eavesdropping study - 2010 fifa world cup sa - · pdf fileconducted an analysis of online...

2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™

Changes in Public Perception – Mar’09 to Mar’10

May 2010

| Copyright © 2010 Grail Research, a division of Integreon May 2010 2

Refreshed online media analysis and compared results to 2009 — How have global perceptions of South Africa changed over the last year as the event draws near?

Summarized actions taken by South Africa to address key concerns and prepare to host the historic event

Online Media Refresh, Mar 2010 Mobile Survey, Aug 2010

Conducted an analysis of online media coverage around the global perceptions of South Africa hosting the 2010 World Cup

Identified key issues facing the country and developed case examples of how other countries managed public perception surrounding similar global events

Mobile survey to be conducted in South Africa, Brazil, Germany, China, the US, and the UK pre/post the 2010 World Cup • Analyze the impact of the event on

South Africa and its performance as the host nation (how well they address the challenges)

Coming Soon

Grail Research’s Coverage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup

Note: Link to report - Online Media Analysis, Mar 2009

Online Media Analysis, Mar 2009

http://www.grailresearch.com/pdf/ContenPodsPdf/Online_Media_Analysis_of_the_2010_FIFA_World_Cup.pdf�


2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Executive Summary

South Africa seems to have made significant progress in turning around public perceptions on its ability to host the 2010 FIFA World Cup. This is a unique opportunity for the country. We wish South Africa the best of luck and will be

back with more analysis in August after the event

The 2010 FIFA World Cup is a historic event for South Africa and the African continent. It is the first event of its kind to be hosted by an African nation South Africa invested more than $3.7 Bn to construct and renovate stadiums, upgrade infrastructure, and

create a safe environment for the games and the estimated 450,000 spectators

Grail Research conducted an analysis of global online media sources in March 2009 to understand the perception of South Africa as the 2010 FIFA World Cup host nation • Key issues observed were: Security Concerns, Infrastructure Readiness and Impact on Tourism

Through a ‘refresh’ of the online media analysis in March 2010, we observed significant improvement in public perception. This may be attributed to actions taken by the country in preparation for the event • South Africa has taken a number of steps to strengthen security and has received international acclaim

for the measures put in place for the event • 10 stadiums for the 2010 World Cup matches are complete (or close to completion); South Africa has

expanded and upgraded its airport capacity and road-transport infrastructure to accommodate the influx of tourists

• The International Marketing Council of South Africa and South Africa Tourism have launched multiple campaigns to promote the 2010 FIFA World Cup along with tourism for the region

The FIFA Confederations Cup in June 2009, a preliminary event, was a success and South Africa demonstrated to the world that it is ready for the World Cup


Table of Contents

Online Media Analysis – the Approach

Analysis of Key Issues Related to the 2010 World Cup

Steps Taken by South Africa to Address the Key Issues


We have conducted several online media studies across sectors, in the past: 1. Analysis of user/expert opinion on a new web browser

within the first week of launch 2. Analysis of user/expert opinion of a new mobile product to

gauge its reception and success in the market 3. Similar studies in other research areas including:

healthcare, beverages, automobiles and technology

Provides organizations with: 1. Immediate and real-time public reactions to an event/issue

at a global level 2. Insight into the most significant areas of public concern

regarding an event/issue 3. Longitudinal view of the change in perception over time

1. Gain insight into public perception about an event/issue 2. Deepen the understanding of public perception on the basis

of regions or themes

Listen and learn through online media to gain insight into public perception about an issue and track it longitudinally over time

What can be learned by analyzing online media?

ONLINE COMMUNITIES

PRODUCT REVIEWS

BLOGS FORUMS

EDUCATION SOCIAL NETWORKING


Our Approach to Analyzing Online Media

Conducted research across blogs and other online media sources related to the 2010 FIFA World Cup — Reviewed ~4,000 potentially relevant articles to select and analyze about 200

Focused analysis on English-based sources

Considered articles between March 2009 – March 2010 for the ‘refresh’ (the March 2009 analysis considered articles between January 2008 – February 2009)

Objective: Analyze online media to evaluate public perception of South Africa as the 2010 FIFA World Cup hosting nation

