drought preparedness, mitigation and response - … · drought preparedness, mitigation and...

Drought Preparedness,

Mitigation and Response Mohamed Bazza, PhD

Land and Water Division

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN

Rome

In collaboration with

The National Drought Mitigation Center

Lincoln, Nebraska

USA

WMO, UNCCD, FAO, UN-Water - Europe Regional Workshop on National Drought Management

Policies. 9-11 July 2013, Bucharest, Romania

http://drought.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Background

is defined as actions taken by individual citizens,

industry, government, and others before drought

occurs to mitigate impacts and conflicts arising from

drought.

The Cycle of Disaster Management

Typology of drought risk management measures

(UN/ISDR Terminology of Disaster Risk Reduction - http://www.unisdr.org/)

Drought

Preparedness

Drought

Mitigation Drought

Response

Drought

Recovery



Drought

Preparedness

established policies and specified plans and

activities taken before drought to prepare people

and enhance institutional and coping capacities, to

forecast or warn of approaching dangers, and to

ensure coordinated and effective response in a

drought situation (contingency planning)



Drought

Mitigation

any structural/physical measures (e.g.,

appropriate crops, dams, engineering projects)

or non-structural measures (e.g., policies,

awareness, knowledge development, public

commitment, and operating practices)

undertaken to limit the adverse impacts of

drought

Drought

Response

efforts such as the provision of assistance or

intervention during or immediately after a

drought disaster to meet the life preservation

and basic subsistence needs of those people

affected. It can be of an immediate, short-term,

or protracted duration



Drought

Recovery

decisions and actions taken after a drought

with a view to restoring or improving the pre-

drought living conditions of the stricken

community, while encouraging and facilitating

necessary adjustments to reduce drought risk





Drought

Preparedness

Drought

Mitigation Drought

Response

Drought

Recovery

Drought Mitigation and Response

(and Recovery)

Components of Drought Plans

• Monitoring, early warning and information delivery systems

– Integrated monitoring of key indicators

– Use of appropriate indices

– Development/delivery of information and decision-support tools

• Risk and impact assessment

– Conduct of risk/vulnerability assessments

– Monitoring/archiving of impacts

• Mitigation and response

– Proactive measures to increase coping capacity

Vulnerability Analysis

• Impact Assessment

– Social

– Environmental

– Economic

• Causal Assessment

• Temporal Trends

Vulnerability to drought

(After Lulian Florin Vladu, UNFCCC, 2006)

Main vulenarble sectors to drought

0

20

40

60

80

100A

griculture

and F

ood

Security

Wate

r

Resourc

es

Marine

Ecosyste

ms

Tere

str

ial

Ecosyste

ms

Hum

an

Health

Oth

er

(%)

Vulnerability Assessment

Before Drought

Objective: Determine extent of vulnerability (or of

resilience) of a production system in case drought

occurs

Impact Evaluation

During but usually after Drought

Objective: Determine the impacts or losses incurred by

drought episode

Method and parameters are very much the same

Reference (for comparison purposes)

Drought vulnerability/impacts are compared to

reference years, such as:

• Previous year/growing season,

• Normal or average year,

• Last drought episode

• Record years (worst and/or best in recent past or in

given time periods).

Checklist of Historical, Current,

and Potential Drought Impacts

H=Historical C=Current P=Potential

Costs and losses to agricultural producers

Annual and perennial crop losses

Damage to crop quality

Income loss for farmers due to reduced crop yields

Reduced productivity of cropland

Insect infestation

Plant disease

Wildlife damage to crops

Increased irrigation costs

Cost of new or supplemental water resources

H C P

Economic

1.Climate

• Precipitation deficit (overall, during specific stages of

crop growth season, by location)

• Precipitation Index

• Temperature (average, maximum, minimum,

amplitude)

• Evapotranspiration

• Frost and other hazards (dry wind, sandstorm, …)

• Soil Moisture

Evaluation Parameters

2. Water Resources

• Reduction in runoff, streamflow/river flow, spring

discharge, temporary rivers, snowmelt, …

• Water Storage (% reservoir filled)

• Groundwater recharge

• Wells (discharge reduction, number (%) of dried wells,

drawdown)

• Water allocation/use by sector (% reduction)

• Wetlands hydrological capacities


3. Agriculture

• Cropped area (statistics by crop)

• Cultivation date

• Irrigated, rainfed areas

• Failures/delays in crop germination, plant density, number of tillers

• Onset of growth phases/stages

• NDVI

• Specific circumstances (flower loss, …)

• Crop yield (irrigated and rainfed, per unit area, total)

• Crop loss (annual, perennial; rainfed, irrigated)

• Damage to quality of produce

• Other products (fodder, straw, etc.)


