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Copyright © 2014 Kinaxis All Rights Reserved.
Where did this all start? Trevor Miles – Kinaxis
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Copyright © 2014 Kinaxis All Rights Reserved.
Christoph Glatzel, Stefan Helmcke, and Joshua Wine,
Building a flexible supply chain for uncertain times, McKinsey Quarterly, March 2009
The Bull-Whip Effect from J Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961)
Central message:
End-to-End Supply Chain Visibility & Collaboration greatly reduces the speed and increases the accuracy of decisions
Current state of Multi-Tier Supply Chains
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Future State of Multi-Tier Supply Chains
• Bullwhip Effect
Jay Forrester, Industrial
Dynamics, 1961
• Demand-Driven Value Network,
AMR Research/Gartner, 1990s
– Key concept of
Demand Translation
– Multi-Tier supply commit
– Multi-Tier ATP
Why does End-to-End ATP matter? Lora Cecere
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 6
Today’s Supply Chain is
Traditional, Tactical and Cautious
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 7
e-Commerce Growing in Importance
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 8
Growing Complexity
Volume
Level of Predictability Predictability based on forecast accuracy vs Actual Order Profiles
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 9
Evolution of a Network
Demand
Signal
Accurate Weekly
Forecasting is ...
Delay from
Purchase to Signal
Managing Demand in a Value Network
* Represents emerging markets
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 11
Business Continuity Risk
#sciwebinar
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 12
Gaps
Multi-tier
ATP
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 13
ERP Not the Answer
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 14
• eCommerce and multi-tier visibility is growing in importance for all industries.
• We are managing networks with high variability that are poorly automated.
• The answer is not ERP.
Summary
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Seeing it in Action Kerry Zuber – Kinaxis
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Multi-Tier Supply Chain
Tablet, Laptop
NA_RDC
(Phoenix) (Laptop, Tablet
Orders)
SA_RDC
(Lima) (Laptop, Tablet
Orders)
EMEA_RDC
(Lisbon) (Laptop, Tablet
Orders)
APAC_RDC
(Tokyo) (Laptop, Tablet
Orders)
AmerCDC
(Houston)
EuroCDC
(Amsterdam)
NAProd1
(San Jose) (Tablet)
NAProd2
(Toronto) (Laptop)
EAProd2
(Oslo) (PC Orders)
EAProd1
(Kiev) (Tablet,
Laptop)
SC001
(Taipei) (Boards)
SC002
(Nagoya) (Screens)
SC003
(Hanoi) (Boards)
Supplie
rs
Custo
me
rs
PC Direct Ship
High Tech Products
- Tablets
- Laptops
- Servers / Desktops
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Automated Demand Order Scheduling Process
OE System
Unscheduled
Orders
Schedule Commit Dates
- Order Scheduling Rules
- User Responsibilities
- Exception Alerts
- Root Cause Analysis
- Collaboration/Option Analysis
RapidResponse
Schedule Exceptions
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Automated Order Scheduling Objectives / Rules
• Schedule orders automatically unless a business exception is identified
• Do not negatively impact existing delivery commitments for higher priority demands
• Base delivery commitments on the state of the extended supply chain and known constraints
• Meet customer request date if possible even when less than stated lead time
• Only suspend scheduling an order if ….
– ATP/CTP is greater than stated lead time and later than customer request
– Could establish tolerances for gap between request and ATP/CTP
– Could test for other conditions
• Quantity is greater than x
• High priority customers get supply preference
Rules and Objectives are Highly Configurable … Demo environment example:
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Demo
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Discussion / Q&A Audience | Lora | Kerry | Trevor
