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BUSINESS & FINANCIAL DRIVING EXCELLENCE | LABOUR MARKET REPORTS 2019

MCPCC | LABOUR MARKET REPORTS 2019 BUSINESS & FINANCIAL

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CONTENTS

MOTOR CARRIER PASSENGER COUNCIL OF CANADA INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

PART ONE OVERVIEW 4

DATA SOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5STATISTICS CANADA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5SECTOR DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5OCCUPATION DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

PART TWO BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 7

INDUSTRY PROFILE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7INDUSTRY REVENUES AND GOVERNMENT CONTRIBUTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

SERVICE PROVIDERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

PART THREE VEHICLE PROGRESSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE 11

ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11CANADIAN CITY COMPARISONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13POWERING ELECTRIC VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18CONSULTATION SCOPE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18CONSIDERATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

RESEARCH FINDINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20CURRENT STATE OF AVS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20LIMITATIONS OF AVS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21AV LEGISLATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21AVS IN PUBLIC TRANSIT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21

PART FOUR PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT 22

URBAN TRANSIT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22FEDERAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22ALBERTA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22BRITISH COLUMBIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22ONTARIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23QUEBEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24

SCHOOL BUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

PART FIVE RIDERSHIP AND SERVICE 25

PART SIX EMPLOYMENT COSTS 27

PART SEVEN LABOUR MARKET IMPACT 29

AGEING WORKFORCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29SCHOOL BUS RECRUITMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29SUSTAINABILITY OF INTERURBAN AND RURAL BUS COMPANIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

PART EIGHT CONCLUSION 30

ENDNOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31

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www.buscouncil.ca

MOTOR CARRIER PASSENGER COUNCIL OF CANADA INTRODUCTION

The MCPCC provides a crucial National forum for industry, labour, government, and education to share resources and information .

MCPCC’s work is focused on several key areas: raising awareness of and advocating for the bus industry across Canada, reaching government, education, and the public; reporting much needed labour market information, recognizing the outstanding service of bus professionals; promoting industry-wide career opportunities, and the exceptional training and development that has contributed to the industry’s commendable safety record.

MCPCC is constantly seeking innovative ways to work with industry and government to promote the Bus Industry as a critical link in the nation’s transportation infrastructure. It is a privilege to advocate for the exceptional men and women dedicated to this essential service.

For more information, contact

MCPCC 10350 Yonge Street, Suite 206 Richmond Hill, Ontario L4C 5K9 Tel: (905) 237-0533 [email protected]

©All rights reserved. The use of this publication, in whole or in part, reproduction, storage in a retrieval program or transmission in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photographic, photocopying or recording) is prohibited, without the prior written permission of the Motor Carrier Passenger Council of Canada, and is an offense under the Copyright Act.

Copyright © 2019 Motor Carrier Passenger Council of Canada (MCPCC)

This project was funded in part by the Government of Canada Sectoral Initiatives Program The opinions and interpretations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada

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The motor carrier passenger industry has significant economic and societal influence on Canada and Canadians. The many benefits include: public mobility, cost-efficient transportation that stimulates economic development, environmentally sound solutions to traffic congestion, reduction of energy consumption and improved air quality.

Over the past few years, the industry has seen a transformation to digitization, and the emergence of new mobility players. Digitizing transportation services, if done well, can improve the efficiency, create better experiences for customers and ultimately

increase profitability of an integrated transportation infrastructure. Our Industry has fully embraced these opportunities for growth, progress, and innovation.

While mass public transportation will remain the backbone around which sustainable mobility solutions will thrive, complementary solutions are making the passenger transportation market more complex. The trending technological innovations have ironically reinforced the importance of the human aspect in public transportation as our mission is to serve the public effectively while adapting to changing structures.

KEY TRENDS IMPACTING THE INDUSTRY

KEY TRENDS POTENTIAL IMPACTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

• Ageing Population

• Increased average age of workforce

• Migration and Immigration

• Urbanization

• Loss of skilled workers

• Smaller labour pool

• Economic growth constrained by labour shortages

• Curtailments/cancellations of rural services

TECHNOLOGY

• Automation

• Artificial Intelligence

• Digitization

• Job loss

• Restructuring of existing occupations

• Emergence of new jobs and careers

• Increased demand for advanced technical and “soft” skills

• Falling demand for mid-skilled jobs

CLIMATE CHANGE

• Electrification • Challenges for carbon-intensive sectors

• Increased investment in “green” sectors

• New skill requirements

• Initial higher procurement costs

PART ONE

OVERVIEW


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PART ONE

OVERVIEW

DATA SOURCES

INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC

• Ongoing consultations and interviews with participants from industry employers and employees, labour, associations, education, manufacturers and governments

• Customized Industry surveys of a representative sampling of employers, owners, managers and human resources practitioners covering all sub-sectors in all provinces and territories

• A comprehensive review of secondary sources, databases and internet search

PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION

The following section outlines publicly available labour market information, disseminated by the Canadian federal government.

STATISTICS CANADA

Statistics Canada administers five surveys that provide a snapshot of current labour market events. These surveys are: the Labour Force Survey (LFS, record number 3701), the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH, record number 2612), Employment Insurance Statistics (EIS, record number 2604), Job Vacancy Statistics (JVS, record number 5202), and the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (JVWS, record number 5217). These surveys provide varying degrees of granularity and timeliness with respect to bus industry labour market information.

SECTOR DATALabour Force Survey1 (LFS)

• Provides estimates of employment and unemployment.

• Survey results provided 10 days after the completion of data collection.

• LFS data are used to produce the well-known unemployment rate as well as other standard labour market indicators such as the employment rate and the participation rate.

• Information available at the 2-digit NAICS level.

Job Vacancy Statistics2

• Provides a monthly portrait of the level of unoccupied positions, job vacancy rates and unemployment-to-job vacancies ratios.

• All estimates are produced at various levels of cross-classification of geography (province and territories) and industry (available at the 2-digit NAICS level).

OCCUPATION DATA Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours3

• Provides a monthly portrait of the amount of earnings, as well as the number of jobs (i.e., occupied positions) and hours worked.

• Information available at the 4-digit NOC level. • Information available at the national and provincial/territorial

levels.

Job Vacancy and Wage Survey4

• Job Vacancy Component of the JVWS collects data on the number of job vacancies by occupation and economic region on a quarterly basis. Additional information is also available by occupation, such as the average hourly wage offered, the proportion of job vacancies for full- and part-time positions, the duration of job vacancies, and the levels of education and experience sought for the job.

• Provides information at the 4-digit NOC code. • Data can be split by province (Alberta, Ontario, Quebec,

BC, Manitoba only provinces/territories that consistently provide at a quality at the “acceptable” level and above).

• Data tables produced quarterly.

Employment Insurance Statistics5

• Reports on the operation of the Employment Insurance Program.

• Provides complementary labour market statistics at the national and provincial level, as well as for sub-provincial areas.

• The statistics released include the number of beneficiaries, types of benefits, benefit payments, the number of claims, as well as the number of disqualifications and disentitlements.

