ECONOMIC AND SECTOR WORK - vm- and sector work may 2012 report number: 67395-glb carbon sequestration in agricultural soils. carbon sequestration in agricultural soils ... figure e3

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  • E C O N O M I C A N D S E C T O R W O R K

    M AY 2 0 1 2

    REPORT NUMBER: 67395-GLB

    CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN AGRICULTURAL SOILS

  • CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN AGRICULTURAL SOILS

    R E P O RT N O . 6 7 3 9 5 - G L B

    AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

    ARD

    E C O N O M I C A N D S E C T O R W O R K

  • 2012 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/International Development Association or The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org

    This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.

    The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

    Rights and Permissions

    The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.

    Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.

    Cover Photos: Scott Wallace, Tran Thi Hoa, Curt Carnemark, Ami Vitale, and Ray Witlin.

  • CONTENTS

    ECONOMIC AND SECTOR WORK

    II I

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

    List of Photos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi

    List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

    List of Boxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii

    Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix

    Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi

    Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii

    Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv

    Chapter 1: Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1: Food Security Under a Changing Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    1.2: Carbon Benefi ts Through Climate-Smart Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    1.3: Objectives and Scope of the Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

    Chapter 2: Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics and Assessment Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.1: Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    2.2: Carbon Assessment for Land Management Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

    2.3: Techniques of Soil Carbon Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

    2.4: Carbon Assessment in The World Banks Sustainable Land Management Portfolio. . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

    Chapter 3: Meta-Analyses of Soil Carbon Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193.1: Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

    3.2: Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

    3.3: Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

    Chapter 4: Ecosystem Simulation Modeling of Soil Carbon Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434.1: Model Description. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

    4.2: Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

    Chapter 5: Economics of Soil Carbon Sequestration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515.1: Marginal Abatement Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

    5.2: Trade-Offs in Soil Carbon Sequestration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

    5.3: Implications of the Trade-Offs in Land-Use Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

    5.4: Sustainable Land Management Adoption Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

    5.5: Policy Options for Soil Carbon Sequestration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

  • CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN AGRICULTURAL SOILS

    Appendix A: The Farming Practice Effect, Number of Estimates, and Features in Land Management Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

    Appendix B: General Scenario Assumptions and Application for World Regions . . . . . . . . . . 67B.1: Baseline Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

    B.2: Global Mitigation Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

    B.3: Application to World Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

    B.4: Detailed Modeling for Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

    Appendix C: Global Crop Yields (T ha1 yr1) Grouped into 25th, 50th, and 75th Percentile Bins Corresponding to Low, Medium, and High . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

    Appendix D: Uncertainty Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

    Appendix E: Assumptions for Deriving the Applicable Mitigation Area for the Land Management Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

    E.1: Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

    CONTENTSIV

  • ECONOMIC AND SECTOR WORK

    LIST OF FIGURES

    Figure E1: Abatement Rates of the Land Management Practices (t CO2e Per Hectare Per Year) . . . . . . . . . .xxii

    Figure E2: Trade-Offs Between Profi tability and Carbon Sequestration of Sustainable Land Management Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxv

    Figure E3: Relationship Between Private Benefi ts and Public Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxvi

    Figure 1.1: Contribution of Different Sectors to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

    Figure 1.2: Proportion of Agricultural Land Derived from Different Land Covers in the Tropics, 19802000 . . . . .2

    Figure 2.1: Carbon Stocks in Biomass and Soils. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

    Figure 2.2: Global Soil Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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