dynamic clouds and networks without infrastructure
DESCRIPTION
The internet will not scale to support >7Bn people and >50Bn things on line, but Clouds and Networks Without Infrastructure will, and they are neither singular nor static. Clouds are entirely dynamic and multi-modal with; public, private, personal, open, closed, government and commercial clouds that are fixed, mobile, long and short lived, permanent and transitory. In addition the new degrees of freedom that Clouds afford makes them inherently more secure and resilient than any network medium we have created before. But, not all clouds are equal, and neither is all data! The era of IT Departments providing centralised networking and security is drawing to a rapid close in the same way that sitting in front of a PC in an office all day is becoming unworkable. So, it is time to rethink what has to change in order to adapt to rapidly growing BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) and BMOB (Be My Own Boss) cultures. At the same time, ecological, social, commercial and technology demands are pushing toward more and smaller devices, the tagging and tracking of everything, whilst using less material and energy. This all demands more wireless and new modes of networking demanding more optical fibre especially in the last mile where Point to Point systems will replace the outmoded BPON and GPON technologies of the past. In this symmetric wide bandwidth future there is no place or part to plat by the old copper local loop technologies, and the mobile operators @ 3,4,5G will be further relegated to transporting < 1% of the total traffic of the future connected world. New species of WiFi and BlueTooth will emerge to dominate mobile connectivity and transport with the short range hops to a vastly increased number of fibre fed hot spots in room, on floor, in building, and on campus.TRANSCRIPT
DYNAMIC Clouds of
People & Things
Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk
ca-global.orgCOCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Outdated and outmodedA dying world being overtaken by new freedoms
Ineffective
ExpensiveSlow
Inefficient
Corporate
Process
PERSONAL DEVICES & NETWORKINGNew freedoms of choice, relationships, networks, actions
Greater creativity Faster response
WearablE Tech to come
Easy to predict but hard to fathom!
50% of users give up within 2 weeks
Sure to succeed: Bendy Phone , Smar t Jeweller y, Medical/Sensor Wear, +++ ??
Recent Fails: Smar t Watch ??
A technology from > 20 years ago…
NEW INDUSTRIAL MODELSPrinting of flexible electronics and batteriesColour programable Integrated auto repair
New industrial processes
3, 4D printing + programming of biological forms
Electronic design No assembly required
Networked distribution
No casting or machining> 300 superior parts are now printed
Better performance using less raw material and energy with a higher
recycling %
FRont line productionShipping des igns and not par ts
New industrial processesBio - NanoTech + Integral AI + AL + Adaptation
Open Design Open Hardware Open Distribution
Logistic processesExpensive, inefficient, damaging
Demands the economic tagging and tracking of things…
!
materials processing production
h a n d l i n g o w n e r s h i p
repurpose, recycle
We have to
engineer huge reductions in
material/energy waste
TECHNOLOGY NETWORKED SOCIETYNo acc ident bu t no t 100% c lear e i ther
Speed of
Change
Adaptability and
Flexibility
New Technology
Entries Competition
Growing
Global Market Threat
Ecological Humanitarian
Demands
BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social
Mobility BIG Data
SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIESDemands connected people & things
New economic thinking demands more than $$$ decisions - we should at least include ecological and societal impact…
…to stop producing more and more for the few and start providing sufficient for the many……
INTERNET ENERGY COST
Estimated @ 3 - 5% of global capacity
Raghavan and Ma 2011
Corporate Machines Personal Devices Networks Switches Support Routers Servers Admin
Overall energy/economic gain ~ 10%
INTERNET OF THINGS ENERGY COSTEstimated @ > 3000% of global capacity
Assuming we continue the same 3,4,5G, WiFi network strategy with mobiles, Fat Clients,
with configurations and operations for 7Bn people & >50Bn
things online
A SCALEABLE SOLUTION IS REQUIRED
Us ing sus ta inab le l e s s energy than today
Must extend to a l l peoples and th ings across the ent ire sur face of the p lanet as a n e s s e n t i a l p a r t of a green agenda that min imises g loba l waste of energy and mater ia ls in order to sat is fy a l l human demands and needs by
trans forming industr ia l economies and l iv ing…
EXPONENTIALsConfound people !
More data/information generated this year than in
the previous 5000…
….and next year and the year after, and…
Counterintuitive for decision makers, managers,
politicians
Baby ~ 239 sp l i ts Man ~ 244 sp l i ts
EXPONENTIALsThat build us !
WE DON’T GET scale
!
> 100 New Domains Registered > 100 New LinkedIn Accounts > 200 New Twitter Accounts >15k Mobile App Downloads > 14k New Adverts posted > 700k Internet Searches > 1k New Videos Posted > 1M FaceBook Updates > 7k Flkr Pic Uploads > 100k New Tweets > 200M eMails Sent > 400k Skype Calls !
> 20M Messages
> 20k Smart Phones Shipped > 7k Tablets Shipped
Internet ‘happenings’ by the minute !
NETWORK SCALEApproximations to reality !
Telegraph \ N
Telephone \ N2
Internet \ 2N
Clouds \ N1/2 - es t imate based on mul t ip le c louds !
No Inf ras t ructure Nets \ N0.1 - a f i r s t guess ! !
Based upon the average amount o f t ra f f i c generated by ’N’ s imi lar nodes extended to inc lude the aggregated energy consumpt ion wi th each
generat ion o f techno logy inc lud ing reduc ing w i re less span
c a u s a l i t yBeyond Serendipity !
