east greenwich town council · 2019-12-12 · east greenwich town council joint meeting with east...
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East Greenwich Town CouncilJoint Meeting with East Greenwich School CommitteeMonday, December 16, 2019 at 7:00 PMSwift Community Center, 121 Peirce Street, East Greenwich, RI 02818
AgendaThe East Greenwich Town Council will meet on Monday, December 16, 2019 at 7:00 PM, in the SwiftCommunity Center, 121 Peirce Street, East Greenwich, RI 02818.
(Any matter listed on this agenda is subject to discussion and a vote by the Town Council.) 1. Call to Order and Pledge of Allegiance to the American Flag 2. Acknowledgements 2.a Commendation for Dr. Victor Mercurio, Superintendent of East Greenwich Public
Schools, for 10 years of dedicated service. 3. New Business:
(Any items that have not been previously discussed or acted upon.)
3.a Milone and MacBroom Enrollment & Demographic Presentation 2019.12.16 East_Greenwich_Enrollment_Projections_12-2019.pdf 3.b Statutory pre-budget consultation between East Greenwich School Committee and East
Greenwich Town Council for review of revenue and expenditure projections anddiscussion on issues affecting preparation of the school budget per RIGL 16-2-21.2 (d)
RIDE Projected Education Aid for FY2021FY 2020-2022 Fiscal Impact Statement NEARI/NEA Teacher's UnionCapital Improvement Plans, Capital Reserve Structure and RIDE Reimbursement
2019.12.16 FY-21-State-Requested-Aid-11-15-19.pdf 2019.12.16 Fiscal Impact Statement 2020-2022.pdf 4. Public Comments:
(This is an additional opportunity for members of the audience to provide public comment.Comments shall be limited to five (5) minutes per person with a maximum of thirty (30) minutesfor all items. Speakers may not yield their time to others.)
5. Adjournment
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This agenda was posted on December 12, 2019 in accordance with RIGL 42-46-6. Individuals requestinginterpreter services for the hearing impaired must notify the Town Clerk's office at (401) 886-8604 via RI Relay#711 (800-745-5555 TY) or in writing, at least seventy-two (72) hours in advance of the hearing date.
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East Greenwich Public Schools
School Enrollment and Demographic Study
December 2019
3
Introduction
Comprehensive Demographic and Housing Analysis Enrollment Trends Enrollment Projections
2
4
East Greenwich Public SchoolsEast Greenwich Total Population Change
East Greenwich’s total population decreased by
less than 1% between 2010 and 2017
2017: 13,0942010: 13,187
5
Age Composition
East Greenwich is aging due to large Baby Boomer age groups (age 55 to 69) However, estimated increase in children between 5-14 years old Low population of young working age
4
Source: ACS 2006-2010, ACS 2013-2017: B01001
6
Births Sustained high birth
rates from 2013 to 2016 (correspond to incoming 2018-19 to 2021-22 K cohorts
However, significant drop off in 2017 and 2018
Several peaks and valleys in long-term trend, as births vary from year to year, rarely exceeding a difference greater than 25 births between years until 2017
5
Source: RIDPH2017, 2018 births are preliminary
124
95
121 119110 113
98106
115100
112
92 97
11699
121 119 118 117
81 83
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
East Greenwich Births: 1998 to 2018
7
Unemployment Rates
East Greenwich had an historic low 3.5% unemployment rate in 2018, the lowest rate going back to 1996
Historically, the local unemployment rate is slightly below Rhode Island statewide rates
6
Source: RI Department of Labor and Training, Labor Market Information
8
Birth Projections
7
Could not identify a reliable regression model tied to unemployment or housing sales to project births over the next five years due to the unusually low estimated births of 2017 and 2018
Instead, projecting based on linear, exponential and moving average trends
Source: RIDPH, MMI Birth Projections
95
99
112
9297
116
99
121
119
118 117
81 83
100
50
75
100
125
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Axis Title
East Greenwich Actual and Projected Births: 2008 to 2024
Low Medium High Actual
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Household Composition
About 34% of East Greenwich households include children
Of family households with children, more than 70% have children between the ages of 6 and 17 only
42% of all households have one or more people age 60 and over
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Household Type Estimate% of Total
Households
Total Households 5,112 100.0% Average Household Size With own children under 18 years 1,728 33.8% Married Couple Families 2,894 56.6% Average Household Size With own children under 18 years 1,409 27.6% Under 6 years 179 3.5% Under 6 year and 6-17 223 4.4% 6-17 only 1,007 19.7% Female Householder, No Husband 292 5.7% Average Household Size With own children under 18 years 169 3.3% Under 6 years 45 0.9% Under 6 years and 6-17 21 0.4% 6-17 only 103 2.0% Nonfamily Households 1,645 32.2% Average Household Size Householder Living Along 1,552 30.4%Source: ACS 2013-2017 5 Year Dataset: S1101, B11016
2017 Households by Type
2.55
3.26
3.32
1.0610
Demographics Summary
Relatively stable total population - however, aging demographic profile Increase in elementary age population – however significant decline in birth
rate over last two years Attractive community for families with children to move into
Elevated birth period of 2013-16 should contribute to larger student cohorts entering the District for the next two years
9
11
10
East Greenwich Total Housing Units
East Greenwich’s total housing units decreased by less than 1% between 2010
and 2017.