• Estimates are also produced by detailed age and for 140 occupation groups to the 2-digit NOC codes.6

Statistics Canada also administers the Annual Passenger Bus and Urban Transit Survey. Data are typically released 2 years after survey administration and includes:

• Financial performance of the industry;7 • Sources of operating revenue and expenses;8,9 • Capital expenditure;10 • Equipment operated;11 • Fuel Consumption;12 • Maintenance costs;13 • Employment and compensation;14 and

• Revenue and passenger trips (urban transit only).15

It should be noted that a change in the questionnaire in 2014 limits the comparability of results for some questions.


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Employment and Social Development Canada16 (ESDC)

ESDC uses the models of the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) and the National Occupational Classification (NOC, 2016 version) to develop projections of future trends in the numbers of job openings and job seekers for 292 occupational groupings at the national level, covering the entire workforce. The projections help to identify those occupations that may face labour shortage or labour surplus conditions over the medium term. The latest projections cover the 2017 to 2026 period.

Limitations of Bus Industry LMI

There are two principal and interrelated challenges associated with open bus industry LMI. Data that are available on a timely basis (i.e., LFS) are typically rolled up to the 2-digit NAICS level (Transportation and Warehousing). This limits the ability to interpret these data specifically for the bus sector. Conversely, data related directly to the industry, either at the 4-digit NAICS or NOC code, typically takes much longer to be released, limiting the ability to interpret these data as they are no longer timely (i.e., Annual Passenger Bus and Urban Transit Survey).

Statistics Canada information is used with the permission of Statistics Canada. Users are forbidden to copy the data and re-disseminate them, in an original or modified form, for commercial purposes, without permission from Statistics Canada. Information on the availability of the wide range of data from Statistics Canada can be obtained from Statistics Canada’s Regional Offices, its World Wide Web site at http://www.statcan.ca and its toll-free access number 1-800-263-1136.

PART TWO

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

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INDUSTRY PROFILE

The motor carrier passenger industry of Canada, the bus industry, is a significant force in the Canadian economy, with business activity of approximately 1,032 companies, generating more than $20 billion in 2017 operating and non-operating revenues, and employing over 118,000 full-time equivalent people. It is an essential component of Canada’s transportation infrastructure.

STRUCTUREThe industry encompasses five sub-sectors:

• Urban transit systems

• Scheduled intercity bus carriers

• School bus services

• Tour and charter carriers

• Accessible services (paratransit)

The structure of the industry has changed significantly as a result of widespread industry consolidations in the school bus, intercity and tour and charter sub-sectors; which has repeatedly involved international investment. Selective evaluation of public/private partnerships and inter-modal alliances is continuing, primarily motivated by economic and competitive issues.

INDUSTRY REVENUES AND GOVERNMENT CONTRIBUTIONS

Of the 20 billion of total revenues in 2017, urban transit predominantly publicly operated, is the sub-sector with the greatest revenues (82%) with operating and non-operating expenses (75.5%) and net income (78.5%) from 2012-2017. It should be noted that over 50% of urban transit revenues are operating and capital contributions from government, necessitated by the complexity of the urban infrastructure, combined with the essential nature of urban services.

PART TWO

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT


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SERVICE PROVIDERS

Figure 1 provides a graphic of the number of business companies operating in Canada. There were 1,032 bus companies operating in 2017, down from the number of companies in 2012. This is due primarily to a decrease in the number of school bus companies,

through amalgamation, which make up roughly 40% of the companies in the bus industry. The interurban and rural bus sector also experienced a downturn in the number of companies, decreasing from twenty-two (22) in 2012 to thirteen (13) in 2017.

UrbanInterurban & RuralSchool & EmployeeCharter & SightseeingOtherTotal

Statistics Canada. Extract from Table 23-10-0081-01. Financial performance of the passenger bus and urban transit industries.

FIGURE 1 : NUMBER OF BUS COMPANIES (CANADA) (2012-2017)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1,246

751

231

155

8722 18 17 13 13 13

85 88 92 96 95

148 141 127 118 117

258 247 213

347 396

542 531491 488

411

1,051 1 024

936

1,062 1,032


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Motor coaches, on the other hand, make up only 7% of the total rolling stock for the industry but are the primary class of vehicles used in the interurban and rural and charter and sightseeing sectors at 66% and 59%, respectively.

VEHICLES

While the number of bus companies has decreased since 2012, the overall number of vehicles has increased by 10% over that time. Again, this change can be attributed primarily to the school

bus sector, which increased in total fleet size by 17% over that period. The percentage of the overall fleet owned by each sub-sector remained consistent between 2012 and 2017.

Urban Motor Coaches School & Employee Other Total Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0086-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, equipment operated, by industry and type of vehicle

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF VEHICLES OPERATED BY SECTOR (2012-2017)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

School buses make up over half of the fleet of Canadian bus companies, representing 56% of all rolling stock. School buses also make up 90% of the fleet in the school and employee bus sector.

Urban transit buses are the next most prevalent, making up 24% of the industry and 80% of the urban transit sector.

69,346

36,733

17,736

9,017

5,859

71,588

38,057

18,014

9,264

6,253

74,367

39,658

17,915

10,642

6,152

69,092

35,788

18,402

9,166

5,736

76,433

42,872

19,148

9,175

5,248

76,460

43,291

18,604

9,330

5,235


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It costs nearly twice as much to maintain urban transit buses ($0.35/km) and motor coaches ($0.32/km) than school buses ($0.18/km).

The industry consumed 784.6 million litres of diesel fuel in 2017 - down 20.7% from 2016 - and 892.2 million kilowatts of electricity, up 5.9% from 2016. Vehicle energy expenses accounted for 8.6% of total operating expenses in 2017, up from 7.7% in 2016.

CANADIAN BUS INDUSTRY FLEET COMPOSITION (2017)

2017 SUMMARY OF REVENUE BUSES BY FUEL TYPE - REGULAR SERVICE

Motor CoachesSchool BusesUrban Transit BusesOther Rolling Stock

13%24%

7%

56%

Diesel Biodiesel Natural Gas Gasoline Hybrid Diesel

Hybrid Biodiesel

Trolley Battery Fuel Cell

3,699

1739

262 10 355 242

10,762

Nu

mb

er o

f R

even

ue

Bu

sses

Fuel Types

URBAN TRANSIT

Source: CUTA - summary of Canadian Transit Statistics 2017 Operating Data

PART THREE

VEHICLE PROGRESSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

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Source Bloomberg/NEF. Note Passenger car and bus figures are global. Commercial vehicle segment adoption figures in both charts cover the main markets of China. Europe and the U.S.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV)

The way people and goods move is set to change dramatically over the next two decades, driven by a combination of policy, technology, economics, demographics and changing consumer preferences.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF)17 has produced The Electric Vehicle Outlook which is their annual long-term forecast of how electrification and shared mobility will impact road transportation from now to 2040. This report draws on their team of specialists around the world and also looks at how these trends will affect electricity demand, oil use and demand for battery materials.

The 2019 forecast includes new analysis on how shared mobility will impact vehicle sales patterns, on the long-term demand for freight, and on how electrification will play out in the commercial vehicle market.

