drought indices in south america - wamis.org · application of drought indices in south america,...

Inter-Regional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought

Lincoln, Nebraska – Dec. 2009

Drought Indices in South AmericaPaulo Sentelhas

University of São Paulo, Brazil


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009

Drought Indices in South America

The aim of this presentation is to give an overview about the use and

application of drought indices in South America, considering the

products provided by the National and Regional Meteorological and

Hydrological Services.



National and Regional Meteorological &

Hydrological Services available in

South America


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009ArgentinaArgentinean Meteorological Service - www.smn.gov.ar



Climatological Information - SPI for the humid region of Argentina

Argentina


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009ArgentinaSPI statistics for humid region of Argentina


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Argentina

10-day Climatological Water Balance

Agroclimatological Information


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Argentina

Annual rainfall & anomaly Ten-day rainfall & anomaly

Monthly number of days without rainfall & anomaly

Hydrological Information


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Bolivia

Bolivian Meteorological Service – www.senamhi.gov.bo

No information about drought indices, rainfall anomaly and water balance are available online at the SENAMHI website


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009BrazilNational Institute of Meteorology – www.inmet.gov.br


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Brazil

Monthly Rainfall Anomaly

January 2009

October 2009


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009BrazilSPI – Cressman Interpolation Method

SPI 1 Month SPI 3 Months SPI 6 Months

SPI 12 Months SPI 24 Months



Center for Weather Forecast and Climatic Studies National Institute for Space Research – CPTEC/INPE www.cptec.inpe.br



Rainfall Monitoring by Satellite Images

Accumulated for 2 days





Soil Moisture Monitoring estimated by Satellite Images

Days without rain estimated by Satellite Images



PROCLIMA - NERainfall, Soil Moisture and Actual ET Monitoring in the

Northeast Region(based on surface data)

May

November


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009BrazilINFOSECA - State of São Paulo Drought Monitoring System

www.infoseca.sp.gov.br/

INFOSECA operates with seven different drought indices



SPI 1 Month SPI 3 Months SPI 6 Months

SPI 9 Months SPI 12 Months

SPI – INFOSECA

SPI 24 Months


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009BrazilState of Ceará Meteorological Foundation



Soil Water Availability (%)

Nov/2009


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009BrazilCOSAN – Etanol and Sugar Company23 Mills in the States of SP, MS & GO

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3Costa Pinto 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 2 1 1 2 1 1 2

Santa Helena 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 2 2 3 4 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 2 1 1 2

Rafard 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 4 3 4 4 2 1 2 3 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 2 1 1 2

S. Francisco 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 1 2 1 1 2

Bom Retiro 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 4 2 1 2 3 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 3 1 1 2

Ipaussu 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 4 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 3 1 1 2 1 1 2

Diamante 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 5 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 2 1 1 2

Barra 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 3 3 4 4 5 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 2 1 1 2

D. Córregos 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 4 4 3 4 4 1 1 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 2 1 1 2

Junqueira 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 1 2

Bonfim 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 1 2 3 4 4 4 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 2 1 3

Serra 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 4 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 2 1 1 2

Tamoio 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 4 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 1 1 2 1 1 3

Univalem 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 4 5

Gasa 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 1 3 4 1 2

Mundial 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 1 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 4 4 4 5

Destivale 1 1 2 1 1 2 4 1 4 4 5 5 5 5 1 3 4 5 5 5 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 1 2 4 5 1 1

1 81 - 100 % ARM = Altamente favorável 2 61 - 80 % ARM = Favorável 3 51 - 60% ARM = Razoável4 31 - 50 % ARM = Desfavorável 5 < 31 % ARM = Crítico

Ano UsinaJaneiro Fevereiro Março Abril Maio Junho Julho Agosto Setembro Outubro Novembro Dezembro

2007

Legenda:

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3Costa Pinto 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 2 1

Santa Helena 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 1 2 4 4 4 5 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 3

Rafard 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 4 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1

S. Francisco 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 5 2 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1

Bom Retiro 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1

Ipaussu 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1

Diamante 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 4 4 5 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 2 1

Barra 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 2 3 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 2 2

D. Córregos 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 4 4 5 5 5 2 1 2 3 4 3 3 1 1

Junqueira 4 4 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 1

Bonfim 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 1

Serra 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 2

Tamoio 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 4

Univalem 5 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 5 2 4 5 5 5 5

Gasa 4 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2

Mundial 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 4 4 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 3 5 5 5 2

Destivale 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 4 1 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 4 5 5 5 3


Ano UsinaJaneiro Fevereiro Março Abril Maio Junho Julho Agosto Setembro Outubro Novembro Dezembro

2008

Legenda:

Soil Water Availability Monitoring System

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3Costa Pinto 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