Total Housing Units 2017: 5,407Total Housing Units 2010: 5,414
12
East Greenwich Public SchoolsEast Greenwich Renter Population
East Greenwich’s renter occupied housing
population grew by 7%between 2010 and 2017, to
an estimated 22.7%
Total Renter Occupied Units 2017: 1,161
Total Renter Occupied Units 2010: 1,091
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Occupied Housing Units Homeowners age 65 or above occupy
about 27% of the total owner-occupied housing in 2017, an estimated 4% increase from 2010
48% of all owner-occupied units are in Census Tract 209.03, the western half of East Greenwich
Renters age 65 or above occupy about 33% of the total renter occupied housing in 2017, an estimated 1% increase from 2010
80% of all rental units are in Census Tract 209.01, closest to downtown
12
14
Home Sales
Total home sales increasing over last 3 years though estimated to level off in 2019 (based on 2019 estimate)
Housing market sales rate has recovered from recession lows of 2008 - 2011
13
238223217215
192163
191166
116142134138
177162
181
245222
202223
39472434
12242519182117183843
2148
345261
277270241249
204187
216185
134163151156
215205202
293
256254284
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2019est.
201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001
East Greenwich Home Sales: 2000 to 2019
Single Family Condo TotalSource: The Warren Group - Town Statistics2019 figures are estimated based on Jan-Aug sales data
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Home Sales
14
Housing prices have recovered about 90% of peak values from mid-2000s, encouraging more sales, coupled with elevated sales rate, indicating very strong local market
East Greenwich remains the highest valued housing market among surrounding towns with a median sale price of $436,800 in 2018 including both single-family homes and condominiums
*
Source: The Warren Group – Town Statistics
16
Home Sales
15
Sales well balanced across attendance areas Split attendance areas help balance housing stock
*
Source: The Warren Group
School District 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 3-Year TotalFrenchtown/Eldredge 151 129 132 412
Meadowbrook/Hannaford 128 142 147 417Grand Total 279 271 279 829
Total Home Sales by Attendance Area
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More than 430 housing units planned, approved and/or under construction Only 20% single-family, 3-4-bedroom units
Most apartment and condo development of 2 bedrooms or less per unit
16
Housing Development
10%
21%
34%
21%
14%
New Development by Type
Age-Restricted Condo
Condos
Apartments
Single-family
Supportive
Source: East Greenwich, RI Planning Department
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17
East Greenwich Housing Development
Property Status:- Under Construction (3)- Approved (7)- Not Yet Approved (2)
Property Type:- Single-Family (4)- Condo or Apartment (6)- Supportive (1)- Age Restricted (1)
Developments < 10 Units (8)
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Strong housing market with sales rates and prices at peak levels over the past decade
Significant housing development, although primarily multi-family with fewer bedrooms which tends to attract empty-nesters or young professionals With aging population profile, availability of multi-family can increase
turnover in existing single-family housing stock, as older householders can downsize locally
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Housing Summary
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Enrollment Trends: District
District-wide K-12 enrollment steadily increasing over the last decade, up 6% over the last 5 years and 8% over the last 10 years
The majority of the district's growth has come from elementary enrollment increasing 14% over the last 10 years, and 8% over the last 5 year
Approximately 250-350 resident students attend non-public schools in RI; numbers that should be monitored for any fluctuation that could impact EGPS
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968 1,017 1,014 1,016 1,047 1,033 1,025 1,057 1,047 1,061 1,108
605 573 574 564 593 621 638 680 634 645 626
769 764 779 777 737 724 745 724 761 768 785
2,342 2,354 2,367 2,357 2,377 2,378 2,408 2,461 2,442 2,474 2,519
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
District Enrollment Trends from 2009-10 to 2019-20
K-5 6-8 9-12 Total
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Enrollment Trends: Elementary
20
22
Enrollment Trends: Elementary
21
Total elementary enrollment gains not experienced evenly across schools Meadowbrook Farms and Eldredge experienced 24% and 12% increase over the last five
years respectively Hanaford has increased 11% over three years Frenchtown has experienced a slight decrease over five years, and more pronounced
decrease over the last three years
School Grades5-Yr
Change
Frenchtown K-2 -9
Hanaford 3-5 2
Eldredge 3-5 37
Meadowbrook Farms
K-2 47
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Enrollment Trends: Middle
22
24
Enrollment Trends: High
23
25
Student Generation from Housing
24
To further understand enrollment trends, especially given strong housing market and demographic trends indicating families with children locating to East Greenwich, analyzed enrollment relative to housing
Student generation rates can then be applied to anticipated housing development
26
New to District Students
25
Note that in-migration can result from movement into the District or transfer from other public/ private system
Slightly more in-migration apparent last year, and typically more in-migration at younger grade levels