Compare and Analyze Search Categorize

Categorized comments, opinions and reviews into different themes

Iterated to refine these themes into final categories, namely — security concerns, infrastructure readiness, impact on tourism and political agitation risk

Compared data within each category between the March 2009 study and the current study for interesting shifts and insights

Identified actions taken by South Africa that may have had an impact on the global perception

Number of unique URLs on the Web

# of sources visited and reviewed

# of sources used for final analysis

~2MM**

~4,000

200

~1 Tr*

# of sources discussing World Cup 2010

Note: *Data as of July 2008 from Google’s official blog; **Number estimated using Google search engine


Table of Contents





Global perception of South Africa hosting the 2010 World Cup has improved over the last year. People are more confident about security arrangements and infrastructure readiness — the two biggest issues observed in the March 2009 study

Mar ‘10 Mar ‘09

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

Impact on Tourism 67% -33%

Infrastructure Readiness

Security Concerns -57%

-53%

43%

Overall

47%

-52% 48%

Total # of Opinions (121)

-23%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%


-56% 44%

-70%

-58%

77%

42%

30%

Positive Opinions Negative Opinions

Analysis of Key Issues Summary

Source: Grail Research Analysis of Various Blogs, Forums and Articles


Mar ‘09 (# 46)

Mar ‘10 (# 69)

South Africa has taken several measures to boost security during the World Cup. They will have in place a dedicated police force of 41,000 officers, 40 helicopters for aerial surveillance, special riot police teams and a 24x7 multi-lingual hotline

“Interpol, the global police organization, has given its assurance that the strictest security measures are in place for the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa” – MediaClubSouthAfrica.com

South Africa successfully hosted the 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup and other sporting events (the 2009 Indian Premier League) without any security lapses or issues

Analysis of Key Issues Security Concerns


Actions Taken by South Africa to Address Security Concerns

Crime will increase during WC

SA has serious security concerns

Current security situation is not very bad

Increased security will ensure safety

-75%

-60%

-45%

-30%

-15%

0%

15%

30%

45%

-13%

-43%

29%

15%

-11%

-58%

20%

11%

Pros

C

ons

“There is no need for anyone to be afraid of coming to South Africa to watch or play in the World Cup. I believe it will be a fantastic experience” (January 2010)

“Years of security planning for the World Cup in South Africa mean there is little chance of a surprise attack similar to the one on Togo's soccer team at the African championship in Angola” (January 2010)

“Fans will be vulnerable no matter how much the South Africans beef up their security and even one life lost will spell disaster for the World Cup” (January 2010)

“The biggest problems that fans will face in South Africa are violent crime from the local population, theft, corruption…just to name a few” (November 2009)

% o

f Opi

nion

s

Time of Analysis

# of Opinions What are people saying?

Perception of security in South Africa has witnessed a shift over the last year, indicating that measures taken by the country are having a positive impact


-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

9%

-22%

-33%

28%

17%

-15%

-38%

38%

South Africa initiated several programs to improve its infrastructure and provide world class facilities to visitors and spectators of the 2010 World Cup • Five new stadiums have been constructed or are at an advanced stage of completion by the end of 2009 • Public transportation systems have been added and/or improved. An example is the Rea Vaya bus rapid

transit system in Johannesburg • The country also invested in improving its air-transport infrastructure — airports in Cape Town and other

cities have been refurbished or expanded

Analysis of Key Issues Infrastructure Readiness


Actions Taken by South Africa for Infrastructure Readiness

Pros

C

ons %

of O

pini

ons “I have been to South Africa and its an amazing country. Its infrastructure is first world; the roads compare to those found

in major European nations, airports are even better than most European ones, underground tunnels are under construction, amazing tourist facilities and even their own resort that rivals Las Vegas (Sun City)” (January 2010)

“Major concern for a lot of people has been if the stadiums will be ready by the time the world cup starts in June next year. At the moment, luckily, it looks like they don’t need to worry anymore” (September 2009)

“The decision to put the World Cup in Africa was then, and still is a ridiculous gamble! The infrastructure, transportation and pitches in SA are today inadequate to hold the tournament” (November 2009)

“…the anticipated roll-out of an ambitious transport infrastructure intended to facilitate the effective flow of traffic in the major cities during 2010 appears, at this stage, that it will at best have a 'barely ready' status by June next year” (November 2009)

