eacc mozambique

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  • 1. M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY i Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeMOZAMBIQUE
  • 2. ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G EEACC Publications and Reports1. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report2. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Social Synthesis Report3. The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and EstimatesCountry Case Studies:1. Bangladesh: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change2. Bolivia: Adaptation to Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects3. Ethiopia : Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change4. Ghana: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change5. Mozambique: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change6. Samoa: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change7. Vietnam: Economics of Adaptation to Climate ChangeDiscussion Papers:1. Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries2. The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure3. Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change4. Costs of Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change5. Cost of Adapting Fisheries to Climate Change6. Costs of Adaptation Related to Industrial and Municipal Water Supply and Riverine Flood Protection7. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change-Ecosystem Services8. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Global Hydrology and Water Availability9. Climate Change Scenarios and Climate Data10. Economics of Coastal Zone Adaptation to Climate Change11. Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Human Health in Developing Countries12. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh13. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia14. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia15. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ghana16. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique17. Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam18. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro-Poor Adaptation Options19. Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Pro-Poor Adaptation: Capacity Development Manual
  • 3. M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY iEconomics of Adaptationto Climate ChangeMOZ AM BIQU E Ministry of Foreign Affairs Government of the Netherlands
  • 4. ii E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E 2010 The World Bank Group1818 H Street, NWWashington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.orgE-mail: feedback@worldbank.orgAll rights reserved.This volume is a product of the World Bank Group. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the dataincluded in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do notimply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries.RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONSThe material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permissionmay be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grantpermission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the CopyrightClearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470;Internet: www.copyright.com.All images The World Bank Photo Library, exceptPages 36, 58 and 68 ShutterstockPages xiii, xxii, 4 and 46 iStockphoto
  • 5. M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY iiiContentsAcronyms ixAcknowledgments xiExecutive Summary xiiiApproach xiiiAdaptation Options xixAdaptation priorities: local-level perspective xxiLessons and recommendations xxi1 Introduction 1Background 1Scope of the report and collaboration 12 Overview of the Mozambican economy 5Background 5Current growth policies 6Vulnerability to climate 73 Climate forecasts using four different General Circulation Model outputs 114 Agriculture 15Background 15Modeling the sectoral economic impacts 16Adaptation options 195 Roads 25Background 25Modeling the sectoral economic impacts 25Adaptation options 30
  • 6. iv E C O N O M I C S O F A D A P TAT I O N T O C L I M AT E C H A N G E6 Hydropower 37Background 37Modeling the sectoral economic impacts 38Adaptation options 437 Coastal Zone 47Background 47Modelling the Impact 48Adaptation Options 508 Cyclone assessment 59Background 59Modeling the impact 62Conclusion 669 Social dimensions of climate change 69Background 69Methodology 69Adaptation options 73Conclusion 7710 CGE Model description 79Model description 79Strategic options 82Adaptation Options 9011 Discussion 9712 References 100Annexes(available on line at www.worldbank.org/eacc)I. Social dimensionsII. River basin and hydro power modelingIII. The Comprehensive Mozambique Water Resource Model (CMWRM)IV. WEAP21 model descriptionV. Crop modelingVI. Detailed description of the CGE model
  • 7. M OZA M B I Q U E CO U N T RY ST U DY vFiguresES-1. Mozambique Wet and Dry Temperature in 2050 xvES-2. Mozambique Wet and Dry Precipitation in 2050 xviES-3. Climate Change Effects on Yield for All Major Crops xviES-4. Impact on HydropowerAnnual Generat