By 2040 it is expected that 57% of all passenger vehicle sales and over 30% of the global passenger vehicle fleet will be electric. The electrification of the global bus fleet is already well underway with over 400,000 electric buses on the road. Commercial electric van and truck sales are set to accelerate in the 2020s.

The electrification of buses is also helping cut pollution in a meaningful way: for every 1,000 e-buses introduced, global demand for fuel drops by over 180,000 barrels per year .18

Buses Passenger Light Commercial Medium Commercial Heavy Commercial

EV SHARE OF ANNUAL VEHICLE SALES BY SEGMENT

EV SHARE OF ANNUAL VEHICLE FLEET BY SEGMENT

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040

Per

cen

t

Per

cen

t

PART THREE

VEHICLE PROGRESSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE


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Urban buses are the first transport mode where electrification is having a significant impact today. This trend is driven primarily by the rising awareness of toxic air pollution in our cities from internal combustion engines and supported by the compelling economic, comfort, and noise advantages. We expect urban buses to be the first transportation mode to reach zero emission thanks to electrification. The impressive deployment of electric buses in China has been the center of much attention, but what is the situation in Canada?

Vancouver, B.C September 11, 2019, TransLink launches zero-emissions battery-electric buses and standardized high-powered charging systems as part of Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium’s (CUTRIC’s) Pan-Canadian Integration Trial

“Canada’s transit industry is working towards a more sustainable future. We are transitioning to greener propulsion systems, including electrification, to do our part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting our country’s international climate commitments.”Marco D’Angelo Canadian Urban Transit Association CEO and President


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CANADIAN CITY COMPARISONS

MONTREAL, QUEBEC

When it comes to zero-emission transit, Montreal has one of Canada’s most forward-thinking strategies. Not only does Société de transport de Montréal have zero-emission ambitions for 2040, but it has a clear plan for how it will get there. Between now and 2025, all new acquisitions will be hybrid or electric, becoming 100% electric after 2040. The wheels are already in motion, with the transit authority in the process of acquiring six rapid-charge buses, 30 slow-charge buses, and six other electric buses and para-transport vans from Canadian manufacturers. The move follows a successful test of three rapid-charge buses over an 18-month period in 2017 and 2018. During the trial, the buses were charged 11,000 times with an average charge time of three minutes, travelled more than 100,000 kilometres, and saved well over 100 tonnes of CO2.19

TORONTO, ONTARIO

The Toronto Transit Commission, which operates 140 bus routes across the Greater Toronto Area, is maneuvering its way toward a 100% zero-emission fleet by 2042. Toronto’s transit fleet, which is the third most heavily used in North America, has already begun the electric transition by acquiring 10 new 40-foot battery-electric buses from a Canadian supplier20 in 2018 as part of its Green Bus Technology Plan.21 These buses will soon be joined by additional electric buses, bringing Toronto’s e-bus total to 60 by the end of 2019 22 —increasing to 907 zero-emission buses by 2027. The transit authority will purchase only zero-emission buses starting in 2025.

TARGET

MONTREAL TORONTO EDMONTON VANCOUVER

100% zero-emission transit by 204027

100% zero-emission transit by 2038-204229

No zero-emission targets but intends to implement a “phased strategy”31

Reducing carbon pollution by 80% by 2050 and powering its entire fleet by renewable energy by 205033


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EDMONTON, ALBERTA

Edmonton is also joining the move to electric buses, recently ordering 25 overnight-charging buses to operate on the city’s routes from 2020.23 Before committing, Edmonton commissioned one of the most in-depth feasibility studies of electric bus operation in North America. When faced with Edmonton’s steep river valleys and plummeting winter temperatures, the buses fared well, with the study concluding battery-electric buses could operate efficiently and cost-effectively even during a deep freeze.24 When plugged into Edmonton’s grid, a battery-electric bus is expected to emit 38% to 44% less CO2 than a diesel equivalent—and as the electricity gets cleaner, so will the buses.24

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA

While battery-electric buses are making their debut elsewhere in Canada, Vancouver has been successfully operating electric buses of a different kind for more than 70 years. Vancouver is home to 262 operational electric trolley buses—the third-largest such system in North America.25 This year, Vancouver is diversifying its electric fleet with the addition of four new on-the-go charging battery-electric buses purchased from Canadian manufacturers as part of a partnership between TransLink, Natural Resource Canada, Metro Vancouver, and BC Hydro. The pilot project is part of a pan-Canadian initiative led by the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC).26 The first of four buses and two high-powered, standardized overhead charging systems went into service on September 11, 2019 in Metro Vancouver, with six more on the way.

TOTAL RIDERS FLEET SIZE


429.5 million in 201728

533.2 million in 201730

87 million in 201732

407 million in 201734


1,837 in 201728

1,920 in 201730

1,032 in 201832

1,075 in 201634


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POWERING ELECTRIC VEHICLES

There are four ways electric buses can get their power. The top two are used by Battery Electric Buses.

Slow-charging

These buses charge slowly while not in use, usually overnight. The buses then operate all day on a single charge.

On-the-go rapid-charging

These charge (sometimes wirelessly) while passengers are getting on and off, usually at a central bus station or strategic stops along the route. The buses usually charge for five or six minutes every hour and, as a result, can operate continuously.

Trolley buses

They draw power continuously from overhead wires, rather than onboard batteries. Trolley buses can only operate where wires are installed over the entire route.

Hydrogen fuel cells

With the same electric power train as a battery bus, hydrogen fuel cell electric buses have a hydrogen fuel cell generator that produces power. Notably, Canada is home to several leaders in hydrogen fuel cell technology for buses, including Ballard Power Systems and Hydrogenics

Canada is home to multiple North-America-leading e-bus manufacturers that, as the world moves to electrify transit, are well-positioned to capitalize—provided transit authorities and policy makers seize the opportunity. Here are four companies in Canada driving the battery e-bus transition.

Lion Electric Company

Quebec-based Lion Electric Company is North America’s largest supplier of electric school buses, employing 135 people and manufacturing all of its buses in Canada. Lion has around 200 e-buses on roads across the continent, with around 80 in Canada. Lion’s electric school bus, the LionC, can be found on school runs across North America, with the most in California. And the number of Canadian children enjoying an all-electric commute will soon rise, with Lion recently agreeing to supply transit provider Keolis with 12 LionCs for its fleet of school buses in Montreal.

The company is also taking orders for two additional electric bus models: the LionA, a 26-seat mini-school bus with a 306-kilometre range, and the LionM, a mini-bus designed specifically for the paratransit market with a number of accessibility features.35

New Flyer Industries (NFI)

New Flyer was founded in Winnipeg in 1930 with just five employees and is now the largest bus manufacturer in North America. The company has a manufacturing plant in Winnipeg as well as four others in the U.S. A report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggested New Flyer is one of the biggest competitors for Chinese e-bus manufacturers BYD and Yutong in the U.S. market.2 New Flyer makes hybrid, trolley-electric, battery-electric, and fuel-cell electric buses including its “next generation” Xcelsior Charge battery-powered bus with a 420-kilometre range. Of the 41,000 buses serviced by New Flyer, 18% are powered in some capacity by batteries or electric motors (such as plug-in hybrids), while 4% are entirely zero-emission.36

Nova Bus

Nova Bus is a Quebec-based bus manufacturer with two manufacturing plants in Canada and one in the U.S. In 2011, the Volvo-owned company decided it was time to go electric, developing the battery-powered model ‘LFSe’ to join its range of diesel, hybrid, and natural-gas-powered buses.37 An 18-month trial of Nova’s battery-electric buses in 2017 and 2018 by Montreal’s transit authority saw the delivery of North America’s first on-the-go charging technology. The trial resulted in the order of four additional buses, which will join its fleet this year. B.C. transit provider TransLink has also decided to follow, piloting two 40-foot Nova buses in its Vancouver fleet over the first few months of 2019.

