Ecosystem BasedModeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW

Philip Gibbs Karen Astles

The Program & Linkages• DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella

program’

• Comprehensive Coastal Assessment

• Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2)

• Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project)

• Initial project in Clarence Estuary

• CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme

Objectives• Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use

management of coastal environments

• Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities

• Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’

Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling

Data

Management Objectives

Management strategy/ scenarios

Presentation of outputs to decision makers

Policy formation

Management responses

Monitoring/adaptive

management

Building virtual ecosystem (Operating

model)

AtlantisBiogeochemical

model

Program Outline

Human activities

impacts

Ecosystem

Modelling&

Monitoring

Management

Interface Between

Management Science

Stakeholders

Climate Change

• National Adaptation Framework

• Coastal Vulnerability Assessment

• Increasing Temperature

• Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO

• Sea level rise

• Increasing ocean acidity

Likely Impacts

• Ocean current changes

• Storm surges

• Freshwater flow to estuaries

• Habitat change

• Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates

• Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests

• Socio economic effects

Tools• Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled

physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’

– Physical box model in 3 dimensions

– Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O2 CO2, living, detritus)

– Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins)

– Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency

• Computational limit

“What if” Scenarios• Timeframe 1950 to 2030

• Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch

• Climate change

• Land-use

• Increasing population and urbanisation

• Socio economic change

The Future

• Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component

• Explicit representation of Marine Parks

• Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs

• Coupling of estuary and shelf models

• Documentation of the “what if” outputs

Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible?

Plants and Animals

People (social)

Economics

Geophysical

environment

PoliticsPolitics

ThankThank YouYou