Completion of infrastructural plans for WC is doubtful

Existing infrastructure in SA is very poor

Infrastructural progress is as per schedule/satisfactory

New infrastructure will leave a legacy for SA after WC

Mar ‘09 (# 36)

Mar ‘10 (# 34)

Time of Analysis

# of Opinions What are people saying?

There has been some improvement in perception of ‘infrastructure readiness' in South Africa to host the 2010 World Cup, but opinions continue to be mixed


-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

-11% -5%

-17%

56%

11%

-8%

-15%

39%

23%

15%

South Africa launched aggressive marketing campaigns covering all media —TV, print, web, and outdoor — to promote tourism in the country around the 2010 World Cup • They also launched a new campaign that is broader than the World Cup — ‘South Africa, It’s Possible’ —

showcasing a range of experiences that visitors can have on a vacation to South Africa The country is also offering targeted promotions such as free trips to South Africa for tourists to the country,

and has relaxed requirements for obtaining a visa South Africa is providing free visas (on entry) to football fans who have tickets to the 2010 FIFA World Cup, in

order to alleviate after-effects of the financial crisis of 2008–2009

Analysis of Key Issues Impact on Tourism


% o

f Opi

nion

s

“Next year’s football World Cup being held in venues across South Africa is anticipated to boost tourism to neighboring African nations, including Zimbabwe which is eager to regenerate its tourism industry” (February 2010)

“As South Africa gears itself up for the upcoming World Cup in June, the country has seen a sharp increase in businesses holding conferences in the area. The World Cup in June and July is expected to attract football fans from all over the world as they bid to watch their country in action” (February 2010)

“… the BBC's Jonah Fisher, in Johannesburg, says FIFA are clearly disappointed at the number of people planning to travel to the tournament” (January 2010)

“Personally, I don't know anybody who is going and the general mood is definitely not positive”…“Most people change their plans about visiting SA when they are reminded of the WC i.e., they go to Namibia or change their dates” (June 2009)

What are people saying?

Con

s Pr

os

Global economic crisis will reduce # of WC tourists

Tourism industry will experience high growth due to WC

Global economic crisis will not impact # of WC tourists

Other than WC, SA has a lot to offer to tourists

Tourism is not shaping up well

SA should undertake more promotional activities Increase in tourism due to WC is not sustainable

Security concern may affect tourism

Mar ‘09 (# 13)

Mar ‘10 (# 18)

Time of Analysis

# of Opinions

Actions Taken by South Africa to Promote Tourism

South Africa has taken several measures to promote tourism and maximize the impact of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. However, concerns persist that the global financial crisis will curb ‘tourism and travel’ to the country


Analysis of Key Issues Perceptions in South Africa vs. Rest of the World, Mar ‘10


Comparison of Public Perceptions – Mar ‘10

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

60% -40%

64% -36%

55% -45%

Total # of Opinions (44) Positive Opinions Negative Opinions

South Africa Rest of the World

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

-61%


Infrastructure Readiness 35%

Impact on Tourism 75% -25%

Security Concerns 39%

-65%

South Africans are more optimistic about their nation’s ability to address security concerns and prepare for the 2010 World Cup; however, they are less optimistic about the impact on tourism, relative to people from other nations


Analysis of Key Issues Change in Perceptions in South Africa – Mar ‘09 vs. Mar ‘10


-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%


-40%


55% -45%

-36% 64%

Security Concerns

60% Impact on Tourism -22%

-20%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%


78%

80%

-64% 36%

Analysis of Change in Perceptions in South Africa

Mar ‘09 Mar ‘10

Positive Opinions Negative Opinions

Interestingly, as the 2010 World Cup draws near, South Africans seem to be less optimistic about their nation’s readiness to host the event and its impact on tourism in the country


Analysis of Key Issues Change in Perceptions in Rest of the World – Mar ‘09 vs. Mar ‘10


Analysis of Change in Perceptions in the Rest of the World

Mar ‘09 Mar ‘10

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

Impact on Tourism 75%

35% -65%

-25%

Security Concerns 39%


-61%


19%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

-25%

28%

75%

-81%

-72%

Total # of Opinions (57) Positive Opinions Negative Opinions

Perception of people in other countries regarding South Africa’s readiness to host the event seems to have improved over last year, potentially due to the country’s advertising and marketing campaigns