GreenPower Motor Company

Vancouver-based GreenPower is the only Canadian company to exclusively produce electric buses. The company sells a range of buses, which are manufactured in California and come in eight different models, including a school bus and 45-foot double-decker, two of which are in use at Victoria’s cruise ship terminal on Vancouver Island. With an expanding order book of over 120 buses, GreenPower intends to triple its production capacity over the next few years after leasing a new manufacturing facility in California. The company plans to focus its expansion on its mini-buses and school buses.38


16

Materials Extraction

Infrastructure Construction

Vehicle Manufacturing

Fuel Produciton

Infrastructure & Vehicle Operation

Vehicle &Infrastructure Maintenance

TTC’s first all-electric bus goes into service June 2019.

SUMMARY

As cities across Canada set targets to substantially cut emissions in the next two decades, the country’s transit authorities need to make decisions now to ensure they remain on track. With battery prices falling 79% between 2010 and 2017, e-buses are becoming increasingly competitive with diesel buses. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, transit providers will be able to drive away an e-bus for the same price as a diesel bus by 2030, while also saving hundreds of thousands on fuel costs over the bus’s lifetime.17

Increased and expanded public transit can improve Canadians’ quality of life, enhance affordability, and cut carbon pollution. The federal government has invested $3.4 billion in transit since 2016, and has committed another $20 billion over the next decade, which will be invested through bilateral agreements with provinces and territories.50

To ensure this next generation of investment maximizes long-term pollution reduction and cost-savings, it should include a focus on zero-emission transit fleets and associated fuelling infrastructure, complemented by innovative financing that bridges the higher capital cost of e-buses with the long-term cost-savings they deliver. 50

LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT INVOLVED IN TRANSPORTATION SERVICE DELIVERY


17

Life

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SOURCE: “Lifecycle ownership cost and environmental externality of alternative fuel options for transit buses.”Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2017, Vol. 57.

The following graphs illustrate that with external acquisition funding the on-going operating costs of vehicle life-cycle ownership are considerably lower with e-buses. Additional costs incurred by the use of diesel vehicles, such as poor air quality,

carbon emissions, and health impacts also support the case for e-buses. Accordingly, governments should support transit authorities in developing plans to achieve 100% zero-emission fleets.

Purchase costs Operating costsNO EXTERNAL FUNDING

EXTERNAL FUNDING PAYING FOR 80% OF BUS PURCHASE COSTS

$120,000

$100,000

$80,000

$60,000

$40,000

$20,000

0

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Rapid charging

e-bus

Slow charging e-bus

Diesel hybrid electric bus

Diesel Compressed Natural Gas

Biodiesel Liquefied Natural Gas

Rapid charging

e-bus

Slow charging e-bus

Diesel hybrid electric bus

Diesel Compressed Natural Gas

Biodiesel Liquefied Natural Gas

E-buses become the clear winner

once external funding helps to pay

upfront purchase costs


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AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 39,40,41,42

The emergence of autonomous vehicles represents the most significant change in transportation since the transition from horse-drawn carriages to motorized cars. And with the first driverless vehicles expected to be publicly available in the next decade, governments, cities and companies around the world are already contemplating the potential for massive change to our environment. Consequently, there remains enormous technical, legal and social challenges in implementing automated vehicles. MCPCC will be conducting consultations over the two-year period 2019-2021. The context of the consultations will be “How AVs will affect the world of work and the workplace”.

CONSULTATION SCOPE

The scope of the review is on automated vehicles which are capable of “driving themselves”. In other words, they can operate in an automated mode in which they are not controlled and do not need to be monitored by an individual, for at least part of a journey. This differs from driver assistance technology, which needs to be monitored by a human driver at all times.

The Society for Automotive Engineers International (“SAE”) has produced a six-level classification system for automated vehicles, ranging from 0 to 5. These “SAE levels” are widely used by industry and policymakers to provide a common international language for automated driving. These levels provide the context for our consultations.

LEVELS DEFINITION COMMENTS

HUMAN DRIVER MONITORS THE DRIVING ENVIRONMENT

Level 0 – No automation. The human driver performs all aspects of all driving tasks, even when these are enhanced by warning or intervention systems.

Human Driver for all aspects of driving

Level 1 – Driver assistance. The driver assistance features can carry out either the steering or acceleration/deceleration.

Human Driver with system capability for steering and acceleration/deceleration in some driving modes

Level 2 – Partial automation. The driver assistance features can carry out both steering and acceleration/deceleration. The driver is responsible for monitoring the driving environment and must remain engaged at all times.

Level 2 and below can be characterized as driver assistance: the automation is simply intended to assist a human driver, who remains fully responsible for performing the driving task.

Level 0-2 are out of scope for our consultation.

AUTOMATED DRIVING SYSTEM MONITORS THE DRIVING ENVIRONMENT

Level 3 – Conditional automation. The driving automation features can perform all driving tasks but a human “fallback”-ready user is expected to respond appropriately to “a request to intervene”, i.e. the vehicle will request human intervention when deemed necessary, so a driver must be ready to intervene at all times.

The “fallback”-ready user must be receptive to a handover request or to an evident system failure, but is not expected to monitor the driving environment.

Level 4 – High automation. The driving automation features can perform all the driving tasks within their “operational design domain” (i.e., motorways only). They are limited by different ‘driving modes’ where they cannot operate autonomously, such as in inclement weather, or on particular types of roads.

Many operational proposals of Level 4 fleets involve Operators being replaced by a fleet manager remotely monitoring and controlling vehicles to navigate through restrictive driving modes.

Level 3 & 4 are within the scope for the purposes of our consultation.

Level 5 – Full automation. Level 5 vehicles can be considered autonomous rather than automated, as there are no driving modes they cannot perform in, and human input will never be needed, even remotely.

There is skepticism towards whether it can actually be achieved or is just a theoretical concept paralleling artificial intelligence.

Level 5 is out of scope for the purposes of our consultation.


19

Our consultation relates to SAE Levels 3 and 4 within the following framework:

1. A vehicle which “drives itself” within an operational design domain, only being limited by different driving modes.

2. “User-in-charge” - where a vehicle is listed as capable of safely driving itself, and the automated driving system is correctly engaged, the human user would not be a driver. They would no longer be responsible for the immediate driving task. However, a human may still be called on to drive in certain circumstances. We refer to this person as the “user-in-charge”. The main role of the “user-in-charge” would be to take over in planned circumstances or after the vehicle has achieved a minimal risk condition and come to a stop.