Frenchtown/ Eldredge attendance zone experiencing more in-migration of students over each of the last three years than Meadowbrook/ Hannaford
# % # % # %Frenchtown 1-2 26 14% 24 14% 19 12% 13%George R Hanaford 3-5 14 6% 38 15% 27 10% 10%James H Eldredge 3-5 35 11% 35 11% 43 13% 12%Meadowbrook Farms 1-2 11 7% 20 12% 14 8% 9%Archie R Cole Middle 6-8 36 6% 62 10% 50 8% 8%East Greenwich High 9-12 21 3% 46 6% 38 5% 5%Grand Total 143 6% 225 10% 191 8% 8%* Grade K not included as new to district students in this analysis
Average Annual % of Grade 1-12
Students that Are New to
District
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20School Grades*
27
Students Generated by Sales
26
Only about 26% of new to district students can be attributed to a housing sale in previous year
Other possible sources of in-migration: private/ other public-school student entrance, rental housing, other housing arrangements
On average, each housing sale generates 0.17 grade 1-12 students across the District
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Grades 1-5 16 11 11 0.05Grades 6-8 9 19 21 0.06Grades 9-12 19 17 19 0.07Grand Total 279 271 279 44 47 51 0.17* Grade K not included as new students in students to sales analysis
School Housing Sales
New to District 1-12 Students Matched to Housing Sale
Average Student Yield
Per Sale
279 271 279
New to District Students Matched to a Housing Sale in Prior Year
28
Student Generation from Housing
Enrollment traditionally more significant in single family subdivisions than multi-family apartment or condo complexes
Current development activity primarily multi-family, likely will not translate to a significant direct increase in students
However, will need to monitor the extent to which new multi-family construction increases sales activity of existing single-family stock (downsizing within community)
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2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Chestnut Hill EstatesBailey Blvd & Burns
Way & Keyes Ct2004 32 18 24 23 0.68
River FarmsRiver Farm Dr &
Jefferson Dr1999 60 56 56 55 0.93
Development Street Name Year Built Total 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Vistas on the Trail - Phase 1 Vistas Ct 2009 21 1 1 2 0.06
Cottages on the Greene Greene St 2010 15 2 0 0 0.04
Shore Mill Water St 1994 21 0 0 0 0.00
# Students Enrolled
Average Students Generated per Unit
Average Students Generated per Unit
Year Built Total Homes
Single-Family Enrollment PK-12
Multi-Family Enrollment PK-12
Subdivision Street Name# Students Enrolled
Source: East Greenwich Public Schools
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Map with properties from tables
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East Greenwich Existing Developments and Subdivisions
30
Affordable Housing Examined existing Housing
Authority properties for student generation
2880 South County Trail (2-3 bedroom units) is the most recent development, built in 2014 and yields the most students, with 16 in 2019-20
29
Brookside Terrace recently proposed as 100% affordable development 74 2-bedroom units 24 1-bedroom units Would not anticipate same rate of
student generation as 2880 South County Trail due to difference in bedroom splits; however, student generation anticipated
Did not add multipliers to projections at this time due to uncertainty of occupancy timeframe
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20Dedford Farms First Ave 12 7 6 7Marlborough Crossing Duke St 16 1 2 1Cove Homes Crop St 4 0 0 1Duke St Properties Duke St 7 6 5 82880 S County Trl S County Trail 10 19 13 16Total 49 33 26 33Source: East Greenwich Affordable Housing Section of the Comprehensive Plan from 2010, EGHA
Affordable Housing
Development Street Name# Students Enrolled
Total Units
Brookside Terrace S County Trail 96
Development Street Name Total Units
Proposed Affordable Housing
Source: East Greenwich News, East Greenwich Planning Dept.
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Projections Methodology
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Cohort Survival Method
Based on Cohort Survival Methodology - Standard method for enrollment projections
The Cohort Survival Methodology relies on observed data from the recent past in order to predict the near future
Methodology works well for stable populations, including communities that are growing or declining at a steady rate
32
Projections Methodology
31
Persistency Ratios Persistency ratios are calculated from historic enrollment data to determine
growth or loss in a class as it progresses through school system Persistency ratios account for the various external factors affecting
enrollments, including housing characteristics, residential development, economic conditions, student transfers in and out of the system, and student mobility
Persistency Ratio of 1.0 means cohort size remains the same; 1.05 means the cohort size increases by 5%, or a cohort of 100 grows to 105 the following year
Changes in population, housing stock and tenure, and economic conditions help explain persistency ratios
33
Enrollment History
32
2019-20 5th and 9th grade cohorts largest of the last ten years 2019-20 12th grade cohort smallest of the last decade Smaller cohorts that entered in 2011-12 through 2013-14 have matriculated to middle
school
Year Birth Year Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PK PK-12
TotalK -12Total K-5 6-8 9-12
2009-10 2004 98 131 171 153 178 188 147 200 199 206 188 201 189 191 51 2,393 2,342 968 605 769
2010-11 2005 105 132 173 172 158 187 195 151 215 207 192 181 202 189 44 2,398 2,354 1,017 573 764
