dr robert phaal - introduction to technology roadmapping and the t-plan method

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Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method Best Practice Workshop: Technology Roadmapping Brno, 5 February 2013 Dr Robert Phaal Centre for Technology Management Topics History and concept of roadmapping Example roadmaps Generalisation and customisation Workshop methods

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Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method Best Practice Workshop: Technology Roadmapping Brno, 5 February 2013 Dr Robert Phaal (Centre for Technology Management)

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Page 1: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Best Practice Workshop: Technology RoadmappingBrno, 5 February 2013

Dr Robert PhaalCentre for Technology Management

Topics

• History and concept of roadmapping

• Example roadmaps

• Generalisation and customisation

• Workshop methods

Page 2: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Business Premier Database, Beeton, D (2007)

20051952

0

2500

1945 CTM research•‘‘‘‘Fast-start’’’’• Customisation

• Integration

• Visualisation

1987Motorola

1991ITRS

1997Philips,EIRMA

2003UN

2014?

Information

structure

Graphical

style

Roadmap

‘‘‘‘lens’’’’Business /

strategic issue

Roadmaps as ‘‘‘‘strategic lenses ’’’’

Understanding &

communication

Page 3: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Subcarrier function

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991Year

Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

PRODUCTS

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

Stereo Plus:

Scan

Seek

Plus:

Personal paging

Plus:

Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controls

A NEW SERVICE

Super Hi Fi

Local maps

Motorola Roadmap Matrix

Source: Willyard & McClees, 1987

Report + summary graphic Updated frequently

Consensus-based roadmap + ‘‘‘‘minority report ’’’’

Lucent Technologies technology roadmap

Albright & Kappel (2003)

Page 4: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Lucent Technologies technology roadmapping approach

Source: Richard Albright The Albright Strategy Group, www.albrightstrategy.com

Philips (modern ‘‘‘‘standard ’’’’ format)

EIRMA, 1997

Page 5: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors , 2003

http://public.itrs.net/

‘‘‘‘Red brick wall’’’’

http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html

Sony DRAM Roadmap #1

Page 6: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html

Sony DRAM Roadmap #2

Japanese METI roadmap

Page 7: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping

http://panasonic.co.jp/pmc/company/en/cc_0005.html

Panasonic Mobile Communications Roadmap

Page 8: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm

Display technology roadmap

“Untangling the future”, Paul Saffo, Business2.0, June 2002, www.business2.com

Technology convergence roadmap

Page 9: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

“Particle physics – roadmap to the future”, F. Giman, SLAC Summer Institute on Particle Physics, Aug. 2-13 2004.

Particle physics roadmap

Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision

Time

Market

Business

Product

Service

System

Technology

Science

Resources

Functional perspectives

(Roadmap

architecture)

Route(s) forward

Knowledge

types

When?

What?

How?

Push

Pull

Information

types

Drivers

Strategy

Needs

Form

Function

Performance

Solutions

Capabilities

Resources

Why?

Roadmap framework

(Supports integrated and aligned

strategic and innovation planning)

Key questions: 2) Where are

we now?

3) How can we

get there?

1) Where do

we want to go?

Typical

viewpoints

Commercial &

strategic

perspectives

Design,

development &

production

perspectives

Technology &

research

perspectives

Roadmapping: a general-purpose ‘‘‘‘strategic lens ’’’’

Page 10: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?” – Alice

"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to” – Cheshire Cat

"I don't much care where” – Alice

"Then it doesn't matter which way you go” – Cheshire Cat

Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland, 1865

2) Where are we now?

?

?

?

3) How can we get there?

?c) How can we do it?

?b) What should we do?

?a) Why do we need to act?

(When?)

?

?

?

1) Where do we want to go?

Time

Fundamental questions

Page 11: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Technology roadmappingTwo extremes

1. Market ‘‘‘‘pull’’’’- How to reach a goal?

• Planning

• Market focus

• Assumes product market opportunity

• Deterministic

• Convergent

• Customer driven

2. Technology ‘‘‘‘push’’’’- What opportunities could arise?

• Technology focus

• Looking for opportunities

• Open ended

• Divergent

• Intensive - Short term attack strategy

• Prompted by new business start, major strategic change or new competitive

threat

• Multidiscipline team meet several times to “complete” roadmap (and make

strategic decisions)

• Part of the Business Fabric - Culture driven

• Develop and maintain roadmaps as part of periodic team meetings

• Review roadmaps at periodic strategy checks and updates

• Use roadmaps to monitor and run ongoing business

Source:Richard Albright

ex-Lucent Technologies

Two styles of technology roadmapping

Page 12: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Planning horizon

Time

Uncertainty / risk of

prediction / investment

Short term Medium term Long term

Operations Innovation Strategy

qualitative focusquantitative focus

What to manufacture?

How many of each model?