3. A “fallback”-ready user – when operating at conditional automation, an AV is not designed to bring the vehicle to a safe stop when it encounters a system failure or reaches the limits of its operational design domain. At conditional automation a human (“fallback”-ready user) must take over driving in these circumstances. The requirement for a “fallback”-ready user distinguishes vehicles operating at conditional automation from vehicles operating at high or full automation, where the AVs can bring the vehicle to a safe stop.

CONSIDERATIONS

While we recognize that the future of AV technology is still uncertain, it is clear that significant resources are being invested into the industry to achieve widespread adoption. Many government agencies are beginning to take proactive approaches to managing AVs, further suggesting the likelihood of their commercialization in the coming decade. The future of AV transit vehicles specifically is further from the fore front of current predictions, and even more uncertain, but unquestionably progressing. At present, private automated shuttles on streets make up the majority of prototypes being developed.

The many uncertainties in the capabilities of the technology, the cost, the restrictions, and the timing for companies to develop a strategic plan and implementation currently provide an opportunity for individuals impacted by AVs to share their views. It is evident in the research that the greatest challenge facing commercial vehicle AV adoption is the need to reasonably replicate, via “artificial intelligence”, selected human sensory and decision-making processes. The magnitude of this challenge is illustrated by the following concerns:

Weather Conditions

Fog, heavy precipitation, snow accumulation, icy surfaces, salt spray, blowing leaves, etc.

Driving Environment

• Recognition of pedestrian status (motion, motorized, walker, wheelchair, dog-assisted, etc.) limited also by software inability to anticipate intent or interpret behaviour.

• Unpredictable cyclists, skateboarders, rollerblades, etc.

• Animal recognition and hazard level.

• Malfunctioning traffic lights, and right-of-way decisions.

• Hand signals (police-directed traffic, flag men, flagging riders, etc.)

• Avoidance of emergency vehicles in response mode.

• Temporary/emergency barriers and detours.

• Hazardous road conditions (significant potholes, tree branches, debris, etc.)

Rider Management

• Emergency medical/other assistance.

• Rider conduct (harassment, violence, vandalism, criminal acts, etc.)

• Technical

• Accident management, emphasizing rider safety and welfare, of all AV vehicle accidents.

• Cybersecurity capable of preventing hacker exploitation of systems.

• Resolving expeditiously incidents of vehicle breakdown and/or systems failure.

• A “Black Box” equivalent (quality and scope) vehicle/systems performance-monitoring system.

As noted, the research indicates that the implementation of Level 3 and Level 4 AVs in the bus industry poses numerous challenges and would prompt changes throughout the industry.

Reports summarizing consultation viewpoints will be published on our website periodically throughout the two-year period.


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RESEARCH FINDINGS

CURRENT STATE OF AVS

The most controversial and uncertain element in AV discussion is when and how the vehicles will reach public roads, which is dependent on the capabilities of the technology, affordability and ownership models, restrictiveness of responding legislation, and public perception. Vehicles in level 0-2 are already commonplace and operate freely on roads in Canada. Level 3 and Level 4 vehicles are currently being tested in designated areas. There is almost always a requirement for a driver to be present to take control should the system fail. As an alternative the vehicles are tested in designated lanes or areas with extremely low traffic.

Google’s Waymo is currently testing Level 5 vehicles that do not need any method of driver control in a closed environment and has announced it will be expanding its Level 5 testing to public roads after approval from State regulators soon. The vast majority predict the commercial arrival of AVs within the range of 2020-2025. This range mirrors the dates several major auto manufacturers have announced for their plan to complete development of either Level 3 or Level 4 technology, with only Volvo and Tesla projecting Level 4 before 2020. Predictions for widespread adoption of AVs generally fall within the range of 2030-2040. The arrival of AVs within transit networks is a largely unprecedented subject with very little evidence for a meaningful prediction to be made, but it can be assumed that it will closely follow that of personal AVs.

Automated Bus Preparedness – NFI Group

NFI, recognized by the business community as “the largest bus manufacturer in North America” and “the Industry leader in zero emission electric bus deployments” has announced the launch of

the Autonomous Technology Program centered on “development and deployment of technology for Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADS) and Automated Vehicles (AV), with a guiding principle focused on public safety”.

City of Montreal Introduces Driverless Shuttle to Test Autonomous Vehicle Technology

The announcement in May 2019 cited an exclusive partnership with the U.S. entity Robotic Research, with the stated objective of “advancing autonomous technology through developing and employing ADS in heavy-duty transit bus applications,” initially directed to SAE Standard Level 4 criteria.

Also, in May 2019 NFI announced the acquisition of U.K. bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL). “ADL is the UK’s leading bus manufacturer and the leading global manufacturer of double-deck buses, with an established international presence.” ADL’s current markets include the U.K./Europe, the Asia Pacific, and to a lesser extent, North America; substantially expanding NFI’s global presence.

Additionally, and significantly, ADL is the manufacturer of a U.K. prototype for a 42-passenger single-deck autonomous coach now undergoing trials to enable compliance to SAE Level 4 Standards. The advanced stage of this project should substantially contribute to the progress of NFI’s ambitions relative to autonomous-bus manufacturing and deployment/sales. Forecasting positively, it seems reasonable to assume that NFI could at an early date become the dominant autonomous-bus manufacturer in North America, and a major player elsewhere.

City of Calgary introduces driverless shuttle to test autonomous vehicle technology

“ELA, or electronic autonomous”

Transdev introduces driverless shuttle in Montreal

Driverless Shuttle Testing


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LIMITATIONS OF AVS

While a key argument for AVs is that their ability to monitor their environment surpasses what a human can detect, their ability to understand complex situations is currently lacking. Most of the vehicles presently being tested simply come to a halt when an obstacle comes before them, but in the example of a piece of light plastic waste that has blown onto the road, abruptly stopping could be significantly less safe than colliding with the obstacle. This limitation encroaches on a key unknown of how AVs will weigh factors in cost benefit analyses when a collision with one thing or another is unescapable.

A uniform challenge for AV manufacturers has been managing inclement weather, with snowy conditions being particularly disruptive to performance. Should this barrier not be addressed, it would significantly limit the viability of AVs in Canadian climates. In a similar capacity, bright lights and reflective surfaces have been proven to be capable of disorienting an AV system, as demonstrated with a highly publicized crash of a Tesla vehicle on auto pilot that failed to identify a white truck in its path.

AV technology to date is associated with electrically powered vehicles. In its current state of development if AV technology was to be deployed on buses this would require charging stations at transit terminals. Electric bus technology has yet to reach a point where a full day’s worth of revenue service could be achieved with a single charge. This requirement for recharging may result in increased operational cost and also additional run time/buses would need to offset the time required for charging.

AV LEGISLATION

Being a new and unprecedented technology, AVs have largely been unaddressed by legislative bodies. Policies that do exist occur sporadically throughout North America and the rest of the world. Below is a summary of key steps towards legislating AVs, both locally and abroad.

• On October 13, 2015, the Government of Ontario filed Reg. 306/15 under the Highway Traffic Act, permitting testing of AVs on select Ontario highways, provided applicants adhere to all specifications and restrictions set out. This came into effect January 1, 2016, and the first large scale applicants were approved in November of the same year.

