Environmental Health Impacts of Global Climate Change Crispin Pierce, Ph.D.piercech@uwec.eduEnvironmental Public Health Program

OutlineGlobal Human Environmental ThreatsExperiment ChallengeDirect Human EffectsHeat deathsAdverse weather eventsCosts of extreme weather eventsRelationship Between Climate Change and Other Environmental Issues

Associated Climate Changes and SurprisesFlooding of Low-Lying AreasSpread of Waterborne DiseasesClimate Change and Food ProductionEffects on Plant and Animal CommunitiesPhenologyGreening of the NorthCoral BleachingSpecies ExtinctionBenefits of Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations

Global Human Environmental ThreatsOverpopulationGlobal Climate ChangeLoss of Biodiversity

Experimental ChallengeA reporter for the Eau Claire Leader-Telegram contacts you for information on an article concerning global warming. She asks you the question, If air and sea temperatures rise, will the melting of icebergs lead to sea level increases? What is your response.Use the materials in front of you (ice cubes, a graduated cylinder, and a water faucet), how would you test your answer?

Direct Human EffectsHotter, Drier Summers and Warmer, Wetter WintersIncreased Adverse Weather EventsProperty and Crop Losses

Quick QuizAbout how many people in Europe died during the heat wave of 2003?3503,50035,000

Heat is the primary cause of weather-related deaths.

Adverse Weather EventsIncreased Sea Surface Temperatures and Greater Hurricane Intensity (Science 16 September 2005:Vol. 309. no. 5742, pp. 1844 - 1846)Net Hurricane Power Dissipation Highly Correlated with Tropical Sea Surface Temperature (Nature advance online publication; published online 31 July 2005 | doi: 10.1038/nature03906)

Costs of Extreme Weather Events

Relationship Between Climate Change and Other Environmental IssuesThe complex effects of warming of our atmosphere, water, and soil are very difficult to measure and predict.Accumulation of evidence from many fields, such as chemistry, biology, geology, and environmental health is essential.The accumulated evidence provides a clearer and clearer picture of whats going on.

Associated Climate ChangesGlobal sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr; in 100 years a rise in sea level between 3.5 and 34.6 in. (9-88 cm) is expectedDuration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. HemisphereArctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%

Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regionsGrowing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. HemisphereRetreat of continental glaciers on all continentsSnow cover decreased by 10% (reduced solar reflection)

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

Climate SurprisesSlowing of the ocean thermohaline circulation

Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Flooding of Low-Lying Coastal Areas Source: U.S. National Assessment, 2000.

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea levelKennedy SpaceCenterMiamiImpact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areasSource:Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Who Will be First Affected?AOSIS is a coalition of small island and low-lying coastal countries, including Africa, Caribbean, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, Pacific, South China SeaThese countries share risk factors for warming-induced disasters:Small physical sizeSurrounded by large expanses of oceanRelative isolationLimited natural resourcesGrowing populationsExposure to damaging natural disastersLow economic diversificationLimited funds, human resources, skills

Rising sea levels will causeDisplacement of coastal communitiesDisturbance of agricultural activityCoastal erosion, beach loss, decline in tourismIntrusion of sea water into freshwater aquifers

Other risks faced by AOSISMore frequent droughts and floods Water supply contaminationThe experience of AOSIS countries is a microcosm of the global picture

Spread of Waterborne DiseasesMalariaDengue FeverCholeraTyphoid feverHantavirusDiptheriaLyme Disease Evidence: the Caribbean region has experienced a marked increase in the incidence of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in the past decade (Caribbean Epidemiology Centre - CAREC).

Climate Change and FoodThe growth of crops depends on many factors, including temperature, precipitation, soil fertility, and surrounding land uses.Extreme weather events (drought, hurricanes, floods, etc.) are very damaging to crops. The effects of more gradual affects (e.g., average temperature increase) are difficult to predict.Developing countries will be much harder hit than developed countries, due to limited agricultural flexibility.

Effects on Plant and Animal CommunitiesThe effects are difficult to measure, but potentially dramatic. Many species inhabit precisely bounded ecological niches, and so small changes in climate can cause disruptions in habitat or food availability. In the past, mobile animals could respond to these pressures by moving from one place to another. Land development, however, has constrained and fragmented ranges and travel routes, making migration much more difficult. Loss of key predator or prey species affects the life cycles of other organisms in the food chain.

Phenology (Timing of Natural Events)Evidence of earlier leafing and flowering.http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/biosphere/data1.html

Greening of the NorthMore vegetative growth in the last 20 years.

Many scientists predict greater desertification.Ranga B. Myneni, Department of Geography, Boston University

Coral BleachingIncreased sea temperatures Increased CO2 concentrations:

http://www.awi-bremerhaven.de/Carbon/calcif.html

Species ExtinctionExtinction of the golden toad:Over the past 30 years, the dry season in the Costa Ricas cloud forest has become warmer and drier.20 out of 50 species of frogs and toads have disappeared from a 30-square-kilometer study areaToucans and other bird species have shifted their range to higher altitudes. Frog extinction in the Central and South American tropics

Biological ShiftsShifts in the ranges of 35 species of non-migratory butterflies.Decline in body weight of polar bears, resulting from early melting of sea ice and lowered food availability.Changes in the abundance of winter songbirds in four Great Plains statesShifts in Californias tidepools speciesReduction of phytoplankton growth in the Ross Sea that could disrupt the Antarctic food chain

Stabilizing CO2 Atmospheric LevelsEfficient TransportationEnergy ConservationSustainable Energy SourcesSustainable Land UsePopulation Stabilization

ReferencesExploratorium.eduEugene S. Takle, Iowa State UniversityJoan L. Aron, Vulnerability Associated with Climate Variability and Climate Change in Central America and the CaribbeanUnion of Concerned ScientistsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Extra SlidesScientists predict that continued global warming on the order of 2.5-10.4F over the next 100 years (as projected in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report) is likely to result in:

severe stress on many forests, wetlands, alpine regions, and other natural ecosystems greater threats to human health as mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects and rodents spread diseases over larger geographical regions disruption of agriculture in some parts of the world due to increased temperature, water stress, and sea-level rise in low-lying areas such as Bangladesh or the Mississippi River delta.