What materials to order?

Which products?

Which markets?

What cost?

Which technologies?

New (?):

- Markets

- Products

- Technologies

- Capabilities

- Organisational structures

- Distribution channels

- Competition

Process funnel (e.g. strategy, new product development)

Requirements fluid

Concepts fuzzy

Many unknowns

Many options

Many assumptions

Few constraints

Scenarios

Requirements clear, stable

Concepts clear, stable

Fewer unknowns, risks understood

Fewer options, greater constraints

? ?

?

? ?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

Effort

Time

Divergent process Convergent process

Subcarrier function

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991Year

Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

PRODUCTS

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

Stereo Plus:

Scan

Seek

Plus:

Personal paging

Plus:

Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controls

A NEW SERVICE

Super Hi Fi

Local maps

Roadmaps provide a consistent framework throughout the strategic planning / innovation process

Explore Shape Plan Implement

Market-Technology, Summary-Detail

Iteration

Page 13: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Innovation

System

Structure

(taxonomy)

Scaleable

(hierarchy)

Portfolio

Scenario

STEEPI(Social, Technological,

Economic, Environmental,

Political, Infrastructural

Trends & Drivers)

Linking

grids

SWOT(Strengths,

Weaknesses,

Opportunities,

Threats)

Roadmapping & decision support tools

Porter’’’’s Five Forces

Foresight

Technology Intelligence

tMarket

Business

Product

Service

System

Technology

Resources

Valuation /

Balanced scorecard

www2.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/t_cat/index.htm

www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/dstools/

www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/dmg/tools/

www.npd-solutions.com/bok.html#anchor2114450)

www.valuebasedmanagement.net

www.managing-innovation.com

www.change-management-toolbook.com/mod/book/view.php?id=74

www.systems2win.com

www.roxanneoconnell.com/VIZ/index.html

www.visual-literacy.org/periodic_table/periodic_table.html

Matrix tools

Decision support

Design management

New product development

Value based management

Innovation management

Change management

Continuous improvement

Visualisation methods

Visualisation methods

Management tool resources

Page 14: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Software for technology roadmapping

www.sharpcloud.com

www.sopheon.com

www.lets-focus.com

Accolade Roadmapping

Technology roadmapping processBenefits

• Facilitate development and integration of new technology

• Support for strategy and planning processes

• Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology

• Provide top level information on the technological direction

• Support communication and co-operation

• Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge

• Support sourcing, resource allocation, risk management

and exploitation decisions

Page 15: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Willyard and McClees (1987), ‘‘‘‘Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’’’’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19

Groenveld (1997) ‘‘‘‘Roadmapping integrates business and technology’’’’, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55

EIRMA (1997) ‘‘‘‘Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’’’’, Working Group Report No 52, European Industrial Research Management Association, www.eirma.org

de Laat and McKibbin (2003), ‘‘‘‘The effectiveness of technology road mapping - building a strategic vision’’’’, Technopolis, Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Special journal editions on roadmapping (multiple company cases and academic perspectives):

• Research Technology Management, Part 1 - Vol. 42, No. 2, March 2003; Part 2 - Vol. 47, No. 2, 2004 (5 papers, including experience

from Domino Printing Sciences, General Motors, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, Roche, Rockwell Automation and Royal Mail)

• Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 71, No. 1-2 , 2004, nine papers

• International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2007, six papers, including Philips & Siemens

Guidance notes:

• Industry Canada: ‘‘‘‘Technology roadmapping in Canada: A development guide’’’’ & ‘‘‘‘Evaluating technology roadmaps - a framework for

monitoring and measuring results’’’’, http://www.ic.gr.ca/eic/site/trm-crt.nsf/eng/home

• US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,

July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/guide.pdf

Useful references & resources

www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/ctm/trm

Questions?

Page 16: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

‘Fast-start’ workshop methods and T-Plan approach

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Starting upthe TRMprocess

Developing arobust TRM

process

Roll-out ofthe TRMprocess

Keeping the TRM process'alive' on an

ongoingbasis

Other

Res

pons

e (%

)

Source: CTM survey, 1999

Roadmapping challenges

Page 17: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Roadmapping applications (250+)Sector / product• Industrial coding (x3)• Postal services (x10)• Security / access systems• Labelling software• Surface coatings• Medical packaging (x2)• Automotive sub-systems• Power transmission• Railway infrastructure (x3)• National infrastructure• Building controls• Road transport (x2)• Technical consulting (x15)• Automotive / Aerospace• Academic (x3)• Biochemicals• Satellite navigation• Food processing (x5)• Pneumatic systems• Emerging technologies• Automotive (x2)• Retail• Construction• Chemicals• Defence• Packaging (x4)• Packaging• Energy distribution (x2)• Defence• Satellites• Food processing• Sustainable development• Personal• Packaging (x2)• Energy systems• Aerospace• Metrology• Packaging• Biofuels• Consulting (x4)• Computational science• Electronic displays• Printing• Cognitive science

