 5
00
19 9
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
India
2015 2030 2050
30 50
600
1 90
0
8 60
0 9 60
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
China
2015 2030 2050
100
150
2 20
0
6 20
0
9 40
0
11 4
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Pacific
2015 2030 2050
70 140 70
0
1 90
0
2 40
0
1 30
0Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Europe
2015 2030 2050
140
170
2 00
0
4 70
0
6 40
0
3 10
0
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD North America
2015 2030 2050
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
150
260
2 10
0
5 90
0
8 80
0
3 80
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2015 2030 2050
500 80
0
9 30
0
24 6
00
52 2
00
49 1
00
Tota
l EV
+ PH
EV g
loba
l veh
icle
sal
es
EV sales
PHEV sales
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
All other
2015 2030 2050
10 40
1 60
0
3 90
0
16 5
00
19 9
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
India
2015 2030 2050
30 50
600
1 90
0
8 60
0 9 60
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
China
2015 2030 2050
100
150
2 20
0
6 20
0
9 40
0
11 4
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Pacific
2015 2030 2050
70 140 70
0
1 90
0
2 40
0
1 30
0Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Europe
2015 2030 2050
140
170
2 00
0
4 70
0
6 40
0
3 10
0
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD North America
2015 2030 2050
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
150
260
2 10
0
5 90
0
8 80
0
3 80
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2015 2030 2050
500 80
0
9 30
0
24 6
00
52 2
00
49 1
00
Tota
l EV
+ PH
EV g
loba
l veh
icle
sal
es
EV sales
PHEV sales
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
All other
2015 2030 2050
10 40
1 60
0
3 90
0
16 5
00
19 9
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
India
2015 2030 2050
30 50
600
1 90
0
8 60
0 9 60
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
China
2015 2030 2050
100
150
2 20
0
6 20
0
9 40
0
11 4
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Pacific
2015 2030 2050
70 140 70
0
1 90
0
2 40
0
1 30
0Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Europe
2015 2030 2050
140
170
2 00
0
4 70
0
6 40
0
3 10
0
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD North America
2015 2030 2050
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
150
260
2 10
0
5 90
0
8 80
0
3 80
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2015 2030 2050
500 80
0
9 30
0
24 6
00
52 2
00
49 1
00
Tota
l EV
+ PH
EV g
loba
l veh
icle
sal
esEV sales
PHEV sales
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
All other
2015 2030 2050
10 40
1 60
0
3 90
0
16 5
00
19 9
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
India
2015 2030 2050
30 50
600
1 90
0
8 60
0 9 60
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
China
2015 2030 2050
100
150
2 20
0
6 20
0
9 40
0
11 4
00
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Pacific
2015 2030 2050
70 140 70
0
1 90
0
2 40
0
1 30
0Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD Europe
2015 2030 2050
140
170
2 00
0
4 70
0
6 40
0
3 10
0
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
OECD North America
2015 2030 2050
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
150
260
2 10
0
5 90
0
8 80
0
3 80
0
Tota
l sal
es (
thou
sand
s)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
2015 2030 2050
500 80
0
9 30
0
24 6
00
52 2
00
49 1
00
Tota
l EV
+ PH
EV g
loba
l veh
icle
sal
es
EV/PHEV sales must reach substantial levels by 2015, and rise rapidly thereafter in order to achieve 2050 CO2 reduction targets. Sales are expected to spread to non-OECD regions over time.
Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle indicative sales targets in BLUE Map scenario
0
10
20
30
40
20122010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f mod
els
EV models
PHEV models
Number of models offered through 2020
Vehicle sales must grow rapidly
Battery costs for PHEVs and EVs must drop rapidly toward USD 300/kWh in order to bring vehicle costs to competitive levels.
