Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - 3 -iv...Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

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  • Early Warning System

    on Natural Disasters

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simposium Maklmat Geospatial Kebangsaan Ke-5

    21 & 22 Mei 2012, Dewan B, Pusat Konvensyen Antarabangsa Putrajaya (PICC)

  • 2

    SCOPE

    Natural Hazards Affecting Malaysia

    Early Warning System for Risk Management

    Multi Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

    Weather & Climate Extremes

    Earthquakes & Tsunamis

    Concluding Remarks

  • 3

    Natural hazards affecting

    Malaysia

  • Natural Hazards affecting Malaysia

    Weather related Hazards

    Floods from heavy monsoonal rain

    Flash floods

    Severe thunderstorms / lightning

    Tropical cyclones / typhoons

    Strong Winds and rough seas

    Forest fires

    Severe haze

    Agricultural droughts

    Geophysical Hazards

    Earthquakes

    Tsunamis

    Landslides

    Volcanic Eruptions

  • Severe Weather in Malaysia

    Northeast Monsoon (Nov Mac)

    Southwest Monsoon (Jun Aug)

    Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct)

    Flood

    Haze

    Flash Flood

    Strong Wind and Rough Sea

  • Among the Extreme Weather Events in Pen. Malaysia: 2005 - 2009

    e.g.

    The abnormal severe floods

    over Peninsular Malaysia

    during winter monsoon of

    2006/2007 and 2007/2008

  • Among the Extreme Weather Events in Sabah & Sarawak: 2010 - 2011

    Flashflood, Mukim Dalit,

    Pensiangan, Jan 2011

    Strong winds, Kanowit,

    Nov 2010

    Flood, Long Lama, Miri

    Nov 2010

    Flashflood, Kota Kinabalu

    Mac 2011

    Flood, Lahad Datu, 28 Jan

    2011

    Flood, Kidurong, Bintulu,

    Jan 2010

  • Recent Severe Thunderstorm Event on 17 February 2011 in Petaling Jaya & Subang Jaya Jalan Universiti,

    Petaling Jaya

    Sek. Keb. Methodist,

    Sec 5, PJ

    Jalan

    Kewajipan,

    Subang

    Jaya

  • Among the Water Spout Events: 2006 - 2010

    Kudat, 2006 Miri, April 2010

    Jejawi, Perlis,

    October 2010 Pulau Tioman,

    June 2009

    Tanjung Bungah,

    Penang,

    July 2007

    Malacca, November

    2010

    Pulau Pinang, 2010 Bkt. Kriang, Kedah,

    Mac 2011

  • Weather Extremes uring Southwest Monsoon

    Jerebu, 1997

    Sg. Sembrong,

    2010

    Kelantan, 2010

    Sarawak, 2009

    Muar, 2010

  • 11

    Earthquake Activities

    Around Malaysia (1959 ~ 2004)

  • 12

    TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES

    ON 26 DECEMBER 2004

    1

    2

    Phuket : 2.0 hrs

    Langkawi : 3.0 hrs

    Balik Pulau : 4.0 hrs

    B. Feringghi : 4.4 hrs

    Kuala Muda : 4.5 hrs

    Jln. Gurney : 4.5 hrs

    Bagan Datok : 5.5 hrs

    Sabak Bernam : 6.0 hrs

  • 13

    Earthquakes:

    Plate Boundaries Southeast Asia Region

  • 14

    Early Warning System for

    Risk Management

  • risk management

    crisis management

    Reconstruction

    Recovery Response

    Impact

    Assessment

    Mitigation

    Preparedness Prediction and

    Early Warning

    Disaster

  • 16

    A weakness or failure in any one of these

    elements could result in the failure of the

    whole system.

