Earthquake Emergency Response

LT Byron LeeLT K. Beth Jasper

LT Greg Bauer

Problem Statement

• Analyze Monterey County’s transportation network in the event of a 7.9 magnitude earthquake or greater along the San Andreas fault, with emphasis on transporting displaced personnel to shelters– What are the optimal routes to get people to shelters in

the event of numerous road closures?– How many road closures need to exist before it isn’t

possible to get people to shelters?

Monterey County Fault Lines

Mathematically Modeling the Real World

• Measures of Effectiveness for our network:– 11,500 people anticipated to need shelter receive it. – Those that are denied shelter, are still provided relief services

• Framework behind our model:– In the event of an earthquake, is there sufficient redundancy

in the main road network to accomplish the evacuation plan set out by Bay Area Urban Area Security (BAUAS) Initiative?

– Based on the data available, can we answer specific questions concerning the performance of the BAUAS plan:• Do those in need receive the care as planned?• What major roads are critical to the successful completion of the

plan?

Operator’s Problem

• Decisions the Operator makes when operating in the network– Interdictions (i.e. road outages) were based on

data provided by the United States Geological Society (USGS) • e.g. Shake maps and liquefaction data

– As an operator on the network, which path would be optimal (i.e. shortest path) from the evacuation pick-up sites to a shelter that has availability; with and without various levels of interdiction

Start

Service

Shelter

No Servic

e

Generalized Shelter Node in the vicinity of EVAC sites

End

Service

Shelter

No Servic

e

Generalized Shelter Node more distant from EVAC sites

(0, %PEVACi, )(dij, 0, )(dij, 0, )(cij, 0, )(fij, 0, )(0, 0, )(0, 0, )

-nn

Where:dij = distance on arccij = penalty for no servicefij = penalty for service w/ no shelterUij = upper capacity of shelter (Service / Sheltering)

Cij > fij

EVAC 2

EVAC 3

EVAC 4

EVAC 5

EVAC 1

EVAC 6

EVAC 7

Operators Resilience Curve

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 920000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Bridges OnlyBridges and BuildingsFuel Under Case 1Fuel Under Case 2

Number of Bridges/Building Destroyed

Cost

(Peo

ple*

Mile

s) /

Esti

mat

ed G

als o

f Fue

l

Open Analysis Directions

• Look at secondary quakes that could be triggered by a large earthquake on the San Andreas

• Expand the model to include Handicapped accessibility facilities and bathrooms at facilities

• Add precision to the model to use it to direct remote sensing collections

• Adding fuel constraints to the min-cost model (min-cost constrained)

Summary Conclusions

• The bridges that had the highest probability of being damaged did not prevent the flow of personnel to shelters, however the cost did go up in terms of distance

• The combined damage to buildings and bridges increased the cost in distance traveled and people not sheltered

• Monterey County has ample shelter facilities to provide servicing and housing under this scenario

Min Cost Network Flow

Data: