WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HAVE IN STORE FOR L&D?Mark HarrisonWellington, March 2016

Introduction to Kineo and City & Guilds

If you went to the Learning Technologies 2016 Exhibition, you couldn’t avoid this…..

But all is not what it seems…..

….or this

Technological change outside L&D

Technological change inside L&D

v

WE SURVEY CLIENTS EACH YEAR AND THIS YEAR WE ASKED…

How have learners’

expectations changed?

What’s been the biggest surprise in the last 10 years?

What’s driving change in the workplace?

What’s the big challenge everyone is

avoiding?

What technology has had the

biggest impact?

What are your top priorities

for the future?

9

10

11

SO, OVERALL WHERE ARE THE TRENDS?

WHAT’S IN AND WHAT’S OUT?

OUT• Long courses• Single channel

delivery• Barriers to learning

and sharing• Top-down training• Inflexible LMS• IT barriers• Being protective of

knowledge• Measuring training

take up

IN• Making content easy to

find, accessible and relevant

• Support for social learning

• Supporting multiple devices and channels

• Design thinking and UX• Intelligent blends and

curation• Personalised experiences• BYOD• Measuring learning

impact• Tangible assessment and

rewards

14

These are all incremental changes and improvements.

Nothing earth-shattering.

But there’s one thing they did not come up with, that could create significant shockwaves….

15

October 11, 2009

16

Things looked bleak for the Angels when they trailed by two runs in the ninth inning, but Los Angeles recovered thanks to a key single from Vladimir Guerrero to pull out a 7-6 victory over the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Saturday.

Guerrero drove in two Angels runners. He went 2-4 at the plate.

“Yes, it probably was the biggest hit of my career. I’m dedicating that to Nick Adenhart, a former roommate, a guy that passed way in April.” Guerro said.

Guerrero has been good at the plate all season, especially in day games. He has hit five home runs and driven in 13 runners in 26 day games.

17

17

Students from Northwestern University Intelligent Information Library created

and

18

18

Look at this piece of their marketing blurb……

Isn’t that a bit like a lot of us in the digital content world do?Especially now we are creating just-in-time information nuggets.

19

19

20

It’s all about Moore’s Law combining with the exponential increase in software complexity and the advent of true artificial intelligence.

This will impact on all us just like the Industrial Revolution.

Everything will change.

But is L&D ready for it?

21

What WILL our world be like in the very near future?

22

How could learning experiences be better with AI?

TODAY

Couples Therapy Online – produced by Miami University and Kineo

E-learning PLUS Moodle LMS

23

ourrelationship.com

“The OurRelationship program was eye-opening and a fantastic experience overall. I was skeptical at first about an online program, especially one where most of the work was done separately from my partner.

But it is much easier to admit to myself, in private, that there are things I can change to improve our marriage. If we were doing it together in person, my pride might have made me resistant to admitting my role in perpetuating arguments. There was a good balance between solo learning and partner conversations.

Thank you for a great and very helpful program!” – Elsie

24

How could learning experiences be better with AI?

TOMORROW

E-learning PLUS Moodle LMS

PLUS VIRTUAL THERAPIST/COUNSELLOR ?

25

Where else could AI be used in learning?• Learning programmes that truly adapt to learner needs and learner performance

• Automatic assessment or grading

• AI tutors helping learners by offering ideas for improvement or flagging to real life teachers/trainers that the learner may be struggling

• AI assisted research tools that learners can use

• AI based ‘subject matter experts’ we can interrogate to help us create learning experiences

• Evaluation (via big data analysis) of where learning experiences could be improved

• AI enhanced robots to deliver simple training (which needs simple observational assessment and banks of specialist knowledge)

26

All NASA purchasing is done automatically by intelligent software agents.

Legal firm Baker and McKenzie use Global Merger Analysis Platform (GMAP) to provide a detailed analysis of the key risks in M&A deals within hours rather than what previously may have taken many expensive days

In Japan, robots run 262 Kura sushi restaurants, monitored virtually by a human. They also care for the elderly (‘Frank’ is already reality).

Momentum Machines robots produce 360 hamburgers per hour – toasts the bun, adds fresh ingredients individually to order:

“Our device isn’t meant to make employees efficient. It’s meant to obviate them!”

AI is being adopted fast

ALL DRIVEN BY COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

27

Hotel rooms will find their own customers – and will negotiate with the customer’s intelligent software agents on dates and prices.

Sales managers will have intelligent software agents that will check the activities of their team members and arrange calls with the team member’s software agent when something is out of the ordinary.

Like ‘Her’, if we can afford it (more of that later…), we will have virtual coaches/personal assistants who will interact with other agents wherever they are on almost everything we want.

We may not fall in love with them though.

Very soon…..

28

Exciting?

But for how many of us?

29

In 2009 a computer could write a sports report automatically.

By 2030 it is estimated that 90% of news articles will be machine generated.

It used to be safe job-wise, if you were smart, analytical, literate and hard working.

It isn’t now.

30

1. Those who drive, harness and exploit AI technology

2. Those employed in AI enhanced businesses, doing smart and AI related things!

3. Those who do things that AI haven’t (yet) reached e.g. Yoga or Forestry

4. The rest ie. those who do repetitive, predictable and analytical tasks – both manual and office workers

The world could be divided into four.

31

So, in your organisation, what are the activities that:

• Are routine?

• Require established knowledge?

• Follow a degree of rule-based decision-making?

• Require analysis and judgement rather than original thinking?

• Are done frequently enough to warrant automating?

32

From Frey and Osborne - Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology.

33

What about our L&D teams?

What roles:

• are routine?

• require established knowledge?

• follow a degree of rule-based decision-making?

• require analysis and judgement rather than original thinking?

• have sufficient numbers to warrant automating?

34

Want to have a key role in shaping this future?

Find out who is thinking about all of this in your organisation now and offer to help.

If no one is thinking about this yet, there’s a new opportunity!

35

We need to get ready to:

•Help in Change Management

•Re-train everyone for the new world

•Support those who will lose out in the new world

36

“ Workers will likely need to find vocations involving more cognitively complex tasks that machines can't touch. Those positions also typically require more schooling. It's a race between technology and education.”

Carl Benedikt Frey

37

“It’s a bit like finding true north in a digital blizzard”

38

A FORMULA FOR FINDING YOUR TRUE NORTH

• Keep an eye on what’s out there and get the big picture• Think about what’s useful to your business & learners • What’s within your capability? Try it out!

• Understand what your learners are like• Involve, encourage and support them to contribute• Work with the business to design learning that helps

meet business objectives• Measure impact to prove what works and increase

your credibility• Be aware of how your workplace has changed and

will change and get involved in that change, early!

39

Final tip?

The Turing Test is hard to pass.

Brush up those comms skills slides – it’s the only thing we might always do better than a robot!

40Good Luck – we all may need it!