Dr Simon Boucher ~ bouches@tcd.ie

End of yearReview

Government and Politics of the USAWeek 4 TT:

Tell me…

• 3 things you liked most about the course?

• 3 things you’d change / get rid of?

• What advice would you give to next year’s students?

What did you really think?

• Review of the year. We’ve covered sooo much… What was most important?

• Revision and exam day advice

• Election 2008 – what’s been happening and where we are going

Today

Highlights of our year

• Demonstrate strong familiarity with America’s principal political institutions

• Appreciate the founding principles and constitutional framework of the US system

• Understand contentious policy issues which dominate contemporary US political discourse

• Understand US electoral and policy processes

What I said you’d learn

Develop DEEP understanding of the 2008 US Presidential election campaign

~ AND ~

By the end of the course you’d be able to…

Term 1

• The Constitution

• Federalism

• The Presidency

• The media

Some very important subjects

Term 2

• Parties

• Congress

• Elections

• Interest groups

• Policies

Term 3

• Controversies

Revision

6 & a half weeks to go

is loads of time…

If you’re organised

Two things to bear in mind…

%

Only 25% of

Marks awarded so far

Everything’s to play for…

• Work to a timetable

• Practice - under exam conditions

• Pool essays, work together

• At the beginning of each revision session go back over what was done in the previous session

• Know… Dates, names, institutions, cases, articles

Revision common sense

• Structure• Practice opportunity • It is in no way a guide to the content of this

year’s summer exam• Which questions are most useful?

Ques 3, 4, 5, 8, 9… But not necessarily word-for-word or the specifics of the questions

The 2007 past paper

How useful is the 2007 exam paper?

Including reference to 2008 in the exam

Exam Day advice

• Date: Wednesday 4th of June

• Location:Sportshall

• Time: 9.30am

• Length: 3 hours

• Format: Answer 4 questions from 11,

all equal marks

• Issues: One of your last exams?

Exam day logistics

• Get a good night’s sleep. You really need a clear head for exams! Rest is scientifically proven to be of more help than late night cramming…

• Have a good breakfast. Food gives your brain energy!

• Get to campus early- never trust public transport for summer exams!

• Find a quiet spot away from others and focus carefully on studying your notes

Before the exam…

• Read the questions carefully. Then read them again! Don’t start writing till you’re sure you know what is being looked for

• Never do more or less than the required number of questions

• Employ your time strategy. Bring a watch on the day of the exam and keep it on the desk. Keep an eye on it throughout.

• Bring food / drink with you. Keep your strength up throughout

• Pay no attention to those around you – asking for more paper, making noise, etc- concentrate entirely on your work.

In the exam…

There is no “one right” way to manage exam time. But you have to have a plan for managing your time, that accounts for…

• Question selection• Brief feasibility assessment• Serious question planning• Writing your answer• Reviewing your answer• Bathroom breaks

Time management

3 hours = 180 minutes

There is no “one right” way to manage exam time. But you have to have a plan for managing your time, that accounts for…

• Question selection 15 mins

• Brief feasibility assessment 3 mins• Serious question planning 7 mins• Writing your answer 25 mins• Reviewing your answer 5 mins

• Bathroom break! 5 mins

Time management

3 hours = 180 minutes

• Good time management requires practice. Develop a plan, then test drive and tweak it. Do NOT wait and see what feels right on the day!

• If you’re running out of time, its better to leave a question unfinished and go onto your final question. If you’ve no time to do the last question, write some notes about it in summary form

Time management

• Do NOT leave early! The cardinal sin of all exams… If you’ve spare time think creatively about the questions. You never know what you’ll eventually come up with...

• Don’t hang around afterwards - what good is there in post mortems once you’re done? Forget it and move on to the next exam (or go to the Pav if you are finished)

After the exam…

Contentof a

good examscript

What’s in a good exam script?

• Argument • Structure• Content• Presentation

Structure

• Introduction: Very clear introduction that sets parameters of essay, describes structure, highlighting argument (no surprises should appear after this!)

• Body: Very clear sections, logically sequenced, which interlink and clearly develop the overall argument. Convince the reader!

• Conclusion: Summary of your approach, key points, draw overall conclusions, and perhaps a punchy finish!

Argument

A good argument is…• Relevant to the question

• Clearly stated from the beginning

• Clearly parameterised, yet comprehensive

• Coherently developed

• Synthesizes a range of material

• Appropriately grounded in any relevant theory

• Acknowledges and deals with opposing views

• Is convincing, original and interesting!