• In September, 2016, the US Department of Transportation released a federal policy intended to accelerate the implementation of AVs and provide common standards and regulatory tools to be used at state level.

• The Government of Canada has yet to release a policy for AVs, but it is possible that with the release from the US DOT, a similar policy may be produced in Canada.

• As of 2019, 40 states and Washington D.C. have enacted legislation or issued Executive Orders related to AV’s. The legislation in all states regulates the safe testing and deployment/operation of AV’s on public roads.

• The state of Michigan has passed four bills that together create a globally leading policy to further the adoption of AVs. The most differentiating component of these bills is that they allow for the testing of AVs that are driverless or completely without a steering wheel and pedals. This is an unprecedented policy that removes a lot of barriers to testing. Equally important is that the policy is passed in the state of Michigan where the US car industry is concentrated.

• The City of Toronto currently has no official position or any policies concerning AVs, but is currently directing an AV working group to identify impacts that may necessitate new or modified policies.

AVS IN PUBLIC TRANSIT

While the contemporary image of an automated vehicle is typically a personal automobile, considerable industry efforts, as well as government-funded research, for higher capacity AVs are being put forth. Transit agencies are refraining from working directly with automated vehicles, instead 3rd party pilots that supplement existing service are most commonly observed. Research into automated transit vehicles is still in its infancy, but a summary of available information follows below.

The majority of larger on-street AVs being developed and tested are shuttles that can hold 10-12 people on average, and operate at average speeds of 20-25 km/h. These shuttles are almost exclusively electrically-powered with lithium batteries. Testing occurs mostly in low-traffic areas like business parks or university campuses, on fixed routes of only a few kilometers. Most instances of testing require a driver to be present and monitoring the system’s performance. Hailing has been tested in a variety of ways, including e-hailing through an app, connected stop infrastructure that signals the vehicle, stopping at every stop along the route, and Operator interpretation, but there is little data as to which have proved effective. The Mercedes-Benz Future Bus is the only prominent example of a full-sized automated bus and has yet to have had test data made public. Tesla, an industry leader of AVs, has announced plans to expand into public transit vehicles in future years.

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PART FOUR

PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT

URBAN TRANSIT

FEDERAL

Through the Public Transit Infrastructure Fund, Budget 2016 focused on making immediate investments of $3.4 billion over three years, to upgrade and improve public transit systems across Canada.

To support the next phase of ambitious public transit projects, through Budget 2017 the Government committed to invest $25.3 billion over the next decade, including $5 billion invested by the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

Through new bilateral agreements with provinces and territories, the Public Transit stream will provide provinces, territories and municipalities with funding to address the new construction, expansion, and improvement and rehabilitation of public transit infrastructure, and active transportation projects.

These investments will help to improve commutes, cut air pollution, strengthen communities and grow Canada’s economy.

In addition to this funding a number of provinces have also committed significant resources.

ALBERTA

A recent announcement from the Government of Alberta finds $215 million invested in various transit projects across 17 municipalities. $101.8 million of the $215 million investment will go towards the Calgary Metropolitan Region to fund the purchase of 15 new Light Rail Vehicles and 52 compressed natural gas buses. $95.4 million will go to funding transit projects in the Edmonton Metropolitan Region, while the remaining $17.8 million will be dispersed throughout 15 different Albertan communities.

Over the first three years, $141.4 million worth of the grants will be funded through the Climate Leadership Plan.

BRITISH COLUMBIA43

In 2016, the TransLink Board and Mayors’ Council approved the Phase One Plan, which funded the first phase of transportation improvements in a 10-Year Vision. The Phase One Plan included improvements to the transit system to reduce overcrowding and increase service quality so that people could travel across the region more quickly and conveniently. The Phase One Plan also provided new funding for roads, cycling, and walking infrastructure and project development for rapid transit expansion.

Building on the success and momentum of the Phase One Plan, the TransLink Board and Mayors’ Council is proceeding with the Phase Two Plan, which funds the second phase of transportation improvements in the 10-Year Vision. The Phase Two Plan is an historic investment in transportation infrastructure and transit service in this region and will transform how people travel.


23

PART FOUR

PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT

2018 – 2027 Investment plan

The Phase Two Plan funds the second phase of transportation improvements in the 10-Year Vision, including:

• Construction and operation of the Surrey-Newton-Guildford Line (Light Rail Transit)

• Construction and operation of the Millennium Line Broadway Extension

• Modernization of Expo-Millennium Line infrastructure, including significant capacity and reliability upgrades to systems and stations, and additional SkyTrain cars for the Expo and Millennium lines to increase capacity and accommodate growth

• Project development and potential early works for the Surrey-Langley Line (Light Rail Transit)

• A 7% increase in HandyDART service, 8% increase in bus service and 42% increase in rail service across the region

• Two new B-Line routes, as well as transit priority and enhanced passenger amenities on other new B-Lines from the 10-Year Vision

• New funding to municipalities for upgrades to walking and cycling infrastructure, such as sidewalks and bikeways

• New funding to municipalities for upgrades to major roads, including seismic upgrades

• Planning for a potential gondola to SFU Burnaby campus and rapid transit to UBC Point Grey campus

The Phase Two Plan includes funding from all levels of government: federal, provincial, and regional. The Government of Canada and Government of British Columbia have committed an unprecedented amount of funding to cost-share the new transportation investments in the Phase Two Plan.

TransLink has requested:

• $2.0 billion from the Government of Canada for the capital costs of Phase Two projects, and

• $2.5 billion from the Government of British Columbia for their commitment to contribute 40% of the capital costs of Phase Two projects. With the availability of this new federal and provincial funding, the region has a chance to improve the transportation system at a significantly reduced burden to local taxpayers.

As a result of the investments in the Phase Two Plan, transit ridership is forecast to increase from 248 million journeys in 2017 to 316 million journeys in 2027. By 2027, people in the region will make an estimated 42 million more journeys per year by

transit than they would without the Phase Two Plan investments.

2017 Ridership actual 247.8 million

2018 Ridership forecast 251.7 million

2027 Ridership forecast without phase two 274.1 million

2027 Ridership forecast with phase two 316.3 million

TransLink anticipates developing a Phase Three Plan in the coming years, which would fund 10-Year Vision expansion projects for the remaining years of 2022-2026. This would include all the remaining bus, rail, walking, cycling, and road improvements in the 10-Year Vision, including construction and operation of the Surrey-Langley Line.

ONTARIO

Ontario’s government announced a commitment to build better public transit and transportation infrastructure, deliver faster service – and put people first by making public transit an attractive, affordable and low-stress alternative for individuals and families. The financial investment is estimated at $28.5 billion for various projects throughout Ontario including four rapid transit projects in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) making up $11.2 billion of the total fund.

These include:

• A proposed new Ontario Line to help relieve overcrowding on the Yonge-University-Spadina Line in Toronto

• Axtending the Yonge Subway Line to Richmond Hill and Markham and the Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail Transit Line further west into Etobicoke, as well as completing the Scarborough Subway Extension

• Stage 2 of Ottawa’s Light Rail Transit project

• Promoting economic development and meeting local transportation needs in the North by reviewing opportunities for bus, passenger rail and rail freight services in Northern Ontario

• Moving towards two-way, all-day service every 15 minutes on core segments of the GO Transit rail network

• Improving service through the largest increase in GO Transit rail services in five years, including more trips per day, introducing route expansion and looking at the feasibility of providing flexible food and beverage services across the GO Transit rail network

• Allowing kids age 12 and under to travel free of charge on all GO Transit trains and buses.


