Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - 3 -iv...Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

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Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simposium Maklmat Geospatial Kebangsaan Ke-5 21 & 22 Mei 2012, Dewan B, Pusat Konvensyen Antarabangsa Putrajaya (PICC) 2 SCOPE Natural Hazards Affecting Malaysia Early Warning System for Risk Management Multi Hazard Early Warning System at MMD Weather & Climate Extremes Earthquakes & Tsunamis Concluding Remarks 3 Natural hazards affecting Malaysia Natural Hazards affecting Malaysia Weather related Hazards Floods from heavy monsoonal rain Flash floods Severe thunderstorms / lightning Tropical cyclones / typhoons Strong Winds and rough seas Forest fires Severe haze Agricultural droughts Geophysical Hazards Earthquakes Tsunamis Landslides Volcanic Eruptions Severe Weather in Malaysia Northeast Monsoon (Nov Mac) Southwest Monsoon (Jun Aug) Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct) Flood Haze Flash Flood Strong Wind and Rough Sea Among the Extreme Weather Events in Pen. Malaysia: 2005 - 2009 e.g. The abnormal severe floods over Peninsular Malaysia during winter monsoon of 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 Among the Extreme Weather Events in Sabah & Sarawak: 2010 - 2011 Flashflood, Mukim Dalit, Pensiangan, Jan 2011 Strong winds, Kanowit, Nov 2010 Flood, Long Lama, Miri Nov 2010 Flashflood, Kota Kinabalu Mac 2011 Flood, Lahad Datu, 28 Jan 2011 Flood, Kidurong, Bintulu, Jan 2010 Recent Severe Thunderstorm Event on 17 February 2011 in Petaling Jaya & Subang Jaya Jalan Universiti, Petaling Jaya Sek. Keb. Methodist, Sec 5, PJ Jalan Kewajipan, Subang Jaya Among the Water Spout Events: 2006 - 2010 Kudat, 2006 Miri, April 2010 Jejawi, Perlis, October 2010 Pulau Tioman, June 2009 Tanjung Bungah, Penang, July 2007 Malacca, November 2010 Pulau Pinang, 2010 Bkt. Kriang, Kedah, Mac 2011 Weather Extremes uring Southwest Monsoon Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong, 2010 Kelantan, 2010 Sarawak, 2009 Muar, 2010 11 Earthquake Activities Around Malaysia (1959 ~ 2004) 12 TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES ON 26 DECEMBER 2004 1 2 Phuket : 2.0 hrs Langkawi : 3.0 hrs Balik Pulau : 4.0 hrs B. Feringghi : 4.4 hrs Kuala Muda : 4.5 hrs Jln. Gurney : 4.5 hrs Bagan Datok : 5.5 hrs Sabak Bernam : 6.0 hrs 13 Earthquakes: Plate Boundaries Southeast Asia Region 14 Early Warning System for Risk Management risk management crisis management Reconstruction Recovery Response Impact Assessment Mitigation Preparedness Prediction and Early Warning Disaster 16 A weakness or failure in any one of these elements could result in the failure of the whole system. FOUR main elements of People-Centered Early Warning Systems Dissemination & Communication Communicate Risk Information and Early Warnings Response Capabilities Building National and Community Response Capabilities Monitoring and Warning Service Develop Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning Services Risk Knowledge Systematically Collect Data and Undertake Risk Assessments 17 Warnings must be produced Warning message must be transmitted & received Information must be understood Information must be confirmed Message must be believed Risk must be personalised Decision to take appropriate defensive and preparatory actions Resources and capacity for preparatory action Early Warning Systems Requirements 18 Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD 19 Integrated Early Warning System at MMD Weather monitoring, prediction, & warning Sea state monitoring, prediction & warning Earthquake monitoring & tsunami early warning system RESPONSE CAPACITY COMMUNICATION & DISSEMINATION MONITORING & WARNING SYSTEM RISK KNOWLEDGE People-centered Early Warning Systems For Weather, Sea-State & Tsunamis F:/yuzaimi/Desktop/BuoyNet.pptF:/yuzaimi/Desktop/Siren.pptF:/yuzaimi/Desktop/TidalNet.ppthttp://www.stuffintheair.com/radar-real-time-weather.htmlMalaysian Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Since 2005 TSUNAMI FLOOD SEVERE WEATHER FOREST FIRE VOLCANO SMS & Cell Broadcasting Fixed Lines Disaster Alert System Siren Printed Media TV & Radio MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING CENTRE AT MMD DISSEMINATION SMS & Emails TV Crawlers (Hotline between MMD & RTM) Mini TV broadcast studio at MMD Telefax Website Fixed Line Alert System (FLAS) Tsunami Sirens WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM Data DisseminationComputer Processing Facilities and Forecasting ModelWeather ForecastWarningMass MediaGeneral PublicPublic OrganizationsReceive and ActionEnsemble prediction system Multi-model and single model ensembles Deteministic models Decision support system Decision support tools Assesments Observing system Satellite In situ Social decisions Economical decisions Environmental decisions Weather forecasts Data Data assimilation system Security decisions End-to-end Weather & Climate forecast system require decision support tools to enhance applications Importance Day Week Month Season Year Average Time Scale Thunderstorms Typhoon Tropical disturbances Intra-seasonal 2-Week 3-Month El Nino/ La Nina Predictability of short & medium-range weather forecast Predictability of seasonal and yearly forecast Constraint: Short, Medium-range & Seasonal Predictibility Future (Tahap Semasa Keupayaan JMM Dalam Memberikan Perkhidmatan Global Framework For Climate Services (GFCS) 29 Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD Earthquakes & Tsunamis EARTHQUAKES: MONITORING SEISMIC ACTIVITIES 17 seismic stations 3110 min Timeline TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Coastal Points (99 points) - Bathymetry water depth ~ 1 m Forecast Points (99 points) - Bathymetry water depth ~ 50 m Tsunami Modeling & Database (Mw) 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 Depth (km) 0 20 40 60 MMD also monitor the sea level at 37 sites in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean MNTEWC TSUNAMIS: TIDE GAUGE FOR SEA LEVEL MONITORING 17 Sites: transmission of data every 1 min. MONITORING (COASTAL CAMERA) 18 Sites To improve weather & climate extremes, sea state and tsunami early warning services for societal well being, we need: Higher accuracy of weather & climate forecasts at local level; shorter timeline with accuracy of tsunami warning after earthquake occurrence; awareness programmes (drills, table=top exercises & awareness campaigns) for both tsunamis and weather extremes; better coordination between disaster management agencies; and Better risk assessments. Concluding Remarks Thank You

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