Aims- Product / technology planning- Integration of R&D into business; business plannin g- Product / technology planning- Product / technology planning- New product development process- Business reconfiguration- Service development & planning- Business opportunities of new technology- Capital investment planning and technology inserti on- Research programme planning- New product / service opportunity; business reconf iguration- Defining the national research agenda for the sect or- New product / service development, strategy- Corporate co-operation and synergy- Strategic planning- Research priorities / network development- Research priorities / network development- Research priorities / network development- Innovation strategy- Research priorities- Innovation opportunities- Business and product strategy- Global production strategy- Research priorities- Technology valuation- Technology development & exploitation, innovation, strategy- Sector level trends- Asset management strategy / technology strategy- Development of roadmapping system- Innovation opportunities & synergy- Product / technology planning- Regional network development (technology transfer & skills)- Life planning- Breakthrough cost reduction and innovation strateg y- R&D strategy & system development- Manufacturing technology strategy development- Research prioritisation- Sector trends and priorities- Regional research and policy prioritisation- Regional network development, research and infrastr ucture prioritisation- Research prioritisation- Technology strategy- Development of roadmapping system- Identification of application and innovation opport unities

Variety of sectors, companysizes and types, products and services and technologies

Variety of strategicbusiness goals and

contexts

S-Plan and T-Plan ‘‘‘‘fast-start ’’’’ workshop methods

Time

Level

Portfolio

Option

1c

Topic

1b

T-Plan

2

S-Plan

Landscape

1a

Page 18: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

3 PsPeopleto provide knowledgeexperience and insight

Paperto organise processand capture knowledge

Post-it notesand other stationery tofacilitate knowledge sharing

Planning(customisation checklist)• Context: focus, scope, aims and resources

• Roadmap architecture

• Process, including other tools

• Participants

• Workshop scheduling

• Integration: systems, tools, processes & information

• Preparatory work

Page 19: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Plan

ProcessArchitecture

dialogue

Business

owner

TRM process

owner

Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative proc ess

Domain

knowledge

Business need

Focus, scope, aims

Typical S-Plan workshop

Page 20: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

CentralResearch

Group(Europe)

BU 1(Europe Region 1,

Category A)

BU 2(Europe Region 2,

Category C)

BU 5(Europe Region 2,

Category A)

BU 4(USA,

Category C)

BU 3(USA,

Category B)

BU General manager

BU General manager

BU General manager BU General

manager

Aligning central R&D with business innovation in global packaging firm

Interfacemanagers

BU General manager

Roadmapping used to align R&D portfolio with

business unit innovation strategy

• To support the start-up of company-specific

TRM processes

• To establish key linkages between technology

resources and business drivers

• To identify important gaps in market,

product and technology intelligence

• To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap

• To support technology strategy and planning

initiatives in the firm

• To support communication between

technical and commercial functions

T-Plan aims

Page 21: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Workshop 1

Market

Workshop 2

Product

Workshop 3

Technology

Workshop 4

Roadmapping

• Performance

dimensions

• Market / business

drivers

• Prioritisation

• SWOT

• Gaps

• Product feature

concepts

• Grouping

• Impact ranking

• Product strategy

• Gaps

• Technology

solutions

• Grouping

• Impact ranking

• Gaps

• Linking

technology

resources to

future market

opportunities

• Gaps

• Setting up

the process• Managing the process

• Following on

from the process

T-Plan reference process

German

Spanish

Japanese Chinese (Traditional)

Chinese (Modern)

T-Plan guide

Page 22: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

time

Business /Market

Product /Service /

Production

Technology /Resources

Product features

Business / Market drivers

Product features

Technology solutions

TechnologyRoadmap

AnalysisGrids

Roadmap structuring and prioritisation

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

• Small (25 staff) software firm

• Used T-Plan to explore the development of a new

niche software product aimed at the Pharmaceuticals

sector

Softco case example

Page 23: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

1. Security

2. Validated software

3. Compliance

4. Services

5. Data management

6. Printing

7. Global solution

8. Flexible implementation

9. Softco requirements

10. User friendly

Product

Feature

Concepts

Market /

Business

Drivers

1. Time to market of drug

2. Integrity of trial

3. Cost of trial

4. Globalisation

5. Leading edge

6. Ease of use

7. Connectivity

8. Future proof

A. Reusability

B. No. 1

C. Time to market

D. M

otivation of staff

E. Improving bottom line

Market Softco

*

* 1 for difficulty, 2 for size

**

** Payback later

1 year after release

Prioritisation:

(scale of 10)

Major Pharmaceutical:

CRO:

