egon von greyerz
DESCRIPTION
The Gold Symposium Keynote Presentation 14 & 15 November 2011 Luna ParkTRANSCRIPT
DEUS EX MACHINA
Leo Lein
THREE KINDS OF MONEY
WHO IS THE MOST PRODUCTIVE?
THE DARK AGES BEGIN
100 YEARS OF PAPER
MONEY COLLAPSE
DEBT EXPLOSION
THE DESTRUCTION OF PAPER MONEY
Ounces of gold bought for $ 1,000
Investment Year Ounces Gold
Price
%
change
$1,000 1911 50 $ 20 -99%
$1,000 1971 28 $ 35 -98%
$1,000 1999 4 $ 250 -86%
$1,000 2002 3 $ 300 -83%
$1,000 2011 0.5
$1,800 -
A STEALTH MARKET
GOLD in AUD
GOLD IN AUD IS UP
4.5 X SINCE 1999
CAGR 13%
ASX vs GOLD in AUD
ASX vs GOLD
DOWN 70% SINCE
PEAK IN 2007
AUSTRALIAN HOUSE
PRICE COLLAPSE
1968-1979
Down 90%
2005-2010
Down 40%
BENEFITS SUPERVISOR
SLEEPING by LUCIAN FREUD
EU’s MILK COW SLEEPING
GOVERNMENT DEBT WILL NEVER BE REPAID
DEBTS THAT WILL NEVER
BE REPAID • Government, state, city, municipality debts
• Central bank debts
• Housing loans, personal loans, car loans
• Credit cards, student loans
• Commercial mortgages
• Toxic bank debt
• Derivatives
LOSE - LOSE
• Deflation or Inflation – Austerity or QE
• Deflation – collapse of the financial system
• No bank will survive with deflation
• Money printing – QE
• Currency weakens
• Creates hyperinflation
HYPERINFLATION
CONSEQUENCES • Government deficits explode
• All currencies fall
• Interest rates surge
• Unemployment surges
• Assets financed by credit bubble fall
• Exchange controls
• Financial system will fail
• Social structures break down
• Wars
GOLD STORAGE
Matterhorn Asset Management
• Wealth preservation experts, Zurich
• GoldSwitzerland
– Specialises in physical Gold and Silver bullion
– Stored outside the banking system
– Gold/Silver bars owned directly by investor
– Personal access to metals
– Ultimate form of wealth preservation
THIS IS NOT WEALTH
PROTECTION
• Gold / Silver ETFs in banking system
• Unallocated or allocated Gold/Silver in bank
• COMEX Gold
• Futures Gold
• Bank safe deposit box
• Storing gold at home
TOO LATE TO JUMP ON THE
GOLDWAGON?
GOLD TARGETS
WEIMAR GOLD
From DM 100 to DM 100 trillion
THE FINAL COLLAPSE
“THERE IS NO MEANS OF AVOIDING THE
FINAL COLLAPSE OF A BOOM BROUGHT
ABOUT BY CREDIT EXPANSION. THE
ALTERNATIVE IS ONLY WHETHER THE CRISIS
SHOULD COME SOONER AS A RESULT OF A
VOLUNTARY ABANDONMENT OF FURTHER
CREDIT EXPANSION, OR LATER AS A FINAL
OR TOTAL CATASTROPHE OF THE CURRENCY
SYSTEM INVOLVED”
Ludwig von Mises