dropping out: early projections and predictions “building for the future:” may 7, 2008
TRANSCRIPT
Dropping Out: Early Projections and Predictions
“Building for the Future:” May 7, 2008
Percentage of students graduating in four, five, or six years for six cohorts of first-time ninth graders
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Class of2000
Class of2001
Class of2002
Class of2003
Class of2004
Class of2005
6 years
5 years
4 years
There are many There are many underlying reasons for underlying reasons for dropping out of school dropping out of school ….….
Often, students send Often, students send “distress signals” long “distress signals” long before they actually before they actually drop outdrop out
Predicting DropoutPredicting Dropout
How can educatorsHow can educators“capture the signal” in “capture the signal” in order to prevent order to prevent dropout?dropout?
A good early warning A good early warning system predicts with:system predicts with:
High accuracyHigh accuracy – at least 75% of – at least 75% of students with a characteristic will students with a characteristic will drop outdrop out
High yieldHigh yield – these – these characteristics capture most of characteristics capture most of the dropoutsthe dropouts
Easily Easily availableavailable and relatively and relatively inexpensiveinexpensive
Data scan (8Data scan (8thth grade grade on)on)
Test scoresTest scores Report card gradesReport card grades AttendanceAttendance Special education and ELL Special education and ELL
statusstatus GenderGender AgeAge Race/ethnic backgroundRace/ethnic background
88thth Grade signals Grade signals Three factors gave students at Three factors gave students at
least a 75% probability of least a 75% probability of dropping out:dropping out:
1.1. Failing math in 8Failing math in 8thth grade grade
2.2. Failing English in 8Failing English in 8thth grade grade
3.3. Attending less than 80% Attending less than 80% of of the time the time
54% of the dropouts 54% of the dropouts sent one or more sent one or more of these signalsof these signals
Some students were sending these signals as early as 6th grade
The Big Four in 6The Big Four in 6thth gradegrade Failing MathFailing Math Failing EnglishFailing English Attendance <80%Attendance <80% At least one poor behavior markAt least one poor behavior mark
(Balfanz and Herzog)
Of every 100 6Of every 100 6thth graders graders with a poor behavior with a poor behavior mark…mark…
On time in 1 year (7th grade)
79%
On time in 4 years (10th grade)
34%
On-time to graduationOn-time to graduation
7%
99thth Grade signals Grade signals Three factors gave students Three factors gave students
at least a 75% probability of at least a 75% probability of dropping out:dropping out:
1.1. Earning fewer than 2 Earning fewer than 2 creditscredits
2.2.Not being promoted to 10Not being promoted to 10thth gradegrade
3.3.Attending less than 70% of the Attending less than 70% of the timetime
80% of the dropouts 80% of the dropouts sent one or more sent one or more of these signals of these signals in 8in 8thth or 9 or 9thth grade grade
Pilot Middle Grades Pilot Middle Grades ProgramProgram
A work in progressA work in progress
Conceptual frameConceptual frame
Whole school interventions
Targeted Interventions
Intensive Interventions
More labor intensive
More specialized
More costly
Matrix: Matrix: Interventions by Interventions by predictorspredictors
Example: AttendanceExample: Attendance
Whole School
Create a culture of “Attending Every Day Matters!”
Every absence brings a response
Positive social incentives for good attendance
Ongoing attendance tracking at teacher team meetings
Targeted2+ unexcused absences/month=Big Deal. Daily check in by an adult. Teacher team invites parent, counselor in to investigate causes.
Intensive Daily one-on-one attention and problem solving
Social service or community support engaged
When do students When do students move to the next tier?move to the next tier?
Attendance Supports
Level of Intervention Cut Point
Whole-School All Students
Targeted
Intensive
3 absences
10 absences
Real-time monitoring Real-time monitoring tooltool
PSSA
LAST FIRSTAtt
05-06Att to Date
FINAL 05-06 Math
FINAL 05-06 Rdg
MP1 06-07 Math
MP1 06-07 Rdg
MP1 Behavior Marks 2006-07
Mar-06EXIT
Jun-06Dec-06
Change, Jun-Dec
Student A 88% 95% D D NA NA NABELOW BASIC Rdg 927 Math
11574 NA NA
Student B 96% 99% B C C C NoneBASIC Rdg
1259 PROF Math 1335
5 5.5 0.5
Student C 85% 90% C D C CFails to be attentive
(Math)
BELOW BASIC Rdg 968
PROF Math 1335
4 4 0
Student D 97% 100% A B B B NonePROF Rdg
1280 ADV Math 1544
5.5 6 0.5
COURSES READING LEVEL
2006-07 School A 6th g., Teacher A
Does NOT: complete work on time; follow school
rules; make appropriate transitions; organize self
ALL AREAS
None
STUDENTS ATTENDANCEBEHAVIOR
Where Student Needs Support
Final Behavior Marks 2005-2006
Does NOT: accept responsibil. for choices; complete work on time;
follow school rules; handle conflict; show positive
attitude
Next steps….Next steps….
How far back can we take the How far back can we take the “signal”? Can we pick up a “signal” “signal”? Can we pick up a “signal” in 5in 5thth grade or earlier? grade or earlier?
Are there better ways of predicting Are there better ways of predicting dropout among students who get to dropout among students who get to 1010thth grade? grade?
What else can we learn about kids What else can we learn about kids with 8with 8thth and 9 and 9thth grade risk factors grade risk factors from survey data?from survey data?