Santa Helena 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1

Rafard 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

S. Francisco 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1

Bom Retiro 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1

Ipaussu 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Diamante 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1

Barra 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1

D. Córregos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1

Junqueira 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 4 2 3 1 1 1 1 1

Bonfim 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 2 2 1

Serra 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Tamoio 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Univalem 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1

Gasa 4 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 1

Mundial 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 4 3 2 4 4 4 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1

Destivale 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1

Benálcool 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1

Jataí 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 1 1 1 1 1

Paraúna 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 4 5 2 3 1 1 2

Tarumã 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

Maracaí 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1

Parálcool 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1


Ano UsinaJaneiro Fevereiro Março Abril Novembro Dezembro

2009

Legenda:

Maio Junho Julho Agosto Setembro Outubro


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Chile

Chilean Meteorological Service – www.meteochile.cl

No specific information about drought indices or water balance are available online at the MeteoChile website


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009ChileRainfall amount and anomaly are only available in a table,

comparing different time scales with normal data


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009ColombiaColombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental

Studies – www.ideam.gov.co


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Colombia

Agroclimatological Information at www.ideam.gov.co



Monthly Rainfall and its relation to the Normal



Humidity Index for the latest months



Soil water availability: 2009 x Normal



Drought Index SPI


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009EcuadorEcuador Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology – www.inamhi.gov.ec


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Ecuador

10-day Rainfall Anomaly

2009

2009


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Ecuador10-day Climatological Water Balance - November 2009


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009French Guiana

Meteo France – Antilles & French Guianahttp://www.meteo.gp/


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009French Guiana

Monthly Rainfall Map

10-day & monthly rainfall and the relation to the normal


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009GuyanaHydrometeorology Service of Guyana – www.hydromet.gov.gy

No information about drought indices, rainfall anomaly and water balance are available online at the Hydromet website


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009ParaguayMeteorological and Hydrological Service of Paraguay www.meteorologia.gov.py

Monthly Meteorological Reports available in PDF at DMH - DINAC

website


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009ParaguayMonthly Climatological

Report (Sep 2009) – Rainfall & Anomaly and Days with

Rainfall & Anomaly


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Peru

National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Peru www.senamhi.gob.pe


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009PeruMonthly Agroclimatic Report

Rainfall Humidity Index


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009PeruDrought Monitoring in Chancay Watershed – Lambayeque & Jequetepeque

PETRainfall

Humidity Index


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009PeruDrought Monitoring in Chancay Watershed – Lambayeque & Jequetepeque

SPI


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Suriname

Meteorological Service Surinamehttp://www.meteosur.sr

Daily Rainfall Map

No information about drought indices, rainfall anomaly and water balance are available online at the METEOSUR website


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Uruguay

National Institute for Agricultural Research - www.inia.org.uy GRAS Website –Agroclimatic Information System



Monthly Rainfall Reports – Accumulated & Anomaly



Monthly RainfallClimatology & Variability



% of Soil Available Water January 2009

% of Soil Available Water October 2009

Climatological Water Balance Monitoring


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Venezuela

National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Venezuela www.inameh.gob.ve


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009VenezuelaMonthly Rainfall Variation in Relation to Normal


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Summary - Drought Monitoring in South America

VenUruSur

Per

ChiBra

BolArg

ColEcu

GuyPar

RainfallRainfall Anomaly

Water Balance

Drought Index

Drought Index Type

√-√√√

√√

√

-

-

-

-

√-√

√√

√-

√

√

-

-

√

√-√

-√

--

√

√

-

-

-

√-√

-√

-√

-

-

-

-

-

SPI

-SPI

-HI & SPI

-

-

-

-

-

-

HI & SPI

FGu √ √ - - -


Lincoln, Nebraska - 2009Final Remarks

Rainfall amount and anomaly are the most common variables used to

identify droughts in South America;

Bolivia, Guyana and Suriname do not have any kind of drought monitoring

provided by their Met Services;

Just three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Colombia) present a complete

set of data analysis (rainfall, water balance and drought index) for drought

monitoring in their territory;



Four countries are currently using drought indices (Argentina, Brazil,

Colombia and Peru) – SPI and HI are the most used;

When drought indices are available, their principles and calculation are not

well explained in the majority of the cases, which make their use and

understanding limited by the users;

Even when available, the drought indices are not followed by a text to

explain how to use or interpret them or how they are related to the impacts

on different areas;



None of the Met. & Hydrol. Services of South

America is providing drought early warnings,

based on drought indices. The only service in

this way is based on El Niño/La Niña

climatology, showing the probability of rain

above or below normal in the next three

months, as can be seen aside:

Danke Spasivo Gracias Obrigado



Thank you Arigatou Merci Grazie

University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil

[email protected]

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