dtc mission

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Jamie K. Wolff 1 , Louisa B. Nance 1 , Brad S. Ferrier 2 , Clifford F. Mass 3 , Barbara G. Brown 1 and Ying-Hwa Kuo 1 Joint 46 th CMOS/25 th WAF/21 st NWP AMS Conference May 29, 2012 Bridging the Valley of Death: Defining a process for transitioning promising new mesoscale innovations from research to operations 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research/Research Applications Laboratory and Developmental Testbed Center 2 National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center 3 University of Washington

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Bridging the Valley of Death: Defining a process for transitioning promising new mesoscale innovations from research to operations. Jamie K. Wolff 1 , Louisa B. Nance 1 , Brad S. Ferrier 2 , Clifford F. Mass 3 , Barbara G. Brown 1 and Ying- Hwa Kuo 1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: DTC Mission

Jamie K. Wolff1, Louisa B. Nance1, Brad S. Ferrier2, Clifford F. Mass3, Barbara G. Brown1 and Ying-Hwa Kuo1

Joint 46th CMOS/25th WAF/21st NWP AMS ConferenceMay 29, 2012

Bridging the Valley of Death:Defining a process for transitioning promising new mesoscale innovations from research to operations

1National Center for Atmospheric Research/Research Applications Laboratory and Developmental Testbed Center2National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center3University of Washington

Page 2: DTC Mission

DTC MissionThe fundamental purpose of the DTC is to facilitate the

interaction & transition of NWP technology between research & operations.

DTC facilitates:O2R transition by making the operational NWP systems available

to the research community & providing community user supportR2O transition by performing testing & evaluation of new NWP

innovations in a functionally similar operational environment over an extended period

Interaction between research & operational NWP communities through the organization of community workshops/meetings on important topics of interest to the NWP community & hosting a DTC Visitor Program

DTC strives to be an effective and efficient community facility for the transition of innovations in NWP between

research and operations.

Page 3: DTC Mission

Testing Protocol MotivationWide range of NWP science innovations under

development in the research communityTesting protocol imperative to advance new

innovations through the research to operations (R2O) process efficiently and effectively.Three stage process:

1)Proving ground for research community

2)Comprehensive T&E performed by the DTC

3)Pre-Implementation testing at Operational Centers

Page 4: DTC Mission

Testing Protocol – Stage IProving ground for research communityCode development; Initial stage of testingMesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)Communicate results to the DTC; Nominate for

Stage II testingContribution of new technique into WRF

repository encouragedWork with WRF Developers Committee (contact:

[email protected])Apply for DTC Visitor Program support (see:

http://www.dtcenter.org/visitors) =–

Page 5: DTC Mission

Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)Why: Assist the research community in efficiently

demonstrating the merits of a new developmentProvide a common framework for testing; allow for direct

comparisonsWhat: Mechanism to assist research community with

initial stage of testingProvide model input and observational datasets to utilize

for testingEstablish and publicize baseline results for select

operational modelsWhere: Hosted by the DTC; served through Repository

for Archiving, Managing and Accessing Diverse DAta (RAMADDA)

http://dtcenter.org/repository

Page 6: DTC Mission

RAMADDA View (http://dtcenter.org/repository)

Page 7: DTC Mission

MMET Cases Initial solicitation of cases from DTC Science Advisory Board

Members and Physics Workshop Participants – great response and enthusiasm towards endeavor

Target cases during initial year20090228 – Mid-Atlantic snow storm where North American

Mesoscale (NAM) model produced high QPF shifted too far north20090311 – High dew point predictions by NAM over the upper

Midwest and in areas of snow20091007 –High-Resolution Window (HIRESW) runs

underperformed compared to coarser NAM model20091217 – “Snowapocalypse ‘09”: NAM produced high QPF

over mid-Atlantic, lack of cessation of precipitation associated with decreasing cloud top over eastern North Carolina

20100428-0504 – Historic Tennessee flooding associated with an atmospheric river event

20110518-26 – Extended period of severe weather outbreak covering much of the mid-west and into the eastern states later in the period

20111128 – Cutoff low over SW US; NAM had difficulties throughout the winter of breaking down cutoff lows and progressing them eastward

20120203-05 – Snow storm over Colorado, Nebraska, etc.; NAM predicted too little precipitation in the warm sector and too much snow north of front (persistent bias)

Page 8: DTC Mission

“Snowpocalypse 2009”Nor’easter that became a major snowstorm for the East

Coast of the U.S with record-breaking snowfall totals for several major cities, including D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia.MMET case study for 20091217 12 UTC out to 84 hours

Page 9: DTC Mission

May 21-26, 2011 Tornado OutbreakDeadly outbreak across the Midwest and

Southern regions of the U.S., including the Joplin tornado (May 22) and two “High Risk” days (May 24-25)Extended time period included in MMET to 20110518-26 in order to capture additional weaker warm-season convection prior to outbreak

Confirmed TornadoesTotal EF0 EF1 EF2 EF3 EF4 EF5242 108 90 31 8 3 2

Page 10: DTC Mission

Testing Protocol – Stage IIComprehensive T&E performed by the DTCMaintain a neutral position in

order to provide a trusted, unbiased assessment

Conduct comprehensive testing for a broad range of weather regimesRun end-to-end system composed

of community codesFunctionally similar to operational

environmentEvaluate based on extensive

objective verification statisticsTraditional scoresNew, relevant verification

techniques (e.g., spatial methods)Statistical significance assessment

Page 11: DTC Mission

Testing Protocol – Stage IIIPre-Implementation testing at Operational Centers

Ultimate decision to proceed with pre-implementation testing is made by the Operational Centers and is based on a variety of factors, including:Forecast performanceComputational requirements

Testing specifics depend on the target production configuration, but may include:Complex data assimilation testingInitial condition diversity testing for ensemble

members

Page 12: DTC Mission

ConclusionEstablish data sets for nine initial MMET casesPublicize more information on R2O testing

protocol and MMET at:http://dtcenter.org/eval/mmet

Contact information for DTC MMET TeamJamie Wolff [email protected] Michelle Harrold [email protected] Tara Jensen [email protected] Tricia Slovacek [email protected]

Acknowledgements: The DTC is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Air Force Weather Agency, and the National Center for Atmospheric

Science (NCAR). NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.