2011-12 2006 114 120 175 177 181 167 194 206 153 215 204 194 179 202 26 2,393 2,367 1,014 574 779
2012-13 2007 98 121 156 186 183 195 175 199 205 160 205 202 185 185 34 2,391 2,357 1,016 564 777
2013-14 2008 111 121 158 171 190 199 208 187 203 203 143 200 198 196 33 2,410 2,377 1,047 593 737
2014-15 2009 91 140 143 173 174 206 197 218 191 212 181 140 201 202 34 2,412 2,378 1,033 621 724
2015-16 2010 94 124 166 153 180 187 215 211 226 201 205 183 146 211 47 2,455 2,408 1,025 638 745
2016-17 2011 114 168 155 176 171 187 200 232 219 229 182 203 187 152 43 2,504 2,461 1,057 680 724
2017-18 2012 95 147 175 161 188 177 199 200 223 211 204 170 197 190 56 2,498 2,442 1,047 634 761
2018-19 2013 121 156 155 184 175 204 187 211 210 224 202 200 163 203 61 2,535 2,474 1,061 645 768
2019-20 2014 119 163 157 174 191 199 224 194 215 217 215 203 202 165 62 2,581 2,519 1,108 626 785
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Persistency Ratios
33
Inconsistent Birth – K ratio Est. of migration compares 1st – 7th grades to 2nd – 8th grade cohorts from one year to the
next to estimate in or out-migration Consistent in-migration, particularly strong the last two years, corroborates new to district
student analysis
Year Birth-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12Est. of
Migration2009-10 1.3367 1.2574 1.1087 1.0349 1.0867 1.0426 1.0050 1.0258 0.9952 0.9495 0.9805 1.0161 0.9845 3.84%2010-11 1.2571 1.3206 1.0058 1.0327 1.0506 1.0372 1.0272 1.0750 1.0402 0.9320 0.9628 1.0050 1.0000 3.96%2011-12 1.0526 1.3258 1.0231 1.0523 1.0570 1.0374 1.0564 1.0132 1.0000 0.9855 1.0104 0.9890 1.0000 3.36%2012-13 1.2347 1.3000 1.0629 1.0339 1.0773 1.0479 1.0258 0.9951 1.0458 0.9535 0.9902 0.9536 1.0335 3.99%2013-14 1.0901 1.3058 1.0962 1.0215 1.0874 1.0667 1.0686 1.0201 0.9902 0.8938 0.9756 0.9802 1.0595 4.77%2014-15 1.5385 1.1818 1.0949 1.0175 1.0842 0.9899 1.0481 1.0214 1.0443 0.8916 0.9790 1.0050 1.0202 4.18%2015-16 1.3191 1.1857 1.0699 1.0405 1.0747 1.0437 1.0711 1.0367 1.0524 0.9670 1.0110 1.0429 1.0498 5.45%2016-17 1.4737 1.2500 1.0602 1.1176 1.0389 1.0695 1.0791 1.0379 1.0133 0.9055 0.9902 1.0219 1.0411 5.68%2017-18 1.5474 1.0417 1.0387 1.0682 1.0351 1.0642 1.0000 0.9612 0.9635 0.8908 0.9341 0.9704 1.0160 1.42%2018-19 1.2893 1.0544 1.0514 1.0870 1.0851 1.0565 1.0603 1.0500 1.0045 0.9573 0.9804 0.9588 1.0305 5.44%2019-20 1.3697 1.0064 1.1226 1.0380 1.1371 1.0980 1.0374 1.0190 1.0333 0.9598 1.0050 1.0100 1.0123 6.64%
Long Term Avg. 1.3190 1.2027 1.0668 1.0495 1.0740 1.0503 1.0435 1.0232 1.0166 0.9351 0.9836 0.9957 1.0225
5-Year Avg. 1.3998 1.1076 1.0686 1.0703 1.0742 1.0664 1.0496 1.0210 1.0134 0.9361 0.9841 1.0008 1.0299
3-Year Avg. 1.4021 1.0342 1.0709 1.0644 1.0858 1.0729 1.0326 1.0101 1.0004 0.9360 0.9732 0.9797 1.0196
3-Year Wgt Avg. 1.3725 1.0283 1.0849 1.0594 1.1028 1.0785 1.0388 1.0197 1.0121 0.9475 0.9850 0.9863 1.0190
2-Year Avg 1.3295 1.0304 1.0870 1.0625 1.1111 1.0773 1.0489 1.0345 1.0189 0.9586 0.9927 0.9844 1.0214
Kindergarten through 12th Grade Persistency Ratios by School Year2009-10 to 2019-20
35
Birth to K
34
More correlation between births five years previous and K cohorts over the last 4-5 years
Changes in availability of full-day Kindergarten affecting recent trends Still not highly consistent over the last three years
11398 106
115100
11292 97
11699
121 119
136 131 132120 121 121
140124
168147
156 163
020406080
100120140160180200
Kindergarten Classes and Births Five Years Previous
Births KSources: RIDE and RI DPH
36
Districtwide Projections
High Model: assumes increased housing sales activity and most recent enrollment trendsMedium Model: assumes current housing and enrollment trends (recommended)Low Model: assumes decreasing housing sales activity and lowest recent enrollment trends
35
Source: RIDE (Actual Enrollments), MMI Projections using several aggregates of persistency ratios
1,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,9003,1003,3003,500
East Greenwich Actual and Projected K-12 Enrollments, 2008-09 to 2029-30
Low Med High Actual
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Districtwide Projections
Overall K-12 projected to increase 1% over 5 years, but decrease about 3% over the next 10 years
K-5 enrollment projected to increase slightly over the next two years before decreasing 8% by 2024-25
Middle and high schools projected to grow over the next five years as larger elementary cohorts move up
36
Assumes introduction of universal PK in 2024-25 (4-year old)
YearBirth Year
Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PKPK-12 Total
K-12 Total
K-5 Total
6-8 Total
9-12 Total
2019-20 2014 119 163 157 174 191 199 224 194 215 217 215 203 202 165 62 2,581 2,519 1,108 626 7852020-21 2015 118 162 168 170 184 211 215 233 198 218 206 212 200 206 65 2,648 2,583 1,110 649 8242021-22 2016 117 161 167 182 180 203 228 223 238 200 207 203 209 204 65 2,670 2,605 1,121 661 8232022-23 2017 81 116 166 181 193 199 219 237 227 241 190 204 200 213 65 2,651 2,586 1,074 705 8072023-24 2018 83 119 119 180 192 213 215 227 242 230 228 187 201 204 65 2,622 2,557 1,038 699 8202024-25 2019 101 139 122 129 191 212 230 223 231 245 218 225 184 205 132 2,686 2,554 1,023 699 8322025-26 2020 101 139 143 132 137 211 229 239 227 234 232 215 222 187 130 2,677 2,547 991 700 8562026-27 2021 100 137 143 155 140 151 228 238 244 230 222 229 212 226 130 2,685 2,555 954 712 8892027-28 2022 100 137 141 155 164 154 163 237 243 247 218 219 226 216 129 2,649 2,520 914 727 8792028-29 2023 99 136 141 153 164 181 166 169 242 246 234 215 216 230 129 2,622 2,493 941 657 8952029-30 2024 99 136 140 153 162 181 195 172 172 245 233 230 212 220 130 2,581 2,451 967 589 895