Livestock, Forests and Rangelands

• Reduction in range and pasture lands production and quality

• Estimate of quantity or supportive capacity per unit area, vegetative

cover, dominant species/quality

• Reduction in livestock (resulting from deaths, sale, slaughter, etc.)

• Reduction in birth rate, death of newly born animals

• Reduction in forest products (timber, charcoal, wood, …)

• Fires, other drought associated hazards


Economic Impacts (macro and micro)

• Agricultural and national GDP reduction

• Insurance paid to farmers

• Relief/Emergency costs

• Unpaid debts, debt relief

• Agricultural import/export balance

• Cost of food needs import

• Agriculture revenue per unit area and household income

• Purchasing power of rural households


Social Impacts

• Population migration

• Diseases

• Food production/insecurity, hunger, famine

• Unemployment

• Conflicts, social unrest

• Incidence of theft, racketeering, aggressions


Environmental Impacts

• Dried riverbeds and natural aqua-systems

• Biological degradation

• Wildlife

• Soil and water salinization

• Soil degradation (erosion, organic matter/fertility reduction,

etc.)

• Extinct or threatened fauna and flora species

• Soil and water pollution

• Living conditions of rural areas and other vulnerable groups

(nomads)


Examples of Indirect Impacts:

• Reduced income for agribusiness

• Increased prices of food and timber

• Reduced tax revenues (because of low expenditures)

• Reduced number of tourists

Indirect impacts are complex and not easily quantifiable

Other Sectors and Indirect Impacts

Health, tourism, etc.

Impact Assessment by Subcommittees of the Risk

Management Committee

e.g. 1

– Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife

– Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy

e.g. 2

– Agriculture

– Drinking Water, Health, and Energy

– Wildlife and Wildfire

– Tourism and Economic Impact

Steps:

1. Identify impacts of recent/historical droughts

2. Identify drought impact trends

3. Prioritize impacts to address

4. Identify mitigation actions that could reduce impacts (short vs. long

term)

5. Identify triggers to phase in and phase out actions during drought

onset or termination

6. Identify agencies and organizations to develop and implement

actions

Risk Assessment Methodology

Risk Management Options : List of measures and actions to take proactively

to increase coping capacity and eliminate or reduce impacts

Prioritized on the basis of agreed criteria (for Drought Task Force)

Prepared by a “Risk Management Committee”

Risk Management options can be split into three categories, as follows:

Category Mitigation (long-

term)

Mitigation (short-

term)

Response

(and Recovery)

Objective resilience building drought mitigation Impact Reduction

Implementation

framework

regular develop.

programs

drought plan Response within

drought plan

Implement. time continuous before, during, after

drought

during, after

drought

Risk Assessment Outputs

Normal Drought Normal

Drought Plan

Foundation for building resilience to drought, BUT not complete shield

risk

manageme

nt

measures

Long-Term

Mitigation

Short-term

Mitigation

Response

Long-Term

Short-term

Response

Drought Plan

Scale: f(national, regional, district, local, …)

Plan likely to change from one drought to another

Normal Drought Normal

I. Long-term

Re-visiting national policies/strategies to cater for drought preparedness

1. Water Resources

- Enhancing supply

storage capacity increase

water transfers

locating new potential resources

aqueducts and canals

groundwater recharge

small scale water collection/harvesting

adjusting legal and institutional framework

artificial precipitation

desalination of brackish & saline water

treatment & reuse of wastewater/recycling

etc.

Options for drought preparedness

plan/Strategy


plan/Strategy

I. Long-term


1. Water Resources

- Improving demand management (in all sectors/uses)

Reducing use

Reducing losses

Reviewing water allocation

Monitoring, metering, forecasting

Conjunctive use (surface-groundwater)

Reviewing education curricula

Adopting/reviewing water tariffs

Adjusting legal & institutional framework

Voluntary insurance, pricing and economic incentives

Etc.


plan/Strategy

I. Long-term


2. Agriculture

- Agric. water management (complying with water resources strategy/plan)

• Irrigation expansion if/where possible

• Improving demand management (more efficient systems)

water loss reduction

irrig. scheme modernization/ conversion to more efficient systems

shift to less water-demanding crops and cropping systems

research of drought tolerant crops/species/genotypes

adjusting cropping calendars to avoid heat stress

use of non-conventional water resources

deficit irrigation, supplementary irrigation

conjunctive use of surface and groundwater

soil water conservation practices

adopting/reviewing water tariffs

etc.


plan/Strategy

I. Long-term

Re-visiting national policies/strategies to cater for drought

preparedness

2. Agriculture

- Crop production

• Breeding for drought tolerance species & adaptation to short season

• Cultural practices and techniques for conservation agriculture:

Proper fertilization

No-till/reduced tillage systems

Crop rotation/cropping systems

Seeding rate/density

Weeding/adapted pest management

Mulching/adapted soil preparation

Strip farming

Etc.


