dsmith - comparative study of pmfs and us military forces
TRANSCRIPT
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A Comparative Study of Privatized Military Firms and U.S. Military Forces In Iraq – Basrah & Thi-‐Qar
Debbie Smith * P.W. Singer – “Corporate Warriors: The Rise of the Privatized military Industry and Its RamiAications for International Security”
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Question: From 2004-‐2009, were PMFs more or less effective than U.S. Military Forces at deterring incidences of insurgent attacks (IEDs) in Iraq, speciAically Basrah and Thi-‐Qar? Hypothesis: PMFs more effective than U.S. Military Forces due to 4 conditions Cases: Iraq -‐ Basrah & Thi-‐Qar (2004-‐2009)
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Prior Research P.W. Singer & PMFs
• Privatized Military Firms (PMFs): “proAit-‐driven organizations that provide professional services linked to warfare”
• Potential effects of PMFs on the future of IR: • Contractual dilemmas between client & PMFs • Marketization & changes in the balance of power • Adds alternative actors into policymaking process
• BUT all depends on the type of PMF
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From 2004-‐2009, were PMFs more or less effective than U.S. Military Forces at deterring incidences of insurgent attacks (IEDs) in Iraq, speciAically Basrah and Thi-‐Qar? • Hypothesis: PMFs were more effective than U.S. Military Forces due to: d
• Competition within global market & proAit-‐driven • Recruit speciAically for operations & provide specialized, prerequisite training
• Ability to utilize corporate Ainancing • Existence of legal loopholes
Sources: P.W. Singer -‐ “Corporate Warriors: The Rise of the Privatized military Industry and Its RamiAications for International Security”
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Regions of Iraq & IED attacks
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Variables: • Incidences of IEDs (2004 – 2009)
• Population • Ethnic makeup • Presence of PMF vs U.S. Military Forces
Data: Iraq War Logs -‐ provide GPS coordinates of IEDs in Iraq from 2004 – 2009
Matched Study: • Basrah • Thi-‐Qar
Method
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Basrah & Thi-‐Qar
Sources: UNHCR Governorate Assessment Report (2006) Iraq War Logs
Region Population (2006)
Sunni Shiite Kurdish Other U.S. Military Forces PMFs
Basrah 1.8 million Y Y *
Thi-‐Qar 1.5 million Y Y
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IED Attacks in Basrah & Thi-‐Qar 01/2004 – 12/2009
Security responsibility shifted over to Iraqi Security Forces (ISF): d
* Basrah – Dec. 2007 * Thi-‐Qar – Sept. 2006, although U.S. Military Forces did not fully withdraw until 2011
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Tentative Empirical Conclusions, Criticisms & Future Research • Disproved • Surface Level Correlation: With presence of U.S. Military Forces, we see lesser incidences of IEDs than with presence of PMFs
• * Need statistical analysis (signiAicance)
• Criticisms: • Potential confounding variables in matching • Lack of complete, ofAicial data
• Future Research: • Combine multiple variables (i.e. HR Abuses, Economic Development, Coalition Forces, etc.)
• Compare varying types of PMFs • Cost-‐efAiciency analysis