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DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN

12th August 2015

AIR TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WATER BALANCE

Figures in this section present anomalies of the average air temperature and accumulated

water balance and classified values of average air temperature and water balance in

percentile classes for 60-days period from 10th

June to 8th

August 2015.

AVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (°C)

10th

JUNE – 8th

AUGUST 2015

AVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE

CLASSES

10th

JUNE – 8th

AUGUST 2015

Figure of average air temperature anomaly (left figure above) showed above average

temperatures in 60-days time period from 10th

June to 8th

August in major part of Balkan

HOT SPOT

Figure present accumulated water balance anomaly

from 1st April to 8

th August. Water balance in

Balkan Peninsula, with exception of Greece, was

classified in the 30 % of the driest years in record.

Water balance anomalies in these dry areas were up

to 240 mm below the long-term average. Area of

nort-eastern Romania and northern Moldova stand

out with values classified in the 5 % of the driest

years in record. Dry conditions were detected also in

parts of eastern Turkey. Meanwhile Greece and

whole western Turkey recorded wetter situation than

normal. In major part of western Turkey water

balance surplus were classified in the 5 % of the

wettest years in record.

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Peninsula. Deviations of average air temperatures in major part of Slovenia, Hungary,

Croatia, western Romania, northern Serbia, western Bosnia and Herzegovina, majority of

Montenegro and northern Albania were up to 1.5 °C above the average. Negative anomalies

were detected in central and southern Greece, up to 1 °C below the normal values. In majority

of Balkan Peninsula average air temperatures were classified in 30 % of the warmest years in

record (right figure above).

Majority of the Peninsula faced with extreme high air temperatures from mid of July nearly

until the end of July. During the heatwave red alert was declared for a few days in Slovenia,

Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro due to the extreme high

air temperatures. In some places absolute maximum air temperature records were detected.

Maximum air temperatures exceeded 36 °C. The highest air temperatures in Croatia were

above 39 °C, in Slovenia and Hungary above 37 °C, in Serbia above 38 °C. In Mostar in

Bosnia and Herzegovina the highest recorded air temperature was 42 °C. Podgorica in

Montenegro was hit by the highest air temperature 41.5 °C and at the warmest night

temperature did not fall below 30 °C. Another heatwave in the northern Balkan Peninsula

began in the first days of August.

Air temperatures during the time period under consideration were in major part of Turkey

around long-term average. In the south were colder, up to 1.5 °C, meanwhile in the east, in

Eastern Anatolia Region, were warmer for about 1.5 °C. In the far east air temperatures also

exceeded average values for 2 °C and air temperatures were classified in the 5 % of the

warmest years in the record.

ACCUMULATED WATER BALANCE ANOMALY

(mm)

10th

JUNE – 8th

AUGUST 2015

ACCUMULATED WATER BALANCE PERCENTILE

CLASSES

10th

JUNE – 8th

AUGUST 2015

Balkan Peninsula was in 60-days period from 10th

June to 8th

August divided in two parts

according to the water balance, drier northern part and wetter southern part. Water balance

deficits were in eastern Slovenia, central and southern Hungary, major part of Serbia and in

northern Bulgaria up to 90 mm, in north-western Hungary, north-western and eastern Croatia,

northern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in majority of Romania and in the north of Moldova

up to 150 mm below the long-term average. At the south of the Peninsula water surpluses

were at continent mainly up to 90 mm and at Peloponnesus 180 mm above the average values.

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Water balance situation in Turkey was similar to those from past month. Water balance values

in major part of western, central and southern part of Turkey were classified in the 5 % of the

wettest years in the record. Water surpluses were mainly up to 60 mm, in parts even larger.

Dry areas were detected in the west of Eastern Anatolia Region and in central part of

Mediterranean Region where water deficits were up to 90 mm.

STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

The drought situation with regard to the precipitation accumulation is presented by

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI calculation is based on the distribution of

precipitation over long time periods (30 years, in our case long-term average 1961–1990 was

used). The SPI can be calculated at various time scales which reflect the impact of the

drought on the availability of water resources. The long term precipitation record is fit to a

probability distribution, which is then normalised so that the mean (average) SPI for any

place and time period is zero. SPI values above zero indicate wetter periods and values less

than zero indicate drier periods. Only the dry part of the extreme anomalies is presented on

the maps.