PK-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 # 105 35 -85 73 47% 4.1% 1.4% -7.7% 11.7% 6.0%# 0 -68 -141 -37 110% 0.0% -2.7% -12.7% -5.9% 14.0%
Five YearsTen
Years
ChangeMedium Model Change Table
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Elementary Projections
Birth rate decline of 2017 and 2018 affecting Frenchtown and Meadowbrook Farms in the first five years of projections
Hanaford projected to increase 11% over five years due to some larger cohorts currently in Meadowbrook, before decreasing 3% by 2029-30
Eldredge projected to decrease about 4% over the next five years
37
Source: MMI Projection based on 3-yr weighted average persistency ratios and medium projected births model
School 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30Hanaford 281 252 249 259 279 286 303 307 312 310 292 262 242 258 272Frenchtown 238 271 252 242 245 247 258 227 205 192 203 213 212 210 209Eldrege 298 303 312 307 335 324 308 304 308 323 285 258 239 253 266Meadowbrook Farms 205 226 230 252 249 253 252 236 213 198 211 222 221 220 220Total: 1,022 1,052 1,043 1,060 1,108 1,110 1,121 1,074 1,038 1,023 991 955 914 941 967
Historic and Projected Enrollment by School
# % # %Hanaford 31 11.1% -7 -2.5%
Frenchtown -53 -21.6% -36 -14.7%Eldrege -12 -3.6% -69 -20.6%
Meadowbrook Farms -51 -20.5% -29 -11.6%
Five-Year Projected Change
Ten-Year Projected ChangeSchool
39
Summary Direct student generation from new housing units that will be occupied over
the next few years needs to be monitored. Student multipliers may need to be added to projections when there is more clarity on Brookside Terrace development construction and occupancy timeframe.
Sales activity from turnover in existing single-family housing units (as a result of other multi-family construction in Town) needs to be monitored, as more significant contributor of students
Trends in resident student attendance in other public and private schools should be analyzed
38
40
39
Questions?
41
40
Districtwide Low Projections
Universal Pre-K estimates beginning in 2024-25
YearBirth Year
Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PKPK-12 Total
K-12 Total
K-5 Total
6-8 Total
9-12 Total
2019-20 2014 119 163 157 174 191 199 224 194 215 217 215 203 202 165 62 2,581 2,519 1,108 626 7852020-21 2015 118 161 169 168 185 207 214 231 196 215 203 209 199 206 65 2,628 2,563 1,104 642 8172021-22 2016 117 159 167 181 179 201 222 221 233 196 201 198 205 203 65 2,631 2,566 1,109 650 8072022-23 2017 81 114 164 179 193 194 216 229 223 233 183 196 194 209 65 2,592 2,527 1,060 685 7822023-24 2018 83 116 118 176 191 210 208 223 231 223 218 178 192 198 65 2,547 2,482 1,019 677 7862024-25 2019 98 133 120 126 187 207 225 215 225 231 209 212 174 196 126 2,586 2,460 998 671 7912025-26 2020 98 133 138 129 134 203 222 232 217 225 216 203 208 177 125 2,562 2,437 959 674 8042026-27 2021 97 132 138 148 137 145 218 229 234 217 211 210 199 212 124 2,554 2,430 918 680 8322027-28 2022 96 131 137 148 158 149 156 225 231 234 203 205 206 203 123 2,509 2,386 879 690 8172028-29 2023 95 129 135 147 158 172 160 161 227 231 219 198 201 210 123 2,471 2,348 901 619 8282029-30 2024 95 129 133 145 156 172 185 165 163 227 216 213 194 205 124 2,427 2,303 920 555 828
42
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Districtwide High Projections
Universal Pre-K estimates beginning in 2024-25
YearBirth Year
Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PKPK-12 Total
K-12 Total
K-5 Total
6-8 Total
9-12 Total
2019-20 2014 119 163 157 174 191 199 224 194 215 217 215 203 202 165 62 2,581 2,519 1,108 626 7852020-21 2015 118 163 168 171 185 212 214 235 201 219 208 213 200 206 65 2,660 2,595 1,113 655 8272021-22 2016 117 162 168 183 182 206 228 224 243 205 210 206 210 204 65 2,696 2,631 1,129 672 8302022-23 2017 81 117 167 183 194 202 222 239 232 248 197 208 203 214 65 2,691 2,626 1,085 719 8222023-24 2018 83 120 121 182 194 216 218 233 247 236 238 196 205 207 65 2,678 2,613 1,051 716 8462024-25 2019 102 141 124 132 193 216 233 229 241 252 226 236 193 209 134 2,759 2,625 1,039 722 8642025-26 2020 102 141 145 135 140 214 233 244 237 246 242 224 232 197 133 2,763 2,630 1,008 727 8952026-27 2021 101 140 145 158 143 156 231 244 252 241 236 240 221 237 133 2,777 2,644 973 737 9342027-28 2022 101 140 144 158 168 159 168 242 252 257 231 234 236 226 131 2,746 2,615 937 751 9272028-29 2023 100 138 144 157 168 187 171 176 250 257 246 229 230 241 131 2,725 2,594 965 683 9462029-30 2024 100 138 142 157 167 187 201 179 182 255 246 244 225 235 132 2,690 2,558 992 616 950
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Town of East Greenwich, RITOWN COUNCIL AGENDA TRANSMITTAL FORM
Town Council Meeting Date: December 16, 2019
1. Agenda Item (List as it should appear on the agenda)
Statutory pre-budget consultation between East Greenwich School Committee and EastGreenwich Town Council for review of revenue and expenditure projections and discussionon issues affecting preparation of the school budget per RIGL 16-2-21.2 (d)
RIDE Projected Education Aid for FY2021FY 2020-2022 Fiscal Impact Statement NEARI/NEA Teacher's UnionCapital Improvement Plans, Capital Reserve Structure and RIDE Reimbursement
2. Submitted by (List department and individual, if necessary) Leigh Carney, Town Clerk 3. Provide a brief description of the item and why it is on the agenda
Per RIGL 16-2-21.2 (d), there shall annually be a joint meeting between the city or towncouncil and the school committee not later than December 31st to review the revenue andexpenditure projections and to discuss issues affecting the preparation of the school budget.