    FOUR main elements of

    People-Centered Early Warning Systems

    Dissemination

    & Communication

    Communicate

    Risk Information

    and

    Early Warnings

    Response

    Capabilities

    Building National

    and Community

    Response

    Capabilities

    Monitoring and

    Warning Service

    Develop Hazard

    Monitoring and

    Early Warning

    Services

    Risk Knowledge

    Systematically

    Collect Data and

    Undertake Risk

    Assessments

  • 17

    Warnings must be produced

    Warning message must be transmitted & received

    Information must be understood

    Information must be confirmed

    Message must be believed

    Risk must be personalised

    Decision to take appropriate defensive and preparatory

    actions

    Resources and capacity for preparatory action

    Early Warning Systems Requirements

  • 18

    Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

  • 19

    Integrated

    Early Warning System at MMD

    Weather monitoring, prediction, &

    warning

    Sea state monitoring, prediction &

    warning

    Earthquake monitoring & tsunami early

    warning system

  • RESPONSE CAPACITY COMMUNICATION & DISSEMINATION

    MONITORING & WARNING SYSTEM

    RISK KNOWLEDGE

    People-centered Early Warning Systems

    For Weather, Sea-State & Tsunamis

    F:/yuzaimi/Desktop/BuoyNet.pptF:/yuzaimi/Desktop/Siren.pptF:/yuzaimi/Desktop/TidalNet.ppthttp://www.stuffintheair.com/radar-real-time-weather.html

  • Malaysian Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Since 2005

    TSUNAMI

    FLOOD

    SEVERE WEATHER

    FOREST FIRE

    VOLCANO

    SMS & Cell Broadcasting

    Fixed Lines Disaster Alert System

    Siren

    Printed Media

    TV & Radio

    MULTI-HAZARD

    EARLY WARNING

    CENTRE

    AT MMD

  • DISSEMINATION

    SMS & Emails

    TV Crawlers (Hotline between MMD & RTM)

    Mini TV broadcast studio at MMD

    Telefax

    Website

    Fixed Line Alert System (FLAS)

    Tsunami Sirens

  • WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM

    Data Dissemination

    Computer Processing

    Facilities and

    Forecasting Model

    Weather Forecast

    Warning

    Mass MediaGeneral PublicPublic Organizations

    Receive and Action

  • Ensemble prediction system

    Multi-model and single

    model ensembles

    Deteministic models

    Decision

    support

    system

    Decision support

    tools

    Assesments

    Observing

    system

    Satellite

    In situ

    Social

    decisions

    Economical

    decisions

    Environmental

    decisions

    Weather forecasts

    Data

    Data

    assimilation

    system

    Security

    decisions

    End-to-end Weather & Climate forecast system require decision support tools to enhance applications

  • Import

    ance

    Day Week Month Season Year

    Average Time Scale

    Thunderstorms

    Typhoon

    Tropical disturbances

    Intra-seasonal

    2-Week 3-Month

    El Nino/ La Nina

    Predictability

    of short &

    medium-

    range weather

    forecast

    Predictability

    of seasonal

    and yearly

    forecast

    Constraint: Short, Medium-range & Seasonal Predictibility

  • Future (

  • Tahap Semasa Keupayaan JMM Dalam Memberikan Perkhidmatan

  • Global Framework For Climate Services (GFCS)

  • 29

    Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

    Earthquakes & Tsunamis

  • EARTHQUAKES:

    MONITORING SEISMIC ACTIVITIES

    17 seismic stations

  • 31

    10 min

    Timeline

    TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

  • Coastal Points (99 points)

    - Bathymetry water depth ~ 1 m Forecast Points (99 points)

    - Bathymetry water depth ~ 50 m

    Tsunami Modeling & Database

    (Mw)

    6.5

    7.0

    7.5

    8.0

    8.5

    Depth (km)

    0

    20

    40

    60

  • MMD also monitor the sea level at 37 sites in the

    Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean

    MNTEWC

    TSUNAMIS: TIDE GAUGE

    FOR SEA LEVEL MONITORING

    17 Sites: transmission of

    data every 1 min.

  • MONITORING (COASTAL CAMERA)

    18 Sites

  • To improve weather & climate extremes, sea state and tsunami

    early warning services for societal well being, we need:

    Higher accuracy of weather & climate forecasts at local level;

    shorter timeline with accuracy of tsunami warning after

    earthquake occurrence;

    awareness programmes (drills, table=top exercises &

    awareness campaigns) for both tsunamis and weather

    extremes;

    better coordination between disaster management agencies;

    and

    Better risk assessments.

    Concluding Remarks

  • Thank You

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