• Try to remember which authors proposed which concepts, models, frameworks, etc. and quote their names

• When relevant, make specific reference to…– Constitutional articles and amendments– Supreme Court cases– Institutions and rules– Elections and politicians

Content

• Few if any of your exam questions will directly refer to the 2008 elections

• However some questions on the paper do lend themselves to making reference to 2008; extra grades can be earned when appropriate references are made that support your argument

• However any such references must be – Genuinely relevant – Well-informed– Balanced– Where possible supported by fact

2008 and the exam

• Structure your essay questions carefully, in clear sections.

• Neat, clear handwriting is absolutely crucial. If your exam cannot be read, it cannot be corrected.

• Format your paper clearly– Use subheadings– Underline key terms– bullet if appropriate

• Keep sentences and paragraphs short

Presentation

Examiners are always sub-consciously well disposed towards a neatly presented paper.

• Take up too much time answering one question / not answering enough questions

• Not reading the question properly, misinterpreting it

• Failing to outline and develop a relevant argument

Reasons for poor performance

5th of June, here you come!!!

Pennsylvaniaand beyond

• Population: 12m (6th highest in US)• Biggest state since Texas & Ohio• 158 Democratic delegates up for grabs• Added significance, as is a traditional swing state which the Democrats

MUST carry

Pennsylvania background

• Overwhelmingly white, working class, older electorate – perfect territory for Hillary?

• State primary rules favour Hillary – closed primary, plus voter registration closed on March 24th

• Huge voter interest – 4m have enrolled to vote in this closed primary

• A narrowing race – in early March, Obama said “coming within 10% would be a victory” – now Clinton only 5% ahead

The Pennsylvania primary

Can this primary be decisive?

The Pennsylvania primary

Clinton’s shrinking poll leads – Ohio & Pennsylvania

Debate on Weds night raised multiple issues…

• Obama’s association with Jeremiah Wright

• Obama’s refusal to wear an American flag lapel pin

• His comment that "bitter" small town Pennsylvanians "cling to guns and religion"

• His "friendly" relations with William Ayers

Barack’s bad week

Obama now experiencing the front-runner pressure Hillary experienced last Autumn

Why is “Bittergate” significant?

• Obama is judged on words as has less of a record- we read more into it

• Plays into hands of liberal stereotype – “he doesn’t ‘get’ white working class America” etc

• Also links to Hillary’s experience issue – “you know me, you don’t know him well enough” – what else will we find out?

• Impact so far…– Little hit in Democratic primary polls– But starting to give Republicans their case -

“elitist, out-of-touch, inexperienced Obama”

“Bittergate”

• Hillary has been ahead here from the beginning… winning is no longer enough

• Needs a big margin to give momentum that justifies staying in the race

• Her arguments – questions Obama’s experience, also his toughness, patriotism, casts him as elitist and out-of-touch with small-town America

• Her goal – plant further seeds of doubt about Obama’s viability in blue-collar swing states

• Can only be decisive for her with a huge swing

Hillary’s strategy

Hillary MUST win… And it MUST be EMPHATIC

• Obama massively outspending Hillary - $2.2m… Per week! Has reserved 5 times more ad spots than her in the final week of the campaign

• Still drawing the crowds – 35,000 on Friday night

• Needs to show he can do reasonably well in white, blue collar demographics

• Needs to maintain leads in delegates / total number of votes cast

Obama’s strategy

Minimise Hillary’s Pennsylvania margin, undermine her justification for continuing

Obama leads in…• Pledged delegates• Primary votes accrued• Number of primaries and

caucuses won• National polls vs. Hillary• National polls vs. McCain• Fundraising

…Plus Obama has shown he can survive issues such as Jeremiah Wright

Hillary needs either…• A political bombshell that

destroys Obama• An incredibly unlikely

Convention turnaround, that would split the Democratic Party in two

• Can only win if super delegates overrule voters

SIMON SAYS:Obama will win the nomination…

But the fight won’t end until Hillary gives up.

Placing our bets….

• Continues to out-poll his party… But polls not realistic yet

• Strategists believe his appeal to independents can make him competitive in up to 24 swing states - twice as many as 2004

• Building his team – 100 staff last month, now 150 staff

• Democratic race means he has to strategise for two different campaigns

• Age continues to be a concern – should he declare a one-term Presidency?

• Ongoing Dem fight making him irrelevant?

Where’s John McCain?

All the advantages still lie with the Democrats…• The economy is crashing• The Iraq stalemate• 8 years of GOP, plus Bush’s low popularity• GOP voters apathetic, Dem voters psyched up• Dems will have the more appealing candidate?• Fundraising massively favours them

Could the Dems throw it away? Potentially if…• Fight gets bloody in the convention• It appears as if the nominee “stole” the nomination• The nominee is mortally wounded from the primaries• The losing candidate’s supporters defect

General election predictions…

Simon’s 2008 prediction……

Thanks for a great year….Good luck in the exams and keep following US politics!