4. Provide a suggested Action Informational only 5. Contact person and phone number for questions. Andrew E Nota, 401-886-8665
ATTACHMENTS: 2019.12.16 FY-21-State-Requested-Aid-11-15-19.pdf 2019.12.16 Fiscal Impact Statement 2020-2022.pdf
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FY 2021 Enacted Education Aid * 11/15/2019
A B A+ B=C D E F C+D+E+F=G H I G+H+I=JFY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2021 High-Cost Regional FY 2021 Non-Public English FY 2021
Formula Aid Formula Formula Group Home Special Ed. Transporation Education Transportation Learner TotalLEA (excludes group home) $ Change Aid Aid Categorical Categorical Aid Offset Categorical Aid
BARRINGTON $5,693,721 $53,939 $5,747,660 $0 $86,831 $0 $5,834,491 $89,901 $2,490 $5,926,882
BURRILLVILLE $12,926,571 $1,246,487 $14,173,058 $80,022 $99,609 $0 $14,352,689 $57,537 $892 $14,411,118
CENTRAL FALLS $41,476,650 $2,363,343 $43,839,993 $0 $54,570 $0 $43,894,563 $42,211 $425,097 $44,361,871
CHARIHO $38,320 ($38,320) $0 $0 $80,119 $1,722,327 $1,802,446 $307,037 $796 $2,110,279
CHARLESTOWN $1,543,188 ($195,293) $1,347,895 $0 $0 $0 $1,347,895 $0 $0 $1,347,895
COVENTRY $24,332,697 ($63,294) $24,269,403 $83,543 $31,586 $0 $24,384,532 $9,887 $5,293 $24,399,712
CRANSTON $64,319,722 $4,022,337 $68,342,059 $37,602 $358,443 $0 $68,738,104 $767,021 $141,104 $69,646,229
CUMBERLAND $21,547,453 ($815,884) $20,731,569 $0 $52,066 $0 $20,783,635 $64,197 $23,118 $20,870,950
EAST GREENWICH $2,531,530 $693,306 $3,224,836 $0 $127,445 $0 $3,352,281 $65,132 $640 $3,418,053
EAST PROVIDENCE $35,472,845 $585,139 $36,057,984 $509,554 $240,520 $0 $36,808,058 $2,056 $57,735 $36,867,849
FOSTER $1,149,740 $9,694 $1,159,434 $0 $48,539 $0 $1,207,973 $16,679 $0 $1,224,652
FOSTER-GLOC $4,676,149 ($159,656) $4,516,493 $0 $58,113 $533,798 $5,108,404 $0 $0 $5,108,404
GLOCESTER $2,164,338 ($143,996) $2,020,342 $0 $89,319 $0 $2,109,661 $18,702 $0 $2,128,363
HOPKINTON $5,169,861 $211,719 $5,381,580 $0 $0 $0 $5,381,580 $0 $0 $5,381,580
JAMESTOWN $425,899 ($46,035) $379,864 $0 $40,076 $0 $419,940 $0 $0 $419,940
JOHNSTON $17,893,657 $864,305 $18,757,962 $0 $154,382 $0 $18,912,344 $210,445 $30,507 $19,153,296
LINCOLN $14,269,740 $254,177 $14,523,917 $89,418 $53,230 $0 $14,666,565 $0 $6,432 $14,672,997
LITTLE COMPTON $403,530 $1,736 $405,266 $0 $0 $0 $405,266 $0 $65 $405,331
MIDDLETOWN $7,533,193 $222,882 $7,756,075 $0 $46,830 $0 $7,802,905 $0 $12,439 $7,815,344
NARRAGANSETT $2,217,917 $25,977 $2,243,894 $0 $37,420 $0 $2,281,314 $0 $498 $2,281,812
NEW SHOREHAM $130,462 $43,997 $174,459 $0 $1,875 $0 $176,334 $0 $493 $176,827
NEWPORT $12,377,253 $1,143,301 $13,520,554 $145,520 $4,318 $0 $13,670,392 $0 $53,888 $13,724,280
NORTH KINGSTOWN $10,417,472 $1,390,553 $11,808,025 $0 $68,817 $0 $11,876,842 $0 $6,541 $11,883,383
NORTH PROVIDENCE $22,896,007 $1,260,424 $24,156,431 $148,781 $162,128 $0 $24,467,340 $145,220 $30,103 $24,642,663
NORTH SMITHFIELD $5,716,299 $290,569 $6,006,868 $100,435 $54,110 $0 $6,161,413 $10,923 $2,456 $6,174,792
PAWTUCKET $89,623,419 $2,854,303 $92,477,722 $126,901 $906,355 $0 $93,510,978 $187,773 $461,946 $94,160,697
PORTSMOUTH $3,428,751 ($196,745) $3,232,006 $557,258 $62,428 $0 $3,851,692 $0 $463 $3,852,155
PROVIDENCE $259,312,069 $3,963,445 $263,275,514 $476,104 $731,507 $0 $264,483,125 $314,329 $2,984,872 $267,782,326
- Although RIDE requested increases to the categorical funds, the figures below assume level funding using prior year data. RIDE will update the allocations as additional information and updated data becomes available. - Does not include funding changes for new charter schools requested during the summer 2019 application process. Schools receiving preliminary approval from the Council with a projected September 2020 opening date will be included in the March 2020 data updates and will result in reduced formula aid for the applicable sending communities. The charter school applications and local impact summaries may be found at: http://www.ride.ri.gov/StudentsFamilies/RIPublicSchools/CharterSchools.aspx#1977600-charter-school-proposals-under-review-and-public-hearings.