plan/Strategy

I. Long-term

Re-visiting national policies/strategies to cater for drought

preparedness

2. Agriculture

- Livestock

Drinking supplies

Balancing livestock in irrigated areas

Managing pasture and range supportive capacity

Use of indigenous breeds of feed and fodder

Genotypes of mammals / low water use

Early information for pastoralists

Forage reserves

Non conventional fodder sources

etc.


plan/Strategy

I. Long-term


3. Other sectors

- Municipal water

- Health

- Food security

- Energy

- Transportation

- Tourism/Recreation

- Industry

- Forest/rangeland fires

- Environment

- Ecosystem services

- etc


plan/Strategy

II. Short-term measures

1. Water

- Supply augmentation (all/specified sectors)

Mixing fresh & low quality waters

Exploiting high-cost waters

Adjusting legal and institutional framework

Locating new standby resources (for emergency)

Providing permits to exploit additional resources

Providing drilling equipment

etc.


plan/Strategy


1. Water

- Demand management (all/specified sectors)

Restricting agric. uses (rationing, subjecting certain crops to stress, …)

Restricting municipal uses (lawn irrigation, …)

Reviewing operations of reservoirs

Diverting water from given uses

Over-drafting aquifers (temporarily)

Reviewing water tariffs

Rationing water supply

Sensitising and awareness campaign

Adjusting legal and institutional framework

Negotiating transfer between sectors

Dual distribution networks for drinking water supply

Adopting carry-over storage

Conjunctive use

etc.


plan/Strategy


1. Water

- Measures other than supply and demand

Temporary reallocation of water (on basis of assigned use priority)

Decreasing transport and distribution costs

Banning/restricting uses

Providing emergency supplies

Elaborating set-aside regulations

Inventory private wells, negotiate purchase of water rights for public use

Elaborate regulations on water markets

Assess vulnerability & advise water users

Elaborate alert procedures

etc.

Drought levels and water

mitigation/responses

• Incipient : Monitoring and public education

• Moderate: Voluntary reduction in water use

• Severe : Voluntary/mandatory water use restrictions

• Extreme: Mandatory water use restrictions


plan/Strategy


2. Agriculture

– Crop Production

Supplementary irrigation where water can be mobilized and made

available on short-term basis

Soil water conservation practices

Early warning, information and advice to farmers

Review of fertilization program

Soil mulching and crop shading

Reducing crop density

Weeding

etc.


plan/Strategy


2. Agriculture

– Livestock, range and pasture lands

Early warning / advice to herders

Destocking / incentives for owners to reduce

Review available feed and reduce animal numbers

Livestock transfer where/when possible

Watering points/ water hauling sources

Locating potential sites of water for emergency

Constituting feed stocks

Adjusting water salinity to tolerable levels

Rapid inventory of grazing potential

Protective (natural) shelters

Alternative feed (by-products, less and un-palatable shrubs, …)

Supplementary, substitute feeds

Etc.


plan/Strategy

III. Response and Recovery

Response options often depend on level of country development

- Drinking water supply (humans, livestock, wildlife)

- Insurance compensation

- Public aid to compensate loss of revenue

- Tax relief (reduction or delay of payment deadline)

- Safety nets

- Rehabilitation/recovery programs

- Food programs

- Feed programs

- Fire control programs

- Resolving conflicts

- Postponing payment of credits

- Implement set-aside regulations

- Etc.

Response as integral part of

drought risk management plan

- Public aid to compensate loss of revenue

- Food programs

- Feed programs

- Rehabilitation/Recovery programs (not always foreseeable

and planned)

- Etc.

In-kind contribution of beneficiaries, often if the form of work, are used to

implement development programs that have been planned during the

preparedness phase.

Ready to implement programs included in drought plan

e.g. food for work to be used for building a community water reservoir.

Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies done, execution plan ready, work

can start at any time.

Planned drought mitigation and

response options

Risk Assessment Committee prioritizes all options based on

agreed criteria (vulnerability, cost, etc.)

Scale (national, regional, local, specific groups, etc.)

Drought Task Force selects options to be included in drought plan

Time-bound implementation plan, based on indices/triggers from

Monitoring and Early Warning

Indicators & Indices/Triggers

• Indicators: Variables to describe drought conditions.

Examples: precipitation, streamflow, groundwater, reservoir levels, soil moisture, SPI …

• Indices/Triggers: Specific values of the indicator that initiate and terminate each level of a drought plan, and associated management responses.