9 10 7 6 1 2 6 5

9 10 10 2 8 4 7 75 7 9 6 10

4.5

1.1

4.9

3.8

3.0

9.5

2.5

10.0

2.7

5.2

Softco

4.8

4.2

8.3

4.1

10.0

9.9

5.8

7.5

0.8

4.2

CRO

5.5

4.7

8.7

5.0

10.0

9.6

5.9

6.8

0.7

3.2

Major

Pharmaceutical

Ranking:

= 1 = -1

ΣΣΣΣ Cell scores x Driver priorityNormalised: max score = 10

Example Market-Product grid (Softco)

1. Alliances

2. System architecture

3. Design

4. ‘‘‘‘Soft’’’’ technologies

5. Output technologies

6. Securing technologies

7. Core technologies (re-use)

Technology

Areas

Product

Feature

Concepts

1. Security

2. Validated software

3. Compliance

4. Services

5. Data managem

ent

6. Printing

7. Global solution

8. Flexible im

plementation

9. Softco requirem

ents

10. User friendly

*

* must have

** -ve re-use past, + re-use future

Prioritisation:

- from Grid 1

(scale of 10)

Major Pharmaceutical:

CRO:

Sofco

5.5 4.7 8.7 5.0 10.0 9.6 5.9 6.8 0.7 3.2

4.8 4.2 8.3 4.1 10.0 9.9 5.8 7.5 0.8 4.2

4.5 1.1 4.9 3.8 3.0 9.5 2.5 10.0 2.7 5.2

7.2

10.0

7.1

6.5

6.3

7.6

7.5

Softco

7.6

10.0

7.2

6.8

6.4

8.4

8.2

CRO

7.8

10.0

7.1

6.9

6.4

8.6

8.3

Major

Pharmaceutical

Ranking:

= 1 = -1

ΣΣΣΣ Cell scores x Driver priorityNormalised: max score = 10

* *

**

Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)

Page 24: Dr Robert Phaal - Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5P r o d u c t F e a t u r e s

Technology Areas

Other

Resources

Market /

Business

1. Security

2.Validated

Software

3. Compliance

4. Services

5. Data

Management

6. Printing

7. Global

Solution

8. Flexible

Implementation

9. Company

Requirements

10. User

Friendly

1. Alliances

2. Sys. Arch.

3. Design

4. ‘‘‘‘Soft’’’’ Tech.

5. Output Tech.

6. Securing Tech.

7. Core Tech.

Competitor

threat

Competitor

threat? Market

launch

Version 1

release Price: £10

-15K/seatLegislation?

User

rights

Time out

security levels

Digitally

signed labels

Audit

trail

Digital signatured

audit trail

Watermarked

forms & reports

Database

escrow

Biometric

passwords

Validated

Ver. 1

Validated

Ver. 2

Validated

Ver. 330

Protocol

design moduleRandomised

design package

Form

printing

Advanced

automationEnhanced

randomisation

Graphic

representation

of R&S phrases

User format-

ting tool

for forms

Multi-level

training

Upgrade path

for existing

users

User group

& conference

Global

support

Validated protocol

design module

Multi-language

database

Secure

archiving

Statistical

analysis

Billing &

inventory

management

Labelling

libraries

Printer

independent

XML data

format

Windows

printers:

PS / PCLS / PDF

Code 39 & 128

PDF 417

barcodes

Blinded

labels

Label

design

module

Other bar-

code typesLabel set

libraries

UNICODEInter-site

securityUser-docs

(EU lang)

Email

notifica-

tions

Web

enabledXML data

import / export

Far East

language

modules for UI

WAP

Customisable

EU lang

modules

for UI

Windows

platform

support

Multiple

platform

support

User-docs

(Far East)

Internet

compatible

Software

protection

User

documentation

Protocol

design wizardsOn-line

tutorials

Domain expert

partner

Network of

contactsLegal

expertise

Database partners

(harmonised phrases

& legislation)

Appoint

distributors

outside UK

Enhanced

network of

contacts

ERP

link

CH / JAVA / CORBA

component architecture

TCP / IP

CGI / ISAPI

A

spec.

Platform inde-

pendent design

Modular design

UML / OOD

Dev.

Team

stability

Mngmnt

team

leader

GNP

Validatable

procedures

(FDA)

Build

from

source

Test

plan

Develop

sales

model

eChem

tech.

ISO 9000

TickIT

Enhanced

report generation

24 hour

support

Internet

updates

Enhanced

development

team stability

Report

generation

Write once

technology

Scanning &

storage of

hand-written formsRapid &

Pipe ++

Raise

£ x millionRecruitment

software &

management

New

building

TA6 TA6TA6TA5

TA6

TA1

TA1

TA1

TA7

TA1

TA2

TA7

TA5

TA2

TA7

TA2

TA2

TAxlink to Technology

Area x=

Example first-cut roadmap (Softco)

Thank you

Questions?