Download - Venture Capital: A "spaghetti" perspective
Venture Capital:A “spaghetti” Perspective
Raffaele MauroHarvard University
November 2013MIT – Italian Start-up Week
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Who ? What ? Why ?
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The cognitive bias
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In startups, the big winners are big to a degree that violatesour expectations about variation. ……. we are just notprepared for the 1000x variation in outcomes that one findsin start-up investing.
Paul GrahamBlack Swan Farming
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a) Startups are cool but ….Flat investments in the last 5 years
b) Startups are cool but ….Italian VC investments/GDP are 1/6 of the
European average
Venture Capital Investments as % of GDP: Italy 0.004%; EU average, 0024%
c) Startups are cool but …it is not possible nor desirable to replicate Silicon Valley
Path dependence, geographical specificities
Multi-strategy funds
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Digital technology investors
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Incubators and nurseries
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Business angels
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Pre-seed and acceleration programs
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1- Smart money
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2- Staging
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3- Acceleration potential
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3 things to know
1- Team
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2- Market
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3- Innovation
But the reality is: 1) team; 2) team; 3) team.
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3 things to have
1- Burning customer need
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2- Execution
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3- Metrics / Traction / Customer validation
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3 things to show
The dangers – 1: Celebrity
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The dangers 2: some dumb, slow, fake investors
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The dangers 3: Provincial perspective / not doing the homework
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The dangers 4: Hot / bubblish industries
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Huge opportunities in hidden industries: enterprise software, medical technology,
food tech, robotics, etc. ….
Find the “secrets”
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A very key question that you should continually askyourself: what important truth do very few people agreewith you on?
Peter Thiel
Raffaele Mauro, Ph.D. (Bocconi, 2009)
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Raffaele Mauro is a venture capital professional with a passion for technology, policy and global finance. He is currently Empedocle Maffia Fellow and MPA candidate at the Harvard Kennedy School, venture intelligence advisor at P101 Ventures and junior fellow at the Aspen Institute. Raffaele is also board member at Plain Ink, strategic advisor at the American Chamber of Commerce in Italy and member of the executive committee at the Global Shapers Hub - Milano, a World Economic Forum community.
Previously he was Senior Associate at Annapurna Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on early stage investments in web services and mobile applications, and advised OltreVenture, the leading italian social venture capital fund. In the past he worked at Bocconi University, Collegio di Milano, Harvard Business Review-Italian Edition and various branches of Confindustria, developing projects related to innovation, entrepreneurship and finance.
Raffaele attended the Singularity University Graduate Studies Program at NASA Ames in 2011. He obtained a Ph.D at Bocconi University in 2009, with a dissertation on ICT business history, and graduated with honors in Economics.
Raffaele writes for Aspenia, the policy review of the Aspen Institute - Italy, and LIMES, the major Italian journal of geopolitics. He is co-founder of the social think tank “Lo Spazio della Politica” and became part of the “Young European Leaders – 40 under 40” cohort of 2011.
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The dotcom bubble
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