I t i s imposs ib le to def ine the o r i g i n s o f a l l t h e d r i v i n g factors , but they are far more than chance and represent a g loba l need to ensure: !
- Susta inab i l i t y - Sur v i vab i l i t y - S tab i l i t y - Secur i t y
FUTURE PROJECTIONSExtremely varied!
An aggregation of Cisco, Intel, Oracle Gartner McKinsey A B I , B I I , I D C GSMA +++ follows
50 !
40 !
30 !
20 !
10 !
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9
Year
Human Population
Things on
LineBn
A mode
st (pe
ssimisti
c)
spread
of projec
tions
With the kind support of Lew Tucker, Cisco Systems, 2013
Aggregated PROJECTIONSUsing over 10 referenced citations
CLOUDS PLURALE v o l v i n g s p e c i e s
D e v i c e C l u s t e r D e s k Ta b l e R o o m H o m e O f f i c e B u i l d i n g C a m p u s
To w n C i t y R e g i o n C o u n t r y
C o m m e r c i a l G o v e r n m e n t B u s i n e s s D e f e n c e C h a r i t y P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e C l o s e d
S e c r e t C l o s e d O p e n + + + +
Tr a n s i t o r y M o b i l e F i x e d + + + +
D y n a m i c S t a t i c D e c o y R e a l + + +
Diverse/different/unpredictable routings, connections and increasingly hidden and disguised/distributed data & storage depth
Invisible C l o u d
Corporate/Private /Government
C l o u d
P u b l i c / O p e n C l o u d
Decoy C l o u d
Storage C l o u d
Back Up C l o u d
Corporate/Private /Government
C l o u d
HIDDEN DEPTH SECURITYDynamic Cloud to Cloud diversity
Reduced determinism Distributed Storage Different locations Multiple providers Many devices/OS Distributed data Config varieties Dynamic Apps Short sessions Data half life Transitory++
++++++ C l o u d
people and thingsGreater freedom and diversity
Behaviours & habits evolving Substantial cost savings
Obvious security risks Benefits understood
BYOD new norm More mobility New freedoms
Enhanced security options Need to share overrides all
Social net-working a vital tool Amplified creativity and flexibility Accelerating transient employments
Revitalising industry &economic growth
++++++ !
Things and thingsMeeting ecological & people needs
Old industry methods cannot do the job New technologies/techniques needed
Product/component tracking vital Minimal energy cycles need
Material waste necessary Maximal repurpose /reuse
Extreme recovery/recycle Enhanced security options Sufficient overrides luxury Global not local application
More global applicability Local creation & sourcing
Vastly reduced logistics
++++++ !
Connected on Off lineNot everything has to be globally accessible….or on-line all the time
People to people People to things Things to things
Local storage Presentations Synchronising Security scans Development
Production Packaging Assembly
Design
++++++ !
Device to DEVICEMeetings and file sharing
Container to Ship
Ultra-Secure
Data Transport = The Pocket !
No wires no fussGetting rid of the knitting
The only wiring used is to deliver power !
Operates on and off line for entertainment and for work
Device to PRODUCTMonitoring the in:out and effect
Device to DEVICEOff Line Medical Records
people to people
Augmented Reality ViewingCameras in the crowd covering every angle
Topping up atoms & bits
Service Info, Maps, Local Data, Music, Movies, Games, Advertising +++
3,4,5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems can…by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local/pertinent information !
vehicle to vehicleLow power, local, immediate
container to containerShip to shoreContainer
to ShipLow power, long life, self organising
Hostile environment, battery life, & capacity demands
preclude 3,4,5G mobile solutions, but wifi and /or BlueTooth can satisfy the requirements
container to container
Truck to 3GContainer
to Truck
Truck to truck static or on the move
Truck Fill: UK ~ 17% EU ~ 20% US ~ 22%
Estimated Global Logistic Losses ~ $2Tn
MASSIVE to MinusculeWireless nets are now predominantly local
1915 2015103
106
109
1012
103
1
10 –3 Ave
rage
Tra
nsm
itter
Pow
er
Tota
l of A
ll Tr
ansm
itter
s
TKg
g
W
network implicat ionsIt is impossible to beat the Laws of Physics
Maxwell’s Field Theory
Shannon Information Theory
Basic Geometry
Range Equation
More wireless nodesMeans far more optical fibre feeders
FTTProperty
FTTCampus
FTTStreet
FTTHome
FTTOffice
FTTRoom
WiFi >> 3,4G
PON >> BPON
PON >> GPON
PERSPECTIVESImportant changes
BPON GPON invented to save optical fibre use at a time when it cost 50c/m,
but now it costs <2c/m we can afford P2P fibre. It satisfies
all the equations of cost reduced complexity, reliability and future
proofing
WiFi ~ 97% net traffic
3,4G ~ 3% net traffic P2P PON
Cost/Benefit
GPON, BPON Cost/Benefit
Mobile nets are minor players when it comes to internet connectivity and capacity
THE FUTURE 10 - 30 years outDominated by wireless that is short range and low power
Supported by a massive optical fibre network in the local loop !
Hot Optical R&D Topics Wireless over optical fibre
THz & GHz wave generation Optical free space transmission
Network reliability & resilience Seamless handovers /transitions
All optical switching, processing, coding Wireless - Optical - Wireless translation
Transparency - irradiation of bands and channels
