drought assessment and mitigation in southwest asia

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DROUGHT ASSESSMENT AND DROUGHT ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SOUTHWEST ASIA: MITIGATION IN SOUTHWEST ASIA: project overview and workshop format project overview and workshop format Vladimir Smakhtin Vladimir Smakhtin Presentation at the South West Asia Regional Drought Workshop Presentation at the South West Asia Regional Drought Workshop Colombo, Sri Lanka, 7 October 2004 Colombo, Sri Lanka, 7 October 2004

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Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia: project overview and workshop format Vladimir Smakhtin Presentation at the South West Asia Regional Drought Workshop Colombo, Sri Lanka, 7 October 2004

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Page 1: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

DROUGHT ASSESSMENT AND DROUGHT ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SOUTHWEST ASIA:MITIGATION IN SOUTHWEST ASIA:

project overview and workshop formatproject overview and workshop format

Vladimir SmakhtinVladimir Smakhtin

Presentation at the South West Asia Regional Drought WorkshopPresentation at the South West Asia Regional Drought WorkshopColombo, Sri Lanka, 7 October 2004Colombo, Sri Lanka, 7 October 2004

Page 2: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION

•• DroughtsDroughts-- GeneralGeneral•• Regional Drought Project at a glanceRegional Drought Project at a glance•• What do we want from this WorkshopWhat do we want from this Workshop

Page 3: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

DROUGHTS - GENERAL

• Drought is a natural hazard and a normal part of climate for ALL world regions

• Drought always stems from the lack of precipitation. When precipitation deficiency continues for a season, year or longer – water supplies become insufficient to meet human demands

• Drought is a temporary phenomenon. It develops slow and is difficult to detect. Drought is a recurring event

• Drought is the most complex of all natural hazards. Perceptions on Droughts differ

Page 4: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

DROUGHTS IN SOUTH WEST ASIA

• Droughts never leave South-West Asia. They just migrate from one province, State or District to another. Drought impacts are non- structural and spread over large areas.

• The ability of governments in the region and international agencies to deal and cope up with droughts remains to be constrained by the absence of reliable data and tools, information networks and institutional capacities.

• But drought impacts in the region can be reduced through improved management and regional cooperation

Page 5: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

REGIONAL DROUGHT PROJECT

Objectives:

To identify existing technical, institutional and policy gaps in drought management in southwest Asia (west India, Pakistan and Afghanistan)

To suggest ways to improve drought mitigation efforts in the short and long-term

Sponsored by:US Department of State, Regional Environment Office for South Asia

Page 6: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

DROUGHT CRISIS MANAGEMENT VERSUS DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT

• Post-impact interventions—drought relief (emergency assistance). Reactive approach. Often referred to as “crisis management”.

• Preparedness planning and mitigation. Often referred to as “risk management”. Pro-active. Actions are planned in advance

Page 7: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

APPROACH

• The State of the Art of drought management in the region may be assessed in terms of how well different countries are PREPARED to effectively respond to droughts

• Drought Preparedness implies:– Drought monitoring and early warning systems should be put in place– Drought risks (hazard, vulnerability) should be understood and

quantified– Appropriate drought mitigation and response strategies should be

developed in accordance with the quantified risks

• The approach therefore is to identify problems/issues in the components above and to suggest ways to fill the identified gaps

Page 8: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

THE MATRIX OF PROJECT COMPONENTS

Component Geographical focus and/or scale

Developing a remote sensing based regional drought monitoring system

The entire southwest Asia Region, including west India, Pakistan and Afghanistan

Drought hazard analysis

India: Rajasthan and Gujarat states

Pakistan: Baluchistan and Sindh provinces

Afghanistan: national

Socio-economic surveys of rural population

India: Rajasthan Pakistan: Baluchistan and Sindh provinces

Afghanistan: Ghor, Badhgis Helmand and Kandahar provinces

Analysis of drought- related institutions and policies

India: national and Rajasthan

Pakistan: national Afghanistan: national

Assessment of the potential of water harvesting technologies to withstand droughts