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QUEBEC

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) was elected in October 2018. The highlights of the CAQ’s transportation plan included:

• The extension of the Metro Blue line.

• The scrapping of plans for the Metro Pink line.

• The extension of the LRT to Chambly on the South Shore and to Laval, north of Montreal.

• The introduction of tax incentives for carpooling.

• The widening of Highway 30 to three lanes between Highways 10 and 20, for public transit.

In June 2019, Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante struck a deal to build the western portion of her promised Pink line, agreeing to transfer federal infrastructure money for Quebec City’s tramway in order to secure provincial support. She announced plans to build a tramway line from downtown to Lachine, in the city’s west end. In exchange, Montreal will deliver $800 million to Quebec City, to help pay for the provincial capital’s proposed $3.3-billion tramway network. The western portion of the Pink line will now be added to the government’s ten-year Quebec Infrastructure Plan (QIP). The government has added $5 billion to the $110-billion QIP budget for 2020 to 2030.

SCHOOL BUS

According to the National Collision Database (NCDB) statistics, school buses are the safest means of transporting students to and

from school. As of 2018, students are about 80 times more likely to get to school safely on a school bus than by car.

Fatalities on school buses account for less than 0.1% of all motor vehicle-related fatalities in Canada. In the last decade, between 2009 and 2018, there was 1 school bus passenger fatality on Canadian roads.

Note: data were filtered to identify school-related purpose, i.e. weekdays (Mon-Fri), school months (Sept-June), and school related hours.

As of September 1st, 2020, a school bus equipped with seat belts will need to meet the technical requirements for installation under the Motor Vehicle Safety Regulations and cannot be equipped with lap belts only.

Funding Concerns

While there is significant government support and funding for changes to Canada’s public transit network, delivery of school bus services continues to lag behind in the level of required public funding.

In Ontario, based on the industry’s recent financial report, the Ontario School Bus Association (OSBA) anticipates a $141 million annual funding gap arising from the minimum wage increase and changing market conditions. If this funding gap is not addressed, OSBA estimates further negative impacts on driver retention and operational effectiveness. 44

PART FIVE

RIDERSHIP AND SERVICE

25

In 2017, more than 23 million Canadians lived in areas with transit service. In that year, transit ridership in Canada exceeded 2.1 billion passenger trips, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.6% since 2008. In 2016, the Census found that 12.4% of Canadian workers took transit to work, a significant increase from levels in 2006 (11%) and 1996 (10.1%).

The availability of transit service has increased steadily across Canada in recent years, with the number of revenue vehicle hours growing at an annual average rate of 1.96% from 2008 to 2017.

Capital funding for Canada’s transit systems has also grown, both to meet the need for repair and replacement of ageing infrastructure and to make up for many years of underinvestment in transit expansion. Total capital investment in 2017 reached $8.1 billion, up from $4.2 billion in 2009 45.

Canadian conventional transit ridership continues to surpass 2 billion passenger trips. In 2017, 103 CUTA transit system members reported 2.10 billion passenger trips which is an increase of more than 2.5% reported revenue passenger trips following a 5 year period of plateauing. 2017 marks the first year that CUTA received counts of ridership from metropolitan bus

services through Exo in Montréal, Québec which accounts for approximately 20 million trips that were uncounted in the past. An analysis of normalized Canadian transit ridership data shows that Canadian ridership increased by approximately 1.5% from 2016 to 2017 alone.

*Only Transit systems who have recorded for the majority of the bench marking years have been included

FIGURE 3: RIDERSHIP TRENDS - REGULAR SERVICE

PART FIVE

RIDERSHIP AND SERVICE

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

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0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1.741.8 1.8

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TRANSIT RIDERSHIP

TRANSIT SERVICE PROVIDED

TRANSIT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

2.15

2.10

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1.95

1.90

1.85

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51

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2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

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PART SIX

EMPLOYMENT COSTS

27

Bus OperatorsMechanics/MaintenanceOther

The breakdown of employees by position has remained consistent since 2012. Overall, bus drivers make up 67% of employees. This is lowest in the urban bus sector (52%) and highest in the school and employee bus sector (90%). On average, employees in the urban transit sector ($101,351) and interurban and rural

bus sector ($61,591) are compensated considerably more than in other sectors, particularly relative to school and employee bus transportation employees ($25,897), however it should be noted that the majority of school bus employees are part-time.

PART SIX

EMPLOYMENT COSTS

67%

27%

6%


28

BUS INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS OVERALL AND BY SECTOR (2017)46

Total # employees %Drivers %Mechanics %Other employees Average

expenditure per employee

Urban transit systems 61,528 52% 7% 41% $101,351

Interurban and rural bus transportation

2,809 62% 9% 29% $61,591

School and employee bus transportation

42,033 90% 4% 6% $25,897

Charter and sightseeing bus industries

6,004 60% 6% 34% $35,367

Other transit and ground passenger transportation

6,096 73% 2% 25% $44,169

Total Bus industry (2017) 118,469 67% 6% 27% $67,351

PART SEVEN

LABOUR MARKET IMPACT

29

AGEING WORKFORCE

The ageing population will disproportionately affect the bus industry, where bus drivers make up 68% of the total workforce and have a median age of 51.7. It is projected that roughly 40% of the workforce will retire in the next 10 years, and while it is projected that supply will meet demand, fewer new drivers may put a strain on driver training programs.

SCHOOL BUS RECRUITMENT

The school bus industry has been challenged in recruiting and retaining bus operators. In Ontario, the province chose to incentivize eligible school bus operators up to $3,000 in bonuses over periods spanning January 2018-June 2019. A total of $60M funding went to the Ontario School Bus Association to administer the school bus driver retention bonus program.

SUSTAINABILITY OF INTERURBAN AND RURAL BUS COMPANIES

The interurban and rural bus sector has not been profitable since 2011 showing a net loss of $104M from 2008 to 2016. Losses in 2016 were the second highest during that period and at $24M it represented 3.3% of total operating and non-operating revenue. Over that same period, the number of companies shrank from 22 in 2012 to 13 in 2016.47

There has since been contraction in one of Canada’s oldest operators. In 2018 declines in ridership led Greyhound Canada to cancel routes in nearly all of Western Canada, as well as some in Ontario and Quebec.48 In British Columbia, some routes were preserved through $2M in interim funding and are being operated by BC Transit.49 Greyhound stated that ridership dropped 41% nationwide since 2010 and 8% in Western Canada alone in 2017. They explained that the decline in ridership was due to increased car ownership, subsidies to competing passenger carriers, competition from low cost airlines and regulatory restrictions.

PART SEVEN

LABOUR MARKET IMPACT

30

This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in ground passenger transportation activities (such as urban transit systems, school, interurban and rural bus transportation). Transit and ground passenger transportation accounted for only 20% of production but 37% of employment, making this segment the most labour intensive. Transit and ground passenger transportation is also strongly influenced by the degree of urbanization and the associated demand for public transit systems across major cities in Canada.