Standardized precipitation index for July (left figure) showed extreme lack of precipitation in

central part of Balkan Peninsula and in northern part of Turkey. Lack of rain in whole

northern part of Peninsula coincided last month with extreme high air temperatures. Moderate

and extreme drought conditions due to the SPI were presented from Moldova in the east, in

some areas in Hungary in the north, continental part of Croatia and parts in Bosnia and

Herzegovina in the west and parts of the countries which border southern Serbia; Bulgaria,

FYRO Macedonia, Albania and Montenegro. The other isolated dry areas were at the east of

Bulgaria, at the Black Sea coast, through the European part of Turkey to the northern Turkey.

SPI for 3 months, from May to July (right figure), showed larger very dry area in eastern

Romania and in Moldova. Another dry area was detected from eastern Hungary in the north to

the western Romania at the east, through Serbia to the southern Bosnia and Herzegovina and

Montenegro at the west and northern Albania and northern FYRO Macedonia at the south.

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Milder lack of rain was in belt from western Slovenia to the north-western Croatia and in

some isolated areas in north-eastern Turkey.

REMOTE SENSING – FRACTION OF VEGETATION COVER

Different surfaces have different reflectance spectra. This feature is used in vegetation

monitoring with remote sensing, which provides the best view on vegetation changes over a

wide range of temporal scales over large areas. Vegetation indices are dimensionless

measures and combine information from different channels. For generation of vegetation

indices three channels are used: 0.6 µm (visible part of the reflectance spectrum), 0.8 µm

(near infrared part) and 1.6 µm (middle infrared part). One of the vegetation indices that

have proved to react well in dry conditions is FVC – fraction of vegetation cover. It shows

fraction of the total pixel area that is covered by green vegetation. FVC is relevant for

agriculture, forestry, environmental management and land use, hydrology, natural hazards

monitoring, drought conditions … Values varies according to the vegetation stage and of

course to the damages of possible natural disasters as drought, floods, frost … FVC values

are lower at the beginning of the growth season, the highest at the full vegetation

development and then FVC slowly dropped with vegetation senescence. Line shape depends

on sort of the vegetation.

Graphs below present the vegetation situation recorded on 9th

August in some regions in

some south-eastern Europe. FVC values for year 2015 are presented as green line. Graphs

also include reference line (2007–2014) in black, and lines in red (year 2013), in orange (year

2007, for Slovenia year 2006) for comparison.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA)

Region Lijevče polje – Laktaši Bijeljina

Trebinje

High air temperatures and lack of rain reflected

in descending FVC index in chosen three

locations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. FVC

values in Laktaši and Bijeljina were at the

beginning of July near the average values and in

Trebinje for about 5 % above the average.

During July FVC rapidly fall, up to 15 % in one

month. In first decade of August FVC were

deep below the average in Laktaši in the north

and Bijeljina in the east of the country and approached normal values in Trebinje in the south.

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MONTENEGRO – Podgorica

Old vineyards at the location of remote sensing

were in this season replaced by new one. This is

the reason of the low FVC values at the

beginning of the season. Reason of the rapidly

descending of the FVC values in July was heat

wave with extreme high air temperatures at day

and night. Vegetation were in drought and heat

stress. FYRO MACEDONIA

Tikveš Region – Kavadarci Ovče Pole Region – Lozovo

FVC values which represent vineyard vegetation in the south-east of the country (Tikveš Region)

and wheat development in Ovče Pole Region were since last reporting above the average values

but have descended all the time, following the average line.

REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

Smederevsko vinogorje – Malo Orasje Vršacko vinogorje – Veliko Središte

Descending of FVC values at the chosen locations in July and at the beginning of August were

faster than reference line. FVC values which represent vineyard development in central and

eastern part of the country dropped below the average in first decade of July in Smederevsko

vinogorje and in third decade of July in Vršacko vinogorje. FVC was in first days of August for

about 7 % below the average in Smederevsko vinogorje and slightly below the average in Vršacko

vinogorje.