India: Rajasthan Pakistan: Baluchistan and Sindh provinces

Afghanistan: national

Page 9: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

PARTNERS

• In India:• Indian Council for Agricultural Research

(ICAR), Delhi.• Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Jaipur• Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI),

Jodhpur• Sewa Mandir – an NGO based in Udaipur• Indian Meteorology Department (IMD), Pune• In Pakistan:• Pakistan Agricultural Research Council,

Islamabad• Water Resources Research Institute,

Islamabad• Faisalabad Agricultural University, Faisalabad• Peshawar Agricultural University, Peshawar• Arid Zone Research Institute (AZRI), Quetta• Pakistan Meteorological Department,

Islamabad• In Afghanistan:• Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Kabul-Herat• Kabul University, Faculty of Agriculture,

Kabul• Ministry of Irrigation, Water and Environment,

Kabul• FAO, Afghanistan

KU

Page 10: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

ONLINE DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM (DMS)• DMS is accessible on-line (http://dms.iwmi.org)• DMS allows the condition of ground vegetation to be monitored in time and space• DMS is based on high-resolution remote sensing data (0.5 by 0.5 km). This allows drought

conditions to be monitored up to the level of a tehsil or a village• New data may be uploaded every 8 or 16 days, which makes it a “near real time” system

Click on the Image to examine drought conditions in Your Area of Interest

Page 11: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

ONLINE DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM (DMS)• DMS is accessible on-line (http://dms.iwmi.org)• DMS allows the condition of ground vegetation to be monitored in time and space• DMS is based on high-resolution remote sensing data (0.5 by 0.5 km). This allows drought

conditions to be monitored up to the level of a tehsil or a village• New data may be uploaded every 8 or 16 days, which makes it a “near real time” system

Spatial view of a District with vegetation index

Time Series graph for a District or Specific location

Drought free zone

Mild Drought zone

Severe Drought zone

Page 12: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

District-wise Distribution of Moderate, Severe & Extreme Drought Years in Gujarat

(Similar analyses has been carried out for other States and Countries)

(one bar unit corresponds to one drought year)

DROUGHT HAZARD MAPPINGDrought hazard mapping has direct implications for drought planning and emergency

assistance

Page 13: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

DROUGHT ASSESSMENT SOFTWAREDrought indices calculation screenMain screen

Time series plots of drought characteristics Mapping of drought indices

•Software allows a variety of drought characteristics to be calculated, displayed, mapped

•It is part of a much larger comprehensive software package for multiple water resources analyses, which could be useful in its own capacity

•Software targets meteorological departments, water authorities, water research institutions

Page 14: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

EVALUATING POTENTIAL FOR WATER HARVESTING

• Review of traditional and modern technologies for water harvesting, their current spread and performance in different regions

• Quantification of the potential that such methods have to withstand droughts of different extremity

• Developing an Internet bank of information on water harvesting measures, traditional and novel irrigation systems and techniques – with illustration of how they operate, photos etc

Page 15: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

EVALUATING POTENTIAL FOR WATER HARVESTING

• Review of traditional and modern technologies for water harvesting, their current spread and performance in different regions

• Quantification of the potential that such methods have to withstand droughts of different extremity

• Developing an Internet bank of information on water harvesting measures, traditional and novel irrigation systems and techniques – with illustration of how they operate, photos etc

Page 16: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

EVALUATING DROUGHT POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS

The following general questions apply:

• Do the relevant policies and institutions exist ?• If “yes” - do they establish operating guidelines for

drought management ?• Do they reflect regional differences in drought

characteristics, vulnerability, and impact ?• Are they linked with national policies on water resources

management, disaster management ?• Do they promote principles of drought preparedness by

encouraging adoption of– Reliable forecasts and early warning systems– Actions and programs that reduce anticipated drought impacts– Coordinated emergency response programs that ensure timely

and targeted relief during droughts ?

