Download - Understanding the Impacts of Drought Restrictions

Ricardo-AEA

© Ricardo-AEA Ltd

www.ricardo-aea.com

Aaron Burton

CIWEM Annual Conference April 2014

Understanding the impacts of drought restrictions

© Ricardo-AEA Ltd Ricardo-AEA in Confidence 2

Background to 2012 Drought


A weird drought?

Terry Marsh and Simon Parry, “An Overview of the 2010-12 Drought and Its Dramatic Termination” (2012), http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/20083/.

http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/20083/

http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/20083/


Aims

• Obtain a clear picture of the impact of TUBs on various customer

groups

• Help fill the knowledge gap on impacts of TUBs and link to wider

EA / Defra work

Objectives

• Impacts of restrictions

• Recommendations on collecting and sharing data in the future

and reducing conflict with customers

• Assessing bounce back

Published UKWIR WR01A

Aims & objectives of UKWIR research

http://ukwir.forefront-library.com/reports/14-WR-01-13/97186


Top down approach

• Water into supply – leakage & statistical modelling to determine impacts of restrictions

Bottom-up approach

• Quantification of survey responses for volumes

• Property level metering

Comparison of approaches to assess

restrictions


Communications


Stakeholder survey


Messaging (domestic shown in graph)

© Ipsos MORI

Messaging and information sources

38

21

19

19

18

14

13

11

8

5

5

2

2

2

1

1

*

20

17

TV

Word of mouth (e.g. neighbours, family, friends)

Local newspaper

Information sent directly to you by your water company

National newspaper

Local radio station

National radio station

Internet

Posters in local area or on transport

Letter sent directly to you by your local council

The website of your water company

Through politicians

Through environmental / wildlife charities

Facebook

Posters at work

Other

Twitter

Can't remember

None of these

% who heard from thissource

Any source: 63%

Q17: In which, if any, of the following ways did you see or hear information

about the 2012 drought or the hosepipe ban?

Base: All respondents (1003)

Interviewed online from 26 July 2013 to 7 August 2013


Understanding of TUB restrictions (non domestic shown below)


Behavioural impacts of TUBs on consumption

4

2

72

68

15

11

4

5

6

14

Gardener (54)

Window cleaner (288)

% Increased a lot % Increased a little

% Stayed about the same % Decreased a little

% Decreased a lot % Don’t know

Q15: To what extent, if at all, did the frequency with which you use a mobile

car valeter/ window cleaner/ gardener change during when the hosepipe ban

was in place in 2012?


Public attitude to future use of restrictions

35

7

4

5

8

6

4

3

2

3

3

3

3

29

23

19

18

15

15

11

11

7

5

5

4

4

9

27

32

23

23

21

36

28

19

15

15

20

18

20

36

39

41

43

53

42

49

63

68

64

65

65

7

7

6

13

12

6

6

9

8

9

13

8

10

Fill or maintain a pond which contained fish (72)

Water new outdoor plants (805)

Water established outdoor plants (805)

Water new lawns or grassed areas (756)

Clean a dog or other domestic animals (205)

Fill or maintain a paddling pool (156)

Fill or maintain a pond which did not contain fish (63)

Water established lawns or grassed areas (756)

Fill or maintain a water feature/ ornamental fountain (98)

Clean paths or patios (810)

Clean other outdoor surfaces e.g. decking or roofs (1003)

Clean a motor-vehicle(s) which was for private use (774)

Clean outside walls or windows (1003)

Very serious (%) Fairly serious (%) Not very serious (%) Not at all serious (%) Don't know (%)

Q12a: How serious, if at all, would a ban on using a hosepipe for the following

activities be for you and your household?

Base: All respondents who have this feature in their property – bases shown in brackets

Interviewed online from 26 July 2013 to 7 August 2013


Data analysis


Example for London Water Resources Zone


Comparison of percentage of properties exhibiting

high flow events (Thames Water)

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

London 3am to4 am

Thames Valley3 am to 4 am

London 6 pm to11 pm

Thames Valley6 pm to 11 pm

Perc

en

tag

e o

f p

rop

ert

ies e

xh

biiti

ng

hig

h

flo

w e

ve

nts

Apr-June 2011

Apr-June 2012

Apr-June 2013


• Demand 1-2% lower than forecast in lead up to TUB

implementation – not statistically significant

• In the run-up to TUB implementation maximum decrease was

6.5% of forecast

• Maximum decrease was 10% during TUB implementation

Comparison with top down analysis

Angela Wallis, IWA Efficient 2013 Conference, Paris


Australian comparison and considering bounce -

back

922

801742

667 666

549 536 554 551

697762

400

600

800

No restrictions

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

Level 5

Level 6

High Level

Medium

Level

PWCM

No restrictions

Mea

n ob

serv

ed d

aily

tot

al w

ater

pr

oduc

tio

n (M

L/d)

“Target 140” TV campaign launched,

shower timers distributed, high water

users letters distributed

CA Beal, A Makki, and RA Stewart, IWA Efficient 2013 Conference, Paris


Water Sensitive Communities

CIRIA WSUD Scoping Study http://www.ciria.org/Resources/Free_publications/Water_Sensitive_Urban_Design.aspx

http://www.ciria.org/Resources/Free_publications/Water_Sensitive_Urban_Design.aspx

http://www.ciria.org/Resources/Free_publications/Water_Sensitive_Urban_Design.aspx


• Principle 1: Ensure a consistent and transparent approach

• Principle 2: Ensure that water use restrictions are proportionate

• Principle 3: Communicate clearly with customers and the wider public/users

• Principle 4: Consider representations in a fair way

Selected Recommendations


• TUBs appear to have reduced consumption

• Bottom-up analysis provides further detail on individual measures, how these

were understood, and potential impacts on business

• A range of recommendation to inform drought and water resources planning

• Further research

– Longer running end use analysis to observe changes in wider water use

during TUB periods and linked to communication/ behaviour change

programmes

– Apply statistical approaches to account for rainfall to bottom-up meter data

– Permanent water efficiency measures – preference for longer term lower

impact TUBs observed in Australia

– Water sensitive cities approaches – how can we address flood risk and

drought over the long term?

Conclusions and further research

© Ricardo-AEA Ltd

www.ricardo-aea.com

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W:

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@AaronBurton1001

Aaron Burton

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www.ricardo-aea.com

Thank You

Download - Understanding the Impacts of Drought Restrictions

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