Example: precipitation below the 5th percentile for

two consecutive months = Level 4 Drought.


response options

Time during normal conditions

Ind

icato

rs T

rigg

ers A

ction

s

I-1

I-2

I-3

I-4

I-3

Level 1 (water level in wells 100 m)

Level 2 (water level in wells from 100 to 200 m)

Level 3 (water level in wells from 200 to 300 m)

Level 4 (water level in wells 300 m)

Level 2

Action 1

Action 2

Action 3

Action 4

Consider Level 2 ; ground

water level of well x in zone y

drops below 100 m

(Moderate drought)

Consider Action 1: Ban watering lawn

Consider Action 2: Reuse of treated wastewater for orchards

Consider Action 3: inform livestock owners to destock by 50%

Consider I-3 is groundwater

level

Example


response options

Time during normal conditions

Ind

icato

rs T

rigg

ers A

ction

s

I-1

I-2

I-3

I-4

I-1

Level 1 (SPI 0.0 to -0.99)

Level 2 (SPI -1.0 to -1.49)

Level 3 (SPI -1.5 to -1.99)

Level 4 (SPI -2.0)

Level 2

Action 1

Action 2

Action 3

Consider Level 2 ; SPI = -1.25

(Moderate drought)

Consider Action 1: Ban watering lawns

Consider Action 2: Dig extra wells for livestock and wildlife in area

Consider Action 3: Reduce irrigation of annual crops by 50%

Consider I-1 is SPI

Another example

Impacts Actions Agencies Triggers

Identify and

prioritize What can be done? Indices or indicators Who is responsible?

Drought Preparedness

Institutional

Coordination

Methodologies

and Tools

Operational

Arrangements,

Management

Public review

& Evaluation

Drought

Preparedness

Pre-, During and Post

Drought Planning

Drought

Characterization

Monitoring and

Early Warning

Vulnerability

Profiling and

Impact Assessment

Mitigation and

Response Options

Drought Plan

Organizational

Frameworks

Policies, momentum

Drought Task Force

Monitoring

Committee

Risk Assessment

Committee

Working Groups

Assessment Reports

Situation Reports

Drought Plan Organizational

Structure

Institutional and Operational

Arrangements of a Drought Plan

• National Drought Task Force

• Monitoring and Early Warning Committee

• Risk Assessment Committee

• (Planning, Mitigation and Response Committee)

• (Drought Information and Communication System)

Drought Task Force

• Nominated by a key political leader

Mandate:

- subject matter specialists representatives of stakeholders in the

different committees

- supervise, coordinate plan development and committees

- Manage drought information and communication for permanent

public awareness and information of decision makers.

- During times of drought, when plan is activated, coordinate

actions, oversee implementation of mitigation and response

programs, and make policy recommendations to appropriate political

leadership

Drought Task Force

Composition

High level Senior Officials representatives of:

• Key line ministries/economic sectors dealing with policy issues, decision making and operational management of drought

• Institutions and civil society involved in drought management

Should reflect multidisciplinary nature of drought and its impacts as

well as political and institutional infrastructure

include institutions where relevant expertise is available

Environmental and public interest groups and private sector can

also be included, as appropriate

Monitoring and Early

Warning Committee

Mandate:

• Provide timely and reliable data and information for proactive drought management.

• Provide situation reports on drought status and interact with other committees. Composition: Subject matter specialists involved in drought monitoring (climate and water) and early warning, representatives of key line ministries dealing with policy issues and operational management of drought

• Committee meets regularly, especially in advance of peak demand season,

and reports to DTF.

• Chairman of MEWS Committee is member of DTF and reports to it.

• Sub-committees as relevant

Risk Assessment Committee

Mandate:

• Develop vulnerability and impact assessment methodologies and tools

• Assess drought vulnerability, impacts and management capacity

• Provide assessment reports to DTF Composition:

Subject matter specialists of economic sectors, social groups and

ecosystems at risk from drought, including key line ministries dealing with

policy issues and operational management of drought

• May have several working groups depending on area, number of

affected sectors, complexity of the economy, etc.

• Committee chairperson should be a member of DTF and reports to it.

Drought Planning, Mitigation

and Response Committee

Mandate:

• Oversee and coordinate development of drought plan

• Oversee and coordinate implementation of drought plan Composition:

Could be the DTF itself or separate, in which case:

Subject matter specialists of economic sectors responsible of field

implementation and operational management of drought,

representatives of local communities as well as NGOs and CSOs

dealing with drought issues

• May have several working groups by region.

• Committee chairperson should be member of DTF and reports to it.

Drought Information and

Communication System/Strategy

Role of communication:

• Communication and information flow between the different

committees and the different stakeholders to ensure effective

planning and implementation

• Coordination between committees, agencies, officials and other

stakeholders

• Information of decision-makers

• Information, education and feedback provision mechanisms

• Promotion of community/public awareness and collaboration

• Open a dialogue with, and empowerment of vulnerable groups

to identify problems, articulate their needs and take up informed

action

Managed by DTF or separate committee

Thank you

drought preparedness, mitigation and response - … · drought preparedness, mitigation and...

Documents