Page 17: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

SURVEYS OF DROUGHT COPING MEASURES OF RURAL POPULATION

• Afganistan, Baluchistan and Sindh, Rajasthan• Surveys aimed to identify and document

– How people on the ground perceive droughts– How people adapt to recurring water scarcity– What interventions by the governments/NGOs are needed to enhance

this adaptation – How effective the previous interventions were

• Feed into vulnerability assessment (who is at risk and why)

Page 18: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

PROJECT WEB SITEhttp://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/droughtassessment/index.asp

•• content:content:–– General information about droughtsGeneral information about droughts–– Overview of the Project activitiesOverview of the Project activities–– Project Publications Project Publications –– Links to Partner web sites and other drought related web sitesLinks to Partner web sites and other drought related web sites–– Databases of regional literature on droughts and organizations iDatabases of regional literature on droughts and organizations involved in nvolved in

drought research and managementdrought research and management–– Drought software descriptionDrought software description–– Access to Regional Drought Monitoring systemAccess to Regional Drought Monitoring system–– Information about our sponsors Information about our sponsors –– MoreMore……

Page 19: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

A FEW KEY MESSAGES

• Relief - emergency assistance – dominates the current anti-drought actions in the region. A paradigm shift towards drought preparedness is necessary

• Without improved quantification of drought hazard in different parts of the region and effective early warning systems drought preparedness may not be achieved. Both are impossible without improved data availability and access

• Even if drought hazard is fully understood and well predicted in advance, but little is done about decreasing vulnerability of population and economic sectors to it – drought impacts will remain significant

Page 20: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE WAY FORWARD

• Develop common understanding of a drought• Natural hazard with far reaching economic and social consequences• Normal part of climate,• Temporary and recurring event• Contributes to permanently declining overall water supplies

• Improve regional drought monitoring and early warning systems (long-term). • Integrate RS data into such systems: it has a significant potential for

drought monitoring, which is not fully utilized at present• Ensure timely acquisition and delivery of climate data: RS will not do the

job alone • Integrate weather forecast into such systems• Develop well-targeted information messages• Develop mechanisms for delivery of warnings (TV, Internet)

• Improve data availability and access (short- and long-term)• Rainfall data (at least) should not be classified and should be free• Integrate data collected by different agencies into one centralized source in

each country• Improve storage of already collected data to avoid data losses • Improve data collection networks • Illustrate the economic value of hydrometeorological data

Page 21: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

RECOMMENDATIONS AND WAY FORWARD

• Plan in advance (long-term) - Do it during normal periods. • Develop / improve drought hazard (climate) and drought vulnerability

(population, sectors) maps • Plan measures, institutional structure, capacity building and logistics for

relief according to vulnerability level of each region. • Develop Relief Master Plan. Locate relief material banks in vulnerable

regions to ensure quicker response• Develop crop yield and/or income insurance schemes. • Apply innovative technologies for water harvesting. Is artificial recharge• a solution for water scarce areas?• Decrease the dependency of population on land-based activities• Set up an example project for development of a Drought Plan- in one

country or State

• Ensure Policy support for drought preparedness and planning

• Set Regional drought preparedness network (short-term)• Establishing regional drought information center • Regular regional conference on Droughts• South Asia Drought Encyclopedia / Drought Management Handbook

Page 22: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

THE OBJECTIVES OF THE WORKSHOP

• To present and discuss some preliminary results /outputs of the Project

• To inform participants about other relevant initiatives and practices in drought assessment and mitigation – in the region and internationally

• To discuss the potential for and the way forward in drought mitigation in the region

Page 23: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

ANTICIPATED OUTPUTS OF THE WORKSHOP

• The list of priority components for future anti-drought work in the region with recommendations on related benchmarks and targets

• Workshop proceedings, which will document the discussions held and presentations made

• Workshop results will be synthezised, integrated with other project outputs and made broadly available

Page 24: Drought Assessment and Mitigation in Southwest Asia

THANK YOU !THANK YOU !

Drought Relief Time Drought Relief Time –– Coffee BreakCoffee Break