With the collapse of crude oil prices in 2014, fuel costs are projected to remain low over the short- to medium-term, resulting in lower prices and/or higher profits in the industry.

Furthermore, the industry will continue to benefit from the gradual displacement of the Canadian population toward urban centers over the coming years, increasing the need to ease road congestion with more public transit services. A desire to decrease emissions and pollution is also expected to entice more commuters to use environmentally-friendly public transit systems. This demand should be met in part by major commuter-rail projects under construction in Edmonton, Toronto and Ottawa.

The industry strives to improve its services so that growing customer expectations are reasonably met in the areas of reliability, safety, comfort and affordability. This is seen by many industry stakeholders as an exceptional challenge as they also must contend with a number of significant business and economic issues, some beyond their operational control.

These include but are not limited to:

• Ageing and/or inadequate fleets and related infrastructure

• Automobile competitor dominance

• Funding inadequacies

• New technology costs

• Prohibitive operating/capital costs escalation

• Declining student populations

• Increased safety and security issues including growing violence

The substantial long-term government investment in urban transit infrastructure including the progressive upgrading of fleets, will enable this sub-sector to provide a modern, accessible network of bus services to meet 21st century expectations/requirements. Development of quality partnerships with governments, other key stakeholders and capital investors is also crucial to further success.

The industry still has substantial work to do to overcome the negative public perception of bus and coach travel. It is therefore imperative that the industry is enabled to work in a stable and fiscally supportive legislative environment. Most important, that all stakeholders commit to delivering a high quality of transportation services that meet or exceed the legitimate needs and reasonable expectations of the public which it serves.

While the outlook for the bus industry labour market appears fairly stable through 2026, there are significant social and technological factors, in terms of an ageing workforce and AVs, respectively, which will likely cause significant change. These issues, in addition to the stability of the interurban and rural bus industry, the ongoing challenges of school bus companies recruiting drivers, and other emerging challenges will be explored over the coming months.

PART EIGHT

CONCLUSION


31

PART EIGHT

CONCLUSION

ENDNOTES

1. Labour Force Survey – Data Tables

2. Job Vacancy Statistics – Data Tables

3. Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours – Data Tables

4. Job Vacancy and Wage Survey – Data Tables

5. Employment Insurance Statistics – Data Tables

6. Table 14-10-0337-01 Employment insurance beneficiaries (regular benefits) by province, territory and occupation, monthly, seasonally adjusted

7. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0081-01 Financial performance of the passenger bus and urban transit industries, by industry

8. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0088-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, revenue, selected provinces and regions

9. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0085-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, operating revenue, by Industry (x 1,000)

10. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0082-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, capital expenditures, by industry (x 1,000)

11. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0086-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, equipment operated, by industry and type of vehicle

12. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0084-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, fuel consumption, by industry (x 1,000)

13. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0087-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, maintenance cost, by type of vehicle

14. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0083-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, employment and compensation, by industry

15. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0078-01 Large urban transit statistics, revenue and passenger trips based on 10 major Canadian urban transit operators (x 1,000,000)

16. ESDC – Canadian Occupational Projection System

17. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “The Electric Vehicle Outlook” 2019, “Electric Buses in Cities Driving Towards Cleaner Air and Lower CO2” March 2018

18. Poon, Linda. “How China Took Charge of the Electric Bus Revolution.” City Lab. May 8, 2018.

19. Société de transport de Montréal. “STM orders four new fast charging electric buses.” September 17, 2018.

20. New Flyer Industries. “Toronto Transit Commission orders up to 40 battery-electric buses from New Flyer.” Accessed: February 25, 2019. https://www.newflyer.com/2018/06/toronto-transitcommission-orders-up-to-40-battery-electric-buses-from-new-flyer/.

21. Leary, Rick and Case, Bem. TTC 2018-2040 Green Bus Technology Plan. November 2017.

22. Toronto Transit Commission. TTC Green Initiatives. Accessed: February 25, 2019. https://www.ttc.ca/Riding_the_TTC/green_ initiatives.jsp.

23. The City of Edmonton. “Electric Buses Make Edmonton a Canadian leader.” https://www.edmonton.ca/projects_plans/ transit/electric-buses.aspx. Accessed: February 25, 2019.

24. Marcon for the City of Edmonton. Electric Bus Feasibility Study. June 2016.

25. TransLink. Fleet and Technologies. Accessed: February 25, 2019. https://www.translink.ca/About-Us/Corporate-Overview/ Operating-Companies/CMBC/Fleet-and-Technologies.aspx.

26. TransLink. “TransLink launches new electric bus trial.” Accessed: February 2019, 2019. https://www.translink.ca/AboutUs/Media/2018/April/TransLink-launches-new-electric-bus-trial.aspx.

27. Société de transport de Montréal. Sustainable Development Plan 2025. 2017.

28. Société de transport de Montréal. Rapport annuel 2017.

29. Toronto Transit Commission. TTC Green Initiatives. Accessed: February 25, 2019. https://www.ttc.ca/Riding_the_TTC/green_ initiatives.jsp.

30. Toronto Transit Commission. System Quick Facts. Accessed: February 25, 2019. https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Operating_ Statistics/2017/sectionone.jsp.

31. The City of Edmonton. Edmonton’s Transit Strategy. July 2017.

32. Edmonton Transit Service. ETS Statistics for 2017-2019. Accessed: February 25, 2019. https://www.edmonton.ca/ets/etsstatistics.aspx

33. Renewable Cities. “TransLink, Metro Vancouver’s transit operator, sets a 100% renewable energy target.” Accessed: February 25, 2019. https://www.renewablecities.ca/newsupdates/translink-sets-100-renewable-energy-target.

34. TransLink. Fleet and Technologies. Accessed: February 25,2019. https://www.translink.ca/About-Us/Corporate-Overview/Operating-Companies/CMBC/Fleet-and-Technologies.aspx.

35. Lion Electric Company. Accessed February 2019. https://thelionelectric.com/en.

36. New Flyer Industries. About New Flyer. Accessed: February 2019. https://www.newflyer.com/company/about/.

37. Nova Bus. Accessed: February 2019. http://novabus.com/.

38. GreenPower Motor Company. Accessed: February 2019. https://www.greenpowerbus.com/.

39. Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of Work in Canada. Information and Communications Technology Council (ICTC). Ottawa,Canada)

40. Law Commission London England 2019

41. Implications of Automated Vehicles for TTC

42. NFI Press Releases

43. Phase 2 Ten Year Vision 2018-2027 Investment Plan June 28, 2018

44. A new vision for student transportation April 2018

45. CUTA 2017 Canadian Conventional Transit Statistics

46. Statistics Canada. Table 23-10-0083-01 Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries, employment and compensation, by industry

47. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2310008101

48. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-greyhound-cancels-most-routes-in-western-canada/

49. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-new-bus-service-in-northern-bc-willhelp-fill-gaps-left-by-greyhound/

50. Clean Energy Canada, “Will Canada Miss the Bus”. March 2019

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