DROUGHT, HEAT WAVE AND WILDFIRE CLIMATE IMPACTS IN CLARK COUNTY

Decision-making framework for low probability, high impact events

The Super Sixes: Rachel Warren, Jareth Holt, Shuchi Talati, Lan Hoang, Katie Loa, Casey Hagelson

ROAD MAP

Problem Objective & Stakeholders Work Plan Mock Event Tree

PROBLEM

Compound risk of multiple coinciding extreme events result in increased risk of heat-related illnesses, increased risk of peak energy demand, increased risk of power outages, etc.

How should decision-makers (public health officials, power sector, government officials) plan for these events in the short and long-term?

OBJECTIVE

To assess and present a framework for low probability, high heat-related impacts of climate change on Clark County and potential alternatives to address these impacts

Stakeholder: City of Las Vegas

Deliverable: White paper

WORK PLAN (1)

Split into 2 groups (climate events and impacts & alternatives group)

Climate group: Current probabilities Future probabilities Indicators & forecasting

Impacts group: Inherent vulnerabilities Range of potential alternatives Cost assessments

WORK PLAN (2)T F S S M T W

Climate eventsLiterature reviewProbabilistic analysis & uncertaintyFlow chartDecision-tree

Climate impactsLiterature reviewDetermine indictorsDetermine timescalesImpact study

AlternativesLiterature reviewAssess range of alternatives & costsDecision-tree framework

LogisticsPreliminary presentationWhite paper writing draftFinal presentationFinal paper

MOCK EVENT TREE FOR CLIMATE EVENTS

0.5 wild fireX1

0.05 drought

Z1 0.5 otherX2

0.05 heat wave 0.05 wild fireX3

Y1 0.9 no eventX4

0.05 heat waveX5

0.025 drought 0.05 wild fireX5

0 0.9 no eventX6

outcomeX7

0.025 wild fire 0.05 droughtX8

0 0.9 no eventX9

0.9 nothingX10