- Projections are being provided for LEA budget planning purposes and are subject to the availability of funds, changes based on data updates, and Governor/General Assembly approval.
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FY 2021 Enacted Education Aid * 11/15/2019
A B A+ B=C D E F C+D+E+F=G H I G+H+I=JFY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2021 High-Cost Regional FY 2021 Non-Public English FY 2021
Formula Aid Formula Formula Group Home Special Ed. Transporation Education Transportation Learner TotalLEA (excludes group home) $ Change Aid Aid Categorical Categorical Aid Offset Categorical Aid
- Although RIDE requested increases to the categorical funds, the figures below assume level funding using prior year data. RIDE will update the allocations as additional information and updated data becomes available. - Does not include funding changes for new charter schools requested during the summer 2019 application process. Schools receiving preliminary approval from the Council with a projected September 2020 opening date will be included in the March 2020 data updates and will result in reduced formula aid for the applicable sending communities. The charter school applications and local impact summaries may be found at: http://www.ride.ri.gov/StudentsFamilies/RIPublicSchools/CharterSchools.aspx#1977600-charter-school-proposals-under-review-and-public-hearings.
- Projections are being provided for LEA budget planning purposes and are subject to the availability of funds, changes based on data updates, and Governor/General Assembly approval.
RICHMOND $4,640,585 $77,386 $4,717,971 $0 $0 $0 $4,717,971 $0 $0 $4,717,971
SCITUATE $2,767,459 ($20,646) $2,746,813 $0 $31,792 $0 $2,778,605 $25,059 $0 $2,803,664
SMITHFIELD $6,081,263 ($245,456) $5,835,807 $219,137 $70,005 $0 $6,124,949 $85,863 $1,263 $6,212,075
SOUTH KINGSTOWN $5,102,341 ($579,894) $4,522,447 $118,333 $97,103 $0 $4,737,883 $112,448 $3,092 $4,853,423
TIVERTON $7,166,770 $298,829 $7,465,599 $0 $71,478 $0 $7,537,077 $0 $1,527 $7,538,604
WARWICK $38,179,304 $239,270 $38,418,574 $279,648 $275,420 $0 $38,973,642 $4,249 $22,495 $39,000,386
WEST WARWICK $27,009,115 $1,927,874 $28,936,989 $0 $0 $0 $28,936,989 $64,184 $20,833 $29,022,006
WESTERLY $8,550,266 ($470,984) $8,079,282 $0 $100,789 $0 $8,180,071 $0 $5,534 $8,185,605
WOONSOCKET $63,607,000 $4,407,464 $68,014,464 $44,244 $61,743 $0 $68,120,451 $12,488 $255,356 $68,388,295
BRISTOL-WARREN REGIONAL $13,046,782 ($18,337) $13,028,445 $90,976 $95,476 $1,277,288 $14,492,185 $302,735 $8,461 $14,803,381
BRISTOL $5,696,155 ($178,760) $5,517,395
WARREN $7,350,627 $160,423 $7,511,050
EXETER-W. GREEN REGIONAL $5,038,413 ($870,471) $4,167,942 $125,677 $42,047 $1,089,263 $5,424,929 $122,608 $1,473 $5,549,010
EXETER $2,066,425 ($252,143) $1,814,282
WEST GREENWICH $2,971,988 ($618,328) $2,353,660
Subtotal District Aid $850,877,751 $24,587,445 $875,465,196 $3,233,153 $4,496,489 $4,622,676 $887,817,514 $3,038,684 $4,567,902 $895,424,100
ACADEMY CAREER EXPL. $2,221,932 $54,068 $2,276,000 $0 $0 $0 $2,276,000 $0 $9,678 $2,285,678
ACHIEVEMENT FIRST $14,506,807 $2,659,949 $17,166,756 $0 $0 $0 $17,166,756 $0 $80,797 $17,247,553
BEACON $3,041,595 $233,413 $3,275,008 $0 $0 $0 $3,275,008 $0 $487 $3,275,495
BLACKSTONE ACADEMY $3,898,745 $136,109 $4,034,854 $0 $0 $0 $4,034,854 $0 $5,204 $4,040,058
BLACKSTONE VALLEY PREP $19,650,936 $529,116 $20,180,052 $0 $0 $0 $20,180,052 $0 $51,284 $20,231,336
CHARETTE $1,462,582 $539,031 $2,001,613 $0 $0 $0 $2,001,613 $0 $0 $2,001,613