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SLOVENIA

Prekmurje Region – Murska Sobota

Third and start of the fourth heat wave in this

year’s summer lowered FVC in July and August

below the average values and it still descending.

FVC is for about 7 % below the average in the

first decade of August.

ROMANIA

Bucovina

Bucovina is the region in north-eastern

Romania where rain deficit is present from the

start of the vegetation season. FVC values have

been below the average for the whole season.

Values are more or less constant from

beginning of June until now and are for about

15 % below the average.

Figure below shows anomaly of accumulated monthly FVC in comparison with past eight

years (2007–2014) and is used experimentally.

from 26th

June to 25th

July 2015

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from 11th

July to 9th

August 2015

Fraction of vegetation cover index showed anomalies in areas in eastern Hungary, north-

eastern Serbia, western and eastern Romania and northern Moldova in first decade of July.

FVC intensified during the July and at the beginning of August. A lot of new scattered areas

arose in the whole northern part of Balkan Peninsula.

Larger deviation detected in the eastern part of the Black Sea Region in Turkey is probably

consequence of the last year’s frost which impacted hazelnut trees.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/crunch-time-as-threat-to-turkey-s-

hazlenut-harvest-has-wider-impact-1.2155853

IMPACT REPORTS

Heat and drought stress on crops caused by extreme high air temperatures, tropical nights and

lack of rain were detected in second half of July in Balkan Peninsula.

Reports from Romania describe the most difficult situation due to drought in north-eastern

part of the country, where wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflowers yields are expected to be

lower compared to those in 2014. There are also reports about Danube’s water discharge

down to half its usual average.

http://www.romania-insider.com/drought-destroys-romanias-harvests/153515/

http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2015/08/04/379708/romanian-farm-losses-at-2bn-euros-from-

drought-associations.html

http://www.rri.ro/en_gb/the_effects_of_drought_in_romania-2534812

A drought situation is also reported from Moldova, where many rivers have low flows after

weeks of heat. Yellow flag for hydrological drought is declared until mid of August. Due to

the unfavorable conditions in agriculture grain maize yield in Moldova is expected to be 50 %

lower compared to last year due to severe drought. The farmers also lost pasture feed

capability.

http://www.trm.md/en/social/seceta-a-pus-stapanire-pe-moldova/

http://www.trm.md/en/social/meteorologii-au-prelungit-codul-galben-de-seceta-hidrologica/

http://www.globalmeatnews.com/Livestock/Drought-hits-animal-feed-in-Moldova

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Dry conditions caused damage on yields of maize, soy and also fruit crops in Serbia.

http://www.tanjug.rs/full-view_en.aspx?izb=193223

Unusually high air temperatures caused extent wildfires in Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia and

Herzegovina and also in Greece.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/wildfires-threaten-villages-balkans-

150721161805444.html

OUTLOOK

Figure presents the model simulations of the 60-days water balance anomaly (mm) for the

time period from 20th

June to 18th

August. Water balance conditions are expected to get

better in areas of Balkan Peninsula where water deficit exists. Exceptions are Moldova and

eastern Romania, where water balance anomalies will persist in the same range in very dry

condition, while in Greece water surplus will continue.

Water deficit in central part of eastern Turkey is expected to deepen for a little bit, while

water balance surplus in will be similar to antecedent decade.

Methodology

Drought monitoring bulletin is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model simulations over SE Europe, SPI index calculations and

remote sensing. Precipitation data is provided by Global Precipitation data Centre (GPCC; gpcc.dwd.de). NWP simulations are performed

with Non-hydrostatical Meso-scale Model (NMM, see: http://www.dtcenter.org/wrf-nmm/users/). Historical DMCSEE model climatology

was computed with NMM model for time period between 1st January 1979 and 31st December 2013. European Center for Medium Range

Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data set (see: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim) was used as input

for simulations. Long term averages (1979–2013), used for comparison of current weather conditions, are obtained from simulated data set.

Comparison of current values to long term averages provides signal on potential ongoing drought severity.