Table of Contents





The government has deployed a dedicated force of 41,000 officers for the World Cup. It is spending ZAR 665 MM (~ USD 80 MM) to upgrade and procure security equipment such as an unmanned surveillance aircraft, helicopters and crowd-control equipment A 24x7 multi-lingual helpline has been set up to assist visitors with any security or health emergency issues during the event South Africa plans to closely work with its neighbors and deploy its National Defense Force to ensure border security during the event President Zuma of South Africa indicated that "Additional funds of more than ZAR 1 Bn have been allocated for safety and security matters”

while he was addressing media on security issues for the event The security plan developed by South Africa for the 2010 FIFA World Cup has been approved by experts from the 32 participating nations and

188 Interpol member countries According to a security expert from Germany's Parliament, South Africa has taken security precautions of the highest standard for the 2010

FIFA World Cup

Source: Grail Research Analysis; Brand South Africa; Official Website for 2010 FIFA World Cup; IOL; Times Live; Mail and Guardian Online; SouthAfrica.info

South Africa has taken a number of steps to strengthen security and has received international acclaim for the measures that have been put in place for the 2010 World Cup

Steps Taken to Address Key Issues Security Concerns

Security Measures


South Africa’s Department of Transport developed a 2010 Transport Action Plan that included a number of national road projects: • The N1 and N2 Toll Highway in the Western Cape • The Gauteng Freeway Improvement Scheme that will also include

intelligent transport systems for traffic management Transportation projects are also being implemented at the city level:

• Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system — the Rea Vaya (“We are going”) project — in Johannesburg is in its final phase

• Two other BRT systems from Tshwane to Pretoria and Nelson Mandela Bay to Port Elizabeth are in progress

"We have emphasized that the FIFA World Cup is not only about sport, it's also about transport” – Minister of Transport, South Africa

Source: Grail Research Analysis; Brand South Africa; SA 2010; IOL; South Africa Tourism; China.org; iAfrica; Reavaya website (for picture)

The Airport Company South Africa (ACSA), has allocated ZAR 19.5 Bn (~ USD 2.3 Bn) to expand airport infrastructure. Some projects include: • The OR Tambo International Airport was revamped and extended to

include a new terminal, which opened in April 2010 • The Cape Town International Airport and Durban International

Airport have been upgraded • A new international airport — King Shaka International Airport — in

Durban is expected to begin operations in May 2010 • Domestic airports in Bloemfontein, East London, Upington, and

Kimberley are being upgraded to accommodate larger traffic According to the ACSA, work at all the airports was close to 90%

complete in March 2010


Road Transport Air Transport

South Africa has expanded and upgraded its airport capacity and road-transport infrastructure to cater to the influx of tourists for the 2010 FIFA World Cup

Steps Taken to Address Key Issues Infrastructure Readiness – Transportation


Source: Grail Research Analysis; Brand South Africa; SA 2010; IOL; South Africa Tourism; China.org; iAfrica

The government conducted a national audit in December 2009 to ensure accommodation availability for visitors during the World Cup • According to the survey, there are over 200,000 rooms available for

the event, enough for the expected visitors (~450,000) • An online booking portal, www.Rooms4U.travel, using data from this

audit, has been created as a joint initiative between tourism and hospitality organizations

In March 2010, the National Department of Tourism commissioned a study to check and ensure fair pricing of hotel rooms in the country • The study showed that 74% of all hotels in the country will be

charging a premium less than 50% above their highest rate for 2010, and half of all establishments will not be charging a premium at all

South Africa revamped five existing stadiums for the World Cup: • Soccer City Stadium (Johannesburg), Ellis Park Stadium

(Johannesburg), Loftus Versfeld Stadium (Pretoria), Royal Bafokeng Sports Palace (Rustenburg), and Free State Stadium (Bloemfontein)

It also built five new stadiums with a combined capacity of ~276,000: • Moses Mabhida Stadium (Durban), Cape Town Stadium (Cape

Town), Mbombela Stadium (Nelspruit), Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane), and Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium (Port Elizabeth)

Based on FIFA inspection in March 2010, stadiums are expected to be ready well in advance of the event. Johannesburg’s Soccer City Stadium (venue for opening and closing games) is already complete