COMPASS $499,581 $79,038 $578,619 $0 $0 $0 $578,619 $0 $0 $578,619
GREENE SCHOOL $1,263,068 $33,473 $1,296,541 $0 $0 $0 $1,296,541 $0 $557 $1,297,098
HIGHLANDER $6,213,203 $401,007 $6,614,210 $0 $3,511 $0 $6,617,721 $0 $35,940 $6,653,661
HOPE ACADEMY $2,227,072 $445,245 $2,672,317 $0 $0 $0 $2,672,317 $0 $9,169 $2,681,486
INTERNATIONAL $3,458,899 $164,786 $3,623,685 $0 $0 $0 $3,623,685 $0 $46,607 $3,670,292
46
FY 2021 Enacted Education Aid * 11/15/2019
A B A+ B=C D E F C+D+E+F=G H I G+H+I=JFY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2021 High-Cost Regional FY 2021 Non-Public English FY 2021
Formula Aid Formula Formula Group Home Special Ed. Transporation Education Transportation Learner TotalLEA (excludes group home) $ Change Aid Aid Categorical Categorical Aid Offset Categorical Aid
- Although RIDE requested increases to the categorical funds, the figures below assume level funding using prior year data. RIDE will update the allocations as additional information and updated data becomes available. - Does not include funding changes for new charter schools requested during the summer 2019 application process. Schools receiving preliminary approval from the Council with a projected September 2020 opening date will be included in the March 2020 data updates and will result in reduced formula aid for the applicable sending communities. The charter school applications and local impact summaries may be found at: http://www.ride.ri.gov/StudentsFamilies/RIPublicSchools/CharterSchools.aspx#1977600-charter-school-proposals-under-review-and-public-hearings.
- Projections are being provided for LEA budget planning purposes and are subject to the availability of funds, changes based on data updates, and Governor/General Assembly approval.
KINGSTON HILL $676,342 $165,201 $841,543 $0 $0 $0 $841,543 $0 $0 $841,543
LEARNING COMM $6,831,139 $284,240 $7,115,379 $0 $0 $0 $7,115,379 $0 $62,361 $7,177,740
NEW ENG LABORERS $1,288,574 $63,909 $1,352,483 $0 $0 $0 $1,352,483 $0 $5,503 $1,357,986
NOWELL ACADEMY $1,764,590 $66,151 $1,830,741 $0 $0 $0 $1,830,741 $0 $12,765 $1,843,506
NURSES INSTITUTE $2,936,639 $92,122 $3,028,761 $0 $0 $0 $3,028,761 $0 $12,203 $3,040,964
PAUL CUFFEE $9,177,960 $247,916 $9,425,876 $0 $0 $0 $9,425,876 $0 $22,922 $9,448,798
RISE MAYORAL $2,406,055 $757,166 $3,163,221 $0 $0 $0 $3,163,221 $0 $2,437 $3,165,658
SEGUE INSTITUTE $3,022,682 $124,546 $3,147,228 $0 $0 $0 $3,147,228 $0 $15,043 $3,162,271
SOUTHSIDE $1,633,370 $44,055 $1,677,425 $0 $0 $0 $1,677,425 $0 $5,094 $1,682,519
TIMES2 ACADEMY $8,150,385 $220,159 $8,370,544 $0 $0 $0 $8,370,544 $0 $20,884 $8,391,428
TRINITY $2,383,975 $64,396 $2,448,371 $0 $0 $0 $2,448,371 $0 $6,622 $2,454,993
VILLAGE GREEN $2,321,706 $69,627 $2,391,333 $0 $0 $0 $2,391,333 $0 $7,640 $2,398,973
Subtotal Charter Aid $101,037,837 $7,474,723 $108,512,560 $0 $3,511 $0 $108,516,071 $0 $413,197 $108,929,268
DAVIES C&T $13,694,981 $76,139 $13,771,120 $0 $0 $0 $13,771,120 $0 $2,853 $13,773,973
MET CENTER $9,342,007 $0 $9,342,007 $0 $0 $0 $9,342,007 $0 $11,093 $9,353,100
UCAP $1,539,913 $44,685 $1,584,598 $0 $0 $0 $1,584,598 $0 $4,955 $1,589,553
Total $976,492,489 $32,182,992 $1,008,675,481 $3,233,153 $4,500,000 $4,622,676 $1,021,031,310 $3,038,684 $5,000,000 $1,029,069,994
* Does not include career and technical, early childhood, or school resource officer funding, which is allocated through a separate process** State funding for non-public transportation categorical is not paid directly to school districts and instead processed as a credit on the invoice, up to the amount for actual services rendered.*** The English Learner funds require pre-approval from the department prior to expenditure (RIGL 16-7.2-6(g)). Funding will be released on a reimbursement basis upon receipt of the required
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