Battery costs through 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2010 2015 2020
Cos
t (U
SD/k
Wh)
Expected cost
Target cost
0
200
600
800
400
1 000
1 200
2005 2030 2050
Baseline BLUE
2030 2050
Car
bon
inte
nsity
of
elec
tric
ity (
gCO
2/kW
h) OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
China
Other Asia
India
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
World0
500
1 000
1 500
2 500
2 000
20152005
Base
line
BLU
E M
ap
Base
line
BLU
E M
ap
Base
line
BLU
E M
ap
2030 2050
Billi
on li
tres
gas
olin
e-eq
uiv
alen
t
Hydrogen
Electricity
CNG/LPG fuels
GTL and CTL
Biofuels
Conventional diesel
Conventional gasoline
Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, by fuel type
EVs achieve superiority to internal combustion engines in most respects, close the gap in driving range
Vehicle sales 70 millionGlobal market share 48%
Vehicle sales 100 millionGlobal market share 60%
Availability of higher power/energy-dense batteries should position policy makers to encourage remaining segments of light-duty vehicle markets to “go electric”, including greater use in larger, longer-distance vehicles
Ongoing recharging infrastructure and generation system expansion and refinement as needed; with ongoing increase in systems and capacity to handle fast charging
Ongoing RD&D as needed; focus on improving battery performance to maximise vehicle driving range
Batteries continue to improve; introduce a new generation of batteries that significantly outperform lithium-ion at a similar cost
Fast recharging options have achieved lower cost, with batteries well suited; support for widespread implementation of fast recharging as needed to ensure widespread availability
Completion of most recharging infrastructure in OECD and other major economies; expand globally as countries establish reliable, low-carbon electricity generation systems
Achieve widespread introduction of next generation of battery, full deployment of smart-grid systems and related technologies
Vehicles/batteries
Vehicle sales 7 millionGlobal market share 9%
Policy framework
Recharging/electricity infrastructure
RD&D
Common systems for vehicle-to-grid electricity sales, fast recharge and/or battery swapping well established
Vehicle sales 30 millionGlobal market share 30%
Vehicles become fully commercial, batteries reach all target specifications for cost and durability, including additional cycling tolerance in line with advanced batteries; full recycling systems in place
EVs should become commercially viable without significant subsidies; support should continue for widespread expansion of recharching infrastructure
Codes/standards
Continue RD&D on advanced battery designs moving towards demonstration and deployment as concepts mature; incorporate lessons learned from earlier experiences
Expansion of recharging infrastructure to more areas; greater use of fast recharging; fully established vehicle-to-grid electricity systems
Low- and medium-volume production, with design optimisations to 2015, then rapidly increase numbers of models offered and average production volumes; battery and other costs decline to target levels
Adequate incentives for EV/PHEV purchase and production in line with targets; co-ordination of recharging infrastructure development in key areas
Ensure plugs and charging systems are compatible across major regions, including basic “smart metering” systems for home and public recharging stations; develop protocols for fast recharging
Ensure vehicle/battery systems are reliable and safe; achieve near-term technical and cost targets, such as USD 300/kWh battery cost; develop advanced battery concepts and prototypes
Establish home recharging and begin major investments in street/office daytime commercial recharging, including rapid charging where appropriate
Refine codes and standards as needed; modify to accommodate innovations in batteries, smart grid systems, etc., but minimise the need for reinvestments in existing systems
Annual light-duty vehicle sales,BLUE Map scenario, 2000-2050
ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLE RoADmAP
Key findings
u Roadmap vision: industry and governments should attain a combined EV/PHEV sales share of at least 50% of LDV sales worldwide by 2050.
u In addition to contributing significant greenhouse-gas emissions reductions, the roadmap’s level of EV/PHEV sales will deliver substantial benefits in terms of improved oil security, reduced urban area pollution and noise.
u Policy support is critical, especially in two areas: ensuring vehicles become cost-competitive and providing adequate recharging infrastructure.
u The consumer comes first: wider use of EVs/PHEVs will require an improved understanding of consumer needs and desires, as well as consumer willingness to change vehicle purchase and travel behaviour.
u Performance measurement will be needed: the IEA roadmap contains a set of proposed metrics and targets for key attributes like driving range and battery requirements to ensure that EVs/PHEVs achieve their potential.
u RD&D priorities: research, development and demonstration must continue to reduce battery costs and ensure adequate materials supply. More research is also needed on smart grids and the vehicle-grid interface.
u International collaboration can accelerate deployment: industry and governments need to work together on research programmes, codes and standards, and alignment of vehicle and infrastructure roll-out.
© O
ECD
/IEA
, 201
0
EV/PHEV roadmap milestones
205020302010 20402020
International Energy Agencywww.iea.org/roadmaps
Pass
eng
er L
DV
Sal
es (
mill
ion
)
0
20
60
80
120
140
180
40
100
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20502045
� H2 hybrid fuel cell
� Electric
� CNG/LPG
� Plug-in hybrid diesel
� Diesel hybrid
� Conventional diesel
� Plug-in hybrid gasoline
� Hybrid (gasoline)
� Conventional gasoline
H2 hybrid fuel cell
ElectricCNG/LPG Plug-in hybrid diesel
Diesel hybrid
Conventional diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Hybrid (gasoline)Conventional gasoline