Accommodation Stadiums

The stadiums for the 2010 World Cup matches are complete (or close to completion); and lodging capacity in the country is expected to be sufficient to meet the needs of travelers at the time of the event

Steps Taken to Address Key Issues Infrastructure Readiness – Stadiums and Accommodation

http://www.rooms4u.travel/�


South Africa established the International Marketing Council (IMC) of South Africa in 2002 to help create a positive and compelling brand image of the country. IMC has launched various campaigns to improve the South African brand, including: • Targeted campaigns in cities such as London by branding traditional British taxis with ‘South Africa Alive with Possibility’ logos • Media programs in which the IMC hosted editors and journalists from the UK, India, and the US, who then published multiple articles on

South Africa on their return • Launch of new web portals, Southafrica.info and MediaClubSouthAfrica.com, to help brand the country and share the country’s success.

These portals are also available in different languages, on mobile platforms and social networking sites such as Facebook • The ‘National Communication Partnership’ program initiated by the IMC to ensure a coordinated marketing and communication campaign in

the build-up to 2010, in order to maximize tourism and foreign investment opportunities To promote the event and alleviate the effect of the financial slowdown, South Africa is providing free visas (on entry) to football fans who have

tickets to the 2010 FIFA World Cup IMC’s marketing and promotion expenditure was USD 13 MM in 2009, an increase of 30% from their 2008 expenses

Source: Grail Research Analysis; The International Marketing Council of South Africa; South African Tourism; SouthAfrica.info; MediaClubSouthAfrica.com

The International Marketing Council of South Africa and South Africa Tourism have launched a number of campaigns to promote the 2010 FIFA World Cup along with tourism in the region

Branding South Africa

Steps Taken to Address Key Issues Promoting South Africa


The Results So Far South Africa’s Success in Hosting Other Sporting Events in 2010

Source: Grail Research Analysis

South Africa hosted the Confederation Cup in June 2009. The total attendance was 584,894 spectators, with an average of 36,556 spectators each day. This was higher than that witnessed at previous tournaments in S. Korea, Japan and France

“It was very important to have the FIFA Confederations Cup as it gave us the opportunity to test the systems and how things should work. We have learnt so much from the tournament and we can say without hesitation that the FIFA Confederations Cup was a success” – Onke Mjo, Volunteer Programme Manager, 2010 FIFA World Cup Organizing Committee, South Africa

“South Africa enjoyed a record attendance of 79% across all of its FIFA Confederation Cup matches – making ours the best Confeds Cup ever. This leads us to believe that South Africa may even be able to host the best FIFA World Cup ever” – Adam Brown, Senior Operation Manager for Match Event Services

South Africa successfully hosted the Indian Premier League (IPL) in April–May 2009 The event was very successful, considering that it was shifted to South Africa at a very short notice (3 weeks before the

schedule) because of security concerns in India (with the national elections scheduled at the same time and the Mumbai terrorist attacks a few months prior to the event)

South Africa was chosen over the UK to host the IPL due to better arrangements and favorable conditions for the event

The ICC Champions Trophy, September–October 2009, was another success, which was organized efficiently by the Cricket South Africa (CSA) in coordination with the South African Government

“The CSA Board’s decision to accept the financial model from the ICC to host the ICC Champions Trophy means that South Africa has yet another jewel in its crown of hosting a major international sports event….We in recent times have successfully staged two International Cricket Council (ICC) World Cups, for men and women; the inaugural ICC Twenty20 Championship, the 2009 Indian Premier League (IPL), and the ICC Champions Trophy” – Gerald Majola, CEO, Cricket South Africa

In 2009, South Africa successfully hosted three major sporting events: the FIFA Confederations Cup, the Indian Premier League, and the ICC Champions Trophy

FIFA Confederation

Cup South Africa 2009

DLF Indian Premier League

2009

ICC Champions Trophy 2009

Having successfully hosted these major sporting events in 2009, South Africa has proven to the world that they are ready for the 2010 FIFA World Cup


For More Information Contact:

Grail Research ([email protected])

Copyright © 2010 by Grail Research, a division of Integreon

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise — without the permission of Grail Research, a division of Integreon

eavesdropping study - 2010 fifa world cup sa - · pdf fileconducted an analysis of online...

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